Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
surely managing bias that might exist in the act of purely gathering information is enough to deal with, without the extra pressure of managing the straight up comment and opinion on panel shows with non-ABC jouro’s and talking heads.
by middle man on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:25 pm
Technical point if if I have the NBN and wifi – is the download speed via wifi the same as the download speed of a computer ‘hard wired’ to the NBN? Just asking…..
by Rossmore on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:28 pm
fiona – yes, I did get the wrong end of the stick thinking it was your daughter your were helping with her course. Got mixed up after your recent editing job for her.
It is great when they finally get into a work situation – they bloom beautifully. We’re now watching our g/kids do it and it’s fascinating.
by BH on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Psyclaw
Agreed the GG sends a message tothe propriate house asking for the allocation of funds. The GG acts on the advice of the government which may not instruct him/her to send such a message.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Ha ha Qld – that’s what happens when you do a professional foul.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:32 pm
This apology issued by the ABC to Morrison is a smurfing disgrace. The ABC board should hang their heads in shame. Now it is, apparently, unacceptable to call out politicians’ racist behaviour on the ABC, even when the politicians have previously demonstrated themselves to be racist.
Is it totally smurfed.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:32 pm
Guytaur #2194, is that anything to do with this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbrjRKB586s
Good soundtrack for a rainy night worrying about a world with 6 degree temperature rises and consequent sea level rises that my boys may well see in their lifetime the way we are going.
Back to the topic: I’ve been enjoying the process of exposure of all the poisons lurking in Murdoch’s mud, of course. But I am getting worried that the more compelling the case becomes for regulatory action here in Australia, the more viciously the Murdochracy (followed by their dimwitted or ill intentioned followers at their ABC etc) will seek regime change to ensure that no such thing happens. Views?
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:32 pm
Shows,
I am borrowing your smurfs. Thanks.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:33 pm
Rossmore
I am not sure. But i would argue that hardwired is less likely to incur interference and degradation. I suspect that if you are downloading right next to the router, it would be the same.
by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:33 pm
Yes. Buy the right wifi gear and you won’t ever look back.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:34 pm
I have a 100 mbit modem now, too fast for my 30mbit cable connection.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:34 pm
But fine for networking between three PCs.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:35 pm
spur212
yes – and isn’t it great to see Combet getting stuck into abbott’s lies over the past week or so. they are going to do him slowly. I just hope Gillard can hang in there – she’s been looking so strong and confident and ‘Prime Ministerial’ – at some stage someone in the media is going to notice that she has grown into the role. Unfortunately, most of them subscribe to the ‘she can’t come back from this low’ – they forget ‘Mr 17%’ Howard and how shaky he looked before Tampa, 9/11 and the playing to the Hanson xenophobes. Really unfortunately, most cannot see Ms Gillard as ‘Prime Ministerial’ because she doesn’t have the dangly bit they think (consciously or sub-consciously) PMs should have. I sense Labor is hitting its stride, but worry that Rudd will do everything he can to see labor defeated if they don’t give him the job back. The only way past this impasse may be for Gillard to step aside for someone else. Combet would be great, but I doubt the right factions would give it to him.
by sustainable future on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:36 pm
BB,
Loudly and with spaniel-hurt-eyes.
Yep.
by fiona on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:36 pm
sustainable future
Precisely my thinking
by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:39 pm
MM
Oh the memories!
Couldn’t hear well for near on two days after seeing Plant & Page.
Mean as catshit too, especially Page.
by Dee on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Concern Troll.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Does anyone know if Gareth Evans voted for Paul Keating in either (or both) of the 1991 leadership ballots?
by ShowsOn on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:40 pm
BB
Concern troll?
by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:42 pm
Bushfire – whatyamean ‘concern troll’? I love your writing and politics and am deeply hurt!
by sustainable future on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:45 pm
sustainable future
Vote No.1 Combet ! Oi Oi Oi.
by poroti on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:45 pm
New most senior strategist position for P.M available… bludgers should apply immediately.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/06/13/nick-reece-ups-sticks-from-pmo-heads-to-melbourne-uni/
by joe2 on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Ahem, are these guys tough or what?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-13/eunuch-spiders-fight-off-competition/4067866
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:48 pm
ajm
Andrew Elder is excellent at critiquing Abbott and the problems of the modern Liberal Party. We share similar opinions, particularly in regards to Abbott on issues like IR (he doesn’t believe in deregulatory IR reform, but gets rolled internally and succumbs to peer pressure in the media). I agree with him that Abbott is unelectable, but I think for this to become evident to the average voter, the ALP need clean air and to define him properly (based on his DLP, protectionist, inconsistent views) and I’m pessimistic about this happening, mainly due to the uncertainty and fear clouding the electorate right now.
In fact, IR is a classic example of where the ALP and the union movement have got it very wrong. They should be splitting Abbott from the middle. Instead of a workchoices fear campaign, they should declare victory and praise Abbott for ending the Coalition’s obsession with deregulatory IR reform. This would simply be too much for most Liberals.
The ALP needs to target Deakinite, moderate, small L Liberals rather than the blue collar, manufacturing, unionised base.
by spur212 on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:48 pm
I’m quite sure that, come what may, Gillard will not step aside for anyone. If some how she was deposed, it would be bloody, and a disaster for the govt. Its one of the reasons I think it will never happen.
by Leroy on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:48 pm
why the surprise, Vic?
by joe2 on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:50 pm
tom_watson@tom_watson
Good on him. Clegg: Hacking was a failure of corporate governance: http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg-tells-leveson-inquiry-hacking-was-a-failure-of-corporate-governance-7848076.html
by Schnappi on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:50 pm
Marrickville M – I think Murdochia will become more desperate for regime change. Abbott looks more desperate lately, almost feral, and he hasn’t delivered as promised – surely the plan was for Slipper and Thomson to be gone by now and an election imminent. It’s too late for that now and I am banking on Bob Carr to settle down the nervous nellies in the Labor Party.
I’m more concerned about the precedent the ABC has set today. If it is OK for a journo to have to apologise to Morrison then most of them have to apologise to the PM for all the inane comments they make about her – Marius Bensen included.
by BH on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:51 pm
joe2
Fair enough.
by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:53 pm
I’ve met him when he had a role in Victoria, didn’t particularly impress me, so no loss. Chance to get someone better.
by Leroy on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:54 pm
spur
Very high risk I think
They are – education, environment, productivity, tax reform, etc. Who else do you think these policies are aimed at?
by ajm on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:54 pm
“Technical point if if I have the NBN and wifi – is the download speed via wifi the same as the download speed of a computer ‘hard wired’ to the NBN? Just asking…..”
bB Yes. Buy the right wifi gear and you won’t ever look back.
So Hockey was being very, very economical with the truth?
by Rossmore on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:56 pm
Spur – I think I see a real point in this. It would have to be a really big play to get the right words out of Abbott. I’d also get guarantees about other controversial issues, aguarantee re no nuclear power stations and no changes to the GST for starters.
by BH on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:58 pm
The big build-up and then…
Sorry, it may be just that I’m a sensitive soul. But I HATE this defeatism talk.
She’s there. She’s PM. She’s staying. Right?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:59 pm
sustainable future
The dilemma is that changing to a third leader (even a true statesman like Combet) institutionalises the problem. Rudd is the only opinion as it addresses the issue of the original injustice and repudiates a lot of the internal stuff that’s come up in regards to the factions and union’s control over not just the ALP machine but the federal government.
by spur212 on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:00 pm
Just as if they want to really get the ABC they should use the “disgraceful” way that poor Scott Morrison was treated as the lever.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:01 pm
See what I mean?
SS has got them off and running again.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:02 pm
Future football:
And now, Sony gets the ball. He handpasses it to Telstra, who kicks it to Harvey Norman. But no! Virgin Jetstar cleverly intercepts, and he’s kicked it all the way back to Arnotts…
by zoomster on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:02 pm
BB
You gotta give to the concern trolls. They’re getting a lot more sophisticated. Training at Menzies House must have been ramped up
by ajm on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:02 pm
Fiona plesse not spaniels
by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:03 pm
BB
Your are right.
Let’s see some fight from ALP supporters.
Hire a spine if you have not got one.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Spur 212 Despite commending Elder, you omitted to acknowledge his closing comment
Julia Gillard will lead Labor to victory at the next Federal election. The government has a message and she is starting to give her voice to it. People are wary, holding off for some consistency that will lead to a bigger picture, a picture in which their own role becomes clearer. Messaging professionals who turn away from Labor’s recently poor record and who admire Abbott’s “cut through” are themselves missing the point, and failing in their own role as communicators.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/
by Rossmore on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:06 pm
ajm, BH
It’s actually quite a low risk strategy. The reason is because it creates the internal dynamic within the Coalition that brings pressure on Abbott. If he stays with it, the Coalition are neutered. If he succumbs to peer pressure, he leaves himself open.
If they were winning the small L Liberal vote, they’d be in a lot better position in the polls. The problem is they’ve gone too far on things like the “fair go” and collective bargaining rather than promoting entreprenuership and achievement
by spur212 on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:06 pm
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/how-to-sack-20000-queenslanders-or-more-20120613-209a1.html
by joe2 on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:07 pm
Oh come on… even I can see that had the Coalition embraced the possibilities presented by the hung parliament… been conciliatory but strong… been passionate… driven an argument or cause through the noise (as Gillard has had to)… then not only would this have benefited governance but also their standing and capacity with Independents (of conservative roots) who hold the balance of power.
Who knows what may have transpired with the cumulative impact of the Rudd/Wilkie/Slipper/Thomson scenarios etc.
As a Labor voter, if the roles were reversed and my party had the option to represent me and half the electorate by negotiating Labor values into legislation in a hung parliament, but didn’t, I would be extremely disappointed.
The question remains: do Coalition supporters, particularly those motivated by politics, feel disenfranchised by their parties’ choice in this ‘once in a hundred year’ political circumstance?
by Gecko on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:07 pm
Leroy
Will be interesting to see who takes up the vacancy.
by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:08 pm
And bloody tedious it is to.
by joe2 on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:08 pm
I see no-one has commented on the story about the self-castrating spiders. There has to be a political metaphor in there somewhere.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:10 pm
Fiona @ 2263
he’d have to hide his smirk first.
by psyclaw on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:11 pm
We have satellite b/b. Desktop in back office with a wireless modem so that I can use the laptop in front of telly in another part of the house, even the kitchen. I couldn’t understand how it would work but IT nerdy son said ‘don’t worry Mum, just accept that it will work’ and it does. Speeds seem to be the same. No cables – bewdiful so I’m now thinking of getting rid of desktop, leaving laptop on desk and buying a pad for elsewhere in house.
Joe Hockey should be called on all that ‘wiring’ talk.
I can’t remember whether it was Puff or SK who gave me the idea of using laptop in kitchen to search for recipes. It’s a fantastic idea and I’ve now been able to turf a pile of old recipe books which were taking up too much space.
by BH on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:13 pm