Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
joe2. that article from brisbane times was a great read. i see they are doing articles based on info from public servants/insiders… should be interesting. I’m sure there will be plenty Newman upsets who will want to dump on him.
by middle man on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:13 pm
If the strategist who’s resigned from the PM’s office has been in charge of getting the message out for the past 18 months, then good riddance.
by Burgey on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:14 pm
BB. you’re right about the Govt using the horrible way Morrison was treated as the catalyst for reining in the ABC.
by middle man on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Sustainable Fututure,
Don’t worry about it , the fact that you have probabily voted labor
since Holt doesn’t count arround here.(I voted him off the island.)
It seems to be the right to change your mind with one little vote that gains attention here.
by Pipe Fitter on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:15 pm
spur
Have to agree to disagree as this will have to be my last post for the night. I think he’d just counterattack by saying that he believes in fairness but the government’s legislation is too complex, etc. He’d say all he’s really trying to do is make the system work better but we need him in power for this to happen. The whole strategy would slide off his back and the rest of the coalition would keep their mouths shut.
In short, the government isn’t going to win by being tricky – it’s got to win by being determined.
And so to bed!
by ajm on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:15 pm
not sure if posted alreday, but ABC MDMark Scott gave interesting speech tonight
https://theconversation.edu.au/abcs-mark-scott-defends-against-groupthink-attacks-by-the-oz-7637
by sprocket_ on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:16 pm
i’m completely bemused by this ‘war’ between the Filth and the ABC. how can the Filth attack the ABC, if all the ABC does is repeat meme and lies from the Filth?
by middle man on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:17 pm
2293
joe2
How to sack 20,000 Queenslanders (or more)
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/how-to-sack-20000-queenslanders-or-more-20120613-209a1.html
Hmmm, reminds me of the Kennett template. A tragedy for the loyal public servants that will be dumped. And with the number of families affected, probably consequences for Federal voting intentions in QLD. Similar story in Victoria where the Coalition Gov is imploding.
by Rossmore on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:18 pm
I’m fairly low-tech. What’s the short answer on how Ipads etc work under the NBN?
I accept in advance that the answer is probably glaringly obvious.
by Aguirre on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:19 pm
Puff – seeing that I have suffered 2 redback bites (cruel) in my life and 2 other unknown spider bites I have arachnophobia so that photo was a right turn off but I do think the ABC castrated itself today.
by BH on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:19 pm
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/how-to-sack-20000-queenslanders-or-more-20120613-209a1.html
The first comment, brings back k memories
by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:23 pm
Aguirre@2308
The same way they work now.
by ShiftyPhil on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Looks like the PM will be on Sunrise tomorrow.
by Leroy on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Aguirre
as they do at present.
My iPad works – away from home – via 3G.
At home, it picks up the home wireless (which is, of course, like all wireless, beamed from a fixed source, in my case an NBN satellite connection).
Which is just as smurfing well, because under the tender ministrations of Telstra I don’t get 3G at home, so go smurf yourself, Joe Hockey.
by zoomster on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Aguirre I think it’s this.
If you connect the iPad to the net via a home wi fi set up, provided your modem is good quality with high download capability (thanks BB) then NBN should provide a massive boost to download and upload speed.
If you have a sim card it’s not affected by the NBN (I think) but speed should improve significantly once 4G is rolled out and the iPad software is updated to work with 4g in oz (I think) – but note I’m no geek
by Rossmore on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:26 pm
BH
I remember that discussion. When redoing my kitchen I am designing a laptop area in it for that reason. I always thought the pc screen on the fridge door was a great idea, I don’t know if any were ever made.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Its a bit like.
An umpires decision,
If an umpire sends some one off from a team
Then if b team does the same , umpire realy has to send of b team member.
You would of thought the libs would of thought of that.
by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:28 pm
I genuinely hope you are right and I think this is looking truer every time I see her face down the media and other fools at present. BUT (and I’m not feigning any ‘concern’ or being a troll – just being realistic) she really is up against it, and Rudd is a vindictive egotist who will white-ant. IF her numbers do not improve she may have to step aside. Rudd is not an option at all – I’m not in that camp at all- I’d decided he was a nasty fraud and creep long before he got what he deserved. I’d love to see Gillard do a ‘sweetest victory of all speech’ in 2013, but at present I can’t see the media giving up until she stands aside. Sorry to bring out the Ruddestoration crowd – I hadn’t realised they’d gone away. they are deluded fools. As a Greens member (that’ll fire you up – I was Labor left, but labor went too right AND has Marn’ as a ‘left’ powerbroker), we’d see our vote peak even without St Bob if Labor were silly enough to go back to that phoney.
On another tangent – do you think the Grattan Institute raised changes to GST so Labor can hammer the threat of a Coalition federal government when all the states are likely to be coalition too?
by sustainable future on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Clegg obviously does not understand the Murdochs. Firstly, the use of the term “governance” just mystifies things. Hacking was an intended consequence of their production system. Breaking the law was a deliberate choice, not an aberration. If there has been a failing of governance, it has been to allow Murdoch to accumulate so much power. They should be stripped of their assets and imprisoned.
by briefly on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:29 pm
ShowsOn
3 June 1991 (66 votes for BH to 44 PK) – Evans probably voted for PK given the events around the second leadership ballot?
12 Dec 1991 (56 votes to PK to 51 BH) – Evans was part of a deputation of Hawke’s ministers along with Kim C Beazley, Michael Duffy, Nick Bolkus, Gerry Hand and Robert Ray who advised BH to resign. The leadership ballot took place on 20 Dec 1991. Evans was unable to attend this second ballot as he was overseas at the time.
by Pegasus on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:30 pm
ajm
You underestimate how ideological the Liberal Party are on IR reform. Many Liberals believe the party has no reason for existence if their leader isn’t advocating for some sort of IR change. This is one of those issues where Abbott is in the minority in his own party and the ALP have failed to take advantage of it by playing to the base
by spur212 on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Thanks all.
Hockey baffled me with his bullsmurf a bit. His talk about cables dragging from cars gave me the impression that 3G or 4G was going to be superseded in some way. Didn’t sound right to me.
by Aguirre on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:31 pm
To those with ipads etc re: NBN.
They will work as normal, if you have a Wireless Router you can hook up ipad etc with the router (make it secure WPA2 etc!).
by zoidlord on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Yes, that is a good one.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Good on you, Oakey. I can’t work out how Greg Hunt has allowed himself to be so compromised.
Puff – lucky you, I have to scrounge bench space for the laptop but it’s great – especially when OH can browse to see what he feels like. Ah, the life of retired husbands
by BH on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:33 pm
I take it Hockey doesn’t have the foggiest what he’s talking about then? And that his rebuttal to Delimiter was more about “I was misinterpreted” than “I was right?”
by Aguirre on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:34 pm
Rossmore
My view differs from Elder’s on Gillard as I think the internal situation within the ALP has been damaged beyond repair by public beliefs around what happened on June 24th 2010 and the fact that Gillard has been defined and narrowed and being blamed by the electorate for pretty much anything that goes wrong in the country. Not to mention the fragile situation within the ALP organisation (he tends to stay out of internal ALP issues and focuses on how screwed up the Coalition are)
by spur212 on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:35 pm
I dont mi nd
Ss chatting about options
But i think any decision like that would be the decision of the pm only.
But the way things are now shaping up i doubt it s on her mind,
But i dothink that julia gillard always has the people and labor at the top of her look after list
I admire her tremendiously as a pm and a beautifull caring lady.
by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:38 pm
BH
I have a good solid wood 2nd hand kitchen sitting under the carport. $1100 including cost of removal from a soon-to-be-demolished house and delivered to me. Less than 5 years old, about 10k worth and enough cupboards to do kitchen laundry and bathroom.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:39 pm
It’s just strategy. Aunty was nobbled by Howard. Last thing filth will do is admit it. Therefore they conveniently pretend she is lefty and continue to beat her up, regardless of how grovellingly Scott, the butler, serves them.
by joe2 on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:39 pm
No. This overrated think tank raised expanding the GST because they think its a good idea to do so while cutting income tax & company tax (and stuff the poor). They certainly don’t work to help the ALP in any way. The speed with which journos used the half baked report to to claim there’s no national leadership should give you a clue. it The only members I know anything about lean to the right. I know it was set up at least in part by ALP governments, but you wouldn’t know it.
by Leroy on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:39 pm
https://theconversation.edu.au/abcs-mark-scott-defends-against-groupthink-attacks-by-the-oz-7637
sprocket – thanks for the link. I’m a bit stunned myself at how quickly it’s all gone so badly for newsprint. Even tho I gave up papers a few years ago I didn’t expect so many others would but we didn’t bank on accessing info through mobiles, pads, etc. Nor did we expect such a downward drop in quality in newsprint.
Top piece today on it from Michael Gawenda
http://t.co/Plopk4LH
by BH on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Spur
On my drive by list though
by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Pyne says SA after 1 july will have highest electricity prices in the world,anyone know different?
by Schnappi on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Pyne says SA after 1 july will have highest electricity prices in the world,anyone know different?
by Schnappi on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Aguirre
I think his reply to Delimiter is just further proof he really has no idea what he’s talking about.
I used to have similar exchanges with a Lib minder – he thought he knew everything there was to know about broadband, but really didn’t understand it. I knew I didn’t understand it, so I kept checking with experts, and it soon became apparent to me that – because he thought he knew it all – he didn’t, and much of what he was saying was total fluff.
I have the same feeling with Hockey’s rebuttal. I don’t know enough to actually be able to argue with much of what he says – although I’m more than a little miffed by his attitude that the cities are going to be fine, and 4G will solve everyone’s problems, given that my area will eternally be a Telstra blackspot – but it ‘feels’ like someone who thinks they know what they’re talking about but actually doesn’t.
by zoomster on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:41 pm
As BB said earlier, get some fight into ya. As I said ealrier, if you have to, hire a spine.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:42 pm
How would Pyne know, when did he last pay an electricity bill?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:43 pm
its the magical and painless Co2 tax.
by rummel on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:43 pm
House of Commons’ Speaker channeling Harry Jenkins in trying to keep the House in order.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Here’s a good response to the Grattan Institute report, tucked away in the SMH today. The positive press a few days ago was huge.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/too-high-a-price-for-growth-20120612-20822.html
by Leroy on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:44 pm
BTW link http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=10883&player=windowsmedia
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Hmmm….here’s a horrid set of thoughts.
Plausible or am i over the top with this?
Libs in NSW have reneged on the Pacific Hwy funding. Want the Feds to pay for most, rather than the agreed half.
Feds are starting off an NDIS scheme, that is based on the States applying the resources that they are currently putting into disability support, into the NDIS.
NSW is cutting its Workers Compensation scheme which is essentialy about supporting people with disabilities of various levels and seriousness
Is it possible that the States may see an opportunity here to try and dump Workers Comp payout responsibility onto the incoming NDIS??
Would be a low blow, but….the State Premiers are generally Fiberal after all??
by imacca on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Lateline says NSW electricity prices to rise by 18%, flicks immediately to a segment of Combet saying “that’s exactly what it was planned to be”.
Except that’s not the truth, only 9% of the price rises are carbon oriented. Agenda much?
by confessions on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:45 pm
ShowsOn
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=12432
Gareth Evans was a member of the Labor Unity Faction, I think.
by Pegasus on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:46 pm
dismal economic news
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-13/retail-sales-in-u-s-fall-for-second-month-signaling-slowdown.html
by briefly on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:46 pm
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Economic-Forum-Julia-Gillard-talk-fest-business-co-pd20120613-V7SL6?OpenDocument&src=sph&src=rot
This may help work out mr kohlers tweet re abbott this evening
by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:48 pm
I am not sure this was in W’s script…
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jwxpQqraDkzxdu2unLa7WKd8Ie7w?docId=245ad4ed66514de9bc2a5cf3569aad98
by Laocoon on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Spur 212 I think you are channeling (quite unintentionally) the MSM lines. That’s precisely what they want you to believe. I think they are wrong, but have boxed themselves into a narrative they can’t extricate themselves from until there is some kind of circuit breaker. Steady improvement in Labors 2PP will help and we are seeing subtle shifts in the analysis. The next stage will probably be a symbolic moment when one MSM journo plucks up the courage to really press Abbott on one of the many inconsistencies in his position. This moment will come to be known as Abbott’s Great Unhingement.
by Rossmore on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Yesterday I did a series of interviews with a variety of small and medium sized business people. Most said they are doing it tough at the moment, almost as tough as during the GFC. The business confidence survey from NAB yesterday carried the same message – the index is at a three-year low. Consumer confidence surveys tell the same story.
Is this real or is it imagined? Is it all because certain people (whose initials are Tony Abbott) are talking the economy down?
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Economic-Forum-Julia-Gillard-talk-fest-business-co-pd20120613-V7SL6?OpenDocument&src=sph&src=rot
by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:50 pm