Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
The numer of spin woud also be relevant.
Do you have a note from your Mum for being off school today?
by muttleymcgee on Jun 14, 2012 at 9:50 am
mate. like most people i’m at work. his presser will pass by like the hundreds before that go unnoticed.
by middle man on Jun 14, 2012 at 9:51 am
numer = number
by muttleymcgee on Jun 14, 2012 at 9:51 am
Good on you Burke. Claiming past Labor success as foundation of today’s success.
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 9:52 am
No mention in the papers of the “dirt unit”. I don’t believe it actually exists. It would be a made up story by the Libs to counter the perception of negativity and dirty tricks they play.
by Lynchpin on Jun 14, 2012 at 9:53 am
mm
The only take out from people in my circle in the past few weeks, is interest rate cut and the compo received for carbon price.
Only political tragics care about the minutiae
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 9:53 am
Would Abbott confirm that no Coalition staff engage in similar info gathering?
by Leroy on Jun 14, 2012 at 9:54 am
Also the latest charges against Lance Armstrong are featuring heavily in today’s news
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 9:54 am
Victorians are more interested in this:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/liberal-donors-win-big-from-rezoning-20120613-20am6.html
NSW still getting over Origin win.
Qld interested in origin loss and Baden Clay case.
“Dirt Unit” is a non issue.
by Lynchpin on Jun 14, 2012 at 9:56 am
I really wish that when ministers do pressers, we could hear the journo’s questions better.
by imacca on Jun 14, 2012 at 9:56 am
Vic
Who is leaking?
I don’t know. Someone who had a grudge against the guy that just left? Could be a lowly staffer, but its pretty ballsy for a junior person to do it.
I doubt its someone who simply wants the government to run a loftier agenda.
Maybe the Rudd camp are getting nervous with the timeline. It doesn’t feel like that though.
by bluegreen on Jun 14, 2012 at 9:57 am
Burke doing a good presentation. Certainly not running from questions or issues. Look and learn MrRabbot.
by imacca on Jun 14, 2012 at 9:58 am
Terror headline
Julia Gillard at centre of global ‘super week’
That is the coverage for the PM in Western Sydney. No mention of dirt units.
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:01 am
SNAP Boerwar
my thoughts as well…
you really are an ignorant troll TLM.
creating marine parks is the best thing which could happen for the human users of our oceans, along with the creatures and corals which live there. This initiative is justified on environmental grounds alone, but the economics are:
- boost to enviro-tourism. Just listen to the Cairns based head of Australian Reef Tourism Operators on ABCRN this morning. Boatloads of 250 well-heeled tourists going out to the Coral Sea, now to be protected
- the marine parks are hundreds of kilometers offshore, so near coast fishing not affected
- fish spawning and growing areas protected. recreational fishermen will love the increase in fish numbers which spill out of the protected areas
- according to Burke, about $100m in compensation to commercial operators affected. Compare this with the billions being thrown at brown coal polluters.
Interesting to see that Abbott and Hunt (so far) have left the political beat up to Ron Boswell
by sprocket_ on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:01 am
Last night, I forsook Leveson to watch the HoC debate on whether Hunt misled Parliament re his dealings with BSkyB; a fascinating, committee-style debate unlike any I’d ever seen, inc any time I managed to get into HoR in session.
How easy it is now to access stable-transmission UK HoC streaming on a much bigger “screen-window” that I can get for ours! Yet, but a few months ago, when the HoC broadcast, internationally, its probing into the phone hacking scandal, access was often difficult, screen tiny & unstable, buffering slow, drop-outs common. Such a difference in so short a time! As more access opened to global audiences, IT was modified (eg time-lag problems & screen size fixed); illustrating current & evolving HS-BB’s power!
But international IT’s real power lies in people’s ability to compare and contrast their government with other nations’. Last night offered a comparison between not overly effective Speakers trying to cope with increasing rowdiness and accusations; as well as a significant contrast in manner, tone & “substantive authority” (ie evidence-backed) -nothing resembling Abbott & Co’s jealous, unsubstantiated nastiness. But they were reactions of someone used to Parliamentary democracy.
That transmission would (via smart phones to many pro-democracy demonstrators) be available across N Africa and the Middle East, further fueling not only the struggle for democratic laws and governments, but Internet searches that can demolish propaganda, censorship, and give access the world’s information; access not readily available or affordable before ubiquitous mobile internet access via this century’s technology.
Internet, IT “convergence” and access to communication, all information, and global access to diverse models, paradigms, points of view and education, are liberators – at personal level as well as en masse – unequaled in world history.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:03 am
sprocket_ & boerwar
You are forgetting the TLM will adopt any position to criticise Gillard. If the announcement had been the government was abandoning marine park expansions, he would be here crowing about a possible split with the Greens.
You are completely and utterly wasting your time debating him on the issues. Any issues.
by Leroy on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:08 am
Excuse my ignorance but why is the baden Clay case of big interest in QLD?
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:13 am
There is a must-read article by Mr Sheridan in today’s ‘The Australian’.
Naturally we need to discount his usual anti-Gillard raves. For example, it turns out that Australia’s lack of influence in Libya is the fault of the Gillard Government’s response. It is the usual sort of neocon war mongering blame-shifting, essentially doing the Pontius Pilate for destroying a stable Libyan Government and replacing it with an unstable, murderous anarchy of war dogs let of the leash. So, nothing new there.
But then Mr Sheridan provides, IMHO, the best summary of the situation in Syria that we are likely to see in an Australian newspaper.
If you have any interest in the Middle East, it is fascinating, nuanced, stuff. There are some lugubrious moments. It turns out that Al Quaida elements are joining the fight against the Assad regime. What? Isn’t the West spending trillions in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to get rid of Al Qaida? Isn’t the West, through the Saudis, providing arms and support for the Syrian rebs?
We on the same side as Al Qaida.
Mr Sheridan is silent, as the Australian MSM generally is, on the interests and active role of Israel in what is happening in Syria.The reality is that Iran and Israel are both the elephants in the Syrian room. OTOH, we read plenty about the role of Iran in Syria. Thus the reportage is unbalanced.
The proxy fight in Syria matters to Australia because it is linked to the struggle for regional hegemony between Israel and Iran. The fate of Syria is linked to the possibility of yet another gulf war, triggered by Israeli bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities. This might just be enough to turn the GFC into the global economic armageddon it has been promising. In this sense, the Syrian bloodbath is a side-show of the real thing.
OTOH, Mr Sheridan is quite blunt and overt about Syria being all about destroying Iran.
However, for me, the real interest in the article is personal. It is Mr Sheridan’s abject, hand-wringing despair. His article finishes with:
‘The West has never been less able to influence an outcome. The portents are all bad.’
I take it this means that Mr Sheridan is acknowledging that the neocons are not going to get a western invasion of Syria.
Perhaps Libya, two Iraq wars, the prospect of yet another oil/gulf war with Iran, and an ongoing war in Afhanistan, have finally taught the west something worthwhile.
by Boerwar on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:14 am
All the Independent Australia HSU articles gathered in one place. At first it was just gossip, but once the primary documents started rolling in, its got a lot more interesting.
http://www.independentaustralia.net/jacksonville/
by Leroy on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:14 am
Leroy
Never a truer word written.
but I was thinking of posting something on marine parks anyway because it is such a good idea for Australia to be doing. In the days we had bi-partisanship on this stuff (B.A), the arguments would be about the boundaries and the balance – not the politics and whingeing.
Fran Kelly this morning asked Bourke wtte “won’t this hurt you politically in WA and QLD where you are doing badly anyway?” Says it all.
by sprocket_ on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:15 am
vic. brisbane murder mystery. husband of murdered woman arrested this morning.
by middle man on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:16 am
Couple of articles from the Global Mail worth a look, especially the second one for those interested in CSG & related issues.
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/your-politics-stink/269/
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/the-race-to-mine-the-hunter-valley/268/
by Leroy on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:20 am
sprocket_
All people need to do is see what the Kiwis discovered years ago about such reserves. The science is in the whingers are wrong.
You might like to listen to this discussion at the Royal Society featuring Professor Jonathan Gardner and Professor Bob Watson
http://www.sas.ac.uk/videos-and-podcasts/politics-development-human-rights/importance-marine-reserves-and-marine-protecte
by poroti on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:20 am
Peter Costello a raconteur?
Have you ever heard him speak?
The only things I can recall him whining, sorry, raconting about were how badly Howard treated him and what a genius he was in setting-up the Future Fund.
BTW it still surprises me how mant people still thing that Fund is some sort of Sovereign Wealth Fund. It ain’t. It’s simply a Fund set-up to specificlly fund the future Superannuation entitlements of Federal public servants. There’s nothing visionry about it at all.
by smithe on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:20 am
mm
Thanks
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:24 am
Boerwar, sprocket et al.
This has already been proved in Victoria, AFAIK.
It’s important to post these things so that the “lurkers” also get the information.
by lizzie on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:26 am
… is probably the other reason why it being leaked now.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:28 am
*it IS.
Brain working faster than the fingers
by Danny Lewis on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:28 am
Oh shit! I HATE this.
The point is that we don’t NEED this extra land developed yet and it is extremely poor planning in every sense. No matter what the experts say, greed wins.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/environment/conservation/protection-for-threatened-species-scrapped-20120613-20axf.html#ixzz1xistLV00
by lizzie on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:30 am
@WestWingReport: In #Ohio – of course a critical swing state – Pres. will deliver what WH calls the first major economic speech of the general election
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:30 am
@latikambourke: Link to maps+video of Australia’s Marine Parks MT @Tony_Burke: @latikambourke http://t.co/JmAH7SC4
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:31 am
smithe
You could add that Costello didn’t bother about making provisions for all that unfunded public service super until the very last moment. It would be a much bigger fund if he had had the balls, the energy and the intelligence to set it up in the first year of the Howard government, but he chose to loll around in his hammock for a decade before getting around to it.
The media seem to push the idea that the fund is just some sort of rainy day cookie jar that can be dipped into whenever the government needs a bit of cash. I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve heard ‘Why don’t they just use the Future Fund to…..’
by leone on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:34 am
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2012/s3524756.htm
Amd what’s wrong with any of that? Keeping records of something someone has said on record or done is pretty standard operating procedure isn’t it? It’s not like they’re making stuff-up.
It was the SMH that broke the story as to how kind Sophie had been to Old man Howard wasn’t it? Not the ALP. Sure, they’re no doubt following the story closely, but wht shouldn’t they?
by smithe on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:34 am
Shock Horror save this article about the NBN: http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2012/06/14/3524848.htm
by zoidlord on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:34 am
Did anyone see the PM on Sunrise this morning?
by Leroy on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:36 am
That’s with minor coverage in the article – not as much as Lowy Institute’s Mark Thirlwell, who says G20′s “credibility was damaged following the Cannes summit in 2011″ … followed by over half the article’s length and substance. One lousy RW Think-tank’s self-important member who thinks his views are paramount! No rebuttal of his claims; not even a balancing view from someone with greater credibility in the area!
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/breaking-news/julia-gillard-at-centre-of-global-super-week/story-e6freuyr-1226395187494
My impression is that this was a pander to the PM & Treasurer, framing the opinions of Mark Thirlwell – not a name I associate with Australian “Movers & Shakers” – or anything, to be honest, even among those I associate with RW Think-tanks.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:37 am
Leroy
No. Never watch the morning programs
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:37 am
Vic
Mrs Baden Clay (I think a former Miss Qld, and global HR director of a big company) went missing for 10 days. She had 3 daughters under 10. Found dead on a river bank. Small community. Well known people. Her husband was charged with murder last night. The Baden Clay’s lived in an outer suburb of Brisbane.
by Lynchpin on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:37 am
Vic
Mrs Baden Clay (I think a former Miss Qld, and global HR director of a big company) went missing for 10 days. She had 3 daughters under 10. Found dead on a river bank. Small community. Well known people. Her husband was charged with murder lst night. The Baden Clay’s lived in an outer suburb of Brisbane.
by Lynchpin on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:38 am
Lynchpin
Appreciate the info. Was curious because seems to be a great deal of interest in the case in Qld.
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:39 am
One for the whinging fisherman I heard on the radio this morning and one reason you may not hear Abbott and co say much.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14188-barrier-reef-notake-zones-see-leap-in-fish-numbers.html
by poroti on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:40 am
Scott Morrison And The Streisand Effect
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:41 am
just read the ABC story on ‘dirt file’. are they kidding?? someone needs to tell the journo what an actual ‘dirt file’ is… thats hilarious.
i hope Dirt File’s across the country ask Mark Scott for an apology for the ABC insinuating they are in fact Generally Available Public Information Files.
by middle man on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:45 am
Greens Senator Rachel Siewart Presser response to Marine Park Announcement coming up News 24
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:46 am
mm
It is hilarious stuff
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:46 am
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:46 am
smithe
I hasten to point out I was quoting a newspaper report!
Going by Kruger, having Costello ranconteuring at you is enough to make you want to chew off a limb…
by zoomster on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:50 am
Nice surprise in my bank account this morning,and that dickhead thinks we will not mind him trying to get it back
by Schnappi on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:52 am
Fairfax update: It’s fine to scrutinise Coalition members, says Gillard
As if the Opposition and many individual members don’t have dirt files on ALP, Green and Indie members – especially on Indies Windsor & even more so on Oakshotte, both of whom & their families have copped the brunt of vicious Opposition spite since Sept 2010.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:53 am
Yes leone. And those cookies are bit soggy thease days, ever since Coissie forced the Future Fund to buy-up all those Telstra shares he couldn’t otherwise flog on the open market.
It may get it’s money back.
Eventually. Maybe.
by smithe on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:53 am