Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
davidwh
News Ltd not carrying it that is most of the papers.
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 2:49 pm
davidwh
That ABC headline was the subbie’s summary of the story. Not necessarily the truth.
by lizzie on Jun 14, 2012 at 2:51 pm
I don’t want to believe Lance Armstrong might be guilty of doping – that’d be a huge kick in the guts to millions of fans if such a thing was proven.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 14, 2012 at 2:51 pm
News probably think it just too hypocritical for them to highlight organisation operating a dirt unit guytaur. Best leave it to the cleanskins.
by davidwh on Jun 14, 2012 at 2:53 pm
lizzie if it’s bad for Labor then I just accept it as read.
by davidwh on Jun 14, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Michael Pascoe asks a very good question.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/qantas-who-ran-down-the-roo-20120614-20bvt.html#ixzz1xjxQzNzF
by poroti on Jun 14, 2012 at 2:55 pm
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/brough-confirms-hell-nominate-for-lnp/story-fn3dxity-1226395631321
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 2:58 pm
poroti
Don’t know why I feel so sentimental about Qantas, but somehow :sobs:
by lizzie on Jun 14, 2012 at 2:59 pm
davidwh
‘S OK – I know you’re a good guy underneath.
by lizzie on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:00 pm
This requires serious thought – not.
All shadow ministers who have denied anything would be popped straight into the apropriate ministry.
You know it makes sense – Abbottsense.
by lizzie on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Sometimes you lot speak in a short-hand language all your own (especially you Guytaur). Combine that with Twitter-speak then sprinkle Tinyurl hundreds and thousands over everything and it makes for an utterly unintelligible series of posts.
What’s going on at the Daily Telegraph blogs?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Mal Brough confirms he’ll nominate for LNP to run against Peter Slipper – so nobody sees a conflict of interest in his dealing with Ashby.
by The Finnigans on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:05 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/australias-official-digital-visionary-conroy-20120614-20bip.html
Well done Minister Conroy.
by Lynchpin on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:07 pm
The finns
Not at all!
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:07 pm
BB
Easy. Guytaur was saying that dirt file story only appearing in the Tele. davidwh responded by saying it was reported at the ABC and Fairfax
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:08 pm
I do… It stinks to high heven.
by rummel on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:08 pm
The finns
Is there going to be moar!!
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Mirabella did say on local radio during the last campaign that she accepts climate change is real and at least to some extent caused by human behavior (took a lot of work to get it….)
by zoomster on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:10 pm
rummel
Please try to cultivate a sense of irony – I Know you can
by lizzie on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:11 pm
I do enjoy Mr Switkowski’s chutzpah.
He writes an article in todays’ ‘The Australian’ headed ‘If a carbon tax is the answer what is the question?’
Now, I must admit to deliberate ignorance. Once I saw the byline, I skipped the article.
But I do have a suggestion for another article for Mr Switkowski:
‘If Fukushima is the answer, what is the question?’
by Boerwar on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Did Kate Jones have a conflict of interest when she was pushing the Newman smear in the lead-up to the QLD election? Probably yes but no more or less than any conflict of interest Brough may have.
It’s how politics is played out apparently.
by davidwh on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:12 pm
zoomster – Under the theory a few comments above Mirabella’s a shoo-in for aged care.
by CTar1 on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:12 pm
This is just incredible. It’ll look awfully worse if Ashby crashes and burns, which I expect he will… he doesn’t seem to have the staying power, I mean: suing the government because someone said he looked fat in a polo shirt? That’s not Big time tough enough for the Federal Court and half a dozen silks all going at him.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:13 pm
davidwh
Surely you dont believe what you just said?
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Liz
I support the libs, is that not enough?
by rummel on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:14 pm
“If Ziggy Zwitkowski is the answer, what is the real answer?”
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:15 pm
davidwh
Brough will get away with it to a certain degree. His problem is going to be if Slipper is still seeking reelection next time around.
It would then not be a walk in.
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:15 pm
rummel, straight to the trophy room with this:
by Lynchpin on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:16 pm
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/world/look-out-its-snakes-on-a-bus/story-e6frev1i-1226395607370
Lucky they weren’t pythons is all I can say.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:17 pm
A Leveson preview
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2159012/We-blundered-Murdoch-bid-PM-tell-Leveson-gives-evidence-Inquiry-today.html
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:18 pm
rummel
Lovely
by lizzie on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:18 pm
HAHAHA Tony Abbott on 97.3 at 3pm -said “This is to be expected, Dirt File by the Gillard Goverment”.
The fact that it was QLD LNP that had their own Dirt File shows the Hypocrisy of the Coalition Supporters (including Rummel – infact, especially rummel).
by zoidlord on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:18 pm
@2942 – everyone is presumed innocent until proven guilty by the law – doesn’t stop anyone making their own assesment based on the available information about the likelihood of their innocence or guilt.
If we wanted to push the hard line of everybody is completely presumed innocent then we wouldn’t have Bail or Remand.
by Compact Crank on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Now, Mr Ashby – and I remind you that you are under oath – DO you look fat in that polo shirt?
by zoomster on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Victoria I am just having trouble understanding where people here draw that line on moral principle and outrage. It seems to be a very selective and flexible line in the sand.
Guytaur I agree it will very much depend on outcomes from the Slipper matters and personally I don’t have sufficient information to make a call. Brough’s involvement can range anywhere between genuine assistance and sinister but we don’t really know. Having said that I don’t think Slipper has a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the seat as an independent if he decides to contest the seat.
by davidwh on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:21 pm
What complete and utter bollocks. Bail and Remand serve completely different purposes.
by Lynchpin on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:22 pm
So I was wondering why the Abbott on 3pm is due to Asby/Thompson case.
Try a distraction shall we, rofl.
by zoidlord on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:22 pm
davidwh
Manufacturing a scandal is very different indeed
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:22 pm
davidwh
I agree. But the stuff surrounding Ashby and Brough won’t mean Brough is a shoe-in either.
by Lynchpin on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:23 pm
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/coalition-anger-over-mal-broughs-role-in-the-peter-slipper-claims/story-fndckad0-1226348902072
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Reading that article makes you remember just how well regarded Gillard was by the public and the press before June, 24 2010.
The whole leadership change really screwed up her political career.
by ABC gone to hell on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:27 pm
It is no coincidence that the Brough story comes out a day before the Slipper case
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:28 pm
The NBN is good policy.
by Tobe on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Interesting. Expectations of Abbott are so low I guess one possibility is the public’s view of him might imrpove in time. A scary thought. Or is it more likely than not that a
can’t change his spots?
by Lynchpin on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:31 pm
sorry victoria you are assuming Brough was involved in manufacturing a scandal which isn’t proved as yet. In fact we still have both criminal and civil actions undecided at this point. At least with Newman we had the CMC decide on the matters involved and yet Labor continued to prosecute the smears after the CMC findings. In fact even after QLD voters ruled in the most emphatic way possible I still read comments here from people continuing to prosecute the smear.
In terms of equity I know which circumstance stands up more justly. That mystical line in the sand seems to be very erratic.
by davidwh on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:32 pm
From WA State politics:
http://www.smh.com.au/wa-news/opposition-turns-up-heat-on-health-freebie-claims-20120614-20cd4.html
Good to see the HSU doing something positive.
by Lynchpin on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Just looked back at the last 12 articles listed by the ABC’s Alexandra Kirk .
All slanted negatively at the govt and a free ride for Abbott – I don’t think even the Murdoch papers are this biased
Abbott pounces on Labor’s ‘dirt unit’
Labor ‘dirt unit’ unleashed on Opposition
Abbott seizes on Labor leadership speculation
Government under pressure over cattle stunning
Labor divided over single mothers budget cuts
Welfare groups attack plan to cut parental benefits
Thomson lawyers push to keep report private
Senator urges tax hike amid miners’ ad blitz
Miners launch new anti-tax ad campaign
Fair Work may table HSU report
Abbott demands Craig Thomson report be made public
Labor soul-searching after Bligh’s smashing
by Rex Douglas on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:34 pm
davidwh
It was a tactical disaster for the ALP. The day Bligh admitted they didn’t have enough to carry through these claims was one of those critical turning points in the campaign. The rest is history.
by Lynchpin on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Brough is being investigated by the Qld Police and CMC over the Sunshine Coast Mayoral elections. If he is not cleared in all of these matters his nomination will be ignored.
LNP HQ have stated nobody being investigated by police will be considered for pre-selection. Peta Simpson will be selected.
by ruawake on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:36 pm
BB #2979, I think I’d rather have a crate of wine than a krait wine …
As for python wine, there’s this of course : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbOZccv9ym8
“This is not a wine for drinking: this is a wine for laying down and avoiding”
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 14, 2012 at 3:36 pm