Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Something that is so serious the member’s vote becomes tainted?
How delicious.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:21 pm
I took it as a dig at the coalition, which has zero focus on policy, and all focus on mud-slinging and digging up dirt.
by confessions on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:22 pm
someone has to broadcast for the lib staffers for when there in town.
by rummel on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Hey Mod Lib, what were the polls back in Jan 2010, can you remember?
by Centre on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:23 pm
TH
Who knows, but it does seem over the top that the Libs feign outrage that the govt has a “dirt”file. Why does it even matter?
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:23 pm
bemused
I do agree the degree of bias can be overstated. e.g. The dirt file stuff being talked up by the anti Labor forces tonight.
However until change comes to make the media be less right wing and anti progressive by legislating news be news and opinion just that. Then that overstatement will continue.
Only accurate fair reporting can fix that bias question.
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:24 pm
A lot of bluster and not much substance from Cameron so far IMHO.
by BK on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:24 pm
Just remind me who you had as leader of the ALP at that time?
by Mod Lib on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:24 pm
bk
Yes indeed.
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:25 pm
snap!
by rummel on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:26 pm
That story on upskirting was not completely quoted. Makes a little difference. The tag line was “to see if she has balls” AFAIK.
I think most PBers (with honourable exceptions) agree that she has, metaphorically speaking.
by lizzie on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Guytaur
Fred Chaney was a liberal that at a pinch an ALP supporter might even vote for. He held about 5 different Ministerships in the Fraser government and was LOTO in the Senate after Hawke won in 1983.
He did not seek re-election at the time of the sweetest victory of all.
Until about 4 years ago he was head of the National Native Title Tribunal.
Chaney was one of those rare beasts ….. a Liberal with a heart. Undoubtedly he would now be Abbott’s nemesis.
by psyclaw on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:27 pm
BK
I am sure Cameron could talk his way out of a wet paper bag
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Tom,
Tis is gettinnng fishier than Pecks Paste. Who has been up to what, i wonder?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Nobody that I’ve seen has expressed these sentiments. Even Labor’s most staunchest supporters here admit that things are rocky.
OTOH willing Abbott’s demise simply because you think MT will be poised to resume the leadership is truly delusional when you look at what is really happening in the Liberal party today. The party will only move on from its present denial when it loses the 2013 election, which I still think it will. And even then MT, being connected to the Howard era as a former Howard Cabinet Minister, will in all likelihood be overlooked for the leadership in favour of someone who truly does represent a break from the past.
Then again, stranger things have happened, and perhaps after the election loss, the party will turn to MT as a symbol of healing the rift.
by confessions on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:28 pm
2010 think that was when libs changed to their 4th leader in 4 years
by Schnappi on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:28 pm
Touche rummell.
by confessions on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Am I on the right blog? I haven’t accidentally ended up on some other politics blog have I?
Hehe?
by Mod Lib on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Boerwar, thanks for alert on the evil Ballieu government’s “whats an extinction here or there” earlier today. Here’s another depressing one: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/hello-hello-birdnappers-steal-talking-macaws-20120614-20ckp.html
Hope the macaws are safe of course but WTF are these birds doing in a pet store in the first place? Is this suddenly the USA where every selfish cretin can have pet tiger, alligator, anything you like?
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Schnappi
Abbott voted hisself as leader in December 2009.
by psyclaw on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:30 pm
The best thing for the Liberal Party would be to lose the next election. They just might, in the aftermath, save their party.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Clarke and Dawe destroyed Abbott on 7:30. Total ridicule.
by BK on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Mod Lib on the other hand…..
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:31 pm
leveson back
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:31 pm
…yes, you can note the time as it was when Lib polling headed for the stratosphere.
by Mod Lib on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Is ShowsOn due about now?
by CTar1 on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:31 pm
{Abbott voted hisself as leader in December 2009]
Nah, abbott got elected with slippers toxic tainted vote
by Schnappi on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Dan,
I said ‘creatures’, I never mentioned conservatives.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Why do so many business heads want a review (upwards) of the GST? Is it because they earn so much that it won’t personally affect them?
by lizzie on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:33 pm
lizzie:
That may be so, but it’s still offensive. So-called upskirting isn’t something that should be encouraged through mainstreaming the practice via jokes about our politicians.
by confessions on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Cameron steadily building up the “I don’t remember” tally.
by BK on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Disgraceful interview by Leigh Sales with Stephen Smith tonight.
Not only rude and hectoring, but lacking any knowledge of Smith’s actions and attitudes when the original report came out.
It seems like it’s now standard ABC procedure to just take an opposing view and just not listen to any answers.
When Smith persisted with his answer, she got exasperated and was impatient to move on to the next ‘gotcha’ opportunity.
by Swing Required on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:34 pm
guytaur @ 3405
The point with the dirt file stuff that mod lib and others have correctly identified is that the PM should leave that to others and not get involved or have her office easily linked to it.
It is stupidity of the first order.
by bemused on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:35 pm
BK
Can you remember who you spoke to on May 3rd 2009 and what was discussed?
by Mod Lib on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:35 pm
And Rudd’s polls dived from Jan 2010.
Let’s go back to the polls in 2003, do you remember what they were then Mod Lib?
Let me give you a clue; Latham had a 5 in front of his 2PP and Howard had a 4.
by Centre on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Doyley 3379
B.B. 3389
Yes, the Crean quote was fairly obviously cropped, Crean looked to be in full flight & this bit was selected.
ABC Adelaide gave the story as much time & criticism as they obviously think Abbott merits. Abbott himself with that vile “more in sorrow than in anger” mien with a reflective pause in the middle.
by BSA Bob on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Schnappi
I was thinking pustulant.
by CTar1 on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:36 pm
i thought smith did well.
by rummel on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:36 pm
@BBCWorld: Seven-time Tour de France winner #LanceArmstrong is banned from Ironman France after doping allegations http://t.co/RGLtBSBb
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:37 pm
No, but Blair, Brown and Major seemed to be able to on most occasions.
by BK on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:37 pm
BK
Did I mention Clarke is a Sheepen Shagger ? Goooo Fred Dagg. I mean if it weren’t for your gumboots where would you be ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tAWwqKNI7g
by poroti on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Businesses do not pay GST (as they can claim it back 100% via BAS returns).
The tax increase would be lumped entirely upon their customers/the public. Who gives a shit about THEM?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Is this station a community radio station or ABC?
by BH on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Smith indeed did well, but you would think Sales would have been aware of Defence’s criticism of him for acting so decisively at the time.
Sales was ‘accusing’ him of a cover-up!
Pathetic lack of research or knowledge.
by Swing Required on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:39 pm
bemused
I disagree. It is not stupidity of the first order for the PM’s office to be on the lookout for such things on the public record. The stupidity is in calling it a dirt file.
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Burke’s International Headlines are starting
@BBCRBlack: Australia’s new marine reserve http://t.co/yu9VnH96 causing excitement among marine conservation types at #Rioplus20
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Centre @ 3313:
No he doesn’t. First, she’s a good, loyal girl (his words). Secondly, she is eminently squeezable (his actions).
by fiona on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:40 pm
BK:
I suspect Cameron, and all PMs have had many conversations with important people.
I am not sure what you mean when to make a note of the fact that this witness has said several times that he “doesn’t recall”. If I was asked a thousand questions about conversations I have had over the last decade, I would be surprised if I could remember the details for more than about 1% of them….then again, I mostly talk shite as you know!
by Mod Lib on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:40 pm
BK @ 3421
I thought so too.
I was wondering why no-one had commented earlier and then I remembered, most don’t watch 7.30 because it is so terrible that they can’t stand it.
You and I are obviously made of sterner stuff.
by bemused on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:40 pm
confessions
Of course it was bloody offensive.
by lizzie on Jun 14, 2012 at 8:40 pm