Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Tricot: While 1 July is Implementation Day, what’s more interesting is the impact of what happens between Parliament’s rising for the Winter Recess on 28 July and reconvening on 14 August; June’s last Sitting Day’s being traditionally marked by a Dash to Jetliners for “Fact-finding Tours” (N Hemisphere Summer, a big consideration if you live south of the Murrumbidgee).
Take off the Thursday night or Friday, and you’ll be in London for Wimbledon Finals Weekend; and (though I haven’t checked 2012′s) UK’s F1 Grand Prix the following weekend, and this Olympic Year’s Festival of London! Of course, you’ll have time to fact-find, meet-and-greet between them and the Olympics – and all the fun that goes with them – and OZ v Poms ODI series, and horse races, and Henley Regatta etc.
Here in Oz, Winter’s Silly Season is full of bleary-eyed locals who sat up all night watching tennis, FI GP, Olympics and cricket, wishing they weren’t cold and at home! So what will dominate the News: paper, online, radio, TV? The colour of Abbott fluro vest in today’s CP-scare effort? Ashby and Thomson sagas? The PM’s clothes and bum? Yeah. Right.
Meanwhile, with the Government and PM Gillard still in power, there are 6 Sport-filled weeks which might precipitate convenient national amnesia re political journos’ earlier pronouncements.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:17 am
It iought to be amazing that with all the complexities in public policy over which wise heads might stumble, that an agnostic PM has stumbled over what to call committed realtionships between homosexuals.
It’s crashingly simple. Recognise those relationships that would be marriages if people of the opposite sex were involved as marriages even if both parties identify as the same sex. It’s not rocket surgery ((c)BarnabyJoyce)
It seems to me that the only possible explanation for this one is the need to keep the support of the remaining RW Catholics in the ALP power structure for her leadership. Pandering to Joe de Bruyn rather than simply doing the right thing … hmmm
Now personally, I don’t see any value in marriage as, for me, it’s purely for religious folk, and I’m not religious. That however is my opinion, and if others see it differently, and see value in it then I can see no good reason why they ought not be accommodated. This is one of those rare things where you can award a right to one person without taking anything tangible away from anyone else.
This is why Gillard found defending her position so hard. There was no credible defence for anyone who is not insistently religious and philosophically conservative. As an agnostic and ostensibly a “progressive” she has no ground to stand on and her “deep belief” seems as shallow as the pool one sees in the lane behind the pub when someone has slipped out to relieve himself.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:18 am
Interesting performance from the PM last night.
She appeared relaxed and affable showed her sense of humour and was impressive until the Gay Marriage issue arose.
Her comments re her own relationship were open and honest but there is a point of difference that stands her apart from members the gay community.
She can choose to marry her partner if she wants. Members of the gay community cannot do that.
Like c@tmomma earlier I think the mood in the room changed after that.
This issue is growing in momentum and in my view is past the point of no return. I wish she could shake off the influence of the Right and come to grips with that.
by MTBW on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:18 am
That Coroners finding into Lindy Chamberlain is going to be broadcast live. On News 24 and I imagine a lot of other outlets.
by guytaur on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:18 am
It is not hair splitting. Given her parlous position, Ms Taylor would probably prefer Australian newspapers not to align her interests wrongly with Seif rather than the ICC.
At least one Middle Eastern publication and the Guardian are capable of avoiding that error.
by shellbell on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:21 am
bluegreen – really? Do you think that it’s a winner? Perhaps a tie in to “innocent till proevn guilty”.
by Leroy on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:22 am
Fran
Great minds…………..
by MTBW on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:23 am
On Live Shots from Coroners Court Lindy and Michael Chamberlain sitting together. Aiden and other boys there too.
by guytaur on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:25 am
I really can’t understand why people want the PM to lie about her beliefs.
I thought one of the issues people had with her was lack of trust. I can’t see how coming out and saying something she doesn’t believe in will help there.
OK, so you can’t understand why she believes what she does. There’s a whole raft of beliefs other – sometimes quite rational and intelligent – people have that I can’t understand.
I don’t think they’re being dishonest or irrational because they don’t think the way I do.
All I want is for them not to impose their views on me.
Which is exactly Gillard’s stance. She has a personal belief about something. She would be uncomfortable acting against that belief. But she is not trying to impose that belief on anyone else.
Those who want to see gay marriage passed through Parliament should focus their efforts and their anger on the Libs. If Abbott allowed a conscience vote, the legislation would sail through Parliament.
Without that, it’s irrelevant how the PM votes; any legislation will struggle to get up.
by zoomster on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:27 am
Fran. For me, as soon as the State, acting alone and without any religious connection, began to sanction marriage it become (at times) purely secular. And under this condition I can see no reason for the State to prejudice its own citizens. Especially as sexually and financially we ackonwledge same sex relationships. But for whatever reason we hold from them the legal expression of their emotional attachment. Seems petty and a bit mean from the hetero’s.
Regarding JG’s stance and her powerbase, I think she has held her view long before she was PM and trying to maintain her position… that’s not to say it isn’t her reason for not changing her mind. But her position has been pretty consistent.
by middle man on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:28 am
Leroy
Absolutely. It would show she cares and she is in touch with people. It is going to be the main news story tonight no matter what.
It is also something that would stick in peoples mind for ever.
by bluegreen on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:28 am
ShowsOn @ 141 My guess is that Gillard’s PARENTS are opposed to same sex marriage on religious grounds, and while they are still alive Gillard can’t bring herself to support something that her parents are opposed to.
I haven’t seen it put quite like that before but I think there may be something in it, but there is more. When she says it’s a deeply held belief I think she is sincere in that. After all, she’s not been afraid to declare her atheism to them, nor to live very publicly in a de facto relationship.
Asking her to show leadership for a cause she doesn’t believe in, which even goes against her own declared belief, doesn’t make sense! That’s not leadership!
I think she gave as good an account as she could of her position last night. She was clearly moved by that father with his son, but unless she has a Road to Damascus conversion on the issue I don’t think she’ll change. Gay marriage advocates need to be patient and wait for a change of leadership in Libs so that perhaps then Coalition pollies get a conscience vote too.
When I say there’s ‘something in it’ I think it is to do with having been raised by a mum and a dad in a truly loving relationship and a very happy family. Her ‘sense’ of family possibly stems from that. I bet if she had chosen parenthood for herself it would have necessarily required marriage for her. Whatever it is, let’s just live with this apparent contradiction in a genuine libertarian who has done her very best to ensure equality of opportunity in every possible way here, and is possibly puzzled by the failure of gay to appreciate that.
by PatriciaWA on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:28 am
Oh for crying out loud.
I’m gay myself and while I would like to see gay marriage one day, I’m not going to beat Julia Gillard over the head about it.
If we want gay marriage in Australia, have a majority Labor government. Even if there’s ALP members against it, if there’s at least 90 of them on the HoR, there’ll be enough progressives among them to outnumber those against it, including the tory dinosaurs opposite that will vote against it as a bloc.
Or do these campaigners just want to contribute to the anti-Gillard hatred and vote in an Abbott government that may very well incite Cronulla style riots against social minorities that they don’t like – i.e. them.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:29 am
OK, it’s a big call from this far out, but I predict Christian Porter will lead the Libs (hopefully to a loss) at the 2016 federal election.
Given his dry conservative credentials and his good media skills, as well as the marked lack of talent in the Liberal party, Porter looks set to capitalise on a clear opportunity to make it to within grasping distance of the top job.
by Ozymandias on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:31 am
To Dingo or Not to Dingo, now LIVE
by The Finnigans on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:31 am
@ABCNews24: Live Now: NT Coroner handing down her findings from an inquest into the disappearance of Azaria Chamberlain. http://t.co/AhggUgUN
by guytaur on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:32 am
Ozymandias
He would have to overcome is biggest flaw. He’s a West Australian.
by bluegreen on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:33 am
VK
Well said!!
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:33 am
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wayne-swan-open-to-boosting-industry-aid-for-businesses-looking-to-asia/story-e6frg8zx-1226392622461
by Leroy on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:34 am
Coming from those who oppose recognising committed same sex relationships as marriage it seems like a classic positional goods argument — allowing someone else into my club makes my club a worse place to be. Nothing else (aside from obsessive fundamentalism) begins to ground an argument against recognition of gay marriage.
That makes it, by definition, a virulent form of homophobia — something that does the PM no credit. Bizarrely though, the regime’s moves described by Gillard to remove other legal discrimination against gays almost certainly prejudice her standing in those communities even more than holding out against same sex marriage — and since her hold-out looks insincere and ill-argued, it gets her no kudos in the wider world from them either.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:34 am
Somehow I doubt the Libyans are too concerned about legal status.
If Taylor was handing a coded document and pen camera to Gaddaffis son, she’s quite rightly in a lot of trouble.
by Diogenes on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:35 am
Fran
Reminds me of this…
by bluegreen on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:38 am
how does her ‘hold-out’ look insincere? some times in life we need to accept that others don’t hold our views nor can we convince them do so. and not all beliefs are held in some paradigm of pure logic. humans are inconsistent and illogical.
the denigrating my ‘club’ opposition to same sex marriage is definitely homophobic. any opposition to it is in my opinion. but some people struggle to re-think new standards for society… it’s no good getting fed up and angry at these people. often patience and the passage of time is a better tactic.
by middle man on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:40 am
PatriciaWA
Well said.
I’ve been thinking the same thing for a long time.
by leone on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:41 am
A dingo dunnit. (probably, maybe)
Gillard needs to call Lindy to commiserate today. Big moment in history.
by bluegreen on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:42 am
So, the dingo DID do it!
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:46 am
Coroner finds dingo did do it.
32 years of legend laid to rest.
Poor Chamberlains.
by bluegreen on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:46 am
Dingo done it
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:46 am
The Dingo or Dingoes did it!!!!!!!
by The Finnigans on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:47 am
I suspect the gay groups may have some false hope on gay marriage when it comes to the PM.
They are putting pressure on her because they cannot believe her stance. They are doing this precisely because they have given up Abbott as a lost cause. So the thin reed of hope is what they are clutching as against no hope of change in this session of Parliament.
by guytaur on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:47 am
So many people, so sure she killed her own baby… all wrong.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:49 am
Thanks Zoomster, much obliged for the elucidation. I assume therefore that if so disposed, the government is entitled to ask for a ruling (if it so applied), or a decision on alteration of wording or phrase (if it so applied) as to vindicate the implicit rights of individuals under legislation (namely The Marriage Act) not to be discriminated against on grounds of gender and determined by a referendum of the people.
Okay, got it. I think our work here is done.
by Gecko on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:51 am
I think an inquiry is needed. One into media coverage. What role did the media play? What rules could be in place around legal proceedings to prevent trial by media? etc etc.
by guytaur on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:51 am
Coroner close to tears.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:51 am
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/polling/im-unpopular-because-im-the-bearer-of-bad-tidings-says-abbott/story-fnc6vkbc-1226392562712
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:51 am
Brilliant speech by Coroner.
And Lindy can now pick up a death certificate for Azaria that says death by dingo.
by bluegreen on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:52 am
Making Lionel Murphy’s observations in 1984 all the more prescient:
by shellbell on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:52 am
It took them 32 years to decide that the Dingo did it. I told my wife never complain again about me taking 2 years to fix the dripping tap
by The Finnigans on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:53 am
bluegreen @ 376
Absolutely! Never any doubt about it.
It was a massive witch hunt and a national disgrace.
by bemused on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:53 am
Julia Gillard should ask Lindy if she would like the government to build a memorial to Azaria.
by bluegreen on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:54 am
@latikambourke: Yes. Very much so. RT @andrewnikolic: Coroner Elizabeth Morris. Class!
by guytaur on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:56 am
bluegreen @ 366
I take your point, bluegreen, although I would say WestERN Australian. Still, given the pace of the WA economy, there may be an “It’s Time” factor in Porter’s favour… that may be enough for Eastern States Libs to swallow their bias.
by Ozymandias on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:56 am
http://www.nt.gov.au/justice/courtsupp/coroner/findings/other/chamberlain_findings.pdf
by Leroy on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:57 am
Guytaur @ 331
Good point.
by Gecko on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:59 am
And then some!
by MTBW on Jun 12, 2012 at 11:03 am
zoomster, it seems so inconsistent that someone of Gillards background, political beliefs and philosophy would be anti gay marriage. It looks like political expediency. And makes her look dishonest
by Andrew on Jun 12, 2012 at 11:03 am
I confess that I don’t know what happened to Azaria Chamberlain. I don’t think that story will ever be resolved.
On the other hand, I am as certain as one can be of anything that “a dingo/feral dog did it” cannot be true.
I’m not saying the Lindy lied. Perhaps she really believes it, but speaking as someone who has trained dogs, looked after dingoes over long periods of time and attempted to rehabilitate ferals, I find the scenario that would have had to transpire utterly incredible.
Given that nobody is helped by an open finding, I’m relaxed about the declaration. I don’t see that dingoes will care. The matter should end here, but personally, I remain unconvinced.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 12, 2012 at 11:05 am
The coaliton primary has lost 6-7% , the coaliton seems it can not halt the slide wiht abbott as leader
by Meguire Bob on Jun 12, 2012 at 11:06 am
FB
The coroner considered all the evidence and came to that conclusion.
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 11:08 am
July 1st is comming and I can’t wait for the Abbott offensive to kick off. I hope the libs run more then a few ” there will be no carbon tax in the government I lead” adds across the country.
by rummel on Jun 12, 2012 at 11:09 am