Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
succinct could be how I meant to spell it, typing so fast I didn’t realise how badly my brain was spelling
by WeWantPaul on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:52 pm
A mere 5 years after the ALP had White Australia in their party platform
by bluegreen on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Bemused: Condemned by your own words methinks.
I stand by the critique.
by Rossmore on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:54 pm
rudd 31-71, rudd is no lazarus,but certainly a misleading lib ploy,or head in the sand labor person who sadly needs help and understanding,perhaps a kerosene bath would help.
by Schnappi on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Blue green the dirt unit lasted a day, that’s all.
And promulgated by the ABC.
Forgotten tomorrow, particularly in a non newspoll week it is bubkiss.
by Henry on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Sure it wont be raised in QT?
by bluegreen on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Rossmore
Yes indeed
Anyhow night all
by victoria on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:56 pm
dirt file = slipper /ashby and jackson hsu tomorrow.
by Schnappi on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:56 pm
bg, it survived in the wee ABC bubble and the twee PB bubble… it was of no consequence.
by middle man on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Went to see the Climate change and Carbon Price forum at UWA tonight, with Greg Combet explaing how the Carbon Price works.
Was very good. And she it be done elsewhere around Australia I thoroughly recommend going along.
He was a good speaker, though he got unusually animated and passionate in parts.
So, I guess we can officially say it is not a tax. Because in no way is it like a tax, and no one should be happy calling it a tax. It’s a permit or licence.
Anyway, he was very well received. Very long loud applause and there was only one genuinely stupid question from the auidence. Seemed people were almost universal in thinking it was a good thing (that’s the vibe I got anyway). The main point people made in the questions was that the Govt needed to sell it in the way Greg Combet had just done – so explain what it is and why we’re doing it. He agreed and said that’s why he was here tonight, but that the current political climate made it difficult.
Yeah so, if the Govt sell this better; by explaining what it is and why we’re doing it they should be on a winner.
by Astrobleme on Jun 14, 2012 at 10:58 pm
If the libs do raise the ‘dirt file” rubbish in QT I am sure the government will raise the conflicting statements by Abbott today and in 2007.
He is the one with honesty issues on this matter, not the government.
by Doyley on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Rossmore @ 3602
Then your powers of comprehension have also failed you.
by bemused on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:00 pm
WWP,
My understanding of the role that jesters played in medieval and later courts was that they needed to keep their wits about them if they wanted to survive … which makes your “drunk jester” role even more apt
by fiona on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Yeah, you know i was wondering about that??
What brilliant Fiberal tactician decided to run on “Dirt” as this weeks theme with that coming up???
by imacca on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Rossmore
You may have missed the link to “concern troll” last night. If so, check it out in urban dictionary.
There are a few on PB and other sites too.
by psyclaw on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Of course it won’t be, are you serious? That’s what, a week away?
One day wonder and the coalition know that if they do if there is plenty of ammo to fire back. Blowback they call it.
by Henry on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:01 pm
I get the feeling that some (and I stress some) of the so called “pro ALP” people on here would discourage Liberals from voting ALP given the tone of some of the comments
by spur212 on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:02 pm
[A mere 5 years after the ALP had White Australia in their party platform[
And what has that to do with the price of eggs?
Are you trying to say Bemused supported the WAP? It just goes to show how low anyone with a even a tinge of Coalition in them will go.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:02 pm
fiona – loved the train story re Goward and Barnett. I think we know what gave you hysterics.
WWP – The true function of the private MSM seems to have been lost in the 24/7 frenzy and media ownership agendas but surely the ABC has to be more accountable than to say quiet when they know pollies of any Party are clearly talking rubbish.
Rossmore –
Orf to bed before I fall asleep. Night all.
by BH on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:03 pm
SBS is now showing
seriously
by bluegreen on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Goodnight, sweetiepies; I shall now disappear with a curious Perfume and most melodious Twang…
Gold star and elephant stamp to the first PB to identify that (slightly mangled) quotation without googling
by fiona on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:06 pm
immacca
It was really dumb UNLESS there is a huge dump-truck of really smelly soil about to unload on the Fibs. Then it is unfolding the umbrella.
We can only hope
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:06 pm
3611
bemused
Posted Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 11:00 pm | Permalink
Rossmore @ 3602
Bemused: Condemned by your own words methinks.
I stand by the critique.
“Then your powers of comprehension have also failed you.”
Bland Bemused, bland.
by Rossmore on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:06 pm
There are those of us who understood this from the outset.
But glad you enjoyed Combet’s speech.
by confessions on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:07 pm
fiona
Bewitched?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Henry
I think you’re correct ….. the dirt unit issue will be well cremated by the next QT.
But I think they would have raised it if it was a live issue then.
They have no hesitation in raising q after q which blind freddy can see is going to lead to a KO answer from whatever minister…….. they’re dumb or masochists.
Oh….just remembered who manages them in the House …..prissy poodle…..that explains it!
by psyclaw on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Confessions
Stephen Conroy called it the carbon tax on the today show this morning.
Puff
No. I was not saying that. I do, however think that it is interesting that historically the most racist major party is now the least racist major party.
Dunstan did a good job of beating the unions over that issue.
by bluegreen on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Confessions
Yes, so had I – I have argued this ad nauseum with Mod Lib. The comments were directed more at Mod Lib, Rummel, and Gauss.
by Astrobleme on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Two points:
1. Today’s Liberal voters need to understand that today’s Liberal party does not represent the traditional Liberal viewpoint.
2. Those Liberal voters doggedly voting Liberal regardless of what their party has become are unlikely to vote Labor anyway.
by confessions on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Shows on
“IT IS A GRANITE BASOLITH, HOW SMURFING STUPID IS SHE?”
I hope you were being ironic here.
by Astrobleme on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:11 pm
BlueGreen
It is not even close to a tax, so if he did he is a dumbass.
This was the point a lot of people made at the lecture, why do Govt Members keep calling it a tax. It’s as close to a tax as your drivers licence.
by Astrobleme on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Actually PBers, maybe even me, have called for the gov’t to get their ammo together and start giving Abbott and co some broadsides inn the ‘midships.
So i am pleased to hear they are doing some deep research, good news for me.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:14 pm
Puffy,
Solly.
Night.
I shall look at all responses sometime after 5pm tomorrow.
by fiona on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:15 pm
Did you direct it to Gillard who was happy to use the word tax, or her many ministers (including one more this very day apparently) who have used the word tax?
Not sure why you guys are so set to shoot the messenger while not criticising the ALP (oops, did I hit that nail on the head again?)
by Mod Lib on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:15 pm
Puff
they have been pretty useless so far at it.
by bluegreen on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:15 pm
I will take a more simplistic approach and say Abbott ran with the dirt file issue today because he saw it as a chance for some short term political gain.
He out and out lied today and is on record now as doing so but that did not worry him as he has blinkers on and cannot think more than two minutes in advance once in attack mode.
Whether this comes back to bite him will be interesting as will the approach taken by the papers tomorrow on this issue,
Will they follow it up or let it rest ?
I am sure the ABC will continue with it to some degree as it is “their story “
by Doyley on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:16 pm
ooff Defence Force Royal Commission on its way
Sheridan must be apopleptic.
by bluegreen on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Oh good. A painless miracle tax that would reduce the temp of the world or effect the climate was a bit far fetched.
by rummel on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:17 pm
What do you mean ‘the most racist’?
What is the worse racism, not wanting to bring in foreign workers (Labor) or bringing them in as slave labour (capitalists)?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:18 pm
bluegreen:
I did not see Conroy this morning. But would add that Conroy hilariously bought into drunk Barnaby hysteria about an NBN ‘button’ during estimates hearings last year.
Astrobleme:
Ok, got it.
by confessions on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:18 pm
bg
I agree. Labor has to learn that you cannot reason with a snake.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:20 pm
ModLib
I did critiscise the PM for saying she was happy to call it a tax. It was a big blunder.
IF, however, you are actually able to comprehend the truth of the legislation you will note that it in no way resembles a tax. This was a point made TO Greg Combet by the audience, and he responded saying he understands and that he had never called it a tax. He said the reason he was doing these forums was to get people to understand it isn’t a tax.
What interests me now is whether you are prepared to concede it isn’t a tax. My belief is that you will want to continue this misunderstanding because it serves your politics. But as Greg Combet pointed out several times, this is an incredibly dishonest thing to do.
by Astrobleme on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:20 pm
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:22 pm
Puff
from an socialist critique essay of the history of the ALP I am reading at the moment.
by bluegreen on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Dirt files, electricity prices, commercial fishermen in marine parks, JHo on the NBN (snigger) Gina/Fairfax, Palmer/economic summit. Jackson/HR Nicholls. All distractions.
Main game is tomorrow. ASHBY
by Rossmore on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:24 pm
From Guardian Live Blog
by guytaur on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:24 pm
And Rummel chimes in with more nonsense! Wonder if I can get Gauss to spread some ignorance…
Rummel, it’s internalising and external cost. Another thing Greg Combet pointed out is that we are committed (as is most of the rest of the world) to being able to demonstrate carbon dioxide reductions by 2020. Most developed countries will have an ETS equivalent in place by 2015 – they’re going to be incredibly important to trade. Countries without ETS’ will suffer as those with them will impose tariffs.
by Astrobleme on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:25 pm
astrobleme
All those apologies for good policies, calling the ETS a tax when it was not (even though if JG said it wasn’t a tax she would have been accused of ‘spin’, you know the drill) and the generally small-target-approach were mistakes. But hey, why is a Labor mistake the end of the universe as we know it and a Liberal mistake just a shrug of the shoulders?
The double standards are breath-taking.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Astrobleme:
I actually couldn’t care less whether it is a tax or not.
What I care about is that it has not been properly explained. It is not at all clear to me what it is expected to do. Why is it set at $23, and not $22.50 for example, or $48.74? Why is it set for 3 years and not, say, 4 years or 2 years? What does it subtract from growth? How many jobs will it kill versus how many will it create?
etc etc etc
The issue about the tax or no tax is that, yet again, Gillard completely stuffed up the politics as she has absolutely no political nous. She said absolutely explicitly, without any equivocation, without any caveats or subtext fine print, then she admitted it was a tax after the election and has never explained how she didn’t mislead.
by Mod Lib on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Link to above socialist essay
http://www.google.com.au/url?q=http://www.comcen.com.au/~marcn/redflag/archive/alp.doc&sa=U&ei=QebZT7uJMa2TiQeziIGjAw&ved=0CBEQFjAA&sig2=qJs0QP_0sxKrov2p2Gc9xA&usg=AFQjCNHGZdy1qsoeQia_0bNDSuIXCj7S0w
Its a word doc. It also talks about the betrayal of Hawke and Keating. Quite amusing really.
by bluegreen on Jun 14, 2012 at 11:26 pm