Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Good Morning Bludgers!
Should be an interesting day court wise. Hopefully Slipper puts the boot into the Ashby rubbish and we get to watch K Jackson squirm some more.
by Space Kidette on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:42 am
morning all
Libtika this morning faithfully regurgitating Abbott without question
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by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:47 am
Good morning all.
Unfortunately I’ll be at work so will miss today’s legal shenanigans. It promises to be a most interesting day!
by confessions on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:47 am
SK
It will be interesting today. It appears the Lawyers for Slipper are seeking leave to supboena witnesses. Bring it on i say!
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:48 am
mari
I understand.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:49 am
It dawns on Andrew Elder that Arthur Sinodinos really is a lightweight.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/sinodinos-exposed-as-lightweight.html
by confessions on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:49 am
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:49 am
Confessions,
I am hoping I get back in time. I have to help my elderly parents pack my brothers furniture so they can take it back to NSW. Something they are way too old for. Lucky brother is in another state or I’d be giving him a clip across the ears.
by Space Kidette on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:50 am
confessions
I believe a post yesterday by “Bill” said that his partner knew Christian Porter, and that he was evil!!! Does that mean Abbott and him will get along famously
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:51 am
Maybe Tony can clarify for us whether the alleged videotape of Peter Slipper getting into bed with a staffer and urinating out the window is an example of what is contained in the “clips file” …
by Danny Lewis on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:51 am
DL
amazing how Abbott thinks by calling their file something else, it makes it so!!
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:52 am
anyhow in the Hard copy of the Herald Sun, reportage of Labor’s Dirt file was on page 11, and barely 2 paragraphs.
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:53 am
SK:
I’ll have to catch the day’s events on the news tonight.
by confessions on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:54 am
Gotta love this headline. Can you imagine the same wording if it had been the Queen?
See? That wasn’t hard …
by Danny Lewis on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:55 am
Abbott speaks at press conference.
by BK on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:57 am
I have not heard anything bad said about Porter, but have never met the man, so can’t say what he’s like.
He is one of a very, very small number of competent ministers. WA Liberals are so bereft of talent that Troy Buswell’s name is being shopped around as a genuine replacement should Barnett retire. Unbelievable!
by confessions on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:57 am
This was linked last night.
It will be imteresting to see what the Court directs today re Slipper
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/slippers-lawyers-seek-to-delay-courts-next-move-20120614-20d69.html#ixzz1xmFdRmjO
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:58 am
An apalling lack of proof-reading at the Age/National Times. Spot the error:
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/slippers-lawyers-seek-to-delay-courts-next-move-20120614-20d69.html#ixzz1xo6rsV8X
It is obvious the contratced subs just run the copy through a spell-check and don’t actually READ the story. As a trained sub-editor and proof-reader, I hate this!
by Ozymandias on Jun 15, 2012 at 7:59 am
Not hard to guess who would be subpoenaed
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:01 am
Ozy
As you can see, I just posted the article. Brought not bought
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:02 am
Grattan has her usual two bob each way, bashing Gillard then offering excuses for Abbott:
by Ozymandias on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:10 am
Victoria wins the spotter’s prize.
But you didn’t spot my own error, did you Vic?
APPalling!
by Ozymandias on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:12 am
Good morning, Bludgers; and a special Good Morning, Dawn Patrollers.
And it IS a good morning! Bright sunshine and, so far, no wind.
Minister Tony Burke takes huge steps to safeguard out marine heritage. If he does get this through (the fishing equivalent of Truckwits will go off their brains) – and Tony Abbott threatens to repeal the legislation, thus ensuring the ways ALP, Environmentalists, and Green voters 2nd preferences will flow to ensure the legislation is entrenched – I’ll feel, after what’s been a 50 year fight, that particular environmental battle is finally over. Well done, Minister Burke! And everlasting thanks to the late Judith Wright and late Qld Senator George Georges who for so long, before environmentalism became a popular cause, led the battles to save Cooloola and Fraser Is sand dunes, the Reef and the Rainforests; whose early and passionate work Minister Burke now proposes to complete.
BTW: I’m also now more relaxed about Newman’s threatened repeal of Wild Rivers legislation – which will allow “development” aka “mining”. In both affected areas – Gulf of Carpentaria and Lake Eyre Basin – he will come against Fed Minister Burke. The Gulf is part of the Marine legislation, and LEB involves NT, SA & (marginally) NSW governments, inc some protected parks, as well as Qld & Federal governments. I can’t see Burke waving Newman and his plans through.
Also interesting was PM David Cameron’s testament before the Leveson Inquiry. Lots of personal charm. Smooth as an oyster with a bow tie, as a former colleague would say! But rather naive, as he outlined what was really a lesson in how the Murdoch & Rebekah Brooks mesmerised Cameron into enacting their collective will.
More interesting to me, from an Oz perspective, was Cameron’s description of how, as Opposition Leader, he transformed Conservatives, who richly deserved the nickname “The Nasty Party”, into a Party now in government with the LibDems. Policies! PM Cameron kept coming back to how dedicated he was to reforming the Conservatives and ensuring he had the “right” Conservative policies in place before 2009; how he toured the UK discussing them, building on what he already had, until he had his whole platform “right”.
Well, yes! Slow, meticulous development of political platform and policy planks and tirelessly travelling the nation trying to sell them is how Oppositions prepare themselves for government; have always been. Cameron emphasised that it had taken him 5 years.
But it’s not how Tony Abbott prepares for government. In fact, it’s the antithesis of how Abbott prepares for government. Little wonder Cameron spares little time for him.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:17 am
Ozy:
Isn’t Slipper technically Speaker of the HoR, rather than federal parliament?
by confessions on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:18 am
Oz
I didn’t notice!!
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:20 am
confessions
Semantics me thinks
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:20 am
Ozy
Will I learn anything from reading Ms Grattan’s latest offering?
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:23 am
Richo’s never wrong. His timing can be a bit out every now and again. That’s all.
Having your candidate “loathed by many MPs”… well, there is that.
The power brokers are out of town… imagine if you had a revolution and nobody came?
So, Richo’s (and the plotters’) reluctant conclusion is… give her a little more time. They want to do her slowly, or something.
What was that Richo said about Gillard being gone by the end of May?
Must have been the other Richo.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:23 am
Yes, you will learn that she loathes Gillard and is an Abbott fan-Stupenda.
Repetition is often the best way to lock certain lessons inside your head.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:25 am
Vic
No, but it will confirm your current opinion.
by Ozymandias on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:26 am
meanwhile here in Vic. The state Libs are going from bad to worse. The water bill stuff up could turn out to be Ballieu’s waterloo!!
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:26 am
BB/Ozy
therefore Situation Normal AFU!!!
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:27 am
Or will TA see him as a rival, Victoria? Isn’t “envy” one of the 7 Deadly Sins?
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:27 am
Here is today’s reportage in the Age re Water bill. Imagine if Fed Labor had done this
QMELBOURNE Water, facing a public outcry over its billing blunder, has declared it will reconsider its options for refunding millions of consumers the money they are currently being overcharged for their water.
The state government-owned water agency and Premier Ted Baillieu endured a second day of pressure yesterday after it was revealed Melburnians would be mistakenly billed $306 million for the Wonthaggi desalination plant before it is finished.
After acknowledging its error, Melbourne Water initially said consumers would be refunded over five years in the form of offsets to future water bills.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-water-thinks-again-on-bill-refunds-20120614-20d51.html#ixzz1xoFNCorG
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:29 am
OPT
Yes a rival is more likely.
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:30 am
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/report-highlights-abuse-in-military-20120614-20dac.html#ixzz1xoFLqi4S
Smith is absolutely right when he said last night about a Royal Commission into the ADF. The more you dig the more stuff you find. And stand by for the usual preposterous excuses from the ADA.
by confessions on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:30 am
Morning All
Will need to try and keep up with the action in court/s today from work – hoping to see some dramatic headlines
Would be great if Slipper calls all those that have been linked to the matter pre the court case to ask what advice they provided – i.e. Pyne, Brough, Bishop – what a spectacle that would be.
As for Jackson – she will probably sack another lawyer or two
Anyways, enjoy the action all – have a great day
by womble on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:31 am
womble
Have a great day too
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:32 am
[A classic David Rowe effort.
http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Thanks, BK. I did sooo love this one!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:37 am
And coming up on Agenda – your Friday emetic.
Peter Reith!
by BK on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:42 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/14/rebekah-brooks-david-cameron-text-decoded?CMP=twt_gu
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:44 am
BK
Vomit inducing!L
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:44 am
Then there is this, from the Rico OZ article:
While the “9%” carbon tax figure is only an approximation, let’s apply it to Richo’s mate’s company.
$1.7 million @ $23 per tonne = 73,913 tonnes of carbon emissions.
$1.7 million being 9% of the ordinary bill = an electricity bill of $18,888,888.
That’s near enough to $19 million on electricity per year.
The “larger end of the medium-sized business definition”? Somehow I don’t think so.
Of course, it might not be all electricity. The company may be one of the big polluters, but Richo should realize that just giving us bare figures like this serves no informative purpose other than the put the frighteners onto the already cowering business community that seems to regard The Australian as its Bible.
Then he says this:
The answer is for consumers to consume less. But as this appears to be regarded as anathema to their God-given rights to switch on whenever they want to, they have to pay the price.
No government that allowed blackouts on high consumption days would survive. It’s the angry mob of voters demanding perfection and then whingeing about the cost.
THAT is what should be explained, but can’t be in today’s toxic “grab and gotcha” political environment.
What Richo is asking Gillard to do is to put the rope around her political neck, tell everyone they’re a pack of whingeing SOBs, then kick the chair out from underneath herself.
Why is that it’s always Labor that’s called upon to “spend political capital”?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/a-missed-chance-to-connect-with-the-people-over-the-price-of-power/story-e6frgd0x-1226396001400
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:44 am
Tony Abbott on 97.3 now referred to “Modern Labor Government” not Gillard Government.
This morning.
Changing tactic again are we – Coalition Supporters are dirty by the minute.
by zoidlord on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:45 am
BK:
Reith is seriously overexposed. I feel like wherever I go (Sky, ABC) I encounter his oily persona.
by confessions on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:45 am
spruiking the Education bonus payment
https://mobile.twitter.com/ShayneNeumannMP/status/213399696805339136/photo/1
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:47 am
I can’t believe it. Reith starts off talking sense, saying that there’s nothing wrong with the reported “dirt file”. He reckons it’s a media beat up and that of all people, they have the biggest dirt files.
He also stated that unlike in other countries, we have no corruption in Federal politics.
by BK on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:51 am
Well, if people think Defense is out of control and leaking against the government now, we haven’t seen anything compared with what we’ll get if a Royal Commission is called into these allegations.
by Burgey on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:51 am
Now Reith is back on odious form.
by BK on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:52 am
BK
Dear oh dear. Reith is not helping Abbott at all
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 8:52 am