Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
middle man @ 3838
Try countering his arguments.
by bemused on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:48 am
by Leroy on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:48 am
guytaur
No but maybe like this ….
http://cache.wists.com/thumbnails/c/01/c0130361188ae8ed69b9973513304643-orig
by poroti on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:48 am
The finns
I know. That is why I was wondering where the heck you were!
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:49 am
zoid
I said it was a good election slogan. It is.
The reality of the anti piracy anti leaks and war on terror clampdown on civil rights is another matter entirely
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:49 am
guytaur
nonsense. To talk of ‘festering leadership problems’ is clearly indicating a position.
For instance, I don’t think there ARE ‘festering leadership problems’ but that the same people who didn’t support Gillard don’t support Gillard still.
That the media beats this up into some kind of crisis doesn’t mean there are ‘festering leadership problems.’
I’m sure I could – had I access to the people involved – beat up a similar story about the Greens. I’m sure that at least one Green MP, off the record, would express some negative sentiment about Milne which I could use to portray a party divided, questions about her leadership, etc etc etc.
It’s absolutely a dead cert I could do the same with the Libs or the Nats.
The focus on one party as having ‘leadership problems’ is a beat up, and anyone who gives credence to it is part of that.
by zoomster on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:51 am
is Karen Doane the advisor that went on leave straight after the claim by Ashby
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:51 am
The interesting thing with the Defense stuff was the Coalition spokesman, whose name I can’t remember, saying on radio this morning to just pay out the complainants.
That may have some visceral appeal, but the problem of course is that a meaningful allegation doesn’t mean the allegation is proven.
I think it’s a difficult thing to balance. No one in their right mind would want to put people through reliving abuse, but by the same token you can’t just pay up on all the allegations. Those against whom the allegations are made have a right to challenge them too.
Very awkward. And imagine the cries of “waste and mismanagement” if the government simply paid out without investigating the complaints.
by Burgey on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:51 am
bg. i don’t give a rats about his argument. i haven’t and won’t participate in the gillard v rudd soap opera. its the boring repetition i object to.
by middle man on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:52 am
I think we are now seeing why the dirt unit accusations were made yesterday – Abbott and Co will be covered in dirt before this is all over and it will all have been dumped on them own side
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:52 am
catmomma
Its your friend.
@PoliticalPoet2: @latikambourke #auspol – My father was royal prince from Nigeria send me ur bank details and I will have #cashforyou
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:53 am
@guytaur/3954
Except you can’t back up without some truth in it.
So I’m just going to have to disagree with you on that.
by zoidlord on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:53 am
BW –
That’s not what I was suggesting – a separate tribunal including one member with experience in ‘military justice’ would streamline the handling of some individuals still serving.
by CTar1 on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:54 am
zoomster
Good correction.
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:55 am
burgey. and simply paying out doesn’t address let victims give voice to their experiences or feel they have taken part in a process of justice. its demeaning to victims. nor would it allow the ADF to actually identify the culture issues they need to address to ensure it doesn’t continue. talk about #cashforyou!
by middle man on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:55 am
Mex, dont take my words. They have written a book on that:
TONY Abbott is a bully who hates women, and his outdated social views are a threat to national cohesion and plurality – http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/book-tackles-dangerous-bullying-abbott/story-fn59niix-1226154470110
by The Finnigans on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:55 am
bg
Hard for you to admit that we lizard people may know moar than you
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:56 am
Burgey @ 3957
Good post. You would have to wonder why the Coalition spokesman does not want the stables cleaned out. Cynical stuff, IMHO.
It is not just a matter of compensation. For the psychological health of the victims there has to be either a reconciliation process or a process of justice for the perpetrators.
In addition, victims need to have a sense that their suffering was not in vain and that changes have been made to stop other abuse in the future.
by Boerwar on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:56 am
CTar1
No worries. I accept your clarification.
by Boerwar on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:57 am
No, good policy is always better than following contaminated populist polls.
Read ‘Rupert Murdoch – The Mogul of Fleet Street. 24 Tales from Vanity Fair’ available from Amazon as a Kindle for $1.99 or read Leveson to see how it is done.
Once Leveson is finished about the end of this year watch for a major sort out of the media, and watch the whole scene change.
Poll watching at this stage of the Electoral cycle is amusing even interesting, but making major changes as a result of them is fatuous in the extreme.
by muttleymcgee on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:58 am
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:58 am
The astonishing thing about David Johnson’s comments as shadow minister for defence was that he doesn’t seem to feel there is any need to actually pursue the offenders – just pay off the complainants.
In many cases of this type the survivors want justice more than they want money.
Then there is the harsh reality that people who engage in this sort of conduct once often offend again meaning there are people in the community who may have access to potential victims because they have never been identified as perpetrators.
by roaldan1000 on Jun 15, 2012 at 10:58 am
Would this be the longest and most wide ranging Royal Commission in Australian history?
by bluegreen on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:00 am
Interesting than the LOTO has switched from sayin “Gillard Government” to “Modern Lablor Government”. Seems the focus groups might be indicating the PM isn’t “hated” after all! Whatever will TLM, TP, spur, bemused et al do now!
The whole basis for replacing the PM as leader has been that she is a drag on the Labor vote. With the coalition implicitly conceding that this is not the case, that argument is looking pretty tired and strained.
by ajm on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:00 am
@AboutTheHouse: Social Policy Committee to webcast media conference on same-sex marriage report at 12:45pm 18 June from com room 2R1. http://t.co/xwyYVA4l
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:00 am
Ashby case now above Cameron in order of stories reported on 24
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:01 am
guytaur
That will be interesting
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:01 am
Ctar, Roaldan and Boerwar.
I’m assuming the shadow minister suggesting payouts as a way of ensuring the Lib’s remain the ADF’s political party of choice…. it fits nicely with the “defence should never have spending cut” theme..
by middle man on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:01 am
bluegreen
whereas, of course, the Liberals don’t repeat the same catchphrase day after smurfing day.
The fact that both parties repeat messages again and again should tell you something about the research – that it all (not one or two studies) say the same thing, and that this is borne out by experience.
There used to be a clip of a Costello presser where – instead of taking the 30 second grab out – they simply played the whole presser in full. Whatever the question, Costello ignored it and repeated the same sentence over and over again.
Any media training I’ve had – from the party, in business, and as a councillor – emphasized the need to repeat the message ad nauseum, even if it means ignoring the actual question.
One senior Labor parliamentarian told me in 2007 that what distinguished Rudd from Beazley was that Beazley quickly got bored hammering home the same message again and again, whereas Rudd was so determined to be PM he maintained the discipline to do it.
by zoomster on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:01 am
Yes I have seen the author, Ms Susan Mitchell interviewed and she didn’t say anything we didn’t know about Tone and is silly outdated old fogy ideas, but I would not describe those silly views as hatred of women but rather just not suitable for a modern national leader.
by mexicanbeemer on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:02 am
ajm
Good observatiom
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:03 am
Did not think of it this way
View details ·
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:06 am
@ajm/3973
@victoria/3980
Problem is that robots will keep channeling the same mantra until they have been devastated next election.
by zoidlord on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:07 am
zoidlord
All I can say, is that it is boring beyond belief
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:08 am
Much derision on twitter about the PM and other MPs using the #cashforyou hashtag on tweets about the education payments today. Lots of very inventive variations produced and the inevitable “serious” comments from both left and right about how horrible and crass it is to use such a “direct” message.
What they’re all missing is that the one thing that will actually stick in people’s minds is “cash for you”, which is exactly what the government wants. What was that about only the impotent being pure?
by ajm on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:08 am
Zoomster
1. Being on message does not mean using glib catchphrases.
2. And is is not helpful for the ALP to use the coalition as their guidebook. It would be much better if they used Aristotle and not Mark Textor.
by bluegreen on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:09 am
Saying “Modern Labor Government” is just another way of saying this is not a real Labor Govt like Hawke/Keating – it’s an ‘out of control rebel’ that needs to be put down …
Just more spin dog whistling.
by CTar1 on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:10 am
bg
I cant take anything you say seriously. One day you say the govt need to keep it simple, and now you say they need to quote aristotle. Like a few on this blog, you are a false flagger
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:11 am
Who leaked the stuff about Gillard’s dirt unit?
It obviously wasn’t Rudd, because he’s out of the tent now.
I wonder who is now undermining the ranga?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:11 am
Pegasus @ 3877
Thanks Pegasus.
I have concluded Rossmore is just a mindless troll.
Most of the self-styled Labor supporters on here are fools who wouldn’t have two ideas to rub together.
The first step in solving any problem is to correctly identify it. Labor clearly has a problem with it’s primary vote. If the policies are generally approved and the leader of the opposition and most of his front bench are perceived as fools, then what can it be? The clues are there in the polls for those who don’t practice denial.
by bemused on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:11 am
bg. this isn’t Julia and Tone’s Excellent Adventure… Aristotle is dead dude…
by middle man on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:11 am
@bemused stop calling people’s names when they don’t have the same point of view!
by zoidlord on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:12 am
i really think that any posters here shrilling about hash tags should take a grip on reality.
Ask a single parent with three kids at school if they are worried about hash tags and see what answer you get.
the whole attempt this morning to get focus on the hash tag was just a attempt by some ( MSM and libs )to divert the focus off the real issue. Helping parents with education costs.
i find it amazing that some of the very people who complain and go on and on about PB posters who support the PM and labor not living in the real world and not listening to the “real ” people out there are the ones to go on about hash tags as if it is the be all and end all of life itself.
Perhaps they are the ones who need a life.
Just my thoughts.
by Doyley on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:12 am
zoid
Have you looked at the GOP and their lets continue to increase inequality policies?
I disagree. It is a good election slogan. I think Labor strategists should take note.
That does not mean just copying it without thinking.
@BarackObama: POTUS: If you believe this economy grows best when everybody gets a fair shot … I ask you to stand with me for a second term as President.
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:12 am
piss off tosser
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:13 am
mm
A very big clue as to the motivation of some on this blog, is to note what they do not say. Who are the ones who show no interest in the slipper case today?
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:13 am
Remember Tones claims about Olympic Dam and the carbon tax ? What a surprise, it was another load of bull biscuits.
Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/business/demand-not-carbon-drives-expansion-20120614-20cy6.html#ixzz1xou7wKRj
by poroti on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:14 am
zoid
The difference is that once any slight chance that the mantra might have been relevant is removed, the mantra loses any effect in terms of making others anxious, or even paying attention.
by ajm on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:14 am
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:15 am
http://www.smh.com.au/national/text-trail-reveals-link-between-ashby-journo-and–slippers-rivals-court-20120615-20e55.html
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:16 am