Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
middle man
David Johnson is an idiot.
by CTar1 on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:16 am
Oh dear.
by Gecko on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:17 am
Rudd and Gillard (and their respective supporters) can suit themselves.
I just want to know who is paying Ashby’s legal fees!!
by middle man on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:17 am
All the abuse of Bemused & me doesn’t change the fact that Julia Gillard isn’t a popular Prime Minister, something of course that her cheersquad here will never admit.
Oh, and by the way, Vera says hi to all of you.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:17 am
DG
Hehehehe that could very well put a damper on his pre selection chances.
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:17 am
@mrbenjaminlaw: Homophobes should really stop using the phrase “slippery slope” as though it’s a bad thing. You’re only making us excited.
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:18 am
TLM every political leader and minister since the year dot has had staff gather information on people, actually before every meeting a briefing is prepared that tells the leader or minister several interesting facts about who they are meeting.
The department also assist with the process so dozens of people could have known about it.
by mexicanbeemer on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:18 am
Vic
I didn’t say quote Aristotle. He was the first to write comprehensively on rhetoric. He got pissed when smarter people than him was much better at convincing audiences to vote for stuff in Athenian direct deomcracy. So he studied how they do it and wrote about it. He came to the conclusion that it doesnt matter if you are right if you can’t convince anyone to come with you.
Ultimately he saw rhetoric as a force for good and if you cared about something you were obliged to learn and use rhetoric to acheive your goals.
by bluegreen on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:18 am
Or alternatively, there’s been an assessment made that the party is more popular than the leader, so they’re attempting to bring down the party in case there’s a leadership change.
by ltep on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:19 am
victoria@3761: I understand the “dirt unit” story did not get much of a run in the Herald Sun today, but as a public service this morning I have checked out a discarded rubbish bin copy of The Strain (thanks to Andrew Elder for this engaging new moniker for The Australian) and found that the national paper is all over it.
The Strain published a column article by chief headkicker Matthew Franklin (page 6), a full page feature on Dirt Units by Peter Van Onselen, a typically snide and nasty editorial, and the story featured in Cut & Paste. The Strain went in hard, which I guess let the Hun readers off lightly.
And Laura Tingle in the AFR says this morning: “Politics in the past two years has looked a bit like a television show on a perpetual loop in which Labor has interspersed the potency of Mr Abbott’s attacks on it with an unrelenting determination to blow itself up. Yesterday came reports of some Labor bright spark trying to organise “dirt files” on political opponents, just as dirt seems to be going right out of fashion.”
See what she did there? The “dirt file” story is all about Labor blowing itself up again, sigh.
Further, last night on ABC Lateline, Gillard was made to look like an untrustworthy liar by the simple expedient of juxtaposing a film clip of her complaints in 2007 about Howard’s Dirt Unit, with her current defence of ministerial staffers doing background research from the public record on opposition frontbenchers. If you are prepared to take this Lateline report on face value, then Gillard is a hypocrite, easy peasy.
And on ABC RN this morning, Fran Kelly and Michelle Grattan airily agreed that both parties do it, so they both stink. And pundits wonder why the public no longer trusts anyone in public life. If I were to lay the blame on anyone it would be the ABC and its brainless interpretation of “balance”, which basically means shitting on all politicians and parties equally. That way you get paid a motza to “report” whatever anybody says but you have no responsibility to actually read, research, think, and make intelligent and discerning judgements. Mark Scott said something to that effect the other day – ABC journalists are not allowed to think.
So, following on from last night’s conversation here on PB, it appears that whilst Gillard did react swiftly and properly to Alexander Kirk’s original ABC RN story on her alleged “dirt unit” yesterday morning, Gillard did not manage to smother the grenade. The anti-Gillard “Dirt Unit” meme is out there now, and can be revived whenever it is politically expedient for the Opposition, thanks mostly to shallow and irresponsible reporting from the ABC, with strong backing from News Ltd.
On a more uplifting note, how about the Slipper case today? As you say victoria@3893, Slipper is not going down without a fight. Fan-bloody-tastic.
by susan winstanley on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:20 am
Perhaps we should all start feeling a bit sorry for TLM. He’s starting to sound pathetic:
Translation: AnYhow I STILL don’t like her, SO THERE!!
by ajm on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:20 am
@courteneyh: you have to give the alp some credit, #cashforyou is at least an improvement on #cashfromhsu.
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:21 am
Bemused: What they can’t deal with here is this fact: Kevin Rudd isn’t dead & buried, Julia Gillard isn’t the popular leader that they want to pretend she is, Labor’s primary vote is stuck between 26-31%, Tony Abbott’s undoubted unpopularity won’t save Labor(and a change back to Turnball would sink Labor even more).
How supposedly true Labor supporters keep propping up this abysmal woman is beyond me.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:22 am
SW
I do my own vox pox with family and friends re the political news the day. Result. What is dirty?
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:22 am
piss off tosser
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:23 am
TH
Ignorance is bliss.
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:23 am
Thanks Horsey.
I have concluded Bemused is just a mindless troll.
by The Finnigans on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:23 am
LTEP
They’re not that smart. Only one reason why Abbott was using the PM’s name and it’s the same reason he’s stopped using it.
by ajm on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:24 am
@lyndalcurtis: Julia Gillard 16/11/2010: I believe that it is
important to be honest with the Australian
people and thoughtful in your responses. 1/2
@lyndalcurtis: 2/2 Julia Gillard 2010: “Not
for me the three-word slogans of others
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:24 am
So I wonder if Mal is feeling ‘bruff and tough’ this morning or looking for a life-jacket?
by CTar1 on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:24 am
The finns
There are a few of them here. Not at all interested in the possibility of a political conspiracy. Just mindless repetition
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:25 am
spur212 @3929
Spur, don’t you know? Any serious analysis is not welcome here unless it follows the PB ‘party line’.
Childish gibberish seems to be more popular.
by bemused on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:25 am
Dear Rudd supporters,
I have never have, nor will I, attack you for your belief that the ALP would be better off with Rudd as leader.
Dear Gillard supporters,
I have never have, nor will I, attack you for your belief that the ALP would be better off with Gillard as leader.
I will infrequently attack both sides regarding the boring repetitive nature of the ongoing argument.
I am given one Labor person to vote for – my local member. So I do not concern myself with things beyond my control ie who caucus votes to lead them.
I hope this helpful to anyone demanding i counter arguments or take side or whatever…
by middle man on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:25 am
It seems TLM is jumping the shark.
by Gary on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:26 am
TLM
Now TLM is running to bemused for comfort! Mummy, they’re all being rude to me!
by ajm on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:26 am
Middle Man
+1
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:27 am
mm
Well said
Catch you later guys. Hope there is moar to come re Ashby and Slipper. M
by victoria on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:27 am
When you become one… rest assured it will all click.
by Gecko on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:27 am
Coalition supporters are seeing that labor and their supporters are getting on top again’
by Meguire Bob on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:27 am
Kev-07 is dead – he just doesn’t accept it.
As for the buried – he’s like Stalin.
by CTar1 on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:27 am
In relation to dealing with abuses over many years in the defence forces, we already have considered the Stolen Generation and the Forgotten Children, as well as those in religious institutions.
Therefore we really do have a great deal of experience in investigating and trying to resolve the multitude of issues that arise from these terrible abuses.
It does seem that the most important issues to confront are (1) acknowledge the wrongs that have occurred, (2) make a sincere apology, (3) if appropriate, make financial restitution and (4) if appropriate, consider criminal charges.
We should also bear in mind that Australia is not alone in dealing with many of these issues and that we can learn from other countries.
by citizen on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:29 am
Has there been any more on Ashby?
Good to see it climbing up the ladder of spots on the News.
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:29 am
I see bemused is in the thick of it. Pity really, he has much to offer but instead wants to stir the pot.
by Gary on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:30 am
bluegreen
It should be, ADF & the Russell Hill bureaucracy need a few shake ups.
by Leroy on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:30 am
victoria@2013, yes indeed, what exactly is “dirty” about ministerial staffers doing the hard yards, that journalists cannot be bothered doing, and discovering from the pubic record that 34 opposition members have invested their cold hard cash in mining shares, at the same time aswhen Abbott is rabbiting around the country telling everyone else that the mining industry is doomed? I don’t think the ABC is equipped to answer that question unfortunately.
by susan winstanley on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:31 am
tlm SAID:
I’ve detected little willingness to deny that point amongst ALP supporters. They seem to be saying either that it’s not germane and that the realisation of policy will allay the unrealistic fears stirred up by Abbott, or that changing leaders wouldn’t make any useful difference or might be even worse. I’m strongly inclined to agree with those who take this view.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:31 am
Now: Court reporter @JamelleWellsABC on new developments in the Peter #Slipper case. bit.ly/abcnews24
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:31 am
The other staff member was Karen Done that Ashby alleged colluded with.
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:33 am
Wow, Commonwealth says it has phone records of a conspiracy between Ashby and someone called Karen Done (?)
by susan winstanley on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:33 am
With Brough and Lewis being subpoenaed I would not be surprised to see the allegations withdrawn
by Rex Douglas on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:33 am
Any guesses who is paying the bills?
Media company, prospective politician, political fundraising body?
by bluegreen on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:34 am
If I had a tosser like Evan supporting my position on political matters I’d be asking myself “what the hell am I doing wrong to deserve that crap?”
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:34 am
Definition of a “troll” on PB – Someone who isn’t a Julia Gillard fan.
I guess that covers Rudd supporters, supporters of any other potential Labor Party leader, Green voters, Coalition voters, Independent voters.
Quite a big group!
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:35 am
TLM Would you rather have the Libs leading us into the abyss?
by gigi on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:35 am
http://www.smh.com.au/national/solar-power-has-bright-future–csiro-20120615-20dig.html
by Leroy on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:35 am
bg\
OK, I’ll be a mug.
Clive Palmer? Gina Rinehart?
by ajm on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:36 am
TLM sure no political leader is perfect but to call her an abysmal woman is nearly as silly as saying Tone hates women.
I put this to you, a true test is to say something positive about a person you dislike so I invite you to say at least two positive things about Julia Gillard or forever be silent.
by mexicanbeemer on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:36 am
TLM
How about you address a real issue. What do you think of the revelations that the C’wealth has phone records that it alleges proves collusion between Ashby, Done and others?
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:36 am
Gary
When all of a sudden….. http://tiny.cc/y47wfw
by poroti on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:37 am
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-15/torbay-signs-up-with-nationals-to-tackle-windsor/4072920
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 15, 2012 at 11:38 am