Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/06/11/newspoll-54-46-to-coalition-6/
by Leroy on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Rant on:
Oh come on! What sh$ts me to tears about you and a few others is how your “script” never changes. We’ll all be roooooned unless they bring back St Kevin!!!! There are actually other topics worthy of discussion that have nothing to do with ALP leadersh$t and i for one find it annoying that you and some others are continually trying to keep stirring that pot.
Rant off:
I feel much better now!
by imacca on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:08 pm
TLM
I have not heard any talk of a move against William, he has my fall support to remain leader of the PB party!
I asked you a simple question, asking you to say two positive things about Julia Gillard, I then said three positive things about Kevin Rudd now over to you.
by mexicanbeemer on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:08 pm
BB. Thanks. So he’s trying to get out of producing it.
by middle man on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:08 pm
ctar1
It’ll cost him. QR has already been sold off. Clive’ll need to make a takeover bid at a far higher price than his mate Campbell would’ve let him have it for.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Tom, solly, me heard wRONg
by The Finnigans on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:09 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-15/mal-brough-subpoenaed-in-slipper-case/4072794
by Leroy on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Even after documents have been leaked to the Press??
by imacca on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:10 pm
guytaur @ 4070
What can I possibly add to what is emerging from the court?
I am following it as comments appear here and hearing news bulletins on the radio. I have nothing else I can add.
by bemused on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:10 pm
@lyndalcurtis: ACMA findings on 2GB http://t.co/hJHnhIwx
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:11 pm
….what exactly is “dirty” about ministerial staffers doing the hard yards, that journalists cannot be bothered doing, and discovering from the pubic record ….
But but but but but … it just is. [end of presser]
by Narns on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Dan. The one thing the LNP have in their favour with any sell off is that they will be attaching it to the ‘mountain’ of ALP debt they have found. That’s why they are out there spruiking the size of the debt. It absolves them from the sins they are about to commit.
by middle man on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:11 pm
http://delimiter.com.au/2012/06/15/nbn-sorry-mr-hockey-youre-still-wrong/
by Leroy on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:11 pm
I love QLD. Party gets thrown out for breaking promise not to privatise assetts. New party gets elected to privatise assetts.
by bluegreen on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:13 pm
bemused
Surely you have comment on the ACMA findings about Alan Jones at 2GB.
Let off on the Chaff Bag comments. Apparently inciting violence is acceptable to ACMA.
I find this outrageous. Do you?
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Torbay thing will end in tears.
Stupid decision by Torbay.
by bluegreen on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:14 pm
The Qld public asked for it and they’ve got it.
by Gary on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Well, this is JoHo we are talking about.
He really is a buffoon and should stick to talking about things he knows about like the economy………..
Oh, yeah……….problem huh?
by imacca on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:15 pm
bg. its a salient story about ‘trust’… add it to Mary River, Health payroll etc and you get something that can’t be mended.
by middle man on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:16 pm
bg
I agree. Torbay would have been better off running as an Independent in a neighbouring electorate than against Windsor.
I think it is good for the people of Windsor as it means Windsor will probably run again instead of retiring as he casually talked about a bit earlier.
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Narns
There is a spelling error in there which makes it so
by poroti on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Labor used that excuse too. People either hate losing public assets or they don’t. I don’t think the reason comes into it.
by Gary on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:18 pm
They can’t claim privilege over a document they’ve placed on the record and filed.
by Burgey on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:18 pm
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Actually Windsor has said he will be running again. I remember the interview.
by Gary on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:19 pm
guytaur @ 4114
I haven’t read them yet.
Almost everything Jones says is odious and that struck me as particularly bad.
Now, has that made you feel good and added to your understanding?
by bemused on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:20 pm
ACMA is as useless as tits on a canary.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:20 pm
KJ getting lonelier by the minute.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:21 pm
What is not in the LNP’s favour is the fact that there is no resistance to what they are/will do. The NLP, both federally and at State level run the risk of being a corpulent mass with no muscle tone; particularly between the ears, as a result of the milquetoast scrutiny of their basic policy platform. Qld LNP have essentially no platform, except some vague ‘mandate’.
by JohD on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:21 pm
Windsor can now pin every NSW budget cut on Torbay. He can attack both BoF and Abbott and be the only one who sticks up for New England.
Local Nats hate Torbay. No way that Torbay can jump any queue into any sort of role.
by bluegreen on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:22 pm
Haha. Abbott will hate this. Not only has Labor got worlds best treasurer. Now it has visionary award.
http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/australias-official-digital-visionary-conroy-20120614-20bip.html
by guytaur on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:24 pm
PTMD @ 4126
I think it also has weak legislation to operate under.
The whole media regulation framework needs reform.
by bemused on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Yeah I was wondering that too.
The Commonwealth uses the term “unredacted”. I always thought a redacted document was one where the whole document was presented, but woth parts of it obscured or blanked out.
I never saw one of those.
There was the first document: http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/90720206
and the second document: http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/90720206
… neither of which appear to have redactions.
The second document has several of the incidents that were in the first document omitted, but that’s all I can see.
Perhaps we should send the Commonwealth’s lawyers the above links?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:26 pm
The interesting thing about the Slipper vs Brough vs another LNP candidate is the jockeying of Libs and nats behind the scenes. Joyce is against Brough, apparently. I wonder if Brough is starting to smell a set up against him by people on his own side of politics?
by Lynchpin on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Ha. And the Treasurer has already ruled out assett sales. They are fcked.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/sell-more-assets-costello-recommends-20120615-20e3f.html#ixzz1xpDmRNdC
by bluegreen on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:30 pm
And because Costello did it. They can’t bin it. Rookie error.
I reckon I would be printing bumper sticker for rural and regional queensland.
by bluegreen on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:32 pm
BB, my understand of legal professional privilege is that once something is “out there” it loses it’s privilege. Hence, if an un-redacted copy of the affidavit has been filed or served, I would have thought it would be difficult to argue that privilege should be maintained.
I agree with you re “redacted”. It usually means a document with parts “blacked out” so to speak.
by Lynchpin on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:32 pm
Surprising, but the DT has a story too, although Lewis is not nearly as much “in the frame” as a “conspirator” as he appears to be in the Herald version.
I can smell a “just doing my job as a meek monitor of the news” defence.
That’s the entire story, so no link.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:33 pm
On the redacted, perhaps the alleged conversations were included as appendices at the back, and this the quotes could be taken out of context.
by bluegreen on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:33 pm
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:36 pm
BB
The word “including” is interesting here. I wonder who else might be in the frame for receiving “sensitive material”?
by Lynchpin on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:37 pm
WooHoo. Suck on that Pyne.
by Lynchpin on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:38 pm
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:40 pm
No, I think the redacted parts are simply all the allegations which could lead back to the LNP aren’t hjtey? Including the 2003 alleged conduct.
The 2003 allegation is the thing which links the LNP to Ashby just by being there. It was an allegation against Slipper which everyone agrees was kept “in house” by the LNP. Remember it was allegedly taken to Tony Nutt (iirc) and he told the informant to bin it?
The fact Ashby, employed in 2011 or 2012 even knew about the 2003 allegation means he’s been talking to the LNP, because only the LNP knew about it.
by Burgey on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:40 pm
The redacted bits might be why he did not do the pre-litigation stuff of speaking to his employer etc
by shellbell on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:41 pm
lynchpin
Well spotted! This string could get tanglier.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Anybody… Who/what is Karen Doane?
by Gecko on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:42 pm
So whats the court(s)? say? one of the nephews sick with a bug thats going around school, so had to leave early.
by zoidlord on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:43 pm
@4115 – I reckon the proverbial Drover’s Dog would beat both Whinger and Jokeshot. Good to see they are making sure by putting up solid candidates.
It will end in tears – Oakshot and Windsor. They picked the wrong horse.
#cashforyou – ROTFLMAO
by Compact Crank on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:44 pm
Somebody asked Stephen Spencer who it could go pear shaped for. He replied
by bluegreen on Jun 15, 2012 at 12:44 pm