Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Oh please. There is still an ongoing investigation and court case.
by rummel on Jun 12, 2012 at 11:57 am
AFR op-ed page has halfpage article by director of HRNicholls Society outlining Kathy Jackson as keynote speaker tonight. AFR commences…
by Laocoon on Jun 12, 2012 at 11:58 am
Dio
I remember that. It was strange in the way they attacked her. Too. Making out Falconio was still alive. Must have been awful for the Falconio family just when they thought they could be left alone.
by guytaur on Jun 12, 2012 at 11:58 am
rummel
Oh please what?
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 11:58 am
That’s almost always true, though it’s also a truism and in this case, of limited value.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 12, 2012 at 11:58 am
Vic, expressed very well.
They are having trouble dealing with the fact that the Govt hasn’t.
What they may be coming to realize is that while its always good to be in a position to exploit your opponents mistakes, its remarkably stupid to have your whole strategy relying on your opponent making mistakes AND going into a funk once they have made them.
If the medja do stop doing the bootstrap for the coalition at every opportunity and stop their current practice of avoiding any criticism of them, then the Libs are farqued. They have a very fragile strategy going.
by imacca on Jun 12, 2012 at 11:58 am
Laocoon
Now that is hilarious!!
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 11:59 am
imacca
A strategy that ought be exposed sooner than later
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Victoria
Differences of opinion make the world go around.
by Silky38 on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:01 pm
@MTBW
That was terrible what happened to them. I feel for all the people who went through horrific discrimination like that.
But I’m glad that the country is different now. In those days, many people would have said “Those poofs deserved it”. Nowadays, most people would say “Well of course they should be together like a straight couple”.
And I thank Kevin Rudd and all those responsible in the ALP for removing all discrimination from federal law.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Mysay
You would love that. But I must ask what for? Crimes against good taste, not supporting labor or just being a idiot?
by rummel on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:02 pm
victoria – AFR has been stutchburied
by Laocoon on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:03 pm
I’ve already told the story of how the entire Sydney Channel 9 newsroom decided she was guilty and thereupon set out to tailor their subsequent stories along those lines. The decision was made in an editorial meeting, by a show of hands. I witnessed it as a junior operator there because I’d been given the job of delivering a tape to the news room for them to look at. I arrived and waited for them to conclude the “vote” before handing the tape over to one of the senior editors.
Funnily enough, if anything, I reacted against that decision by deciding to myself she was innocent, but later on fell back on the “Let justice take its course” approach.
I saw many decisions made along those lines. I saw journos take calls from Kerry Packer, telling them how to run a story. Even took one myself, but passed it on to someone more senior.
It really happened: every conspiracy to defame or slander has to start with someone saying, “Let’s do it.”
Does anyone think editorial meetings at the Australian or the Daily Telegraph are any different? I sure don’t.
Ashby, for example, would have been a deliberate decision to culture a witness (Lewis admitted to Hadley he’d been on the case, in contact with Ashby “for some time”, as did Brough and half of the Queensland LNP), coach him and then run the story as an “Exclusive”, hoping to do as much damage with the initial “court documents” as possible. Now, most of the more salacious allegations have been dropped, having done their work.
The hooker in the Thomson case is another case in point: while ACA didn’t run the actual interview, they spewed out its contents lasciviously, in juicy fullness, over several nights. Faced with the demolition of their witness they fell back on suggesting she’d been nobbled or somehow “got at”. Millions probably still believe this.
Thomson will get a very big swimming pool out of Nine over this. As will Slipper get one from his own case.
It’s going to be fun.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Here’s a way of putting it in Newspoll centric terms
Primary Vote
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-REwo2SXEmcw/T8Psmb09lzI/AAAAAAAABDc/myu26xAZuRc/s1600/Newspoll-gillard-Primary%252Bhma.png
Gillard vs Abbott satisfaction
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vKXc8tCZ5Sc/T8Pww4DQvfI/AAAAAAAABEk/R1eXSmTxKSA/s1600/Newspoll-gillard-netsat+loess.png
via this excellent blog filled with economic graphs
http://markthegraph.blogspot.com.au/
There is a tendency on here to focus on Abbott’s rating while ignoring Gillard’s rating. Right now, Gillard is front of mind and the Coalition’s response is “We’re in opposition.” What Gillard should do to counter this line is say that if they don’t want to subject themselves to scrutiny, they should remain in opposition.
Part of the problem tactically is that Gillard doesn’t put the focus squarely back on Abbott. For example today, Abbott’s saying it’s a lie that the Coalition can’t repeal the carbon price. What Gillard (not the ALP, but Gillard) should be doing is getting on talkback radio and asking questions of Abbott such as “Where’ the document to show how it will be done?” “Where are the detailed costings showing what the impact will be to the economy?”, “What impact will this have on the budget bottom line?” and so on and so fourth.
by spur212 on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:05 pm
OK, let’s look at the Newspoll statistics:
- Gillard leads Abbott as preferred PM by 42 to 38.
- Both Gillard and Abbott have virtually identical approval and disapproval figures.
- The 2PP figures are 54/46 in favour of the LNP.
54/46 more than one year before an election.
Latham led Howard 54/46 at a similar time before the 2004 election, yet Howard prevailed.
In 1998 and 2001 Beazley held similar leads over Howard, yet Howard prevailed.
And what about Hewson, recording substantial polling leads at a corresponding period heading to the 1993 election. Keating still won.
Yet, how many morons are STILL calling for a change of Labor leader on this thread?
The Gillard government is doing it well, is on track, and will win in 2013.
by Centre on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:07 pm
I agree. Some do not understand that there can be a grief that is beyond tears. They have the good fortune never to have been there.
by bemused on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Silky38
Agreed
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Australia, the Land of the Dingoes
by The Finnigans on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Exactly why would the PM be having an Economic Summit in Queensland, which is going ticketyboo, when it is NSW, VIC, TAS and SA that are the economic laggards?
Is the weather inviting?
by Compact Crank on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:09 pm
spur212
I am more concerned about this govt going full term than winning at this stage. Good policy and good governance is its best chance of success
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Laocoon
I see James Massola is now writing in the AFR.
The standard of their editorials appears to have dropped in recent times.
by Lynchpin on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:10 pm
beautiful one day, perfect the next CC.
by middle man on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Centre, too many of them painful pavlovian doggys are still barking
by The Finnigans on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:11 pm
AFR has become an outpost of NewsLtd.
It is one of the clearest examples of what happens when there is a lack of diveristy in our media.
by middle man on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:12 pm
Straight from the horses mouth:
Now, let’s see the Rudd fan club spin their way out of that.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:13 pm
DG
Is that tweet for frickin real????
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Rummel, all 3
by outside left on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:15 pm
victoria @ 487
Bookmarked for future hilarity
by Gauss on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Dan
see the _ underscore before the KRudd
Its a fake account
by bluegreen on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Here we go re Ashby:
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/slipper-wants-sex-case-thrown-out-20120612-2074p.html
This wont happen on Friday but it lifts the takes somewhat
by shellbell on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:16 pm
DG
Is that the real keven or the twitter fake who I have fell for before. The fake is almost a identical rip off.
by rummel on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:16 pm
vic
Yep, and to put it in context here’s the tweet that inspired it as well:
https://twitter.com/_KRuddMP/status/212162877900075008
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:16 pm
‘stakes’ even
by shellbell on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:16 pm
I hope it is a fake account.
Gauss
The hilarity is coming from your side. Especially Run rabbott run. I am still laughing.
Anyhow off for a while
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Don’t think so. Rudd’s real twitter name is @KRuddMP (i.e. without the underscore after the “@”), is it not?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:17 pm
DG
I will check it out later. Need to go
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:17 pm
You just gotta love the Tories – such insightful and innovative economic managers.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/home-buyers-hit-as-gst-drop-forces-budget-into-the-red-20120612-2074o.html
by Lynchpin on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:18 pm
Oops, bg is right. It is a fake account. Sorry to all.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:18 pm
Centre
The Gillard government is doing it well on 31% primary vote? Sure it is.
by Silky38 on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:18 pm
On the issue of gay marriage I find ridiculous the suggestion that being able to understand (which is different to agreeing with) the arguments of those who oppose changing the marriage act makes you virulently homophobic.
Frankly that is hysterical rubbish on a par with the people who automatically labels as anti-semitic anyone who supports the concept of a Pelstinian state.
by roaldan1000 on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Compact Crank
You obviously haven’t been listening to CanDo.
He’s been justifying his cost cutting by citing the dire straits Queensland is in economically.
by zoomster on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Positive article about today’s forum in Brisbane:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gillard-seeks-united-front-for-economic-journey-20120612-206vo.html
by Lynchpin on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:21 pm
Finns WOW how unsurprisement!
What about the bloke on Q&A last night blasting the PM for her views on gay marriage?
Sheezus Krist, the Labor Party are allowed to have a conscious vote on the issue, the Coalition will NOT!
The bloke should go and take his frustrations out on Abbott, his abuse of Julia for supposedly not being compassionate was utterly disgraceful and NOT fair.
What about that other angry individual going into bat for Gina and Clive for what they have done to the country. Fair dinkum VOMIT!
by Centre on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:22 pm
shellbell
There was excellent expert opinion available: that of Indigenous people who have traditional tracking skills. Urban whites have no idea at all of just how remarkable these skills are. I have seen it first hand. By comparison, I was, functionally blind.
I recall being on the beach near Yirrkala with some Indigenous youths who were spear fishing. I have been a fisher for over 45 years but I could not see the fish that these teenagers were spearing. I asked them how they did it. This required them to verbalize something they had learned through teaching and through experience. It turns out that the fish themselves were, practically speaking, invisible. The teenagers were spearing them using a mixtere of ripples, fish shadows on the sandy bottoms, anticipated trajectory of the fish, anticipated trajectory of the thrown spear and refraction of the water.
I have other such first hand stories.
By comparison, tracking a dingo carrying/dragging a baby was child’s play.
When someone writes the definitive history of ‘The Great Whitefella Rama Rama Azaria Story’ I do hope that there is a chapter that deals with non-Indigenous cultural ignorance/racism that gave a white guy in medical outfit credence but did not give anything like the same recognition to Indigenous witnesses with the most accomplished skills in the world, vis-a-vis tracking.
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:22 pm
This is also interesting re Ashby:
by Lynchpin on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:24 pm
I remember when Bob Brown on Q&A was asked something by Tony Jones along the lines of why he was supporting Julia Gillard given she was opposed to gay marriage.
Brown responded that Abbott’s views were worse, and Jones seemed to object to that line of conversation.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:24 pm
centre
see my post @379
by guytaur on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:24 pm
BW
From Trevor Morling QC’s report concerning national standards of forensic science and reliance on overseas experts:
http://netk.net.au/NT/NT19.asp
by shellbell on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:27 pm
On another matter, it was amusing to listen to Hadley this morning railing against someone who was suing him, 2GB and a NSW state minister for defamation.
He gave this guy a full bore shellacking. Called him “a liar” and “a thief”, said he “ripped off old ladies” (in his capacity as an allegedly unscrupulous electrician), “bastard” etc. etc.
Wonderful stuff.
Hope Hadley loses.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Thanks BW at 543, a very informative post. A friend of mine who taught in Arnhem Land for 10 years often regales me with stories of the amazing capabilities of the Indigenous people he lived with.
by Lynchpin on Jun 12, 2012 at 12:28 pm