Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
My understanding is that the baby’s clothing was removed later – and found months later somewhere near the rock – and if that’s the case I don’t any problem at all with this explanation.
by Darn on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:39 pm
Darn
Quite so.
by lizzie on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Wow Peter Reith complaining too much religion un a debate Incidentally mentioning he reads the age.
by guytaur on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:43 pm
I find it likewise inconceivable that the Chamberlains murdered their baby, camping at Uluru as there is no motive at all. And a jury is required to be confident beyond all reasonable doubt should have found her not guilty.
Maybe a dingo didn’t take the baby, maybe somebody else interfered and they assumed it was a dingo, or maybe it was indeed a wild dog, or a dingo.
I was there at the time and I can say that there was an overwhelming sentiment that she was guilty even before any evidence became available, all on the basis of how she ‘looked’ and behaved on tv. Everybody wanted her to be guilty before the evidence was even presented.
I recall friends of mine setting themselves up with deck chairs and beer near the court house making a Darwin event out of it.
And I too assumed she was guilty at the time, but for no particular reason that I can recall, since most of us knew nothing except what was gleened from the Newspaper.
The safer decision should have been not guilty.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Laydeeez an Genulmun, Hyper Bowl of the Year award contender the C of E
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/gay-marriage-is-one-of-worst-threats-in-500-years-says-church-of-england-7836852.html
by poroti on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:44 pm
CF: AZARAIA, RAMA RAMA IS AS RAMA RAMA DOES.
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:45 pm
For those interested in drones (aka UAVs)
1. http://theconversation.edu.au/game-of-drones-how-uavs-changed-the-terms-of-war-in-the-middle-east-7580
2. https://theconversation.edu.au/unmanning-the-war-on-terror-attack-of-the-drones-6806
by Pegasus on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:46 pm
sk
I have told the story here about the day a rat tried to take a shortcut along the back fence rail. Knocked down by one dog, it went for broke on the ground.
Dogs 1 – Rat 0
(I felt sorry for it until I realised that if female the existence of about half a million future rats was prevented.)
Terriers are bred hunters. Even straight after a big meal they will sniff and nuzzle bushes, boxes, woodpiles, cupboards or anything looking for something to flush out.
I do not see dingos who hunt to live being any different.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:47 pm
Thomas Paine
Great post!
by MTBW on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:47 pm
poroti
Well, that makes it worse that the Black Death year of 1666, by my calculations: (2012-500 = 1512).
Putting two and two together, as it were, the death by plague of around 30% of the english population is much better than gay marriage.
It stands to reason, IMHO.
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:49 pm
Puff,
I’ve seen them take down rabbits and pigs. No problem.
by Space Kidette on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:49 pm
Having spent a quite a bit of time in courtrooms and paraphrasing a day’s evidence back to a paragraph I can assure you that anyone who relies on media coverage for their grasp of court case has absolutely no idea what they are talking about.
Generally the rule of thumb is that the more such people pontificate the less they actually know.
by roaldan1000 on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:53 pm
boerwar,
It is a common stats measurement.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-99.7_rule
In a nutshell, if something is more than two standard deviations from the mean it is changing in one direction or the other.
More than two standard deviations away means that the value has around a 5% chance of being associated with the mean.
In this case it implies that sea ice levels are reducing substantially.
by deflationite on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:54 pm
a brief reminder of Tony Abbott’s uni days..
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/17/1089694611874.html
by sprocket_ on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:55 pm
poroti
Thanks for links to the drones.
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:56 pm
roaldan1000
I often implore people to go and have a look at sentencing remarks before sounding off as a result of what they see in the media regarding judges’ decisions. For example here is Adelaide’s recent sentencing remarks.
http://www.courts.sa.gov.au/sent_remarks/index.html
by BK on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Boerwar
Not an impossible notion.A Nigerian bishop a couple of years ago said it was better that people died of aids than they use condoms.
by poroti on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:57 pm
I guess the drones mean that Indonesia will be able to buy around 10-30 drones (depending on the kind) for each JSF that we buy?
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:57 pm
OMFG!
by ShowsOn on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:58 pm
boer
1512 would be before the protestant Church of England
by Laocoon on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:58 pm
poroti
Sounds to me like the church militant gone gaga.
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:59 pm
I must say I do like CanDo’s style – none of this “sleeping with the enemy”, giving plum jobs to Tim Fischer, Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson….
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-07/premier-sacks-gladstone-port-board/4056994
by sprocket_ on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:59 pm
News24 crossing live to the PM’s economic forum soon
by guytaur on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Boerwar
Twas “Horsey”. However I will add this drone link.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/11/obama-drone-wars-normalisation-extrajudicial-killing
by poroti on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Laocoon
This is true. But I didn’t make up the 500 year time frame.
Some homophobe in the C of E did.
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Boerwar
Catholic actually.
by poroti on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:01 pm
@sprocket/921
It’s Public Service Style WorkChoices/Surf-choices.
by zoidlord on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:03 pm
Australia has it’s own problems with drones. When will Warren Truss ever leave parliament?
by deflationite on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:04 pm
I live in a hilly area where feral dogs and dingoes let loose when they are no longer wanted as pets, roam around looking for food. Small wallies are fair game for them and they are lethal.
We once watched as the neighbours cows (in our paddock) came racing down the hill with a pack of dogs behind them. 2 dogs were hanging off the back haunches of one cow and another was hanging on to the udder of another cow. The other dogs were jumping at the necks of the cows.
We raced out and managed to get the dogs tearing off in another direction. We had to call in the PPB mob to lay baits up in the areas where the dogs hide out.
It’s really sad to see them because we know they’ve all been dumped at some stage. If they’re hungry they are going to look for food and go for whatever is easiest to get.
by BH on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:05 pm
poroti
For some time I have consigned Mr Obama to the dustbin of all my hopes. His only saving grace is that he is not quite as mad as Mr Romney. That bar is set so low as to be beyond worthwhile consideration.
IMHO, Mr Obama is a murderer. Nothing more; nothing less.
I have often raised the issue of whether we are accountable for the actions of our allies. IMHO, ethically, we are.
Ms Gillard would do well to make it clear that she neither supports, nor endorses, the extra-judicial, extra-jurisdictional murders perpetrated by the US in nations such as Pakistan.
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:05 pm
Whatever else we might say about these polls one thing is now obvious. The government’s pv is nowhere near as low as 26% as Neilsen and the Gillard haters amongst us would have us believe. At worst it is in the low thirthies, which IMO makes it very retrievable.
by Darn on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:05 pm
YEAH!!! AND EVERYONE KNOWS HE IS A KENYAN!
by ShowsOn on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:07 pm
deflationite,
I have to admit whilst I have heard Truss talk that endless drone means I have never actually heard what he has had to say!
by Space Kidette on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:07 pm
poroti
Yep. As a catholic child in a catholic boys school it was made quite plain to us that the church militant was a GOOD THING.
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Indeed. Some might say that the protestant Church of England had its roots in an usual view of a particular royal marriage too
by Laocoon on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:07 pm
TP
That’s one thing – maybe the only thing – I can agree with you about.
by Darn on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Who has claimed Labor’s vote is 26%? That was clearly an outlier.
The Labor primary vote is about 30%, which is horrendous.
by ShowsOn on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:09 pm
by guytaur on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:09 pm
He is probably the closest a politician has ever come to replicating the elusive ‘brown note’ during a speech.
by deflationite on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:10 pm
ShowsOn
Your rhetorical flourish about Mr Obama being Kenyan is a red herring and a pathetic attempt to diminish the murderous nature of Mr Obama. I was very enthusiastic about the election of Mr Obama. My liberal hopes are dashed.
He personally approves the murder of selected targets in Pakistan by way of drone-launched missiles.
There is no accountability; no transparency, and no framework of US or international law for these murders.
Hundreds of Pakistani civilians have been killed in Mr Obama’s campaign of murdering foreigners in a foreign nation without declaring war.
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:11 pm
Warren entsch I get mixed with warren truss most times , both drones,cannot recall seeing them together,but know entsch interferred with abbotts run
by Schnappi on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:11 pm
Laocoon
Yep. A root too far.
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:12 pm
If Labor’s numbers are in fact getting better then we’ll see Abbott and the MSM become a bit more feral. If Howard could bring it back from 46-54 then so can Labor.
by BH on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:12 pm
I AM AGREEING WITH YOU! BARACK OBAMA IS A MURDERING KENYAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by ShowsOn on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Boerwar
How scummy is Obama ? Check this out. Oh and for the veterans of the Obama vs Hilary death match she would have done the same thing.
http://www.salon.com/2011/10/20/the_killing_of_awlakis_16_year_old_son/
by poroti on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Labor’s numbers aren’t getting better. The primary vote is around 30% and the 2pp is about 45%. They have been stuck there for about 16 months. Those numbers are horrendous.
by ShowsOn on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:14 pm
SO
We agree that Mr Obama is a murderer. IMHO, he is not a kenyan. He is a citizen of the US.
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:14 pm
I AGREE HE IS A MURDERING KENYAN!
by ShowsOn on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:16 pm
poroti
I have often thought that extremists feed off each other.
The murder of a 16 year old child means, in an important sense, that El Quaida has won and the West has lost.
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:17 pm
SO
Was your entry in Hansard in caps and was it repeated endlessly? Life does not have to be that way, you know. You have choices.
by Boerwar on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:18 pm