Seat of the week: Chisholm
Chisholm covers a band of suburbs in Melbourne’s electorally sensitive east, from Box Hill and Mont Albert in the north through Burwood and Mount Waverley in the centre to Chadstone, Oakleigh and Clayton in the south. Labor is strongest in the far south, with most of the remainder being naturally marginal and the Mont Albert area leaning Liberal. Reflecting the area’s static population, the redistribution that will take effect at the next election has added around 18,000 voters at Blackburn South, Burwood East and Forest Hill in the east (previously in Deakin), balanced only by the transfer of about 8000 voters around Glen Waverley to Bruce and 1500 in Mont Albert North to Kooyong. Antony Green calculates the changes have shaved 0.3% from the Labor margin, which is now at 5.8%.
Chisholm was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, but was then based on Camberwell and Glen Iris further to the west. It no longer contains any of its original territory, which now bolsters the Liberals in Higgins and Kooyong. Its progressive drift to the east accordingly made a Labor-leaning seat of what had traditionally been a safe one for the Liberals, its members being Wilfrid Kent Hughes until 1970, Tony Staley until 1980 and Graham Harris until 1983. The Liberal grip was loosened by successive swings in 1977, 1980 and 1983, the Labor candidate on each occasion being Helen Mayer, who succeeded on the third attempt. Early Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge recovered the seat for the Liberals in 1987, and held it precariously until he jumped ship to the more secure Casey in 1998. The current Labor member, Anna Burke, prevailed at the 1998 election with a 2.1% margin that was little changed in 2001 and 2004. She finally achieved a secure margin with a 4.7% swing in 2007, before the seat went slightly against the statewide trend with a 1.3% swing to the Liberals in 2010.
Anna Burke had been an industrial officer with the Finance Sector Union before entering parliament, and is aligned with the Right sub-faction associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. She has had two spells as Deputy Speaker since Labor came to power in 2007, the interruption coming after the 2010 election when the government partially bolstered its fragile parliamentary position by having Liberal member Peter Slipper take her place. Burke returned to the role after the government appeared to go one better in having Slipper replace Harry Jenkins as Speaker in November 2011, and her national profile received a considerable boost when allegations of sexual harassment and misuse of taxi dockets compelled Slipper to stand aside in April 2012, leaving her the semi-permanent occupant of the chair.
The Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Vietnamese-born John Nguyen, a partner at Ernst & Young who was five years old when his family fled their native country in 1979. VexNews reports that Nguyen won the preselection ballot ahead of Nicholas Tragas, Telstra executive and Boroondara councillor, and that the two were respectively backed by “the sometimes united Kroger/Costello group” and its traditional rivals associated with Premier Ted Baillieu.
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
From the Coorey article it sounds like the two staffers and brough are in deep doo doo. The govt seems to be implying that they have multiple smoking guns of the ‘let’s get Slipper’ type.
July 26th can’t come soon enough for the govt.
by bluegreen on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:13 am
BB@95
Beautifully summarised
by victoria on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:14 am
LL
Thursday being?
by victoria on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:14 am
Looks like the Labor party have finally twigged about how the current media situation can be used to advantage.
If you know beforehand how they are going to report things then it is possible to strategise to advantage with sufficient planning.
by deflationite on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:15 am
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/06/16/337511_most-popular-stories.html
Tas
government debt levels are the lowest of any state in the nation on a per capita basis, a new analysis reveals.
A state Treasury breakdown reveals the
by my say on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:16 am
What happens on July 26?
by confessions on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:17 am
bg
We have been telling you for months that Ashby and the LNP are un deep do do
by victoria on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:17 am
by guytaur on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:18 am
LyneLady – thanks for the link to the PM’s speech. It was terrific and I’ve sent it to my granddaughter.
I enjoyed everyone’s comments re Albo with Kenny this morning. I thought one comment which was really pertinent was that he voted the way he did in the leadership challenge because there had been no vote the first time round.
That says it all – he’s done what he considered the right thing. He is now excused from voting that way again.
by BH on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:18 am
The media reporting over Slipper and Thomson has been utterly predictable.
by confessions on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:18 am
my say
That makes the Tasmanian Government one of the lowest debt level government in the world.
by guytaur on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:19 am
Albo linking Watergate and Slipper
by guytaur on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:19 am
CTar1 @ 18
I chose the following text from the same article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/15/opinion/how-greece-squandered-its-freedom.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1
This article is a nice counterpoint to the post I made yesterday. In particular it does a good job of giving a sense of the anguish of a decent individual betrayed by the political class and by his fellow-countrymen.
I ended my post yesterday with the question, wtte, ‘Is Australia headed in the same direction?’
It goes to a couple of themes in history that fascinate me:
(1) ‘What do nations and their individuals do when their empires are gone?’
(2) ‘Is Greece merely another symptom in a world historical trend of the the disappearing power of nation states?’
by Boerwar on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:19 am
I left out the author of the article referred to in 112. He deserves to be named:
NIKOS KONSTANDARAS
by Boerwar on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:20 am
Isn’t that when the case reconvenes?
by bluegreen on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:21 am
The succumb to the hordes and vandals.
by bluegreen on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:22 am
They succumb to the hordes and vandals.
by bluegreen on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:22 am
bluegreen:
Thanks.
by confessions on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:23 am
Go Albo – live on 24
by CTar1 on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:23 am
I find it a tad disturbing that Willliam is looking at Chisholm.
This seat really shouldn’t be in play … and it’s kind of offensive that it is in fact in play but that’s how bad things are right now. 50/50 in Victoria federally makes this seat winnable for the Liberals
by spur212 on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:24 am
I think EU states have fallen into the limbo-land of being quasi states / quasi members of a supra-state.
It won’t bode well for further initiatives in multi-lateralism such as climate agreements.
by bluegreen on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:25 am
Sunday Papers are not going to be good for the LNP this week.
by guytaur on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:26 am
How frickin unsurprisement. On ABC 24 Albo was taking questions and they lost the signal.
FFS!
by victoria on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:26 am
@ABCNews24: We have had technical difficulties with our link to @Albomp. We will bring you the rest of Mr Albanese’s comments as soon as we can
by guytaur on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:27 am
spur212
You are getting mighty boring. Here we have a political conspiracy and all you can do is cry the sky is falling. Get a bloody grip
by victoria on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:27 am
BW – A friend sent me the link. He has lots of family there and has just been there – said the sentiment in it was about right.
As you say a worthwile read.
by CTar1 on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:28 am
Also if you want to understand politics, a week is a long time.
by victoria on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:28 am
lol victoria @ 124
by Meguire Bob on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:29 am
But look on the bright side: A 7% swing in Victoria only loses 4 seats …
I guess those loses can be recovered in Queensland and WA …
by spur212 on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:29 am
No, Abbott didn’t lie.
The Tories used to have dirt files, we know this is a fact from previous interviews, unfortunately they don’t now. They have tossed every one of their sleaze stories at the government with none sticking and now all their dirt files are gone, simple really, none left = no dirt files, no lie there.
by HaveAchat on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:30 am
Here is the second part of the video re Slipper set up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymy9hEBdTpI&feature=youtube_gdata_player
by victoria on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:30 am
Yeah lol @ the abc 24 coincidence lost the albanese press conference
by Meguire Bob on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:30 am
Oh, so are you talking to me instead of insulting me now?
by bluegreen on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:31 am
@ABCNews24: Next the stories of the week with fmr NSW Liberal Leader Peter Collins & fmr NSW Labor MP Meredith Burgmann http://t.co/AhggUgUN #auspol
This could be fun.
by guytaur on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:31 am
I’m always wary of statistics from Tasmania given on a per head basis.
by deflationite on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:31 am
spur212:
Commenting here appears to be very bad for your emotional wellbeing. Every day brings more anxiety and fear.
Perhaps the best thing for you to do is to accept that some things are simply out of your control, and that all you can do is to watch how things play out. Fretting about what might be in 18mths time seems wholly counterproductive to me.
by confessions on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:31 am
MB
by victoria on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:31 am
Nice roundup @94 BB,
Just as he was warming up
(P.S. @124 just ignore…)
by Tobe on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:32 am
bg
I never called you a lizard person or the tinfoil hat brigade.
by victoria on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:32 am
Victoria
Oh, yes, right the conspiracies!
Ashby’s case is falling apart. Slipper will be back in the chair in a couple of months.
The Thomson stuff won’t be resolved during this parliament. The ALP will probably preselect a new candidate for Dobell. He’s probably going to have to accept it because the stink surrounding the HSU means that even if he’s innocent, the damage has been well and truly done.
The government won’t fall during this term.
The dogs have barked, the caravans have moved.
by spur212 on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:35 am
The article on Pell indicates he is more of a bully than a machievellian, but he a politican nonetheless. Definitely not a priest interested in spiritual and human welfare.
by bluegreen on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:36 am
I’m not sure of the source, but it seems on Twitter that CUhlmann is complaining about a lack of respect (to him & other journos?) Anyone know the details? If it’s true, it’s the joke of the day.
by lizzie on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:36 am
I hope the government continues to pressure abbott, pyne and who else were involved in the ashby/slipper case
by Meguire Bob on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:37 am
confessions
This is meant to be a pseph blog. I’m trying to look at the reality of the situation and it’s very grim.
Thanks for the concern about my mental health but I’m fine
by spur212 on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:38 am
It’s unlikely to happen, but I’d love to see Slipper take the chair next week and stare down the troglodytes in the opposition.
by confessions on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:38 am
Sounds like the usual gripes heard at a used-car salesman conference.
by bluegreen on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:38 am
Victoria
Why are you being so bloody nasty to Spur?
Look the Slipper affair is OK news for Labor and bloody awful news for SOME liberals.
BUT it is NOT a game changer. Lotsa fun and all but not a big political event.
The real impact is that it destroys Brough, the great white hope of the Libs. Even if he wins the preselection (and the seat) his chances of an easy ride to LNP leadership are seriously damaged.
The whole POINT to the Slipper affair was to get him OUT of Parliament, so that Brough could be elected in a by-election and take over the leadership.
Now the Libs are forced to plan B (or C or D)
The good news for Labor is that it will keep Abbott as LOTO
by daretotread on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:39 am
Spur
it is perfectly reasonable to be fretting about losing government to Tony Abbott in a landslide.
and BTW I think Chisolm is Bemused’ home patch.
by bluegreen on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:40 am
BW
‘Entitlement’ and short term decisions that have eroded the tax base are a worry.
by CTar1 on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:41 am
Morning All
Read somewhere that the texts in the Slipper case will be given to someone by noon on Monday – wonder if they will be made public???
I think it’s July 23 rather than 26 – might get buried by the Olympics
by womble on Jun 16, 2012 at 10:41 am