Seat of the week: Chisholm
Chisholm covers a band of suburbs in Melbourne’s electorally sensitive east, from Box Hill and Mont Albert in the north through Burwood and Mount Waverley in the centre to Chadstone, Oakleigh and Clayton in the south. Labor is strongest in the far south, with most of the remainder being naturally marginal and the Mont Albert area leaning Liberal. Reflecting the area’s static population, the redistribution that will take effect at the next election has added around 18,000 voters at Blackburn South, Burwood East and Forest Hill in the east (previously in Deakin), balanced only by the transfer of about 8000 voters around Glen Waverley to Bruce and 1500 in Mont Albert North to Kooyong. Antony Green calculates the changes have shaved 0.3% from the Labor margin, which is now at 5.8%.
Chisholm was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, but was then based on Camberwell and Glen Iris further to the west. It no longer contains any of its original territory, which now bolsters the Liberals in Higgins and Kooyong. Its progressive drift to the east accordingly made a Labor-leaning seat of what had traditionally been a safe one for the Liberals, its members being Wilfrid Kent Hughes until 1970, Tony Staley until 1980 and Graham Harris until 1983. The Liberal grip was loosened by successive swings in 1977, 1980 and 1983, the Labor candidate on each occasion being Helen Mayer, who succeeded on the third attempt. Early Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge recovered the seat for the Liberals in 1987, and held it precariously until he jumped ship to the more secure Casey in 1998. The current Labor member, Anna Burke, prevailed at the 1998 election with a 2.1% margin that was little changed in 2001 and 2004. She finally achieved a secure margin with a 4.7% swing in 2007, before the seat went slightly against the statewide trend with a 1.3% swing to the Liberals in 2010.
Anna Burke had been an industrial officer with the Finance Sector Union before entering parliament, and is aligned with the Right sub-faction associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. She has had two spells as Deputy Speaker since Labor came to power in 2007, the interruption coming after the 2010 election when the government partially bolstered its fragile parliamentary position by having Liberal member Peter Slipper take her place. Burke returned to the role after the government appeared to go one better in having Slipper replace Harry Jenkins as Speaker in November 2011, and her national profile received a considerable boost when allegations of sexual harassment and misuse of taxi dockets compelled Slipper to stand aside in April 2012, leaving her the semi-permanent occupant of the chair.
The Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Vietnamese-born John Nguyen, a partner at Ernst & Young who was five years old when his family fled their native country in 1979. VexNews reports that Nguyen won the preselection ballot ahead of Nicholas Tragas, Telstra executive and Boroondara councillor, and that the two were respectively backed by “the sometimes united Kroger/Costello group” and its traditional rivals associated with Premier Ted Baillieu.
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
‘fess: Well, indeed. There is no way the media wouldn’t have gotten wind of it somehow: look at how quickly they jumped onto the Labor “kiddie porn” Minister.
And remember that this is the same state – same media.
One rule for the Libs, another rule for Labor.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:05 am
Tricot
It’s not your imagination. I very much agree with your comments.
by leone on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:06 am
guytaur
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Torbay
by MTBW on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:06 am
daretotread @ 1358
I am led to wonder about Finnigans and his mental capacity.
Apart from his persistent incivility and name calling, he seems to lack the ability to construct a grammatically correct sentence. I am not referring to the occasional lapses everyone makes, but a consistent pattern.
I would put him at about grade 3 level.
by bemused on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:07 am
Billie: It is odd, that’s my point. Nothing more, nothing less.
But if you WERE arguing it might indicate a history of such behaviour and that this is just the first time she’d been caught … then it would be wise to say nothing further so as to prevent Mr Bowe from exposure to litigation
by Danny Lewis on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:09 am
MTBW
You are wrong. Torbay himself confirmed this fact on Insiders this morning that he used to belong to the Labor Party. Live on National Television.
by guytaur on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:09 am
ML
Why not just admit you are a rusted on Liberal and a Bigot!.
by 1934pc on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:09 am
Torbay’s a bit confused, but I don’t think it’ll count against him. If he gets preselected he’ll probably win that seat, especially if Windsor doesn’t run. He just knows the best path to becoming an MP is to hitch to a party, and however he explains it away is immaterial. It’ll make him an ineffective MP of course, because indications are he has no personal political stance to stand up for. So it’s all a bit meh.
by Aguirre on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:10 am
guytaur
Did he say when?
by MTBW on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:10 am
guytaur
Did Torbay confirm this on Insiders?
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:11 am
I have always found Mod Lib to be polite. There are others, OTOH…
by lizzie on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:11 am
MTBW
Yes he did. See the Dastaryi Tweet I posted for period. He has access to the records remember. Dastaryi can prove it so of course Torbay did not deny it when Cassidy put the question to him.
by guytaur on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:13 am
Danny:
Yes I’d forgotten about that bloke. The comparisons are indeed stark.
There must’ve been some huge favour pulled for the media to ignore MJF right up until the new Senate came in.
by confessions on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:13 am
victoria
yes
by guytaur on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:13 am
The mood of the electorate?
Anyone’s guess really but I would say largely still not switched in and just watching from the sidelines.
Sullen might be one word to describe it.
I sense the really, really dark days of last winter seem to have brightened a bit for Labor.
Having already got the “Gillard is No Good” headline shoved down their throats for months now, some of the electorate are now asking themselves the question that if she is “no good” how come she is kind of still there?
I sense there is now a kind of grudging respect for the PM.
I was very surprised to hear on Red Neck Radio 6PR in Perth, just last Friday, some non-friend of Labor predict a significant jump in the polls for Labor in the next few months. Not enough to “win” mind you, but enough to put some furrows in the brows of the conservatives. He was talking in terms of 4-5% TPP.
His prognostication came, oddly enough, from the recent setting aside of the proposals for marine parks, he believing that this appealed to the traditional Labor strongholds -especially in NSW.
Who he referred to, of course, is the 6-8% of the PV which is currently AWOL for Labor and a “must-get-back” group.
The point for the government now, as opposed to this time last year, is that there are runs on the board and, increasingly, these cannot be ignored. It was all “going to be’s” last year. It is now largely “have done’s”. Something to really work with.
Despite all that has been thrown at her personally, and the best efforts of the conservative media to destroy her and Labor – not to mention the so-called “Labor supporters” doing their best to aid and abet the conservatives – people are somewhat puzzled that the government seems to be here to stay until the next election.
And………..all other things being equal ………….that will be sometime later in 2013.
My guess is the telling time for Labor will be October/November/December of this year.
If matters still seem to be dragging for Labor, and there is a mood for a change of leader – which is largely not the case at the moment – then a choice has to be made to stick with JG until the election, or bring somebody “new” (and it would likely be Rudd despite all) in to give them time to (re)establish themselves.
My hope is that JG will see it through.
I prefer her to fight it out to the end rather than have the turmoil of yet another, destructive, “leadership” battle from within.
Who, at the end of the day, would vote for Labor if the NSW mess of revolving leaders were set in train?
I do believe that after one more budget and a likely robust election campaign all those soothsayers who are predicting some kind of Labor Armageddon in 2013 will be very disappointed.
by Tricot on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:13 am
Everybody rabbits on about “rights”, but I think that the real separation of church and state would do a lot more good, especially wrt same-sex marriage.
by lizzie on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:14 am
Danny
I think there is much in what you say BUT we should probably respect due process now that she is acquitted.
The whole thing was VERY odd, but best ignored now.
by daretotread on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:14 am
guytaur
I didn’t watch Insiders so I wouldn’t know what was said. If I am wrong so be it!
by MTBW on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:16 am
So be it indeed
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:16 am
Bemused 1388
The ALP members I know are capable of holding a civil discussion and don’t resort to name calling and bullying.
Bemused 5079
bemused
Posted Saturday, June 16, 2012 at 1:14 a
Just read the crap vomited out by Rossmore for example.
Pot/Kettle
by Rossmore on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:17 am
lizzie@1395
Abbott couldn’t hold down a regular job – he wouldn’t have time for bikeriding, running, playing in the gym, telling porkies, making pigs fly and sometimes great big heffalumps!
by BH on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:18 am
Aguirre,
OK, so there is a “he said, she said” aspect in this over just who made the suggestion over him beccoming premier.
What we do know is that he was a member of the ALP, then Indie, and now a Nat.
So your right, the punters will just see another pollie that stands for nothing.
by Mick Collins on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:18 am
Separation of church and state is an American thing. I don’t think it applies to the Australian States.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:19 am
bemused@1403:
Re Finns:
I have always assumed that english is not Finns’ native language.
Does a good job of it if that is the case. Most Australians can barely master (often not) one language, Strine.
by don on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:19 am
Well, the Greeks have something to celebrate today Greece 1 Russia 0: match report
Match report follows.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:19 am
MTBW and Victoria
Torbay actually said that yes he was a member of the Labor party but has always been elected as an independent (even when as Mayor).
You are both sort of right. Victoria – no need for gratuitous nastiness
by daretotread on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:20 am
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:21 am
Previous posts 1065, 1107 on James Joyce Bloomsday (thanks PatricaWA) reminded me of some choice phrases in that book. This is my favourite “what is the meaning of life?” answer.
I thought Fran might like that.
My other favourite Joyce phrase is 8 words in a perfectly balanced sentence that starts the chapter about pointy-heads arguing over Shakespeare in a library.
That is for William. I often think of him as a Quaker Moderator purring his gentle admonishments.
by Phil Vee on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:21 am
Don
Are you suggesting Finnigans is a native Gaelic speaker? Name like Finnigans I doubt he is Greek or Chinese.
by daretotread on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:22 am
Dtt
I suggest you don’t have a clue
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:23 am
Mick Collins @ 1374
Seems a very succinct statement of the position.
by bemused on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:24 am
http://www.richardtorbay.com.au/regions-history.php
it shows the northern tablelands part of new england leans more towards labor
by Meguire Bob on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:24 am
Don: totally aside from the fact it was an exceptionally rude thing to say anyway.
Someone having English as a second language or a literacy problem or any sort of intellectual disability should not prevent them from participating in any online forum, even a political one like this.
Everyone should have the right to express an opinion, regardless of how well or badly they do so.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:25 am
Torbay is going against his own electorate and the bigger sector of new england by joining the nationals
by Meguire Bob on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:26 am
MB
Are you in the New England electorate
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:27 am
DL
+7
by guytaur on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:28 am
1934pc @ 1406
ML makes no secret of being a Lib, but I have seen no evidence of him/her being a bigot.
by bemused on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:28 am
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/why-the-truth-is-hard-to-dig-up-on-labors-dirt-unit/story-e6frezz0-1226397576462
by Leroy on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:30 am
DTT@1428:
Nothing of the sort. The name is a nom-de-plume, just as Finns pretends to be a dolphin, and I pretend to be 10,000 years old.
I think Finns is from Asia somewhere, and whether this is the case or not, I’m completely in agreement with Danny Lewis on this one:
by don on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:32 am
Morning all
Tricot, Leone,Vic… apologies if it is my late night posts that have lowered the standard.
by Gecko on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:33 am
Gecko
You put up a good fight!! No need to apologise
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:34 am
Rossmore @ 1419
Ahhh, my stalker returns, again with nothing new to say.
by bemused on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:35 am
TLM: Labor won’t run in Lyne?
You misunderstand the two reasons Labor runs in electorates they have little chance of winning:
1) If the 4% cut off is reached every vote is worth $3.50 (something near that anyway) from the electoral commission. As the party spends nothing on these campaigns, this is pure profit.
2) To allow significant handing out of HTVs for the Senate
Labor will certainly run for Lyne and I can tell you who the candidate will most likely be. To campaign directly for Oakeshott would play directly into the Nats hands. A lot of people who normally help Labor will be supporting Oakeshott this time but then again so will a few Nats. This has nothing to do with the parties.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:36 am
So, in other words, the “dirt file” story was just fed to Alexandra Kirk, who ran with it without checking it properly.
One Minister said he knew nothing about it.
One backbencher said he did.
Did she stop for a moment to question the motives of those promoting the story?
I bet not.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:36 am
Gecko – never!
by leone on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:36 am
Yep. I’m less interested in his previous political positions – it is possible to switch sides if you have some compelling reason for doing so – than I am about his current reason for joining the Nationals. His arguments against running as an independent didn’t come across as convincing. After sort of attacking the idea of Windsor as an independent, he backtracked considerably to praise a lot of what Windsor had done, and claimed a friendship with him. It was all over the place.
by Aguirre on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:37 am
It doesn’t. Our national constitution was framed in the last decade of a century in which anti-clericalism/ secularism was a major movement. It also came after a far from a non-abusive and rational “exchange of views” between vitriolic Henry Parkes (and many others) and a dictatorial Papal Nuncio – a visit following the Vatican’s loss of its Papal States to Garibaldi’s army and the creation of a secular Italian State. Parkes rightly feared his influence, enforced by at least one Oz-specific mortal sin created to force Catholic Parents to send their children to Catholic schools.
Parkes (d.1896) was Federation’s most passionate & influential “mover and shaker”, especially for a secular Constitution. In this he was supported by those who pushed secular public education through state Houses.
Our national Constitution is, as Parkes hoped, Secular, and deliberately so.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:38 am
I don’t believe that Parkes was necessarily that committed to secularism but he was certainly very good at playing the Orange Card.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:41 am
If New England ever decide against Windsor… I’ll have him.
by Gecko on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:41 am
Thanks for extra background, OzPol.
I was, of course, using Church and State in the generic sense, not Vic, NSW, etc.
by lizzie on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:43 am