Seat of the week: Chisholm
Chisholm covers a band of suburbs in Melbourne’s electorally sensitive east, from Box Hill and Mont Albert in the north through Burwood and Mount Waverley in the centre to Chadstone, Oakleigh and Clayton in the south. Labor is strongest in the far south, with most of the remainder being naturally marginal and the Mont Albert area leaning Liberal. Reflecting the area’s static population, the redistribution that will take effect at the next election has added around 18,000 voters at Blackburn South, Burwood East and Forest Hill in the east (previously in Deakin), balanced only by the transfer of about 8000 voters around Glen Waverley to Bruce and 1500 in Mont Albert North to Kooyong. Antony Green calculates the changes have shaved 0.3% from the Labor margin, which is now at 5.8%.
Chisholm was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, but was then based on Camberwell and Glen Iris further to the west. It no longer contains any of its original territory, which now bolsters the Liberals in Higgins and Kooyong. Its progressive drift to the east accordingly made a Labor-leaning seat of what had traditionally been a safe one for the Liberals, its members being Wilfrid Kent Hughes until 1970, Tony Staley until 1980 and Graham Harris until 1983. The Liberal grip was loosened by successive swings in 1977, 1980 and 1983, the Labor candidate on each occasion being Helen Mayer, who succeeded on the third attempt. Early Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge recovered the seat for the Liberals in 1987, and held it precariously until he jumped ship to the more secure Casey in 1998. The current Labor member, Anna Burke, prevailed at the 1998 election with a 2.1% margin that was little changed in 2001 and 2004. She finally achieved a secure margin with a 4.7% swing in 2007, before the seat went slightly against the statewide trend with a 1.3% swing to the Liberals in 2010.
Anna Burke had been an industrial officer with the Finance Sector Union before entering parliament, and is aligned with the Right sub-faction associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. She has had two spells as Deputy Speaker since Labor came to power in 2007, the interruption coming after the 2010 election when the government partially bolstered its fragile parliamentary position by having Liberal member Peter Slipper take her place. Burke returned to the role after the government appeared to go one better in having Slipper replace Harry Jenkins as Speaker in November 2011, and her national profile received a considerable boost when allegations of sexual harassment and misuse of taxi dockets compelled Slipper to stand aside in April 2012, leaving her the semi-permanent occupant of the chair.
The Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Vietnamese-born John Nguyen, a partner at Ernst & Young who was five years old when his family fled their native country in 1979. VexNews reports that Nguyen won the preselection ballot ahead of Nicholas Tragas, Telstra executive and Boroondara councillor, and that the two were respectively backed by “the sometimes united Kroger/Costello group” and its traditional rivals associated with Premier Ted Baillieu.
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
DDT
1. Lose your job.
2. I can’t think of any other sanction.
3. It is a crime.
by shellbell on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:02 pm
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:03 pm
(aturday, June 16, 2012 Remember the census? It’s about to change, big-time See below for a profile of the man with the ideas, Brian Pink
The avalanche of census data due for release Thursday is just a taste of what’s to come.)
Well we did our previous one on line
by my say on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:04 pm
leone
Perhaps not Roy directly, but indirectly. Nothing would surprise me. In fact, atm I am seriously entertaining it. Call me loopy
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Tony Abbott Is On Work Experience (with a hat-tip to Lizzie @1395)
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Bemused
There is no real precedent for what you are proposing so there is not much I can say
by shellbell on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Dan G
by lizzie on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:08 pm
http://www.economist.com/node/21556921?frsc=dg|a
worth a read
by Leroy on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Abbott is a little man, and I am not talking about stature. He is too little of everything should be to be a Prime Minister. His mind, his morality, his attitudes, his vision, his understanding, his tolerance, his bravery, his capacity for innovation and his concept of this country are too small.
He is a little man, and nasty with it.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:09 pm
BK & Puff – how about toasts against them! Betcha the lady giving you glances wanted to join you. Is Norwood and Donny D’s old seat still Labor territory?
by BH on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:09 pm
victoria
If you are loopy then so am I. I’d love to see a connection.
by leone on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:13 pm
That Ashby has done nothing of the sort might be an indication that he’s on a very tight leash. I’ve been suspicious all along of the timing of his acceptance of the advisor position and the circumstances under which he got it. Especially his having turned it down twice before.
I guess if there are strings being pulled it will all come out in due course. But the idea that he was a ‘honey trap’ seems the likeliest. Short-term mission, with a brief to get anything incriminating possible within the timeframe.
by Aguirre on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:15 pm
BH
Norwood is now held by Stephen Marshall (who I had dealings with when he ran the now defunct Marshall Furniture). He is a first term Liberal MP with some leadership ambition.
by BK on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:16 pm
leone
I am going with ru’s comments that either the LNP love or hate strawberry farms. Ru told us months in advance that Slipper was going to quit the LNP and he did.
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:16 pm
That’s it. They finally did it.
I’m F*^&%N FULLY GOBSMACKED!!!!!!!!
by Ian on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:17 pm
BH – Leone might know more but i believe Fred Lipps (local Dr who stood for labor at last election) is heading a labor team – Lipps is very personable and very popular in the area. The Glasshouse is costing us $6mill a year in upkeep and likely to increase rapidly – that is where our rates are going – our roads are full of potholes…
by Lyne Lady on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Finnigans 1483
Are the dolphins’ “sounds” one of the 4 languages you know or one of the 5 dialects?
by gigi on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:20 pm
From a News Ltd point of view this Ashby case could be massive.
I recall a tweet from British MP Tom Watson a day or two ago who was showing interest in the case.
If Steve Lewis is found to have been colluding in what possibly may be a stitch-up of the Speaker with the aim of bringing down a democratically elected govt, you can be sure Australia will be linked to form an international view of News Corps ethics.
This case has huge implications.
by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:20 pm
Barnaby Joyce, the ultimate hayseed Luddite.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-17/joyce-dismisses-marine-park-laws/4075396
by BK on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:21 pm
BH
About the council stuff – we’ve had a few put their hands up
A Greens team of three.
A Labor team of four.
A local former dentist (female)who’s running on an anti-fluoride thing.
Some bloke who wants to be mayor (seems to be a closet Fib but won’t say).
Another bloke from Wauchope who wants to be mayor but doesn’t believe in reports and committees. Also keeping quiet on his political affiliations.
A very young bloke who is said to be a Fib but won’t say.
So far that’s about it, the Nats are too busy sorting out their federal preselection to bother. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the former sacked councillors tried again.
by leone on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:21 pm
And cute little pixies sit on toadstools at the bottom of my garden! I sell tickets.
D’ya think MalB might be interested in maps of Lassiter’s Gold Mine? Genuine, of course! My Nigerian friends will furnish guarantees of its viability. They’re financing it!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Geoff Thomas @Geofftheplumber
The footage of me on #qanda questioning @JuliaGillard over why my gay son cannot get married in this country http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqxn0R5cnHA&feature=player_embedded
For those wanting to see the chap on QANDA taking JG to task over gay marriage …
by Fran Barlow on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:28 pm
Flipper Boy
Please tell me you aren’t including English as one of those four languages.
by Diogenes on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:28 pm
BK – Does he have a chance of taking the leadership from Redmond?
LyneLady – I did hear a session on road conditions on local ABC a few weeks ago and most of the calls did come from the Pt Macq area.
by BH on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:28 pm
http://blog.taramoss.com/index.php?itemid=798
worth a read
by Leroy on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Rex,
That info about Tom Watson’s tweet is interesting. I was wondering if/when someone would run with the smoke rising over the goings-on here and the mess being uncovered in the UK through Leveson.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Oc – that’s interesting. I’ve never really immersed the old brain in things about Parkes but will definitely start reading now. Is your paper anywhere on line?
by BH on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Brough is obviously of the opinion that a PR campaign will see him through. Only, the last time he tried that tactic, by having him and his wife on National media to explain his role in the Ashby matter, more questions emerged than answers.
Obviously, today’s insistence that he ordered the Lawyers to release his phone records came after they were subpoened. So, he’s playing the “I have nothing to hide” card, again. As Rocky often said to Bullwinkle, “That trick never works!”
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:37 pm
Finns
I have always assumed your grammar ‘mistakes’ are flippant humour.
by lizzie on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:37 pm
Diogs,
Finns speaks the Universal language.
“Diogs is wRONg”
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Hi BH
It is but behind a paywall
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10314610208596223
Another version of it is being published as a book chapter in September – I will give you a copy at our next meeting.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:40 pm
NyTimes story on Wendi Deng Murdoch
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/17/fashion/wendi-murdoch-is-creating-a-career-of-her-own.html
by sprocket_ on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:42 pm
perhaps they were visiting a strawberry farm!
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:42 pm
GG
As OPT said, Brough believes in pixies at the bottom of the garden
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:43 pm
leone – thanks. I’ll watch with interest.
Puff – Tom Watson has been keeping an eye on Oz NewsLtd for awhile and often tweets about it. He’d have a nice file on Oz and the US by now.
by BH on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Lovely, thanks OC. Will do a bit of reading in the meantime.
by BH on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:46 pm
vic,
I don’t know about pixies, but he certainly seems to have been taken in by fairy tales from Mr Ashby.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:46 pm
The Today Show on Channel 9 refer to Wyatt Roy’s parents being in the picture of the Gowinta Farms offering – not totally reliable about 37 seconds in
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJn7hkSWrVU
from “James”
by billie on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:47 pm
just checking up on the ownership of Gowinta Farms (erstwhile previous employer of James Ashby). Name registred in 2002, but funny that both ASIC company search is unavailable and QLD court of Appeal web site is down where they were sued by multiple people for money owing (dudded strawberry pickers I guess, but hey, this is QLD). And to round things out, Gowinta’s own web site is down.
Maybe will be back up tomorrow?
by sprocket_ on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Re Port Macquarie hastings council.
There is certainly still a lot of anger about the last Nat led council. The loss of $6m a year is resented and seen daily in the lack of maintenance – the roads are lierally falling apart. This is the first time Labor is putting up a team and frankly I can’t see it getting far. If there are independents who have some linkage to Oakeshott it will be interesting to see how they go.
A few people have told me that they feel little choice with the Fed election. They believe the Oakeshott betrayed us crap but aren’t willing to go back to the Nats.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:47 pm
That’s been a common theme here since late April, when the story broke.
News Ltd. have bet the farm on this one, no two ways about it.
Murdoch gave a pretty clear call to arms at the time too, via a tweet about “grubby” goings-on in Australia, and how we needed an election to ensure “a fresh start”. It would have been hard to be clearer.
Well, now they’ve got their scandal, at exactly the wrong time for News Ltd.
Ashby and Lewis thought they were bullet-proof. Brough was probably trying to toady to the LNP by delivering a governmental handover. He was caught out lying, and there’s no reason to believe his stories now. His credibility value is in “penny-stock” class.
Handing over his records is a stunt. Either the government already had them, or they were handed over under subpoena. In any case, the government should take them, because if they are found to be deficient, then Brough is in even more trouble for omitting evidence.
Phone records available to the subscriber don’t usually show calls received, anyway. They only show calls made. It will be nice to know who made calls to Brough, and when. For example, a call from Pyne at about 11.30pm on March 19th (just after his meeting with Ashby, and three days before Ashby’s first meeting with Brough) would be lead in Brough’s saddlebags, and Pyne’s.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Bullshit. Stop trying to re-write history. Gillard was cruising to a comfortable victory before the leaks occurred. Even Laurie Oakes and Graham Richardson have acknowledged as much. And in Richardson’s case he was astounded that Gillard still managed to win, despite the damage the leaks did at such a critical stage in the campaign.
by Darn on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:48 pm
slowly the worm is turning (maybe)
by sprocket_ on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:50 pm
billie
Great get! Well that confirms it. The Roy family run the Gowinta strawberry farm and Asbhy was the marketing manager there. Hello sailor!!!!
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:51 pm
BH
The jungle drums are quietly beating regarding the probability of Isabel Redmond being tossed. Marshall’s name comes up occasionally, but I don’t think he is of the stuff.
by BK on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:53 pm
I’m sure Tom would be interested to get a gauge of the growing concern of Australians as to what they think of NewsLtds dealings
by Rex Douglas on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:53 pm
BB
News Ltd complicity is obvious. They devoted a tiny paragraph on page 24 re Slipper in today’s Herald Scum. You needed a magnifying glass to find it.
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:53 pm
gg
I see what you did there.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:53 pm
1558 PTMD
How could TA possibly be “tall” with such “small” political parents?
by gigi on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Hate to burst the bubble,
by Space Kidette on Jun 17, 2012 at 1:55 pm