Seat of the week: Chisholm
Chisholm covers a band of suburbs in Melbourne’s electorally sensitive east, from Box Hill and Mont Albert in the north through Burwood and Mount Waverley in the centre to Chadstone, Oakleigh and Clayton in the south. Labor is strongest in the far south, with most of the remainder being naturally marginal and the Mont Albert area leaning Liberal. Reflecting the area’s static population, the redistribution that will take effect at the next election has added around 18,000 voters at Blackburn South, Burwood East and Forest Hill in the east (previously in Deakin), balanced only by the transfer of about 8000 voters around Glen Waverley to Bruce and 1500 in Mont Albert North to Kooyong. Antony Green calculates the changes have shaved 0.3% from the Labor margin, which is now at 5.8%.
Chisholm was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, but was then based on Camberwell and Glen Iris further to the west. It no longer contains any of its original territory, which now bolsters the Liberals in Higgins and Kooyong. Its progressive drift to the east accordingly made a Labor-leaning seat of what had traditionally been a safe one for the Liberals, its members being Wilfrid Kent Hughes until 1970, Tony Staley until 1980 and Graham Harris until 1983. The Liberal grip was loosened by successive swings in 1977, 1980 and 1983, the Labor candidate on each occasion being Helen Mayer, who succeeded on the third attempt. Early Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge recovered the seat for the Liberals in 1987, and held it precariously until he jumped ship to the more secure Casey in 1998. The current Labor member, Anna Burke, prevailed at the 1998 election with a 2.1% margin that was little changed in 2001 and 2004. She finally achieved a secure margin with a 4.7% swing in 2007, before the seat went slightly against the statewide trend with a 1.3% swing to the Liberals in 2010.
Anna Burke had been an industrial officer with the Finance Sector Union before entering parliament, and is aligned with the Right sub-faction associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. She has had two spells as Deputy Speaker since Labor came to power in 2007, the interruption coming after the 2010 election when the government partially bolstered its fragile parliamentary position by having Liberal member Peter Slipper take her place. Burke returned to the role after the government appeared to go one better in having Slipper replace Harry Jenkins as Speaker in November 2011, and her national profile received a considerable boost when allegations of sexual harassment and misuse of taxi dockets compelled Slipper to stand aside in April 2012, leaving her the semi-permanent occupant of the chair.
The Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Vietnamese-born John Nguyen, a partner at Ernst & Young who was five years old when his family fled their native country in 1979. VexNews reports that Nguyen won the preselection ballot ahead of Nicholas Tragas, Telstra executive and Boroondara councillor, and that the two were respectively backed by “the sometimes united Kroger/Costello group” and its traditional rivals associated with Premier Ted Baillieu.
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Victoria
Another teaser.
What does a strawberry farm have to do with a former Qld National Party Premier, a former Wallaby Rugby Union star, a Mayor and Mal Brough?
by ruawake on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Kevvie knows how to rivet an audience.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnp1-D4J2Ts&feature=youtu.be
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:05 pm
ru
I am not a Qlder, nor a follower of Rugby Union, but I will try. Need to surf the net.
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:06 pm
I’ve been hearing a lot from the Victorian Labor opposition lately.
The Ballarat West MP Sharon Knight appears in the local newspaper and is interviewed on the radio quite often.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Oooops sorry Qld National Party Leader not Premier.
by ruawake on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:08 pm
I think the Coalition ended once Labor formed government.
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:08 pm
About the Victorian parliament – sorry, I was needed for something trival just as I was about to post this -
Victorian Constitution Act 1975
Section 44
it isn’t clear on what happens if you are convicted of an offence while you are a sitting member. I supose Section 46 covers it though –
by leone on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Lizzie @ 1735
Correct. Quantifiable data is one thing but emotive reaction isn’t easily quarantined. One of the many reasons current polls are not the be-all and end-all in my view.
by Gecko on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Yes, all the polls over the last year or 18 months have shown Labor losing, so they are all clearly wrong and should be ignored.
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:15 pm
The ever ironical Kevvie talks about “Kevvie the stool pigeon” with a constituent.
Kevin Rudd @KRuddMP
Bumped into ‘One Direction Dad’ @AnthonyLee59 at a school fete today. We had a chat about Kevin the Pigeon http://youtu.be/74pSjzOChdg KRudd
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:15 pm
GG
You are being mischievious!!
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:15 pm
I am hearing whispers about a Former Australian politician who represented the seat of Toowoomba South in the Queensland Legislative Assembly as being tied up in Strawberrygate.
All malicious gossip of course.
by ruawake on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:16 pm
ru
I dont really have any idea, but does it relate to aboriginal land rights?
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:17 pm
From ZH (I have added Sydney times)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-election-cheat-sheet
by Laocoon on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Mike Horan
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:19 pm
(Sigh)
by Gecko on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Mike Horan who son was?
Who were with Joan Sheldon, Mal Brough and James Ashby at the same time when …
by ruawake on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:21 pm
LNP Kabuki Theatre.
http://twitpic.com/9wz8tt
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Lyne Lady,
I have been sending a fair bit to the Guardian to, although to date, it hasn’t had an airing.
by Space Kidette on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:23 pm
ru
Rugby player Tim Horan?
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:24 pm
Yep.
by ruawake on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:25 pm
ru
Were together at the same time at a strawberry farm?
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:27 pm
Labor really hammering Brough and the LNP.
http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland-lnp-identity-mal-brough-implicated-by-labor-for-involvement-in-peter-slipper-sexual-harrassment-claims/story-e6frfkvr-1226397907353
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:27 pm
ru
Has this got something to do with the LNP merger?
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:28 pm
scorps
daretotread explained that this morning. He had been an ALP branch member in the past but he ran as an Independant Member of Parliament.
Thanks
by MTBW on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:29 pm
It is impolite to burp without brackets.
by Gecko on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:31 pm
I don’t think this will damage Brough. If he wins pre-selection he will win Slipper’s seat at the next election.
Having said that, I have no idea what the LNP sees in Brough, he only managed to lose his seat with a 10.3% swing.
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:32 pm
ru
There are so many interconnections. Brough is being investigated re council elections. So it is probably related to the council elections in some way
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:32 pm
[But three months after the AFP first revealed that they had a referral on the matter, no one from the Prime Minister's office has been interviewed.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national/kevin-rudd-f-bomb-probe-a-dud/story-e6frfkvr-1226397881309#ixzz1y1ubnpTN
Good news.
by rummel on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Were together at the same time at a strawberry farm?
LNP Amateur Black Ops, Sunny Coast Division.
by ruawake on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:34 pm
ru
This is beyond funny!
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:37 pm
ru
I suspect the Commonwealth is going to name these LNP identites during the court proceedings. Sounds like it will be a whose who of the LNP Sunny division. Does this mean Pyne o clean was the go between?
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:39 pm
And of course, is Roy Boy in deep do do?
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:40 pm
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
Sarah Henderson has won Liberal pre-selection for the Victorian seat of Corangamite.
View details ]·
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:41 pm
Labor running a Lynch mob on Brough, a private citizen no less. I hope he does not top him self.
by rummel on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Z☰N Digital @z3n_digital
Brough & Pyne revealed to have met Ashby at least 6 times in the immediate lead-up to his civil & criminal claims against Slipper #AusPol
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:45 pm
Politically he probably already has.
by BK on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Victoria … redistribution needed
____________________
Population changes ,notably in the north-east of Melbourne will almost cetainly see a new seat created in an area where all Assembly seats are Labor-held
In a whole line of seats from Craigiburn to Eltham and to the north it will be impossible for the Libs to make any gains there so the new seat seems certain to be Labor gain
It may well be that an eastern or inner-eastern seat will be abolished and so that will be a Liberal loss too
Th Coalition did poorly in country Victoria where Labor has done well since mad Kennet alienated many country voters with train service closures and other harsh policies…which Bailleau now seems to be replicating
The TAFE closures and cuts will cost the Libs some country seats I think.at least one on the outskirts of Geelong
The continued troubles of the suburban train system are now Bailleau’s worry too,,,not to mention the dislike of MYKI
In the last days of Brumby I posted here my view that he would lose ,because of the endless talkback complaints about MYKI and e-meters and trains
This was reinforced by an astonishing arrogant interview on Hinch by a Brumby Minister Batchelor who scorned the critics and defended the indefensible.
One could hear the votes trickling away as one listened
I was denounced by some here on this site but events proved me right and Brumby went down to defeat
Labor lost 4 seats on the Frankston line alone
Conversely Labo’s good record on V-Line in rural Victoria helped it in the seat around Ararat and Maryborough…and in other areas where Bracks and Brumby did well in this service with new tracks and trains of high quality
Now Big Ted has found him self in the same position,and just as dismissive of his critics
Oddly he has not much rapport with Mitchell on 3AW who was great mate of KennetTh
Bailleau has a dislike of the media which shows
After all he is a genuine Portsea aristocrat
The redistribution will causes many headaches for the Libs in Melbourne and much jockeying for safer seats
by deblonay on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:46 pm
So Brough did not only meet with Asbhy 3 times between 24th March and April 7th. Brough says Ashby approached him on 23rd March, was this by phone or text or email?
If there was contact before 23rd March was Brough just confused or is he hiding his involvement in the Qld State Election?
by ruawake on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:47 pm
ru
What a tangled web we weave, When first we practice to deceive.
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:49 pm
I have a vague recollection that when the involvement of Mr Brough in the Ashby Scandal first broke, he claimed to have discussed Mr Ashby’s initial approach with his wife.
I thought it somewhat odd at the time. I find it even odder now.
by Boerwar on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Showson
I see you are still part of the wan@er faction
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:51 pm
This is shocking, a student in England us turfed off onto a dark road from a bus at 3am because she is 20p short of a 5-pound fare and gets attacked and raped.
What shocks me is that not only that the driver refuses to help, not one of the passengers gave her the 20p even though she pleaded for 8 minutes to remain on the bus. Speaking as someone who has more than once helped out a stranded commuter with a few coins and would hope that the same would be done for one of my kids if they got stuck, if this is what Western civilisation has come to, it is pretty damned smurfed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/9318551/Law-student-raped-after-being-turfed-off-bus-because-she-was-20p-short-of-the-fare.html
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Just not in one of the seats the Fibs had hoped for.
by leone on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Puff
3am in the morning. Really?
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Nice work Abbott, its time to up the anti against Labor.
by rummel on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Nice work Abbott, its time to up the anti against Labor.
by rummel on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:53 pm
http://dragonistasblog.com/2012/06/17/truth-opinion-and-australian-journalism/
A must read
by Leroy on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Stop abusing other posters, it is abusive.
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:55 pm
Ru, as Emmo was saying in this morning Ch10 MTP. Brough initially denied any contact just as Prissie did.
by The Finnigans on Jun 17, 2012 at 4:55 pm