Seat of the week: Chisholm
Chisholm covers a band of suburbs in Melbourne’s electorally sensitive east, from Box Hill and Mont Albert in the north through Burwood and Mount Waverley in the centre to Chadstone, Oakleigh and Clayton in the south. Labor is strongest in the far south, with most of the remainder being naturally marginal and the Mont Albert area leaning Liberal. Reflecting the area’s static population, the redistribution that will take effect at the next election has added around 18,000 voters at Blackburn South, Burwood East and Forest Hill in the east (previously in Deakin), balanced only by the transfer of about 8000 voters around Glen Waverley to Bruce and 1500 in Mont Albert North to Kooyong. Antony Green calculates the changes have shaved 0.3% from the Labor margin, which is now at 5.8%.
Chisholm was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, but was then based on Camberwell and Glen Iris further to the west. It no longer contains any of its original territory, which now bolsters the Liberals in Higgins and Kooyong. Its progressive drift to the east accordingly made a Labor-leaning seat of what had traditionally been a safe one for the Liberals, its members being Wilfrid Kent Hughes until 1970, Tony Staley until 1980 and Graham Harris until 1983. The Liberal grip was loosened by successive swings in 1977, 1980 and 1983, the Labor candidate on each occasion being Helen Mayer, who succeeded on the third attempt. Early Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge recovered the seat for the Liberals in 1987, and held it precariously until he jumped ship to the more secure Casey in 1998. The current Labor member, Anna Burke, prevailed at the 1998 election with a 2.1% margin that was little changed in 2001 and 2004. She finally achieved a secure margin with a 4.7% swing in 2007, before the seat went slightly against the statewide trend with a 1.3% swing to the Liberals in 2010.
Anna Burke had been an industrial officer with the Finance Sector Union before entering parliament, and is aligned with the Right sub-faction associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. She has had two spells as Deputy Speaker since Labor came to power in 2007, the interruption coming after the 2010 election when the government partially bolstered its fragile parliamentary position by having Liberal member Peter Slipper take her place. Burke returned to the role after the government appeared to go one better in having Slipper replace Harry Jenkins as Speaker in November 2011, and her national profile received a considerable boost when allegations of sexual harassment and misuse of taxi dockets compelled Slipper to stand aside in April 2012, leaving her the semi-permanent occupant of the chair.
The Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Vietnamese-born John Nguyen, a partner at Ernst & Young who was five years old when his family fled their native country in 1979. VexNews reports that Nguyen won the preselection ballot ahead of Nicholas Tragas, Telstra executive and Boroondara councillor, and that the two were respectively backed by “the sometimes united Kroger/Costello group” and its traditional rivals associated with Premier Ted Baillieu.
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Asby did the same with his sexual harassment claim, he leaked it to the media before going to the police. Oh, and he never bothered to mention it to his actual employer, the Department of Finance.
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 5:47 pm
ru,
Depending on which strawberry farmer you are refering to, wasn’t Ashby possibly working for the other team?, I know I am drawing on a long bow but can’t help enjoying conspiracy theories.
by Augustus on Jun 17, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Leroy
The International Bark Beetle Collective endorses all exploitation of the Arctic arising from AGW. The vision statement is: ‘Waste Not, Want Not.’
The Collective is delighted to announce that the tree line is moving steadily north.
The Bark Beetle Collective has urged the North Carolina legislators not to pass legislation forbidding the trees to march north.
by Boerwar on Jun 17, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Yep in Meakin’s view getting caught is a serious error.
by ruawake on Jun 17, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Leaked? We’re talking “Niagra Falls” aren’t we?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 17, 2012 at 5:51 pm
She deserves zero sympathy. She knifed a first term PM for zero reason. The fortunes of Labor are 100% on her shoulders, she cannot Not take responsibility for it. Given that they were showing around some invented internal polling to frighten backbenchers it was thus also on her shoulders to save them from such imagined damage…well it seem gillard’s position is much much worse than the ‘manufactured’ internal polling produced back then probably showed.
You do what she did, then failure cannot be tolerated. The MSM are the same MSM Rudd faced. And it bs to say, oh it so much harder and tougher on gillard. This crap. The MSM on Rudd before and after the election looked at every word he uttered to twist it any which way.
She cannot complain that it is too hard for her, everybody to nasty for her, or her supporters. That is setting the bar for her lower than anybody else, which is what is happening here.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 17, 2012 at 5:52 pm
There was one chemical I used in my commercial strawberry growing days, since banned by international treaty because of its deleterious effect on the atmosphere (ozone layer), which, in its natural state is colourless, odourless and quite deadly. It is a biocide, so much prized by strawberry growers.
After divers farmers were found unconscious in their sheds the authorities fixed the problem by adding tear gas to the mix.
When the tears run uncontrollably from your eyes and snot gouts from your nose, you have been warned.
by Boerwar on Jun 17, 2012 at 5:52 pm
No Specific KnowledgeGate
The glaringly obvious question from the day ths story broke (shame on you MSM) was if Pyne o Clean and Abbott were claiming ‘no specific knowledge’ what knowledge did they have? Why hasn’t any journo asked this question, and pressed them to answer.
by Rossmore on Jun 17, 2012 at 5:54 pm
TP
I am quite disappointed in your post @ 1855.
Last night we urged your promotion to National Philosopher General in the hope that this would engender a more philosophical, less partisan approach to resolving the eternal equation:
‘Gillard equals Rudd Squared’.
by Boerwar on Jun 17, 2012 at 5:55 pm
Or should that be Gillard equals twice a constant (Albanese) multiplied by a Rudd squared?
*thinks – I am sure it must be ‘squared’ and not ‘the square root of’*
*retires sulkily to the mathmatical desert of my mind*
by Boerwar on Jun 17, 2012 at 5:58 pm
So, Mr Slipper squirted Mr Ashby with herbicide. The plot thickens.
by Boerwar on Jun 17, 2012 at 5:59 pm
BW,
Is that what it’s called these days “herbicide”
by Augustus on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Trivia question guesses:
The question was:
Recent attempts:
Record informal vote, but that isn’t it.
Very good guess but hasn’t happened quite enough times in total (I make it something like twelve).
Further hint: the increase in the size of the House of Reps was the thing that happened in 1984 that made the event in question somewhat less likely.
by Kevin Bonham on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:04 pm
Trivia question guesses:
All notional new seats won by incumbent??? (you did say guess)
by Gecko on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:06 pm
I am stunned that you place so much credence in a Murdoch hack to the point where you put it forward as ‘evidence’. It must be sheer coincidence that after Rudd & Co we re removed from caucus the leaks stopped.
Cooincidence of this nature is right up there with the Tooth Fairy IMO.
by muttleymcgee on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:09 pm
GG advises:
by Pegasus on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Of course she did… now put the red cordial down and move away from the shiny buttons.
by Gecko on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:09 pm
That’s an interesting one. I don’t know how often that has or hasn’t happened. But I will point out it didn’t happen in 1984, which is one of the nineteen times the mystery event occurred.
The mystery event indeed happened in all of 1975, 1977, 1983 and 1984 but narrowly failed to happen in 1980.
by Kevin Bonham on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:18 pm
This is another line that is getting totally smurfing boring.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:18 pm
No Pesky reports for Can’t Do.
If the water quality is not tested it must be triffic eh Cam?
by ruawake on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:21 pm
TP
Your nastiness shows in this line. Of all the accusations levelled against her, no one can accuse the PM of complaining. She just wears it. And sometimes even jokes about it.
by lizzie on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:22 pm
Remember this tweet on Friday during the hearing
Stephen Spencer @sspencer_63 2d
Ooh… hearing VERY interesting things about who is paying #ashby legals fees. If true, this is about to go pear-shaped.]
by victoria on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:23 pm
ru
Wouldn’t the Q govt have some sort of duty of care since the Reef is protected (well, in part it is).
by lizzie on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:24 pm
ShowsOn @ 1834
Yes, the Government can go to the polls as late as November 2013. Quentin Bryce’s term ends in September, and the announcement of a successor is always made many months before, to enable succession arrangements to take place.
Gareth Evans would be an eminent appointment. I doubt if he would accept though. We shall see.
by feeney on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:25 pm
Was just watching the channel nine news here in Sydney.
Sarah Hanson-Young was on it and guess what, she was criticising Julia Gillard for not supporting gay marriage.
What a stupid idiotic imbecile she is, why criticise the PM? She is entitled to her own views, we have a democratic right to exercise our own opinions in this country
That stupid idiotic imbecile should only be criticising Tony Abbott. for restricting members of his own party from exercising their own opinions.
Hello, the Labor Party are allowed a conscious vote where the Coalition are not.
If Hanson-Young is incapable of criticism only where it is warranted, she should do everyone a favour, shut the eff up and ZIP…
Sheez the Greens make my skin crawl!
by Centre on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Yeah I doubt Evans would want such a job while he is only in his late 60s. Maybe in another 10 years he would like it.
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:29 pm
That includes the “democratic” right to criticise the opinions of others.
by Kevin Bonham on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:32 pm
That is something I cannot understand. The PM gets it from SHY over her personal views on gay marriage even though ALP MPs can vote how they like on the matter, but Tony Abbott gets of scot-free for imposing a single view of GM on all the opposition MPs.
I just don’t get SHY sometimes.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:32 pm
Trivia question guesses:
The winner was shorter than the challenger??? In 1980 Frazer was taller than Hayden.
by Gecko on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:34 pm
Scorpio and Significant Other are coming to Canberra next week. Anyone for a Canberra + Scorpios PB get-together? If you are interested ask William for my e-mail address and let me know. I thought the George Harcourt Inn might be a decent venue. Happy for other suggestions.
by This little black duck on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:34 pm
I guess Senator Hansen-Young thinks attacking the Govt will achieve an outcome. Buggered if I know what.
by ruawake on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:35 pm
LOL apparently the idiotic twisted and warped Greens only want to put gay marriage to a vote in the house when they are confident of getting the numbers.
How can they get the numbers if Abbott won’t allow the Coalition a conscious vote?
Yet they blame Julia Gillard!
Stuped idiotic useless loud mouthed minority group (the Greens) that’s all they are, no more!
by Centre on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:35 pm
Thomas Paine @ 1855
I was referring more to all the crap about how she looks, how she dresses, how she talks, her earlobes, her funny voice, her big backside – all matters that would rate zero coverage if it was a male PM – Rudd or Abbott et al.
If you had been following my posts over many months, I am for leadership change, and feel Rudd is the only practical alternative. I was, and still am, disgusted with the way Rudd was disposed of.
But, despite all the nastiness and lies said and written about Rudd, it is not an excuse to return serve with petty vitriol. It serves no purpose. Labor MPs, I’m sure, will make the right decision. Just when, though, is a matter of opinion. It might be too late.
by feeney on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:35 pm
Kevin Bonham
Indeed!
by MTBW on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:38 pm
lizzie, you meanz like this?
by The Finnigans on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:39 pm
Kevin Bonham, you have got to be kidding?
It’s the loony Greens and some gays that get their nickers in a knot where people put forward reasonable explanations to their views.
by Centre on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:40 pm
WRONG! Gillard and Abbott both have identical idiotic views regarding same-sex marriage. They are both morons on this issue.
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Senator Coral Hanson-Young believes attacking Labor will win support from Labor to the Greens …
In the end they’re a political party and they prioritise increasing their vote over keeping a madman like Abbott out of the Lodge
by spur212 on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Centre
You must be very upset about Labor accepting their support to form government then/
by MTBW on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Centre, methinks you’ll get the cut & paste treatment from Horsey soon
by The Finnigans on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:41 pm
I don’t think it will be too late if it happens any time this year. It will be too late if they try it next year.
Gillard isn’t dumb, she knows that the next 5 months will make or break her PMship.
if she can’t make Labor competitive in the polls, i.e. within the margin of error, then she is gone.
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:41 pm
Someone mentioned upping the “anti” against Labor a little while back.
Did we mean “ante” by any chance?
Then again, for the Liberals to lift the “anti” against Labor even more, if that is possible, may have been the choice of words the author was looking for!
Then again, is there any more “anti” to be found? Abbott would surely know as he is full of it.
by Tricot on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:42 pm
deblonay 1801
Ta for your post. I had wondered if Cheeseman from Corangamite was lazy. He bitches he’ll lose his seat because of Gillard yet he has the only Murdoch paper that is pro-labour and backs the ALP regarding assistance to the car manufacturing industry. Cheeseman had it almost handed to him on a platter but he won’t do the tiniest bit of leg work to shore up the vote. Disappointment indeed.
by David McRae on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:42 pm
This suggests that Labor should not have chosen “Living Green” because they are then too close to the Greens.
Woman arguing that they don’t want to live green, they want to live cheap.
People are so st…pid
:sigh:
by lizzie on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Of course, if Rudd were to return, he has room to manuever on the gay marriage and asylum seeker issues which would effectively neuter the Greens political party …
But let’s not address solutions for dealing with Sarah Coral Hanson-Young’s comments today
by spur212 on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:43 pm
I love a SHY green stab at Labor and Gillard.
by rummel on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:44 pm
Finns
Yes, I saw that when it was revived earlier.
Totally illogical stance, I feel.
by lizzie on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:44 pm
I don’t agree with most of what’s in the Vex article, as the economics of the clean energy future are ignored for the simplicity of assuaging today’s whingers.
But it does hit on the Carbon Capture Institute story of Lenore Taylor, which quite rightly, puts the boot into another of Rudd’s expensive brainfarts.
Lest we forget
http://www.vexnews.com/2012/06/what-are-they-thinking-this-labor-government-has-done-some-good-but-living-green-is-killing-them/
by sprocket_ on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:45 pm
6 posts it took after mine before I had to read more repeats of Ruddstoration fantasy.
Go and do something more productive like winning lotto 52 monday night draws in a row, your chances are greater.
Better still, go make an urgent appoitment with a quack!
by Centre on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:46 pm
It’s not that difficult. The Greens will find it far easier to shear votes off the ALP than the LNP. So it’s a better strategy for them to target the ALP for criticism. Doesn’t matter if it makes sense or not. This is just an example of SHY seeing an opportunity and running with it.
The Greens play politics as hard as anyone. And ideals are more important to them than outcomes. I’ve never seen them as practical or realistic, which is the main reason I got away from them.
by Aguirre on Jun 17, 2012 at 6:47 pm