Seat of the week: Chisholm
Chisholm covers a band of suburbs in Melbourne’s electorally sensitive east, from Box Hill and Mont Albert in the north through Burwood and Mount Waverley in the centre to Chadstone, Oakleigh and Clayton in the south. Labor is strongest in the far south, with most of the remainder being naturally marginal and the Mont Albert area leaning Liberal. Reflecting the area’s static population, the redistribution that will take effect at the next election has added around 18,000 voters at Blackburn South, Burwood East and Forest Hill in the east (previously in Deakin), balanced only by the transfer of about 8000 voters around Glen Waverley to Bruce and 1500 in Mont Albert North to Kooyong. Antony Green calculates the changes have shaved 0.3% from the Labor margin, which is now at 5.8%.
Chisholm was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, but was then based on Camberwell and Glen Iris further to the west. It no longer contains any of its original territory, which now bolsters the Liberals in Higgins and Kooyong. Its progressive drift to the east accordingly made a Labor-leaning seat of what had traditionally been a safe one for the Liberals, its members being Wilfrid Kent Hughes until 1970, Tony Staley until 1980 and Graham Harris until 1983. The Liberal grip was loosened by successive swings in 1977, 1980 and 1983, the Labor candidate on each occasion being Helen Mayer, who succeeded on the third attempt. Early Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge recovered the seat for the Liberals in 1987, and held it precariously until he jumped ship to the more secure Casey in 1998. The current Labor member, Anna Burke, prevailed at the 1998 election with a 2.1% margin that was little changed in 2001 and 2004. She finally achieved a secure margin with a 4.7% swing in 2007, before the seat went slightly against the statewide trend with a 1.3% swing to the Liberals in 2010.
Anna Burke had been an industrial officer with the Finance Sector Union before entering parliament, and is aligned with the Right sub-faction associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. She has had two spells as Deputy Speaker since Labor came to power in 2007, the interruption coming after the 2010 election when the government partially bolstered its fragile parliamentary position by having Liberal member Peter Slipper take her place. Burke returned to the role after the government appeared to go one better in having Slipper replace Harry Jenkins as Speaker in November 2011, and her national profile received a considerable boost when allegations of sexual harassment and misuse of taxi dockets compelled Slipper to stand aside in April 2012, leaving her the semi-permanent occupant of the chair.
The Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Vietnamese-born John Nguyen, a partner at Ernst & Young who was five years old when his family fled their native country in 1979. VexNews reports that Nguyen won the preselection ballot ahead of Nicholas Tragas, Telstra executive and Boroondara councillor, and that the two were respectively backed by “the sometimes united Kroger/Costello group” and its traditional rivals associated with Premier Ted Baillieu.
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Is is wise for Roxon & Albo to be commenting about a court proceeding while it’s still in progress?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:38 pm
Too right.
by briefly on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Almost unanimous does not mean unanimous
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Almost unanimous does not mean unanimous, therefore it is wrong to say that “the cabinet” is opposed to Rudd. Plus, when Rudd becomes leader again, he will just pick a new cabinet which will support him. Problem solvered.
by ShowsOn on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:40 pm
If they don’t infer guilt why not?
by ruawake on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Well, it’s my firm conviction too that Labor’s got more chance of winning if Rudd returns to the leadership, but Julia’s obviously still got the numbers, at least for now.
If she leads Labor to the next election against Abbott, I’ll vote for her.
On the other hand, if Turnball somehow got back the Liberal leadership reins and turned them into a moderate political party, and he was up against Gillard, I’d be sorely tempted to vote Liberal.
My dislike of Tony Abbott trumps my dislike of Julia Gillard.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:41 pm
In light of this care for others, it seems astonishing to learn that, due to the regulations at the time, she receives no parliamentary pension, not even as a former premier. ”Just the super money I paid in myself,” she says. ”By 1994, I was exhausted and my back troubles had started. I made the mistake of leaving after 12 years when the minimum then was 14.
”Stupidly, I thought they would make allowances, as they had
I thought they would make allowances, as they had for others. To my utter dismay, they didn’t. So I went back to how I was before Parliament – my husband supported me.”
by my say on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:41 pm
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/kirner-fights-on-despite-health-woes-20120610-204bi.html
More of the above
by my say on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Look at the smurfing polls
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Look at the smurfing polls. Abbott has got the Coalition vote into the mid 50s and it has stayed there for over a year. People have decided that their dislike for Gillard is far greater than their fear of Abbott and thus say they will vote coalition when asked.
by ShowsOn on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Everyone does it TLM. It is the new black.
by shellbell on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Briefly: Rudd’s still an asset for Labor, even on the backbench. Even his detractors would concede that he’s a good campaigner, who could be used in marginal seats at the next election. And he’s said publicly that he’s contesting Griffith next time – he ain’t going away.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:43 pm
You are really loopy tunes’
what are you taking?
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by Joe6pack on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Mine as welll and may be a telling factor
by Joe6pack on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:45 pm
I was simply making the point that even though you have nothing to say, you insist on repeating yourself – in effect, doubling the emptiness, if that is possible
But I agree with you for once. I should be banned (for copying you).
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by briefly on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:46 pm
I will agree with the Gillard faction on this: Mal Brough’s resurrected political career is shot to bits, and Pyne is in the shits too.
If Abbott had full knowledge of any alleged framing of Slipper – bye bye Tone.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:46 pm
Briefly 651
Remember it is an Obsession. Can’t help themselves.
“I love the ground under his feet, and the air over his head, and everything he touches and every word he says. I love all his looks, and all his actions and him entirely and all together.”
by Rossmore on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:47 pm
Glad to see administrators have given the girl a chance at the olympics,common sense for a change.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-16/extension-gives-lacaze-ticket-to-london/4074836
by Schnappi on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:49 pm
Rossmore
Or some just hold a different opinion to yours!
by MTBW on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:51 pm
and hellooo Scott MORRISon
by Mick Collins on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:52 pm
PM Gillard told #MSMhacks “dont write crap” then Emmo’s “dont ask crap” now watch Obama angrily slammed reporter for “asking crap” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCwyCj1D1OM
by The Finnigans on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:52 pm
Is Evan starting to sense the inevitable?
by ruawake on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Yes, of course you are right. A strange thing – an attachment to the other, to that which they may not have. Followers without a leader: piteous.
by briefly on Jun 16, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Scott Morrison/Sophie Mirabella – dream Liberal leadership team.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Amusing post from a non political blog, on when the PM met a number of bloggers.
http://lifeandothercrises.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/pm-seeks-sackvilles-advice-on-anxiety.html
by Leroy on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Yes, a massive electoral loss that sets up the Liberal party to redirect the country in the direction of its choosing.
What direction remains to be discussed, unfortunately, but whatever it is, thats where we will be going for many, many years!
by Mod Lib on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Hello bludgers, just dropping in before dinner.
Zoomster, are you seriously thinking of having another tilt? If so, could Victorian based bludgers be of any help to you? There are few things I would rather spend my spare time on than ridding the political landscape of Ms. Mirabella.
Fran Barlow, interesting post back there on those who manipulate for control and criminality.
by Harry “Snapper” Organs on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Careful, Mod Lib. Do you really want guided democracy?
by Harry “Snapper” Organs on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:05 pm
Bob carr such a caring fm
by my say on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:07 pm
HSO
Did you receive the email I sent? No reply received.
by bemused on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:08 pm
The Liberal Party will not win the next election irrespective of who it chooses to lead it.
by ruawake on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:08 pm
The abc, start with siddions
by my say on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Has Fran Barlow ever done a days work in its life?
Want to have a discussion with a real worker not a academic commie
by Joe6pack on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Good news on LaCaze making the oly team. Obviously being a smokin hottie had nothing to do with it.
by Dario on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:13 pm
I suspect the Liberal Party will win the next election on its own, without needing the Nats.
by Mod Lib on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:13 pm
The Liberals have got a far better chance of winning if they replace Abbott with someone vaguely competent – Turnball.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Headings go at the top of posts
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Headings go at the top of posts, not at the bottom.
by ShowsOn on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Still talking about Rudd?
I’m out again, bye.
by zoidlord on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Mod Lib: I think they’ll need the Nats, even if it’s a landslide victory to the Coalition.
I certainly am sure that Oakeshott & Windsor are gone, perhaps Wilkie & Bandt too(if the Liberals preference against those two).
It’s still my conviction that Rudd gives Labor a better shot than Gillard, but I’m in the minority here on that one LOL
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Its not a question of a better chance, its a question of the size of the majority and the number of terms we get.
by Mod Lib on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:17 pm
DTT
What complete rubbish! What cabinet hostility? Cabinet is solidly behind Gillard and will remain so. Rudd was comprehensively rejected by 2 out of 3 of his colleagues. Haven’t you got that yet?
How many times do you have to be told that Gillard will lead the ALP to the next election? By anyone who is anyone in Labor.
With nearly a year to go until the election the polls are nearly meaningless in the face of a rancid MSM and pontificating bullsh!t like this.
Do you not anticipate a media cleanout afer the Leveson Report?
Particularly after the Slipper/Thomson episodes?
All you have is IF, IF, IF. IF Rudd hadn’t been told to pissoff by 2 out of 3 of his caucus colleagues he would probably have been fired as FM by now because he put the Chinese severely offside.
IF you had any intelligence at all you wouldn’t persist with this boring nonsense.
by muttleymcgee on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Sorry, bemused. I’m very slack in checking the emails sent to home. Have enough trouble trying to keep up at work. I’ll go have a look now.
by Harry “Snapper” Organs on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:18 pm
ModLib, no LOTO as unpopular as Abbott has led his party to victory. You know that so keep trying to panic PB and then the caucus to go back to Rudd, the instability allowing Abbott to set a precedent. Must be panicking as you see the number and vehemence of Rudd supporters drop.
Yes, you really ARE going to lose in 2013. Maybe this WA guy maybe the solution? I reckon you should be hounding Lib blogs boosting Porter for LOTO!
by political animal on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:19 pm
Mod Lib: Abbott’s negative ratings are keeping the Coalition 2PP vote below where it should be now, up against an unpopular Federal Labor Government.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:19 pm
Mod Lib@687
Has been saved for future gloating purposes.
by ruawake on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:20 pm
I would be very interested in the LOTO figures for winning and losing LOTO if you have them on hand.
Has any incumbent PM won with Gillard’s current popularity ratings?
by Mod Lib on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:21 pm
Keating in 1993?
Howard in 2001?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:22 pm
HSO @ 689
Well that is a relief!
I thought maybe my reputation in your organisation preceded me and I scared you off.
by bemused on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:23 pm
TLM has answered.
ModLib, you really need need Porter for LOTO! Turnbull Schmurmbull, not gonna get a go but Porter is ultra dry, just the sort of nong your mob likes for Leader.
by political animal on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Nobody know what the PM or LOTO beauty contest standings will be until the election is called.
The Liberal Party will lose because they will go to an election saying we are going to do xyz – the electorate will say why?
by ruawake on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Woops, too many needy needs!
by political animal on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Isn’t that what you guys told yourselves before NSW and Qld?
Hell, you were all pretty tally ho about Victoria and look what happened there. The ALP brand is toxic out there, and while the public will put the bats down to grab the cash you are handing out, once they work out its actually their own money anyway and not from the ALP, the bats get picked up again!
by Mod Lib on Jun 16, 2012 at 7:28 pm