Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
• WA Treasurer Christian Porter’s bombshell announcement that he will seek to enter federal politics at the next election has transformed the Liberal preselection contest for the Perth hinterland seat of Pearce, where incumbent of 19 years Judi Moylan will retire at the next election. Porter entered state parliament at a February 2008 by-election and assumed the role of Attorney-General when the Barnett government came to power seven months later, winning promotion to Treasurer in December 2010. Marcus Priest of the Australian Financial Review says Porter is “often seen as part of the right of the WA Liberals”, being “an economic dry and law and order hard-liner”, but “can be socially liberal on issues such as native title”. Prior to entering politics he had been a public prosecutor, adviser to Howard government Justice Minister and WA Senator Chris Ellison and law lecturer at the University of Western Australia. The front-runner for the preselection was previously thought to have been 24-year-old trademark lawyer Alex Butterworth, who is planning to fight on. The West Australian reports the field also includes “two locals, Bill Crabtree and Rod Henderson”. Another contender, high-profile financial adviser Nick Bruining, has conceded Porter’s entry has left him with no chance and withdrawn.
• Richard Torbay, state independent member for Northern Tablelands, has all but been confirmed as the Nationals candidate to take on Tony Windsor in New England, with Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reporting the party has guaranteed him “freedom to speak with an independent voice on local issues”. Nationals internal polling reportedly found Torbay rated more highly in the electorate than both Windor and the other mooted Nationals contender for New England, Barnaby Joyce. Labor’s NSW state secretary, Sam Dastyari, has accused Torbay of offering to join the ALP in November 2009 if it agreed to make him Premier, shortly before Nathan Rees was dumped in favour of Kristina Keneally. The claim has been vigorously denied by Torbay, who was a member of the ALP during his days as mayor of Armidale in the 1990s. This is consistent with reporting at the time from the Daily Telegraph and Barrie Cassidy on Insiders, which indicated that approaches to Torbay were at Labor’s initiative rather than his own. (UPDATE: Fairfax further reports that John Della Bosca, who was involved in the talks with Torbay, has said Dastyari’s account is inconsistent with his own recollection).
• Sarah Henderson, former state 7:30 Report presenter and unsuccessful candidate in 2010, has easily won a fiercely contested struggle for Liberal preselection in Corangamite, polling an absolute majority in the first round. Her main rival was Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and former Peter Costello staffer who also sought preselection last time. Henderson’s backers were said to include Tony Abbott and Michael Kroger, while Nockles reportedly had support from Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Senators Arthur Sinodinos and Scott Ryan and Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer.
• Michael Sukkar, a 30-year-old tax laywer for the firm Ashurt, has emerged a surprise winner in the Liberal preselection for the marginal eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin. The presumed front-runner had been John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said to be closely associated with Ted Baillieu. In third place was Michelle Frazer, state government media and communications adviser. (UPDATE: VexNews relates that also-ran candidates Phillip Fusco, Terry Barnes, Andrew Munroe were eliminated in that order, at which point Sukkar and former Melbourne candidate Simon Olsen were tied for third. After winning a run-off against Olsen, Sukkar crucially managed to get his nose ahead of Frazer, who unlike Sukkar would not have succeeded in getting ahead of Pesutto in the final round due to a view among Sukkar’s backers that she “wasn’t up to it”.)
• Cate Faehrmann, who filled the vacancy in the New South Wales Legislative Council when Lee Rhiannon was elected to the Senate at the 2010 election, has won preselection to lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
well thats a good enough reason to go to bed. night all.
by middle man on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:32 pm
The flatness continues …
by spur212 on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:34 pm
For now.
by Gary on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:35 pm
And so the march backwards continues.
The New South Wales Education Department has been condemned for abolishing a unit dedicated to providing drug prevention programs and advice.
Greg Prior, the deputy director-general of schools, has confirmed the drug education unit has been disbanded, along with six positions.
Why are Right Wingers just such awful human beings?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-16/anger-as-nsw-drug-education-unit-abolished/4074448
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Cate Faehrmann being the candidate would require a second vacancy in the same MLC seat as Lee Riannon (elected 2007 and thus expires in 2015) also vacated for the Senate. Is that a record for vacancies?
by Tom the first and best on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:37 pm
From previous:
Yep. If there are more seats then there is somewhat more chance to have seats change hands in both directions. Not enough to explain the before/after difference in the rate of it happening by itself – that could be partly just luck, or could have something to do with mostly close-ish elections recently.
by Kevin Bonham on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Gokd night sad spurr
Cannot
u e er see anythi g positive in your life
It was back nly in feb when some polls had us 15/18
Behind.
Time to confess being liberal
by my say on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:37 pm
All Gillard needs to do is increase the Labor vote by the same amount every month until the next election and Labor will still be on 44% on election day.
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:41 pm
So how does it lay when preferences are diced up?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Grab hold of your spine Shows, no-one said this would be a walk in the park.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:42 pm
The apparent fast-tracking of Porter into Canberra, some are saying as a potential leader, illustrates how much faith the LNP powerbrokers have in the current lineup.
And apparently Bishop (J) and Cormann are behind this move. Surely they have faith in Tony don’t they?
Don’t they?
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Roaring economy, compensation flowing into the voters pockets and the ALP gets 44% of the TPP vote (or about 46 seats).
Ouch!
by Mod Lib on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:45 pm
oops, forgot the quotes.
And so the march backwards continues.
Why are Right Wingers just such awful human beings?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-16/anger-as-nsw-drug-education-unit-abolished/4074448
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Mod Lib
Don’t worry, you will keep.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Showson
Does it look like I give a smurf?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:47 pm
The question isn’t IF the caucus will opt for self preservation after July 1st, but WHEN
I’m going with early to mid October
by spur212 on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:48 pm
If Rudd becomes PM next Thursday he would have 2.5 months off (the entire winter recess) before parliament sits again…
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:50 pm
spur212
You can go into the same holding pen as Mod Lib. It is the one marked, Diet: Their words.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Assuming he didn’t call a snap election, or one just before the next sitting…
by Mod Lib on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Showy,
I suggest, not tell mind you, suggest you take a Bex and have a good lay down.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Vic, NSW, Qld….soon NT.
The penny will drop eventually Puff. It will come eventually…
by Mod Lib on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:53 pm
The Herald Sun’s Galaxy Poll story is up: http://bit.ly/P3VA4O
by GhostWhoVotes on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Puff
Remain in denial
by spur212 on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Oh smurf.
I hear a grinding noise.
I think it is a key being wound. Oh, it has stopped. What is that, the Dance of the Sugar Plum Fairy?
Is that an ex-PM twirling in the Rudderstoration music box?
Who opened the smurfing lid again?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Still ranting on Rudd ?
Good Bye blog until further notice.
by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Showson,
666 is not really the Mark of the Beast.
Just sayin’.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:59 pm
spur212 @ 27
The saddest thing is Puff is one of the more sane supporters of oblivion. Others are just barking mad.
by bemused on Jun 17, 2012 at 10:59 pm
This poll spells it out pretty clearly.
by spur212 on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:00 pm
The constitutional issues with same sex marriage had never occurred to me, to be honest.
Whilst certainly not professing to be a constitutional lawyer, and not having looked at what the constitution actually says, my general recollection is that the federal constitution confers on the Commonwealth the power to make laws with respect to marriage.
This of course begs the question as to what is “marriage”, at least in constitutional terms. If the Commonwealth purports to make a law with regard to an issue that is not covered by one of the heads of power conferred on it, then the power to make such laws is available only to the states.
With same-sex unions, however described, the first question is whether the power to make such laws is available tothe Commonwealth. If, in constitutional terms, “marriage” has a specific meaning based on the common law, being the union of man and woman (and without going into the rights and wrongs – I have always supported same sex marriage – I would have thought the common law position about man/woman exclusivity in marriage is a pretty strongly arguable position), then what power does the Commonwealth have?
If a same-sex union is not marriage at common law, and the Commonwealth lacks legislative power, then the default position would be that only the states could make such laws (having broad powers to make laws for peace, order and good government in the state – in other words, powers to make laws in respect of matters that have not vested exclusively in the Commonwealth.)
But then there’s the rub: if in constitutional terms only the Commonwealth has power to make laws regarding marriage, and in applying the constitution the man/woman definition of marriage under common law prevails, then I’m not sure that either the Commonwealth or the states could legislate for same-sex “marriage”. Maybe the best outcome within the current constitutional framework would be the status quo ie, state laws respecting same-sex union property entitlements, Commonwealth anti-discrimination laws preventing discrimination based on sexual-preference etc. Possibly states could enact laws to provide additional legal recognition of same-sex unions?
Other than that, a federal constitutional amendment to amend the constitutional definition of marriage would be needed.
Any constitutional lawyers out the prepared to express a view?
by Outsider on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:01 pm
The wishful thinkers faction is a very broad church.
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Its not even about the monotonous consistency of the polls….don’t you guys talk to anyone?
Gillard is toxic and she is tarnishing brand ALP with her political poison.
That this is taking so long to sink in just amazes me!
by Mod Lib on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:02 pm
I guarantee you, those figures are firm and they aren’t going to be turned around. The Prime Minister has been well and truly judged
by spur212 on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Galaxy posted simular results back in April:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/04/29/galaxy-56-44-to-coalition/
The fact also the 2PP has risen from 30 to 31.
So now good bye from This blog.
Your dangerous you lot factionists.
by zoidlord on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:05 pm
ShowsOn @ 35
I object to the use of the word ‘thinkers’.
by bemused on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:06 pm
The shortest route to ending marriage discrimination is for an amendment to the marriage act. Now, there could then be potential High Court cases on the validity of the law, but my question is, who exactly would have standing to bring such a case before the court? Someone that just got married?
Another option would be for the federal parliament to repeal the Marriage Act to make ALL marriages civil unions, as is the case in France.
The third option would be to amend the constitution.
A majority of the High Court would basically rule that times have changed, the populace has moved on, having a Marriage Act that doesn’t differentiate between same-sex and opposite sex couples is fine.
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Outsider,
I want ssc to have a marriage day and a certificate. I am not sure how it could be done as I do not know enough about the Constitution or the Law. Maybe the best that can be done at the moment is civil unions in the states, as unsatisfactory as that is. At least it would solve the problem of having to prove retrospectively when a relationship started rather than proactively showing that it starts now (as of the registration of the union) and continues from that point.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Change the Marriage Act. Then challenge the High Court to strike down the democratic will of the parliament.
I doubt they would do it.
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Zoidlord @ 30
I’m with you.
Between that constant Ruddstoration fantasy and the moronic stupidity of that seriously sexually frustrated shit stirrer Shows On;
it is time to ZIP…!
by Centre on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:10 pm
My prediction for the Greek election is that Theo Smufadopolos will be the next Prime Minister.
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Scathing attack from Malcolm Fraser on Tony Abbott and Scott Morison
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/politics/abbotts-evil-policy-work-20120617-20hzs.html
by spur212 on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:12 pm
There is an invisible line down the Great Dividing Range.
A drop of water on one side of this line faces a trip down to the Pacific Ocean. Its neighbour will, instead end up in the Southern Ocean.
Australian politics is right on that line at the moment. The illusion of momentum in politics may just be reaching that invisible line.
All the momentum has been pushing the Abbott-led anti-Government forces into a seemingly natural fall into the Treasury benches. Yet it has all been dependent on the illusion of Abbott-invincibility being maintained. More at
http://archiearchive.wordpress.com/2012/06/17/is-there-a-perfect-storm-ahead-for-tony-abbotta-time-of-waiting/
by archie on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Galaxy seems to be at a lower number for the govt than Newspoll, which is strange.
Still, given Newspoll is regarded as the most respected poll then we have to go with 54-46 as the true result.
Easily in range for the Govt.
by Henry on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Good post Archie but being the pedant I am it is Albanese I believe.
But yes good read.
by Henry on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Henry @ 48
None of these polls are ‘the true result’. All are using results from a sample to make an inference about the total population. They are estimates with a margin of error.
by bemused on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Wouldn’t the opposite be the case? After all, to win more than your percentage in seats implies relatively efficient distribution of support. Large margins are wasteful.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Nice try, but that is wishful thinking.
The 4 polling companies have it at 57, 56, 56 and 54. You can take whichever one you like the best if you like, but looking at all the information is usually the better option. Particularly since the message has been crystal clear for over a year…
by Mod Lib on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy are no more or less than each other. Morgan is rubbish, Essential is untested.
IN RANGE? WTF? They have behind by this margin or more for a year. LANDSLIDE LOSS territory!
by ShowsOn on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Galaxy Poll
Is the Labor Government now better or worse than it was two years ago under Kevin Rudd?
Better 20 Worse 64
Has the Gillard Government succeeded or failed regarding an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions?
Yes 30 No 59
Has the Gillard Government succeeded or failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom?
Yes 29 No 57
Has the Gillard Government succeeded or failed in stopping the asylum seeker boats?
Yes 9 No 80
by GhostWhoVotes on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Mod Lib: Funny how Newspoll is suddenly the poll of choice for Gillard Labor.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:28 pm
40
The Commonwealth probably does not have the power to legislate fir Civil Unions (outside the Territories).
France has both Marriages (which much be at civil ceremonies but may later have religious services) and Civil Unions and these are different.
by Tom the first and best on Jun 17, 2012 at 11:29 pm