Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Perhaps the Mass Extinction Event at the end of the Cretaceous period was not a meteor? Perhaps it was the levying of …
by Ozymandias on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:08 pm
Aguirre
My control group comprises lots of talk on Europe, in particularly Greece. Internet shopping, and how it compares to traditional retail. Jobs market. Nothing on Rudd, and Abbott is a frickin idiot.
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:09 pm
The Spanish Armada was sunk because they had a carbon tax.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:09 pm
Australians will not vote for an idiot.
Anyone who thinks they would vote for an idiot is an idiot.
Anyone who would vote for an idiot is also an idiot.
Tony Abbott is an Idiot.
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:09 pm
As much as the Left are deluded, at least the Greek ones can see that leaving the Euro is the best way to go. All that the election has done is extend the death of a thousand cuts.
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:10 pm
O
It was the carbon tax. The Permian Extinction was also caused by the carbon tax.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:11 pm
@1003 – Mick – so what does that say about your opinion of Australians based on current voting intentions?
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:12 pm
The Liberals make Eric Olthwaite appear interesting.
by ruawake on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:13 pm
I thought Abbott was the casue of all evil – the PM says so.
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Spot the error.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:13 pm
CC
I tend to agree. The Greek Right have done the right thing, as usual. They won’t pay tax, and the minute things look dicky they do capital flight.
They have no loyalty to anything but their base greed. They have no commitment to the nation. They have no committment to society: parasitical blood suckers.
They are scum, IMHO, and they are destroying Greece.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:14 pm
No CC, Abbott is not the cause of all evil. He is evil.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Puff – there’s more than one error
by Leroy on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Great moments in history.
Chapter one
King Canute fails to stop a carbon tax.
King Harold defeated by the carbon tax. a carbon tax.
Martin Luther nails a petition to Axe the Tax to the Wittenberg church door.
Mary Queen of Scots beheaded for supporting a carbon tax.
The Great Fire of London caused by the carbon tax.
by leone on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:15 pm
No need to panic. Humans consist mainly of water and carbon.
So, the minute Mr Abbott spots some carbon he goes to water.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:15 pm
I think it relects my impression of the pollsters rather than of Australians.
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:15 pm
CC
The Libs are doing a fabulous job. There is no need for them to change a thing. Not a thing.
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Just come back after a computer crash and I lerve the ironic posts. Keep up the humour, guys. It’s that sort of day. QT was deadly dull IMO.
victoria and aguirre
Reporting on other “reference sites” is good – gives us all a broader perspective.
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:16 pm
I understand that King Harold was hit in the eye by a carbon tax. This is why England was ruled by William the Carbon Taxer.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:17 pm
More on ME bills and HoR committee inquiry report:
1. http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/mps-to-delay-gay-marriage-vote-20120618-20j5d.html
2. Summary of responses to online survey conducted by HoR Inquiry: http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=spla/bill%20marriage/survey.htm
Sixty-four per cent of respondents supported Greens Adam Bandt’s bill (Marriage Equality Amendment Bill 2012); 60.5 per cent supported ALP Jones bill (Marriage Amendment Bill 2012).
3. Australian Marriage Equality website where you can find out where your MP stands on ME: Opposed, Supporter or Undecided / undeclared:
http://www.australianmarriageequality.com/whereyourmpstands/
by Pegasus on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Idiocy is infectious, witness the COALition during QT
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:18 pm
@1010 – failure to pay tax appears to afflict all sides of politics in both Greece and Italy.
As for capital flight – what is your idea – just leave your capital for it to be destroyed. Greece leans so far left the right over there are about the same as the Chicoms.
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:18 pm
“ETS, Brute?”
by zoomster on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:18 pm
About that $1.25 with Sportsbet that Gillard will still be PM on June 29.
After I had confirmed with them that they meant THIS year not next year, I asked them if I could have $1000 on it – $250 profit looked very attractive to me. They said the $1.25 had been knocked off (I’m not surprised) and offered me $500 at $1.20.
Oh well, I can’t complain. It will be the easiest hundred bucks I have ever made.
Do any of the Liberal loud mouths here want offer me a similar deal?
by Darn on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:19 pm
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Boerwar
I think Thomson voting with them has scared them into their shells
cowards they are
by Meguire Bob on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Carbon Tax is responsible for keeping the Tigers out of the finals for 28 of the past 30 years.
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:21 pm
@1015 – you are delusional if you think Pollsters do anything other than report the results from as accurate samples as possible. Even Essential, which is clearly a self-selecting ALP/Unions bias, trys to give accurate results. It is not in their commercial interest to provide biased results otherwise the value of their product diminishes – the value of a polling company is in its’ predictive ability – not its’ spin. (Climate Change scientists could learn from that).
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:21 pm
MB
I reckon them nasty little strawberries are scaring the coaliton
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:21 pm
by deflationite on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:22 pm
MIck Collins
I reckon Carlton’s poor form can be traced back to the carbon tax!
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Carbon Tax Hardy.
by ruawake on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:23 pm
rummel @ 741
It really is!
by CTar1 on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:24 pm
@1016 – fully agreed (maybe a few things could be different but I am more right wing than most and understand the need for compromise in politics and we can’t produce a Turnbull/Abbott combination personality so Abbott is it).
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Only if they are caught out you twerp
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:25 pm
What have you got against shovels?
by Aguirre on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:25 pm
If same sex marriages are legalised it will be because of the carbon tax.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:25 pm
C@tmomma 880 , a FAKE Lord against a Prince ? Charles would win hands down .
by Lord Barry Bonkton on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:25 pm
No Cold Beer – bloody carbon tax.
by ruawake on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Hitler invaded Poland because they had a carbon tax.
by Lynchpin on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Compact Crank
Wise. Keep Abbott precisely were he is. Suits me perfectly!
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:26 pm
You’re delusional when you put everything in the polls when the real anecdotal evidence (ie from the pub, collegues,circle of freinds etc) is that Tony Abbott is an Idiot.
But then you would vote for him.
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:26 pm
victoria @ 1028
you could be right
by Meguire Bob on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:26 pm
“Classic” Zoomster!
by Ozymandias on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:26 pm
@1023 – I think you’ve made yourself a nice little earner there.
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:26 pm
#fakesophie#
I’ll give Mr Burke a pair if he goes to Rio with me…
Tough titty BK…
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:27 pm
The Dodo bird is extinct because of the carbon tax.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Great moments in History
Chapter Two – the Age of Enlightenment.
British explorer James Bruce discovers the source of the carbon tax
The Boston Stop the Tax Party begins the Carbon Tax Revolution.
Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette executed by the carbon tax.
Marat is drowned in his bath by the carbon tax.
Madame Defarge knits the carbon tax a scarf while watching the beheading of aristocrats
Mozart’s opera ‘The Carbon Tax’ flops in Vienna – too many notes, says the emperor.
by leone on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:27 pm
If Julia Gillard is re-elected it will be as a result of the carbon tax.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Tony Abbott is going bald because of the carbon tax.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:28 pm