Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Nostradamus predicted that a carbon tax and the end of the world would occur on the same day.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:48 pm
CC
Before Abbott becomes PM and tries a DD, there will be plenty of popcorn, Jaffas and fantails to be eaten. Oops not forgetting strawberries!!
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Thousands of female rangas were burnt at the stake during the Salem Carbon Tax Hunt.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:49 pm
The scots nation is a complete uproar because the carbon tax is going to block the bagpipe outlets.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:50 pm
If the journos want to survive & prosper in market driven user pay business model, not subsidised by Ads. they have to STOP WRITING CRAP
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:50 pm
Whyalla Watch
http://www.whyalla.com/page.aspx?u=71
Still there.
by deflationite on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:51 pm
@1094 – are you claiming a Mandate for Gillardon something? What? – the CO@ Tax they wouldn’t have.
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:51 pm
@1101 – still waiting for your big revelation – underwhelmed so far.
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:52 pm
I thought it was law that board members of media companies signed a no editorial interference declaration. This was the reason why Rinehart had not been offered a board position, because she will not sign.
by ruawake on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Is SportsBet running a book on this apocalyptic event?
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Did some drive way paving strips over the weekend and was 5 pavers short ! I blame the Carbon Tax.
by Lord Barry Bonkton on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Boat people sail to Australia to avoid a carbon tax in their homeland.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:54 pm
Ive ne er seen whyalla
Thanks for that,
Send it toabbott on the first of july
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:54 pm
CC
Perhaps you should ask Abbott and his friends if they are underwhelmed
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:55 pm
When I woke up this morning, i had a pimple on my bum.
We all know what caused that don’t we.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Shows ON@972,
Let me spell it out for you, Shows: I.R.O.N.Y.
by C@tmomma on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:56 pm
DG
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Lemmings race over cliffs to avoid the carbon tax.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:57 pm
On a sobering note
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:58 pm
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:59 pm
I voted in the SMH poll “which (size paper) do you prefer” – broadsheet, tabloid, berliner, don’t mind.
I voted “berliner” but must admit I don’t know what size paper that is. Do they have berliner size newspapers in Berlin?
by citizen on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:59 pm
Herald Sun
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:59 pm
lizzie
Snap!!
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 5:59 pm
Adam Bandt, try living in Adelaide. We get the choice between Murdoch’s The Advertiser and Murdoch’s The Advertiser.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Adam Bandt is right on the money!
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Try living in Brisbane.
by ruawake on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Have any Coalition members been buying up tracts of land inland?
Think Lex Luthor making a killing on beachfront property.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:01 pm
@1113 – I would think Abbott and friends are very relaxed and comfortable – the AG and Albo are the ones who look uncomfortable – trashing all conventions relating to commenting on trials while they are sub judice – talk about the actions of panicked people.
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:01 pm
A berliner.
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/cookandchef/txt/s2653401.htm
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:01 pm
CC
Chin up. Abbott may survive. Not so sure about a few others.
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:02 pm
Puff
At least in the West we get the choice between The West Australian(Stokes) and The West Australian (Stokes) Monday to Saturday.
Murdoch only shows up on Sundays (Sunday Times).
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:02 pm
citizen
Wikipedia is your friend.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berliner_%28format%29
I thought a Berliner was a jam doughnut.
by leone on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:03 pm
@1119 – given Bandt’s views reflect, what, 10% of the Australian population I guess he can go jam it – or buy or start his own luvvie collective knitting circle.
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Months ago I was talking to a lady who was extolling the virtues of installing solar…government subsidised.
Her quarterly bills have gone from being relatively high to being in credit, albeit small.
She was whinging this week that her family only received $70 in compensation for the incoming price on carbon.
What the!
by Dee on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Will the opposition be busing the residents out of Whyalla ? before the Carbon Tax wipes them off the earth ?
by Lord Barry Bonkton on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Get Up campaign against Gina:
http://www.getup.org.au/fourth-estate?t=dXNlcmlkPTc2OTYzNCxlbWFpbGlkPTgzMw==
by MTBW on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:04 pm
JFK famously said “I’m a doughnut” (to the Germans, in German).
by This little black duck on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:05 pm
@1130 – you can also buy The Australian or is that beyond your intellectual ability?
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Unfortunately all sheets of carbon paper will be 10 per cent smaller from 1 July due to the carbon tax.
by citizen on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Cate Fearhrman and Julian Morrow panelists with host Crabbe on the Drum tonight.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:05 pm
I wondered why Abbott and Pyne did not quiz Albo and Rocks On about these matters in QT today. Bwaahhaha
by ruawake on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:06 pm
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/trouble-in-jacksonville/
by Leroy on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:06 pm
@1135 – heh – nice to see the kiddies occupied.
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:07 pm
ich bin ein berliner
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7CtI8nx1Wc
by deflationite on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:07 pm
I’m hoping the carbon tax was the reason Brandis carbon tax jokes stopped on this page.
I could be wrong, but I think it’s getting just a teeny weeny bit overdone.
by Swing Required on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:07 pm
Puffy
And we still are the second most pro-Labor state after Victoria; possibly even more than Vic given we still have a Labor state govt (although Bolt and others argue that Vic still has a Labor govt).
by Diogenes on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:08 pm
Is Joe Hildebrand showing how smart he is. A show on the ABC before sackings happen at News.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:08 pm
The Opposition party are worried about how many members tainted votes they will lose after Slippergate steam roller rolls into town.
by Lord Barry Bonkton on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:08 pm
@1140 – never interrupt your enemy while the are making a mistake – correct tactics to let Albo and Fringe do as they wish.
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:09 pm
The carbon tax jokes are overdone because of the carbon tax.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:09 pm