Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was mistranslated when he was quoted as saying Israel should be “wiped off the map” he actually said ‘The carbon tax will wipe Israel and Whyalla off the map.”
by poroti on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:09 pm
O my god its amazing whatd ones eyes pick up wheen scrolling
I saw the howard words relaxed and comfortable
What year is o i know its 2012! And they are still quoting their
leader in retirement
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Compost Crank
Why should I buy The Arsetralian when Murdoch gives it away in order to “boost circulation”.
Come to think of it, so does Stokes.
The only papers (physical) I buy are copies of the Fin Review at the end of the financial year, and another at the end of the calendar year. Been doing that since 1999.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Bolt’s Leveson article has to join his Top Ten, which include:
Rudd should resign for having the temerity to ask about Japan’s nuclear reactor.
This Muslim terrorist killer in Sweden……
Gillard will resign by Monday..
etc, etc…
by Swing Required on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:10 pm
The carbon tax made you say that.
by deflationite on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Now, now, Puff. It’s not quite that bad.
We actually have a choice between the Murdoch-owned Advertiser, the Murdoch-owned Sunday Mail or the Murdoch-owned Messenger local press.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Oh, tres amusement, Compact Crank has started coming up with knitting-themed slights against us ‘Leftys’.
by C@tmomma on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:11 pm
We need a carbontaxonomy.
by This little black duck on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:11 pm
Dear adam here we have no choice
Only newltd
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:12 pm
Adelaide deserves that sort of treatment anyway.
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:12 pm
Not as much as an Abbottectomy!
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:12 pm
I think riley just made fun of liberals re carbon tax
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:13 pm
I do wonder how many friends KJacskon has now. Will the ABC be welcoming her back with open arms?
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:14 pm
BK
Good one!
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:14 pm
A cartoonist could have real fun with Gina occupying two seats on the Fairfax board.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:15 pm
Julian morow on the money. Comparing journalists to toll collectors.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:16 pm
Leroy
I am starting to form the view that an Inquiry into the fwa report on HSU is in order.
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:17 pm
c
We retaliate by being a Labor state.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Has the producers of The Drum decided to eliminate a panellist who may in any way be sympathetic to the Gillard government?
Tonight with Annabel Crabb(a not particularly sympathetic to the Gillard government journo, preferring instead arseclownery), we have:
Ross Cameron- ex Liberal MP(definitely not sympathetic to the Gillard government, A1 political Sideshow arskclown)
Cate Faehrmann- Greens MP(definitely not sympathetic to the Gillard government from the Left perspective)
Julian Morrow-professional political Sideshow arskclown and so not sympathetic to any government by profession.
The ABC’s idea of a balanced panel?
by C@tmomma on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:19 pm
@1094
I don’t recall any Mandate for Gillard on anything. You’re making shit up.
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:20 pm
GetUp campaigning for Quality Journalism and plurality.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:20 pm
CC
The only shit will be all over Abbott and his band of not so merry men and women
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Latest from Jacksonville, with link to a summary of Jeff Jackson’s credit card bills. Guess who has been visiting brothels on HSU money?
http://wixxy.wordpress.com/2012/06/18/a-hard-rains-gonna-fall/
by leone on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:21 pm
This little black duck
Carter had a translation disaster in Poland 1977 .The translator interpreted Carters “I have come to learn your opinions and understand your desires for the future,” as ” ‘I desire the Poles carnally’ “. I believe the reported “carnally” is the polite version.Those listenening were apparently more than a little “confused”
by poroti on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:21 pm
The Australian is considered a joke in Melbourne, most people would turn to the Age as the paper of note.
Only an idiot would suggest otherwise, the sort of type that would vote for Abbott.
Who we all know is an idiot
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:22 pm
CC
For doing despicable things like not granting pairs, Abbott will get no quarter.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:22 pm
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:23 pm
@1168 – one rightwinger to three lefties – ABC balance at its’ best.
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:23 pm
BK !!
A particularly brave Fairfax one perhaps?
by Laocoon on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:24 pm
From Bloomberg news:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-17/australia-says-resources-investment-hits-records-on-asian-demand.html
by citizen on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:24 pm
BK
Or at least find someone to reprogram the Nobot.
by poroti on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:24 pm
leone
Not a surprise to us that it is JJackson. As I said earlier, an inquiry into the FWA report is in order
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:24 pm
I wonder if Jeff Jackson used other peoples money, or credit cards to have a paid bonk or ten?
Why did FWA miss it is more to the point.
by ruawake on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:25 pm
g in a study according to Hachet and Barnes (2003), they found about 1.3 Million people in the US are able to knit.
Now thats just isn the US BIG KNITTING GROUP
For your information c c the word circle as regards knitting , was never the case
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:25 pm
Even the giant magnificent BISONs have to ROAR that this is a HUGEEEEEEE MOAR on #Jacksonville – http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/trouble-in-jacksonville/
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:25 pm
Well done to the small but majority of people in Greece.
Congrats to Antonio Samaras (I think it is) on the conservative side over there, there home.
To all those who wanted Greece to exit the Euro, to all those who wanted the election of a socialist government
Finish buying back into the market tomorrow
As for tonight, go the Eagles, got to get most of my Dragon losses back
by Centre on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:26 pm
@1175 – since when is pairing a Mandate from an election?????
Despicable??? – making Parliamentarians attend Parliament?
What next?? – expect workers to work??
by Compact Crank on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:26 pm
ruawake
It seems that the Fwa report missed a fair bit
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Ashby now subject on Drum
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:27 pm
vic
looks as though this was what the msm weren’t interested in….. quite amazing – thomson is looking more lily white by the minute!
by Lyne Lady on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:27 pm
CC
How dare parlimentarians think they can go around cooking up political conspiracies at Strawberry farms
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Like, W*O*W! Not to be missed!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:28 pm
I liked this
by leone on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:28 pm
guytaur
Can you fill us in? Thanks in advance
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Look peoples
If you do not like the new Fairfax direction DO NOT BUY the bloody thing.
I do not buy ANY newspapers – occasionally read one in a coffee shop.
Web based journals (like Crikey are the future). On balance the demise of SMH and the Age may be good. Removes the pretense of independence.
by daretotread on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:28 pm
My daughter just sent this.
http://mobile.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/australians-in-world-first-heart-surgery/story-e6frfku9-1226398885126
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:29 pm
cc
That was a really pathetic comeback. Try harder.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:30 pm
It’s called convention.
Of course as a minister of the crown you would expect him to attend conferences relating to to his portfolio. In other words thats part of his Job Description.
Only an Idiot like Tony Abbott, or one of his supporters, would try to deny that.
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:30 pm
April 27th, 2011
From: http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2011/04/27/3201383.htm
23rd August, 2011
From: http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2011/08/23/3300081.htm
by deflationite on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:30 pm
Ross Cameron on the Drum. He is the epitome of pious hypocrisy.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 6:31 pm