Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Sounds a silly point but if reports that newpapers will be gone in about 5 years, where will we source news?. Now, we can say off internet, but when you look at it even here on PB much of the news comes from newspaper links( BK in the morning for eg).Now that AFR is paywalled there is no way that I read AFR articles as much as before. Will the same occur with others?.Will morning TV shows and talkback radio be the ones who set the news stories for the day? Will there be an opening for alternative forms on internet. I don’t know how much it costs to set up a site such as this one but really except for journalists wages something like PB as an information source not just a blog could be quite cheap to run with minimal advertising revenue required. Back in 2010 during election campaign there were some who seemed to be seriously considering such a plan (was JJ one ? and if I’m mistaken apologies). I’m not offerring answers to these questions because I don’t have any. Will be interesting to see how things play out. Maybe there will be a chance for alternative “press” in the future it just depends whether the other mediums like TV and Radio pick up the stories that could be run on alternative internet sites.
by RNM1953 on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Mod Lib
The journos were engaged in their usual groupthink. Of course, Murdoch was all for it. So they all pushed it approvingly
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Where was labor?
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:23 pm
Crean was LOTO and he opposed (while deftly trying not to appear anti-defence forces, pretty successfully).
by Mod Lib on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:24 pm
rummel
Labor was against the invasion
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:25 pm
What are you using now?
by ShowsOn on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:25 pm
Refer Simon Crean’s speech to departing forces.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:27 pm
victoria
I think it died in the lead up to Iraq. All the claims laid out to justify the WMD shite, Niger yellowcake,aluminium tubing,mobile germ warfare labs etc was shown ,sometimes literally within hours to be utter bullshit. Yet none of the msm reported such lies with outrage. Outrage that was well deserved. Most expecially as even after the claims were shown to be crud Tony Blah and co continued to make them.
by poroti on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:28 pm
I’m still not sure who is right in that debate yet.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:29 pm
poroti
That is what I meant. The case for war was never challenged by our msm. It was disgraceful and stomach churning
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Well he did a good job as I could really not for the life of me remember.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:31 pm
I opined earlier that a revamped and reformed ABC should be able to do the job of basic news data gathering. That is its job, after all.
But another alternative is that we stop whingeing about how the MSM should do more work, and start doing it ourselves.
Anyone who thinks that is pie in the sky should look not only to the future Iand who knows what the future holds,really?), but to the present, for example citizen journos like Wixxie. It CAN be done.
We can’t sit around crying that Phil Coorey just prints leaks from Labor insiders without asking what would we do in his place?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:32 pm
poroti – great guitar. OH says thanks. It’s got him interested in browsing to find more.
by BH on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Rhinehart now wants 3 seats
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/fairfax-set-to-offer-board-seat-to-gina-rinehart/story-e6frg996-1226398955759
by Schnappi on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:35 pm
An urban myth. I discussed this with some friends from Austria recently. They knew all about JFK having said “ich bin ein Berliner”, but the story about him having misspoke was news to them.
by William Bowe on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Much as I have a profound distaste for everything related to Ross Cameron I must confess that I agreed with him on one thing he said on The Drum tonight. i.e. Tony Burke doesn’t give a stuff about the livelyhoods of the professional fishermen of Toowoomba.
by leon on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:36 pm
by Schnappi on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:37 pm
leon
Toowoomba?????
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:37 pm
She’ll just about fit then.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Trot – Those poor fisherman.
by CTar1 on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:38 pm
BK
Norty!
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:38 pm
I’m pretty sure Burke is fully intending to avoid ever making a tough decision on anything. He has to be the most spineless Minister in Cabinet.
by Diogenes on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Actually it was me Centre. I didn’t want to pick a fight with them over something like that. I got on for $500 at $1.20 so I’ll make $100. That’ll do me.
by Darn on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:40 pm
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Did you see 7.30 report re some one mentioning carbon price re fairfax
Who was the senator who mentioned this today.
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:40 pm
I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet…
by Mod Lib on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:41 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Those Toowoomba fisherfolk must be able to cast a bloody long way.
by ruawake on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:42 pm
Pissing off a bunch of commercial fishers doesn’t count as a tough decision?
Or what about the draft Murry Darling proposal which has pissed off both Barnyard Joyce and the S.A. Premier, who have completely opposing views on the issue.
by ShowsOn on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:42 pm
I still think things are in flux and will not stop until some brutal realisations take place.
First entertainment companies should have nothing to do with news gathering. Then no one will mistake the celebrity gossip sites for journalism.
Secondly that you cannot make a profit doing good journalism. News organisations should be cooperatives. This way you avoid commercial conflicts of interests to a greater degree. This way a living can be made from doing news. The major cost will be in employing journalists to put things together. The smart ones will learn to craft their stories so there is a combination of text, photos audio and video. This with a very interactve feedback through social media. I can forsee a kind of weekly mix of QandA with AM breakfast and Financial review.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:42 pm
SK
So true
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:42 pm
Must be a Jesuit thing. Remind you of anyone? (hint:
)
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/06/16/vatileaks-puts-the-pope-in-publicity-hell.html
by Laocoon on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:43 pm
George Smurfhead Brandis
by ShowsOn on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:44 pm
SO
Yeah, the draft of the revised graft of a possible maybe sometime in the future MDB proposal.
by Diogenes on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:44 pm
my say #1274, it was Senator George Brandis “SC”
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:45 pm
Drayton Harbour?
If only!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:46 pm
What are you talking about? The plan will be legislated next year.
The big question is will the Liberals support it, because it seems the Nationals won’t.
by ShowsOn on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Ru – Qlders have been telling us they can do anything so this ain’t impossible
SK – the journos might be crying today but I’ve been crying for the past 6 years or so at the loss of something I used to love reading – the SMH. They should have thought about all the readers, not just some of them
BB’s right too. They’ve aided and abetted Abbott and Hockey to talk the joint and the Govt. down for the past 4 years. Reap what you sow.
by BH on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:48 pm
BW
7:30 doing defence force again
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Shows.
Be respectful.
George Smurfhead Brandis SC if you don’t mind!
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:48 pm
victoria,
It is still all the readers fault. They need to take a long hard look in the mirror.
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:49 pm
Ru – where exactly in Qld does Brandis live?
by BH on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:49 pm
What about.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:50 pm
7:30 Defence story boils down to Royal Commision or not Royal Commission that is the question.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:51 pm
SK
Of course, we the reader should be grateful to pay for the crap we have been served up.
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:52 pm
Mick Collins@ 1197
Convention is also being available in Parliament to answer questions in regard to a major policy just announced. I’m sure the precious petal in question will not, in the whole scheme of things, die of shame missing one day of the talk feast taking place in Rio this week.
by Gauss on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:53 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:53 pm
Brisbane
by ruawake on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:54 pm
I get first dibs on that idea Guytair.
See my post #661:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/06/17/galaxy-56-44-to-coalition-2/all-comments/#comment-1305526
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:54 pm
SO
Burke is still waiting for the states to agree to it.
by Diogenes on Jun 18, 2012 at 7:54 pm