Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I think if Gina Rinehart does get editorial control of Fairfax that the ALP can kiss being in government goodbye for a very long time…What paper is going to report anything good about the ALP?
What paper will print or publish letters or comments agreeing with ALP policy?
It will be a wasteland..and frankly the internet news sites cannot at present balance this influence…
by liyana on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:28 pm
BH
Grattan should definitely go
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:28 pm
guytaur,
Once the NBN goes through every home office can become a broadcaster, broadcasting and syndicating in a thousand media formats. It will be a veritable smorgasboard of choice for the consumer.
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:28 pm
Dan Ilic@danilic
Fairfax announces new broadsheet “Sydney Mining Herald”
by Schnappi on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Liyana
Have you been reading fairfax over the past two years. They have been more scathing of this govt than the Herald sun here in Victoria
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:29 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
I would pay $100 a year sub to a syndicate of @GMegalogenis @latingle @lenoretaylor @Jess_Irvine @1RossGittins #auspol
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:30 pm
BH
I think Tom Watson has his antennae tuned to Oz
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Hey finns
Your five is the same as my five!!
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Gauss
For crying out loud, go and read the IPCC report. The benefits are in no way uncertain.
So many things wrong with what you talk about. For a start the carbon price is $23 per ton.
You also need to make yourself aware of the commitments Australia has made in terms of emissions reductions.
If you view this solely in economic terms you are a moron.
by Astrobleme on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:31 pm
So, JFK was not a doughnut! Just when you think there are certainties life then WHAM!
by This little black duck on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:31 pm
SK
Just imagine. A television channel for every community radio station in existence now.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Gauss this statement at the end of Ergas’ post is mindumbingly stupid.
“All this for a minor trace gas that makes up only 390 parts per million, or 0.039% of the total Atmosphere. The raising of $24 Billion in Australia will have absolutely zero effect in reducing that amount of CO2, because Co2 levels are the same across the World. It will be 390PPM in new York, 390PPM in London, 390PPM in Sydney.”
Seriously, if this is the level of your debate you need to be laughed at – you are an idiot.
by Astrobleme on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:33 pm
4C on Manning and Assange.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:34 pm
1359
Those Germans are just to ordered and proper.
Maybe the doughnut rumour was started by the East Germans?
by Tom the first and best on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:34 pm
guytaur,
For the person who gets the model right they will make Murdoch look like a pauper.
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Hey Tweeps, it aint Sydney Mining Herald, it’s Gina Mining Horror
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Vic, great minds thunk alike
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Starts with the “Collateral Video”
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Are you referring to Dallas, heard others say he was psychic when he called himself a doughnut.
by castle on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:36 pm
SK
Totally agree. Will be the modern Mr Mayer.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:37 pm
I’d add Bill Evans to that list vic.
by castle on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:37 pm
The finns
Great minds who want moar!!!!
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:38 pm
castle
Bill Evans??
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:39 pm
SydneyWestralian Mining Herald.by poroti on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:39 pm
vic, the MOAR girl has been gagged. she sounds dejected
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:39 pm
poroti, The Red Herring Herald is coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:40 pm
vic
The finance bloke (on ten I think) who predicted interest rates would fall this year when everyone else said they would rise
by castle on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:40 pm
The finns
She is dejected. Her job might be on the chopping block
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:41 pm
castle
Tbh, i have never heard of him
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:42 pm
castle
That Bill Evans is not a Journalist. He is a Westpac finance expert.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:42 pm
The finns
Not so sure she has been gagged. Perhaps as the matter is before the courts, they need to hang back
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:43 pm
And for the five who would NOT get the gig -
Michelle Grattan
Nikki Savva
Terry McCran
Denis Shanahan
Steve Lewis
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:43 pm
BK
Spot on!!
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:44 pm
If we round the numbers, let’s suppose that SMH might get 200,000 copies per week day.
There are 2.5 million households (2006) in NSW, call it 2 million, you can’t get the SMH in many areas.
So one in ten households reads the SMH on a regular basis during the week.
Not looking good for Gina being able to affect public opinion, and getting worse by the day.
I think she’s done her dough.
by don on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:46 pm
JFK should have said ich bein Berliner, the addition of the indefinite article ein changed the object from a person to an object. An Austrian might say ein but a speaker of high German would not or possibly he not would say.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:47 pm
Name me one success she has had in this term of government whilst holding the balance of power in the LC
by bluegreen on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:47 pm
Ah, Gina becoming a meeja baroness,what could go wrong ?
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/executive-style/management/the-iron-lady-20120116-1q1u6.html#ixzz1y8mMmiqf
by poroti on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:47 pm
Apologies if it’s been mentioned already but catching up with the last couple of hundred posts I note some comment re the SMH.
I learned today that it and the Age are going over to tabloid format in March next year. This is in addition to the job losses etc mentioned above.
Oh well, the MSM couldn’t be dumbed down any more that it is already. Will this leave any broadsheets? What about the Canberra Times?
On another subject, Time magazine last week printed an interview with Chris Rock “comedian and provocateur”, in a regular column called 10 Questions.
He was asked, inter alia, about the performance of the Obama administration. He replied:
My feeling is much the same with the Federal Government. Many people get the impression nothing is happening, but they do keep winning. Look at the BISONs.
by Allan Moyes on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:47 pm
So Gina needs 1700 slave labourers to work for a pittance on 754 visas.
Fairfax is about to drop 1900 workers on the unemployment scrap heap.
Gina just bought herself enough Fairfax shares to put herself on the board.
Gina, don’t bother with the visas or the sackings just transfer the Fairfax workers’ employment locations and skills requirements.
After all, Fairfax journalists have been decrying for months the soft unemployed bastards who wont uproot their lives in Sydney to take on unskilled jobs in remote regions.
They’ll jump at the opportunity, surely?
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:47 pm
don,
She would have done better to start up her own. Cheaper, nimbler, lighter, then when Fairfax went bust she could have just purchased the subscriber list.
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:48 pm
Kidette
Gina doesn’t do “nimbler, lighter”.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:49 pm
In digital age. no company is safe. Nokia has sacked over 40,000 in the last 3 years. RIM Blackberry is almost on its knee. Innovate or die
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:49 pm
Oakeshott
Inadvertent spelling mistake in your post at 1384. “Ich bin Berliner”. Bein is a leg.
by Allan Moyes on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:50 pm
Don
She’s done her dough – yeah about 2% of her net wealth or if she has been clever possibly the kid’s inheritance.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:50 pm
Much as I despise the lopsidedness of our daily papers,
I wish all of you would spare a thought for the spin-off industries
- like newsagents, distributors (railways, van drivers, etc),
Do you want these industries to die?
not to mention the immediate industry – like printers, etc.
All I want is reportage that delineates between news and opinion.
Facts first, then personalised fiction.
This is what we should be cheering for, not for the end of newspapers.
by kezza2 on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:51 pm
G
Thank you. Amusing to see the head of the ADF stating valiantly that Defence would co-operate with whatever was decided by the Minister.
Indeed. If he wants to keep his job.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:52 pm
BK,
ROFLMAO!!
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:52 pm
not sure if this has been posted yet
Tony Abbott being scared by the boogie man CarbonTax in Parliament
http://i.imgur.com/clPng.gif
by sprocket_ on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:52 pm
Kezza
I think newsagents have already gone. We have had 4 close in Port Macquarie in 6 months. The supermarkets sell papers and will shortly sell scratchies. You just can’t hold the digital tide at bay.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:54 pm
Kezza, I too am still bemoaning the future prospects of the guy who walked in front of motor cars carrying a red flag.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:54 pm