Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
kezza
Newspapers are the walking dead. Books are lso in danger. In the case of books though I think there will always be a small market willing to pay more for the physical object.
Not so news. One can be sad at the demise of blacksmiths. It does not stop the change.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:55 pm
This is a rich lady who is demanding editorial control. That is (was) not the Fairfax way.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/rinehart-steps-up-fairfax-board-battle-20120618-20jem.html#ixzz1y8p8OhsW
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:57 pm
1399
They should bring those back!
Cities would be safe cleaner places.
by Tom the first and best on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:58 pm
G
Thanks for advice on 7.30
I imagine that one of the issues with a Royal Commission, going back 6 decades or so, is that many a Defence Minister and many a prime minister might not want certain conversations and certain communications see the light of day.
The issue is, of course, that one way or another, 6 decades of ministers and governments have failed in their duty of care for those most vulnerable in the armed forces.
The exception would have to be Minister Smith who has picked at the scabs until they have started bleeding.
In relation to AWB analogies, anyone wondering whether elements in Defence are capable of fighting a rearguard action, replete with dissimulation etc, etc, etc, need only recall how painful and difficult it was to get to the truth about just several minutes’ worth of command activity aboard HMAS Voyager immediately before and during her final moments.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:58 pm
Guytaur
I guess there are still a few people who prefer vinyl to CD but Not enough to sustain a viable industry.
Books like vinyl will become objects of fetish for antiquarians and afficiandos.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:58 pm
Oakshott@1393:
She’s not about to ask centrelink for help, agreed.
But she is wasting her time, and all of us only have a limited amount.
A mate of mine of about the same vintage as me says “I’ve got 500 weekends left. What am I going to do with them?”
Like the knowledge that you are to die in the morning, it sharpens the mind wonderfully.
In Gina’s case, she might not have 500 weekends, and she should examine what she is going to do with her life apart from making squillions which it is impossible to spend.
A shroud has no pockets.
by don on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:59 pm
Guardian article that Fairfax had a board with no experience running newspapers.
So now they have less with rhinehart-weird
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/jun/18/fairfax-media-australia?newsfeed=true
by Schnappi on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:59 pm
So, you both think I am pining for a romantic past?
So be it.
Start preparing now to tell your grandkids about the good old days of newsprint.
I’m just about to revive the Gestetner to roneo off leaflets that tell the news, rather than opinion!
by kezza2 on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:00 pm
bw
YW. good repeat with updates on Manning on 4C tonight.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:00 pm
Reflecting on the ABC TV News tonight, I could not but help to see the parallels between the Fairfax and Greek stories: long period of ignorance (innocent or willful) or denial of forces of change, very poor leadership, then catastrophe, revolution, when the forces of change become really irresistible.
No doubt we are currently living in the midst of other such events (climate change? mining bust??) that dot history – reminds me a bit of Barbara Tuchman’s rather turgid history book The March of Folly which I have not ever managed to finish, but starts with the disastrous war nearest to my name
by Laocoon on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:02 pm
Like you comment Don. She is not into philanthropy and doesn’t want to give it to the kids. I suspect she wants power and is misguided in thinking that a newspaper will give it to her.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:02 pm
Gina’s new tabloid masthead = Mine Campf.
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:02 pm
OC
The irony is that thanks to ipod/iphone CD’s are less viable than vinyl.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:03 pm
In response to Don. Perhaps only 200,000 people buy the SMH. However, in all the workplaces I’ve been at, when there is spare time at lunch, people will surf the net and go straight to smh.com.au. Apparently it’s the most popular news website.
How the pay wall will affect that will be interesting. However, I assume that those articles which Gina thinks are important will be free to view…like those by Jo Nova for example…I’m sure she and Lord Monckton will get regular gigs and exposure.
by liyana on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:03 pm
The interesting thing was that her assertive buying did not cause a spike in the price… no takeover premium appeared. This should have been the certain sign that Fairfax is the corporate equivalent of a dead cat, sans bounce.
Nevertheless, Ms Rhinehart has done well in her investments in Fairfax to date. She is on a nice little paper profit because of the share spike caused by the mass cost-cutting exercise.
It remains to be seen whether Ms Rhinehart will be able to facilitate her 1984 effect.
Rest assured that F,B,B&Co will advertise should Ms Rhinehart gain edictorial influence.
We would feel that this is in line with our vision statement, ‘Greed is Good with a Heart of Gold.’
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:03 pm
I told my kids about the time I worked as a telegram boy – they said I was making it up.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:04 pm
Kiddo, Mine Campf = My struggle with My Billions
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:04 pm
So, shortly we’ll have Rinehart vs Murdoch.
Sort of like Collingwood vs Manly.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:04 pm
SK
Clever
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:05 pm
Guytaur
Yep I am already 2technologies behind.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:05 pm
Space Kidette
Gold Gold Gold. Take a bow
by poroti on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:06 pm
OC@1398:
Our local newsagent has been trying to sell for two years, no takers. It’s only a matter of time before they fold. Scratchies is the only thing holding newsagencies together, it is often hard to buy the SMH because of the lineup for gambling by the mathematically illiterate.
Fulvio had it right –
You either accept change and deal with it or it rolls over the top of you.
by don on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:06 pm
Would the cross-media ownership laws allow Gina Rinehart to be a director of both FXJ and TEN?
by Laocoon on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:06 pm
I still buy second hand CDs. They are cheaper than legal downloads.
by ShowsOn on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:07 pm
The fact is quality journalism will essentially shft online with paper based version simply becoming tabloid fodder under the regin of murdoch and reinhart who will canibalise each other. Age readers will leave the paper on mass and shift to online journals.they simply will not read reinharts propaganda any more they would bolts. If the age shifts to completely online as all papers will then newspapers have lost their competitive advantage and anyone can set up a publication aka eureka alan kohler.
by the spectator on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:07 pm
IMHO, the Fairfax Board should announce that, having pretty well destroyed a thriving company, qua investment, and having been complicit in the destruction of editorial quality, they will no longer accept any directors’ emoluments.
This, short of resigning in disgrace, is the very least thing they should do.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:07 pm
But how to decide who wins?
They will both be running loss making businesses in order to try and have political influence. Whats the basis for assigning points in that competition?
by imacca on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:08 pm
SO
We are in competition then. One of the dlights of my life is fossicking through rack after rack at Vinnie’s in the hope of finding gold amongst the dross.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:08 pm
Kezza, I’ d be far more interested in buying your roneod leaflet of actual news, even at 3 or 4 dollars a sheet, than the opinionated pap and falsehood that comes out of Fairfax, or Murdoch for that matter.
The fact that a few industries might suffer or disappear as a result of the excision of the printed cancer that is Fairfax, is probably a price worth paying for the greater good.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:10 pm
Reading this article by a former editor-in-chief of the Age does provide a glimmer of hope. There will soon be many former employees of Fairfax and Murdoch media with no prospect of a mainstream media job, who will be relying on the new media to earn a living.
On the basis that Mrs Reinhart will ensure that only those journalists who agree with her views will retain their employment, there will be many fair minded journalists seeking an outlet for their skills and experience.
Hopefully a forward thinking electronic publisher will seek the best of this available talent.
by citizen on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:10 pm
There is no reason to support the view that Ms Rhinehart is buying Fairfax to make a direct buck or to compete with Mr Murdoch.
The latter publishes ‘The Australian’ at a paper loss. But what price influence?
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:11 pm
Ask yourselves this – who do you predominantly comment on?
Do you really want for there to be no newspapers at all?
Seriously?
Or is our news landscape going to consist of broadcast radio and television, youtube and online commentary? And no hard copy?
We really do need our journos and our newspapers – we just need them to be less partisan. While you may think that newspapers are an anachronism, we need replacement industries before you wish them extinct.
Or didn’t you think about the joblessness that would accompany such a demise.
by kezza2 on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:11 pm
Anyone know what this relates to? please
by BH on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:11 pm
Tell kids that once upon a time to make a phone call you put your finger into a hole in a circle above a set of numbers and actually dialled the phone number.
Tell them that all TV shows were in black and white.
Tell them that for sporting events on the other side of the world we sometimes had to wait for a week after the event to actually see it.
These things all happened in my lifetime, not my grandparents.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:11 pm
4C. Interviewing an Anonymous member
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:11 pm
Evening Bludgers
Sad about the 1900… may a better job fall in their lap.
by Gecko on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:13 pm
Anyone else linked to the Big Gina profile in The Monthly of May 2012? Fascinating in a gruesome way:
http://www.themonthly.com.au/gina-rinehart-s-quest-respect-and-gratitude-what-gina-wants-nick-bryant-5024
by C@tmomma on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Boer
That would not be correct. The average entry price of her ~12.5% stake in Feb was ~$0.82/share – current market is $0.65
by Laocoon on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Any truth in the rumour that Gina is buying SMH to stop the MOAR on her family feud on SMH?
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Astrobleme @ 1358 & 1361
A number of points.
1. First of all don’t refer to genuine posters on this blog as idiots. It unbecomes you who I otherwise feel is a serious poster.
2. I’m well read up on the IPPC science and to say there’s no uncertainty to future outcomes is just not so. There were a number of interesting posts on Climate Scientist Judith Curry’s blog some months ago about handling uncertainty e.g. see here: -
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2011BAMS3139.1
3. Nevertheless don’t misrepresent my position on what globally we should do re insuring re GHG’s. I disagree with the government’s policies (particularly in respect of the all up cost and the fact we appear to be out in front of the herd).
4. The $26 refers to the 1st link I gave. If you look carefully at the link (to establish the split up because domestic, commercial & industrial) you will realise its date is before the final price of $23 was decided.
5.
Where did this come from? The first I’ve seen of it is your 1361. It’s not in the hard copy of the Australian. Engas’s article is just on economics.
by Gauss on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:15 pm
4C now outlining existence of Inditement on Assange.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Kezza@1431:
Looks like it. Can you read graphs?
No? Didn’t think so.
We can bemoan the loss of the romantic wind powered square rigger sailing ships, or we can get on with life.
No doubt there is not much call for buggy and whip makers, but we cope somehow.
Check the unemployment figures for Oz. We are doing well without those fine and formerly profitable enterprises.
by don on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:18 pm
don
The problem, as I see it, is that technology insists that people must do the changing to conform to technology’s needs.
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:18 pm
I remember getting up at 6am on 25/11/1963 to see the films of Kennedy’s assassination two days earlier. ATN 7 Had flown the film out from LA and rushed them from the first flight to arrive at Kingsford Smith.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:18 pm
4C next week. Gina Rinhart
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:18 pm
BH@1432,
Answer:
by C@tmomma on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:18 pm
Maybe Rupert should divorce Wendi and marry Gina. Then they will control EVERYTHING
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:19 pm
I note Essential has set a few screws loose. (Love the smell of a dud poll in the morning) Hold the line True Believers our day is coming.
by Gecko on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:19 pm
Gecko
Fortunately, they are not in Spain and the government they have been bashing for four years has got unemployment down to around 5%.
I suppose they could consider:
(1) teaching in remote Indigenous schools
(2) working with refugee resettlement
(3) picking strawberries
(4) working at DOCs for abused children and bashed wives
(5) doing FIFO labourer jobs in the mines
(6) working as shop assistants and wait persons.
(7) working as a brickie’s labourer.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:20 pm
Ah, forget it.
I’m obviously talking about appreciating dinosaurs before the big wipeout.
In a few years we’ll be oohing and ahhing over fossils.
And by that time there’ll be no museums; there’ll be a virtual experience without leaving the comfort of your own home – between playing/inventing more and more realistic war games.
by kezza2 on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:21 pm