Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
#fakeAbbott#
No. No. No.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:42 pm
BK
Don’t worry, you’re far too young to appeal to Sophie.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Good question by the SC and carbon tax lol…..
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:43 pm
#fakesophie#
*croons, Dan, baby, my shed or your’s*
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Whew! Thanks Dan. I feel much safer now. Goodnight!
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:43 pm
The 90/10 split never seem to be polled by any of the polling companies?
By the way, I’m not one of the ‘polls are rigged’ believers.
by Swing Required on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:43 pm
#fakeMoncton#
One has to admire Mr Brandis. He is treating the hoi polloi with the contempt they deserve, intellectual pygmies that they are.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Like your leader, the SC is an Idiot too
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:45 pm
#fakeAbbott#
No. Nope. No.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:46 pm
#fakeAbott#
No way.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:46 pm
#fakeAbbott#
No. Never. No.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Of course they could as long as Abbott was PM. He is hated now. Imagine what it would be like after he screwed the economy.
by Gary on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Time for bed. Good night all.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Yes, history will record just how much systemic damage the event of 2010 did to Labor.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:47 pm
I get that… but it was the same for Howard & Keating within certain sections. In my circle I sense a shift in the other direction. Yes there are rusted-ons who will never change but a great many are still undecided and they generally prefer labor’s big ticket items.
Last night someone (either TP of Spur) opined that a ‘we will not oppose the GST’ event was wishful thinking… but I feel ‘coalition nonsense’ under scrutiny is the event in waiting.
we’ll see.
by Gecko on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:48 pm
I did have a good laugh at the SC tonight. Not even I could sit strait faced while thinking of the spray he was going to get in return.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:48 pm
JG on lateline now.
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:48 pm
I know what you mean Boerwar…just try telling them how good for Australia a Latham Government would have been and they just laugh.
If only they were as smart as bludgers eh? We could have had Latham strong-arming a few world leaders and showing em how we do things down under…
by Mod Lib on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:48 pm
So you think the ALP is going to win the next NSW election?
The next Qld election?
….or, if you don’t, how many elections is it going to be before they have a hope?
by Mod Lib on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:50 pm
I’d suggest that its the norm rather than the exception for people to vote differently in the state than they do federally
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:52 pm
scorps,
That’s 900k. Travel safely.
by This little black duck on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:53 pm
WOW, its any concocted explanation night tonight aint it!
At some point the penny drops…
(Gosh its been a while coming though!)
by Mod Lib on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Histories not your strong point, is it ML ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:54 pm
I suggest they leave her right where she is. (Does that mean we’re ‘hung’?)
by Gecko on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Boerwar
And so she should. But she did not express such a perspective in her insipid response.
by psyclaw on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:56 pm
#fakeAbott#
YES!
by Boinzo on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:57 pm
And once the polls turn to Labor, what then for comments like this?
In short, there’s an awful lot of Liberal hubris flying about the traps these days, yet Liberals of all people should recall the Howard years when he routinely came from behind to win office.
by confessions on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:58 pm
RO @ 1592
Seems we crossed over… sorry, I’m a bit slow tonight.
by Gecko on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Latest from Andrew Elder
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/goading-and-politics.html
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Alberici shows her lack of class, if not talent.
To the PM “isn’t it the case that we survived the GFC through luck. Many are saying that we (ie you, JG) shouldn’t be so smug about it”
Alberici and Sales are in trainging for employment as tabloidists …. maybe both going to the new Fairfax digital operation.
by psyclaw on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Love this bit from Elder
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Mod Lib
The inability to see that Labor is doomed under Gillard is similar to the experience felt by cults facing their doomsday event except the Gillard supporters are expecting doomsday to disappear, not to come.
Its going to be OK:
1. Godwin Grech 2 will turn around the polls
if not that then
2. July one and everything changes
if not that then
3. people aren’t paying attention at the moment so the polls don’t reflect the opinion
if not that then
4. when push comes to shove no one is going to elect Abbott
if not that then
5. in many of Howards elections there was a swing to him at the last minute
if not that then (insert comment about media review, fall of rupert murdoch, conversion of Michelle Grattan etc etc)
Some people here just refuse that the ALP position is diabilical and only a leadership change to Rudd can change it.
by bluegreen on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:00 pm
at the hight of the Hawke/Keating years, we had Sir Joh in QLD.
We had Griener in NSW.
At the hight of Howard, we had Bracksy here in Vic.
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Yep, don’t worry guys and gals, the turnaround is just around the corner, just like it was after the Feb leadership spill, the new year, Xmas, the carbon tax passage and the new senate….
Don’t listen to anyone who talks about denial- its just a river.
Everything is going swimmingly and Abbott will surely lose as the 54-59 TPP is “soft”.
OK, good night, I’m off for a brief respite (not to mention sleep) in the real world- back in fantasy world later.
Dream on all
by Mod Lib on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Time for bed. The boring as batshit brigade are on board with their repetitive mantra
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:05 pm
The King is dead. Long live the Queen.
by Gecko on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Astrobleme @ 1491
2. Thanks for pointing out the thread on uncertainty at James Annan’s blog. Some interesting comments. It’s actually a follow on from a criticism by a guy called Ben Pile here: – http://www.climate-resistance.org/2012/06/reinventing-precaution.html
of a article by WA psychologist, Stephen Lewandowsky, “The Inescapable Implication of Uncertainty” here: – http://planet3.org/2012/04/08/the-inescapable-implication-of-uncertainty/
Future reading.
4. The $26 is actually embedded in the old link I gave.
Your 1499
Not sure what you mean here. Because there is uncertainty it doesn’t mean you can’t take it into account. However the debates I see revolve around the “how” of how you take it into account.
I have an early start tomorrow so I must turn in. Nite all.
by Gauss on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:06 pm
I don’t recall O’Barrelll or Can Do being very unpopular before the election.
by Gary on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:08 pm
From talking to a few blokes I reckon there is the misogynist factor, one said she reminded him of his ex wife, maybe with a bit of prodding you could get them to open up about what they feel and why the hate the PM, the shock jocks and media really play into this with nasty rhetoric, I find the older blokes are the worst for it, the generation where if the dinner wasn’t ready when they got home from work they would rage and let the wife know who was the boss of the house.
I don’t like to use the word “wife beaters” but that’s the type hating on our PM, I reckon that’s why country NSW and Queensland hate her the most, red neck wonderland.
by Seasprite on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:08 pm
ML’s second name is Hubris.
by Gary on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:09 pm
Says s/he who still thinks that Gillard being toppled signals a Turnbull Lib leadership.
by confessions on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:10 pm
I understand the gloom, especially as hate radio dominates the airwaves in NSW/Qld. But there is an air of unreality to it and to the polling. You get a better grasp of the absurdity by looking at the results from some of the secondary questions.
Galaxy asks the punters if they think carbon pricing and the mining tax have failed. The majority believe they have … and they haven’t even come in yet, FFS! Essential asks them who’d be better on various topics with the coalition leading on all of them.
Get this! They’re ahead on health with no policies and Dutton as their health spokesman!It surely has to be a reaction to media fluff! Eventually someone will have to actually think about the questions posed and how it might affect them.
I like to think the public isn’t really that stupid. But then again maybe I have underestimated the impact of constant lies from the opposition and the media. After all, in the US a majority once believed, maybe still does, that Saddam organised 9/11 and there is no reason to think they’d be dumber than us, even if it gives us some comfort.
I still like to think that at some point sanity must prevail. I know the polling in NSW and Qld stinks. Mostly that is a carry-over of the long-tarnished state governments who’d been in for far too long. Federally this is simply not the same.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Completely and utterly offensive and shows your bitterness at the Australian electorate not agreeing with you!
If you think the 7 / 12 million Australian voters planning to vote for the Coalition are doing so because they are “wife beaters” I suggest that says more about you and an inability to accept defeat, than it says about the Australian electorate.
Epic fail.
by Mod Lib on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Sad but true.
by Gecko on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Mod Lib
treating the populace like idiots is the reason you launch an election campaign saying ‘moving forward’ 57 times
by bluegreen on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Not as a consequence of events he could control or even predispose however … If the ALP is to recover, it must author all of its own “fortuity”.
Some of that might include:
a) a perception that Abbott has been Henny Penny on carbon pricing, economics/ALP have been the adults in the room
b) boredom with Abbott/scandal over his own “Grech” matters
c) The Murdochracy falling into disrepute even amongst non-committeds
That might not come in time to save the ALP however.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:14 pm
Is it safe to post now- I,m secretly in love with Julia.
Don’t tell Rummel tomorrow.
by Pipe Fitter on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:14 pm
Boer War 967..Re China and energy supplies
______________________
Sorry to make this comment so long after you post but I have just read it and agree
I note that last week the USA …in it’s arrogant way was trying to subborn various countries into joining it’s embargo on Iranian Oil
They now grant”ememptions” to those who ask and put up a case…
not China however,,,who replied with a rather terse message which basically said “F.. Off USA”…..
and pointed out that Iran’s oil was vital to their economy and they wouldn’t be seeking any”exemption ” fropm the USA anyway…why would they ?
I’ll post a story from the Atlantic Weekly shortly re the danger of O-Bomb-a succumbing to the pressure from Netanyahu and Tel Aviv for a war in the Gulf to smash Iran down
It might well end the Obama presidency with the resulting rise in oil prices and it’s effect on the fragile world economy
by deblonay on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:14 pm
Ha!! Only in Australia could a ‘Gorgeous Dunny’ emit greater wisdom than a Modern Lib
by Gecko on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Victoria, the stunts and skullduggery in the Elder quote where exemplified with the performance in todays senate performance.(For transcript check Bernards piece in crickeys stump.)
Wherein Senator Fifield obviously assumes complex issues can be addressed with just simple slogans. Hang on – his party thinks you can run a country on just slogans and it’s people are just cannon fodder to their political ambitions. What a disgrace!
by Ootz on Jun 18, 2012 at 11:18 pm