Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
SK
I noticed your comment this morning about feeling lucky. Any reason?
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 10:56 am
victoria,
Check this out for defending the indefensible.
by Space Kidette on Jun 19, 2012 at 10:57 am
SK
They disgust me
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 10:59 am
The decline of Fairfax is diabolical for the left in Australia. This is a watershed moment that will be written about in history books. And the folk here on PB cheering it because Michelle Grattan or Peter Hartcher might be out of a job, just don’t get the ramifications.
by bluegreen on Jun 19, 2012 at 10:59 am
Bemused,
I haven’t heard of such a service, but if you find out, I’d happily subscribe to it.
————————-
On Fairfax in general, I used to be an avid SMH reader, but now I simply look up the news on my phone browser, or just follow links from my Twitter feed. It’s instant, and it’s updated with developments through the day and night.
I feel sorry for the people losing their jobs though. I think it’s a bit ordinary of people to gloat over them as I’ve seen some do on social media sites.
The interesting thing from Brandis’ absurd question yesterday linking the Carbon Tax to Fairfax job losses is whether it might give journos pause to reconsider going along with Abbott’s use of other job losses for political gain, instead of mindlessly repeating his musings.
by Burgey on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:00 am
SK
Not the kouk of course!
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:00 am
bg
Who is cheering the demise of fairfax?
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:01 am
victoria,
Oddly enough no. I woke up feeling a real ‘buzz’. Maybe it is just the absence of negativity!
by Space Kidette on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:02 am
SK
Fwiw, I too feel quite positive, despite our msm behaving as pathetically as ever.
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:03 am
#fakeAbbott#
How many times do I have to tell you, #fakeSophie# that ‘No’ means ‘No’.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:04 am
This is the sort of sharp, incisive discussion we are in for should the Coalition win government.
Sussan Ley, Abbott’s shadow minister for employment participation, 9someone so important that I’ve never heard of her0, talking about work for the dole.
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/coalition-pursues-workfordole-scheme-a-dud-in-uk-20120618-20kau.html
by leone on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:05 am
bg
Not to worry.
What’s left of us Lefties will retire to our digital same-same fortresses.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:06 am
Ox Pol Tragic@1893,
Coming from you, I am flattered. I now have a warm and fuzzy feeling inside.
by C@tmomma on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:07 am
bluegreen @ 1902
How right you are!
Logging in to PB is becoming increasingly like entering a parallel universe where facts are simply what you wish them to be.
I may start donning a tinfoil hat before logging in.
by bemused on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:08 am
BB
It doesn’t matter if the public don’t follow Fairfax’s commentary making the operation unviable under normal conditions. We’ve seen how Murdoch has operated the OO with a very small readership yet the themes he chooses dominate the news agenda. That’s what Reinhart will have seen and she will be prepared to run at a loss (and buy up more of the company if other shareholders bail out) so long as her other interests profit from her loud voice.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:08 am
Very informative article backgrounding the Syrian conflict linked to by
Moon of Alabama
Syria’s Islamist Movement and the 2011-12 Uprising
by JohD on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:08 am
So true
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:09 am
leone
If Mr van Onselen is correct, Ms Ley’s current occupation of doing nothing much as shadow, while picking up her fat pay check, equates to the dole without work.
Anyway, nice to see that the suggestion that she should be in line for the chop seems to have sparked some life into Ms Ley’s embers.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:10 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
Mark Scott is in charge of the ABC. To me, the ABC sounds just like the radio arm of News Ltd. maybe that’s just me http://thehoopla.com.au/fairfax-long-goodbye/ +1
by The Finnigans on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:10 am
I would have thought this is a perfect time for ABC News to aggressively position itself as the authoritative source of news in Australia, working its digital distribution channels real hard – take over from both smh.com.au/theage.com.au news.com.au et al whilst they are down and out
I am, however, not holding my breath
by Laocoon on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:12 am
If JG announced a cure for cancer had been found the Press would report -
Gillard threatens Health professionals future
by CTar1 on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:12 am
How stupid to compare the Kennedy and Lennon murders to the announcement of the Fairfax ructions. We’ve all known for months (years even) that Fairfax was going to be gutted but no one expect Kennedy or Lennon to be cut down
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:13 am
JoHD
That article is fairly indicative, IMHO, why Mr Sheridan was ringing his hands in despair over Syria. He has twigged that this mob is rather more friendly to Al Qaida than is Mr Assad.
The West is deep in ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’ territory in Syria.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:13 am
There are two quite different aspects of the demise of fairfax and the same would be largely true of the demise of the ABC.
Firstly the left should celebrate. The faux-left media is just as dangerous to the left as the Murdoch media. More so perhaps. Having an outlet seen as left but which really isn’t at all hurts the left.
Secondly there is the issue of media diversity. Obviously less is bad. But if we are changing media paradigms maybe one death of an old media ugly will give birth to three new crickey’s. Who knows one might even be genuinely left and persuasive – not stuck in the Abbott paradigm as the abc so badly is.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:13 am
my say
Was that comment necessary? You certainly lack good grace.
by MTBW on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:19 am
The decline of diversity is more the point and relevant to all sides of the political spectrum in the long term. That it is described as a watershed moment with ‘ramifications’ to be written about in history books – is indicative of blown-up importance given to a select few who have only themselves to blame for abusing the readership they once enjoyed.
by Gecko on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:25 am
Ms Savva takes up the cudgels today in ‘The Australian’ on Mr Abbott’s ministery. She takes a different tack from Mr van Onselen. She does not name the names of those who should get the chop, restricting herself to suggesting that Ms Bishop the Elder should become speaker and Mr Andrews should do the right thing and take a step back.
She says that Mr Abbott will not do a reshuffle before the election.
She confuses the issue a bit by talking about preselections.
In terms of the ministery Ms Savva approves of the following named people: Messers Hockey, Robb, Sinodinos, Cormann, Smith, Porter, Turnbull, Pyne, Brandis, Fifield and Hunt as well as Ms Bishop the Younger. She regards Mr Turnbull as a bit of mess whom Mr Abbott will have to sort out somehow or other.
There you have it. The Dream Team.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:25 am
I’ll give Gillard until July 14th. If she hasn’t ended the formal alliance with the Greens by that date, then she clearly doesn’t understand the problem and all bets are off
by spur212 on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:26 am
spur212
I hope you let her know this important deadline.
by CTar1 on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:28 am
I wonder if there was a point some, say in the 80′s where people with genuine insight and intelligence, who would have in the 60′s chosen a media career, started choosing alternate careers. Say human rights lawyers.
We don’t seem to have a media with much talent at all. The right is at the Bolt PVO level – the left has almost noone.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:30 am
The front cover of tomorrow’s SMH (via Mr Denmore)
https://twitter.com/MrDenmore/status/214884534750162944/photo/1/large
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:31 am
Yeah!! When I first “discovered” cave art (In Dad’s zines, National Geographic, I think, as a little kid recovering from a nasty childhood illness) the Lasceaux Caves were still latest Big Archeological News. With pictures of Egyptian archeology (& 2 other super articles, one on Florence, the other on art treasures found by US forces in a mountain cave where Nazis had stashed them) they are among the most formative influences on the person I still am.
Our little cave “down the road” in the Gatton area is very special because it’s incised/ sculpted not painted (luckily, or 2011′s floods would have washed it clean – maybe the reason it is incised!); but it’s too easily accessible from the road (so especially vulnerable) and, thankfully, almost impossible to find unless a visitor has directions – they aren’t on tourist info in “i” places.
As I’ve offered previously, if any PBer is up this way and wants to view it and the magnificent rockfaces and other volcanic remnants, I’m happy to find maps and details. If you’re “into” geology, the sweep of Ranges from the (geologically ‘young’) Warrumbungles, through Northern NSW, Focal Peak Shield/ Mt Barney spectacular geology, the Toowoomba-Lockyer-Esk area to the Glasshouse Mountains is well worth a camping trip. Don’t forget magnificent Carnarvon Gorge & its painted rock art, and beautiful and culturally very significant Bunya Mountains, home of Indigenous “Bunya Mountains Gatherings” (until 1902).
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:32 am
@spur/1926
With the Mining Magnets integrating themselves with Coalition (MP’s buying shares) + Media (Rineheart asking for 3 board positions and right to hire and fire), I hope you find that the Alliance MAY be the least of the issues.
by zoidlord on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:34 am
Wwp
Recently had a chat with someone. Said that students graduating in journalism now, get work as spin merchants for corporations
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:35 am
As expected, Tony Abbott is fund-raising off the back of his Anti Carbon ‘Tax’ Crusade:
https://twitter.com/Simon_Kennedy/status/214887475615760384/photo/1
by C@tmomma on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:35 am
WWP
I would say that the Left has talent. They are often in the form of comedians (Will Anderson), Songwriters (Tim Freedman) and there are the odd presenters (Aly).
In terms of people that write strong, modern and thoughtful pieces or can go on tv and deliver a stirring message I can’t think of any.
Who in the left has as large a following as Bolt has on the right? (and no I am not saying that Bolt is thoughtful or modern).
by bluegreen on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:35 am
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gay-marriage-debate-brought-forward-20120619-20l31.html
by MTBW on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:36 am
(apologies to Messrs Plant and Page).
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:37 am
Bemused I had dinner with mum and my youngest sister last night. Both are loyal Labor people and unlikely to ever vote for the dark side like their evil son/brother. However they have joined the Ruddstoration. I couldn’t believe the angst sister expressed about the PM. She is GAY so perhaps the PM’s views on same sex marriage has swung her. In summary they both want Rudd back urgently.
Sister did say that she actually prefers Turnbull to Gillard and would hate to have to choose between those two.
Personally I think the PM is in deep deep ditty ditty doo doo.
by davidwh on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:37 am
Meaning he’s a liberal Liberal in the Menzies/ Holt/ Gorton etc tradition; not a hard-right, mean & nasty The rich must inherit the Earth and all that’s in, on, under & above it NeoCon/ NeoLib conservative & religious nutter!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:39 am
Good point BG – so forms of media … Hmmm
Victoria in house corp teams are chockablock full of media / political hybrid wannabes.
I know one resource co that is essentially a dumping ground for former labor teams and another that seems to be mostly lib. Excellent point.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:39 am
@davidwh/1937
Turnbull isn’t coming back as Opposition Leader, so your sister will have to make choice.
by zoidlord on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:41 am
The Age has been doing nothing for the left in the last few years.
by Gary on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:42 am
Davidwh
Hmmmmm
by bluegreen on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:43 am
Someones been reading American Republican stuff.
by CTar1 on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:43 am
As usual, the great PJK got it right about the modern press gallery. When he was interviewed on Lateline last year about the two policies on carbon reduction, he said wtte “Where’s the sleepy press gallery in all this? Why isn’t Abbott being flogged on this [climate change]? Is there no premium on quality any more? All they do is say ‘Well, he said this, she said that’ and it passes for reporting. Where are we that you can’t get a tick for a piece of good public policy like this? [the carbon pricing package]”
Spot on. Am I imagining that I used to open the paper and read multi-page pieces by gallery journos which looked into policy announcements? Got a range of opinions from various sectors on them and spent time explaining the policy to the readers? I’m sure I’m not. Instead we have “live blogs” of what’s happening on the floor of parliament, with no critique of what is said, just the print version of the 20 second sound grab.
When you think about it, many of the journos in Canberra have actually become the very thing they deride – no more than live bloggers of various goings on, with little insight other than they occasionally say hello to a politician as the latter is on their way into either chamber.
by Burgey on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:43 am
What a joke!
by Gary on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:44 am
david, what is their view of one T. Abbott?
by Gary on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:45 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
First view of Microsoft’s Win8 Surface Tablet. It looks good – http://www.highsnobiety.com/news/2012/06/19/microsoft-surface-windows-8-tablet-computer/
by The Finnigans on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:46 am
bemused – you remind me of some of the members of a Branch I was formerly part of due to boundaries. You throw out the same old trash, causing angst and when somebody calls you on it you say ‘who, what, me!!’.
The Branch grew some eventually and turfed out those members and united they are now doing good work with other Branches.
Bludgers I hope you can pass this by and carry on the great convo and posts we had yesterday but I just got tired of the an elderly, Labor life member, continually showing disregard for others.
by BH on Jun 19, 2012 at 11:47 am