Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
Page 1 of 3 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-19/newman3a-202c000-too-many-public-servants/4079460
Can-Do proposing 20000 Public Servants will have to go and taxes and charges will have to rise.
Will Abbott support the move to these GBNTs?
by BK on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Thats because all of Rummels cheques bounce
by Mick Collins on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:12 pm
bemused
as you know, I have frequently told you that your posts are more likely to lose voters for Labor than to win them. Thus I concur with the perception of many here that you come across as a Liberal.
I know you don’t understand those criticisms; like Bilbo, I put that down to a lack of self awareness on your part.
My husband tends to mumble. He’s trained himself to stop and think, when someone doesn’t understand something he says, whether they’re just being stupid or whether he hasn’t expressed himself clearly.
Perhaps you need to do the same; don’t leap to the immediate conclusion that the other person is making stuff up, but consider whether or not they actually have a point about the way you express yourself.
I mean, take a look at your supporters on this blog – they’re nearly all Liberals. What does that tell you about which side you appear to belong to?
by zoomster on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:14 pm
View details ·
View details ·
View details ·
View details ·
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:14 pm
DDT – I should have said ‘luckily threw themselves out’. Troublemakers sooner or later wake up and realise they’re time is up and they move on to newer pastures to get their self gratification. What a difference once they’ve moved on.
by BH on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Zoomster
It is not that as an atheist you MUST think or do any one thing. it is just that it is much easier for the public to understand when you do what is expected. That is my point. Teenagers being teenagers raise few eyebrows but someone of 45 doing the same does (Unfair yes probably, but still reality).
So atheists living in defacto relationships are expected to be “progressive”. If they are not then they need to explain why, or the public will think that it is just self serving. Christians on the other hand are expected to be conservative on social issues so only need to explain themselves if they do not follow the script.
Pacifist military men and warlike hippies ditto. Hope you can follow my reasoning. Bit tricky but so is life and politics.
by daretotread on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:18 pm
zoomster said:
Thta’s fair comment but m,isleading in context. The point here is surely whether there is an atheist rationale (or at the very least, a rationale that is not in explicit contradiction with atheism) for denying marriage to same sex couples.
You seem to be holding out the right to be as “hypocritical, contradictory, confused and inconsistent as any religious person” but on this issue, the religious may not be that contradictory. They believe on religious grounds that homosexuality ought to be derogated and denying marriage rights to such people is an example of that. The very word “religion” speaks to constraints on human conduct based in metaphysical mandates and taboo.
So maybe you have to be a lot more contradictory than religious folk to oppose gay marriage as an atheist — iither that or simply assert that there is some secular basis for discrimination on the basis of sexual preference.
I suppose one might add that being as “contradictory & etc” as the religious is not a virtue in a PM. We expect people in chrage of public policy to be coherent and predictable rather than capricious and whimsical. We might live with a bit of the latter if the whimsy were amusing and innocuous, but in this case, it isn’t.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Usage note: I understand that the PM is an agnostic rather than an atheist.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:19 pm
BH
Where did they go? I suspect they joined the Greens, like many of others. Ever thought that they may see YOU as a trouble maker
by daretotread on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:20 pm
To improve the Liberals chances in the next election they need to select one of their Renaissance men.
G. Christenson has an enormous intellect and has a very large future in front of him. Paired with the nimble minded B. Bishop as demonstrated by her creative use of paraffin to bathe peoples elderly parents would make a winning duo.
Abbott by supporting a guided democracy has seduced even Lyndsey Fox into expressing proto-fascist views. This man is more dangerous than a mere idiot.
by Bill B. on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:21 pm
@Bk/2100
The Real Action Man Turning to Cuttering Ram.
by zoidlord on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:22 pm
Nah, she’s an atheist. Said as much during the 2010 election campaign:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/pm-tells-it-as-she-sees-it-on-the-god-issue-20100629-zjad.html
by rishane on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:23 pm
DTT
How do you explain these uploads of public pronouncements on youtube from the great man himself, then?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnp1-D4J2Ts&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74pSjzOChdg&feature=youtu.be
Agreed. Woeful stuff indeed!
by kezza2 on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:23 pm
No, I think people opposed to same-sex marriage need to explain why in the early 21st century they think discrimination on the basis of sexuality is OK.
by ShowsOn on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:24 pm
FB
yes, you’re correct; I should have used agnostic to describe the PM!
In this case, however, it’s important to distinguish she is speaking of her own personal beliefs, and that – please give her kudos for this – she has no intention of using those to impose her views on the rest of caucus.
Which kind of makes her very different from any other leader – Coalition or Labor – when it comes to this issue.
If we’re down to personal beliefs/attitudes/opinions, often they are simply ‘because’. Doesn’t make them any less compelling or important for the individual concerned.
I’m quite happy for people to criticise JG for being inconsistent, incoherent, whatever. I just defend her right to have an opinion, even if she can’t explain – or explain to other people’s satisfaction – why she has it.
by zoomster on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:25 pm
OMG! You really think what people post here wins or loses votes?
Are you seriously trying to blame Gillard’s horrendous poll results IN PART on what people post here?
by ShowsOn on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Zoomr
Myself and MTBW generally support Bemused and we are NOT liberals
Have you considered that the pack dog mentality which is so evident here drives many to take a more hostile line that they might otherwise. You do not (or rarely) but there are several here
Confessions
Victoria
MySay
Gary
Flipper
GG
and now to my horror OPT as well as lots more
who join in a chorus of hate when anyone disagrees with them. They rarely have a coherent argument or think about the issues but just attack the messenger.
by daretotread on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Why the complete silence from senior journos of SMH/The Age on the demolition of Fairfax by Gina? #auspol
by The Finnigans on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Apart from your sums
this is a good way to go. I thought that was going to happen because the GST is always shown separately. Got our gas bill (bottled) yesterday and yes, the price per cylinder has gone up, but the GST is nicely shown at the bottom of the account.
by BH on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:28 pm
ShowsOn
whether they do or not is a different matter!
But I understand nuance is lost on you…
by zoomster on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:28 pm
I know, Victoria. But NewsLtd journos, like Shanahan, keep talking about “cheques in the mail”, and Abbott keeps talking about “cheques in the mail” – most recently re CP compensation.
I know Centrelink stopped (1) issuing cheques and (2) sending them all out on the same day ages ago – when Howard was PM – because they were “lost in the mail” (there were cases of systematic theft, in transit/ after delivery). Both changes were in place 7+ years ago when I qualified for the OAP.
As a member of the Howard government, Abbott should be aware that “cheques in the mail” stopped ages ago, as did cheques’ all being issued on the one “pension” day. If Shanahan were paying attention, he’d also know that.
They really are “Stuck in the past Trogolytes!”
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:28 pm
dtt, you meanz them painful pavlovian doggys? yes, you are right.
by The Finnigans on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:29 pm
For tragics, the Senate will sit on Friday this week. The government has just moved a guillotine on the debate on guillotines.
by triton on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:30 pm
William, please… do you mind… I am almost getting there, but still not sure… I’m certain a little more re-enforcement is necessary re BW’s point… it seems to the naked eye to make so much sense.
BW, kindly continue.
by Gecko on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:30 pm
@ShowsOn/2123
So your now trying to not let someone else have an opinion, so how about you lot just freaking drop it.
The Enemy is LNP.
by zoidlord on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Kezza
Um!!! I think your videos support my statement. As I said Rudd can do local member stuff and fund raising stuff but Zoid was talking about LEADING.
To Lead in Qld he would need to have interviews on the Friday local 7:30 report or give major policy speeches or do interviews etc. He is not able to do these things because he would be seen as seeking leadership.
by daretotread on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Sky News is still blossfully misinforming its viewers that Gillard was slammed by G20 delegates for interfering in their economic business, and that Abbott has roundly condemned a PM who ran the four biggest sentiments telling anyone how to run their economies.
Kieran Gilbert now on… expecting more disinformation.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Anyone can express whatever opinion they like! But that doesn’t mean I can’t call that opinion smurfing nonsense.
by ShowsOn on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:33 pm
“sentiments”? “deficits”
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:33 pm
daretotread
bemused justifies many of his posts attacking others on the basis that he’s defending Rudd.
I would suggest that many of the posters you refer to would justify theirs on the basis that they’re defending Gillard.
I would even more strongly suggest that anyone who supports Labor should also support the party’s leader, and thus be on the defence rather than the attack.
I was at a party function on Sunday. My advice to people there was, if you’re worrying about the polls, stop angsting about the leadership (not much you or I or anyone on this site can do about that), and get out there and fight.
Anyway you can, anywhere you can, even if – as so many on this site presume – you don’t think it makes any difference.
“Oh, but I’m just facing up to reality” one guy said to me.
The day to do that is the day after the polls close. Until that day, fight.
If you think we’d do better under a different leader, fine. I think we already know who thinks that way. Going on and on and on about it, day after day, achieves precisely nothing.
Therefore, it makes sense to channel your energies in different directions.
by zoomster on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:35 pm
#fakeAbbott# says
The whole point of No is No, day after day, week after week, year after year.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:36 pm
victoria Posted Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 12:48 pm | Permalink
I am convinced that Latika just does not get it. Swanny needs to get the message out about the school bonus, and he is more than happy to use the hashtag cash for you to do i
Victoria some in this generation. , may be think our gen. Should not use social media.
But tbe bonus is for the 30 plus.
So its good mr swan is doing
This . But still cannot work out her job at the abc , just tweeting is it,
Perhaps we should check abc face book she may be there.
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:36 pm
THIS POST IS DESIGNED TO LOSE GILLARD 5 VOTES!
STARTING FROM
.
..
…
….
…..
……
…….
……..
………
……….
NOW!
by ShowsOn on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Gilbert now desperately trying to implicate Gillard by saying she used the word “lessons” and that the Europeans also used the word “lessons”, as in “didn’t need any lessons“, but finally having to admit the response was a reaction to Canadian criticism, not Australian.
This message does not seem to have sunk in at the news desk yet,and I don’t expect it to.
I gather that most discussion of the Gillard Snub will be about the early coverage, not the actual facts.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:38 pm
who could forget May 27th ultimatum given by Richo & Hewson.
by The Finnigans on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:38 pm
#fakeAbbott# says
No is the new Normal.
There can be No good unless I am prime minister. Anything and everything else is No.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:39 pm
DTT
The videos were woeful. Be honest.
As for being denied permission to speak publicly – I think you just made that up to explain away why Rudd goes to great lengths to avoid praising any JG govt success.
Or hadn’t you noticed?
btw, my point was that the videos themselves are proof that he hasn’t been nobbled.
It’s amazing though how insignificant and unimpressive he is once the media aren’t hanging off his every word. Sad.
by kezza2 on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:39 pm
It does fit the first rule of Australian political coverage: if Gillard does it, its wrong.
by rishane on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:39 pm
#fakeAbbott# says
‘Yes’ is No Good.
‘No’ is Yes Good.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:40 pm
Dolphin-Man,
What about all the OTHER deadlines that we have been told about? Like the polls would get better when the carbon price was announced, or when it was passed by parliament, or when the budget was delivered, or when the schoolkids bonus went out, or when interest rates fell.
This morning Swan said in the partyroom that it is July 1st that is the “game changer”.
Well what if that passes too and the polls still don’t move? What then?
by ShowsOn on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:40 pm
It’s Murdoch vs Murdoch! Which Murdoch is telling the truth?
Is it (A) Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303379204577474620938063222.html?mod=WSJASIA_hpp_MIDDLESecondNews
Or is it (B) Murdoch’s news.com.au?
http://www.news.com.au/business/prime-minister-julia-gillard-slammed-for-hypocrisy-over-europe-advice/story-e6frfm1i-1226401018476
When will the media in Australia be convinced to tell the truth?
by citizen on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Shows
If you think posting on this blog is pointless, why do you do it?
by zoomster on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:41 pm
zoomster @ 2102
Yeah, sure.
MTBW – Long term ALP member, granddaughter of ALP MHR
DTT – Long term ALP member
Spur212 – ALP supporter or member
ShowsOn – ALP supporter or member
And then there are those I disagree with but always on a civil basis like you and Puffy.
I treat known Liberals with civility in an attempt to win them across. ModLib is a lost cause but davidwh isn’t. bluegreen is somewhere in between.
I don’t count any of the Liberals as ‘supporters’.
There are certainly self-proclaimed ALP supporters on here who I would not want to be associated with. They contribute little beyond adulation of JG intermixed with statements of the obvious.
Have a look at today’s posts for example. I no sooner appear asking TLM to pass on my best wishes to Vera and I am under attack. And on it goes.
I think my main sin is that I retaliate rather than be bullied into submission. Get used to it.
by bemused on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:42 pm
#fakeAbbott# says
The Prime Minister should NOT brag about the Australian economy to a whole lot of loser european leaders because it will make Australians feel good about themselves.
And feeling good is No good.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Zoomster @2129
Hear smurfing hear
by Mick Collins on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:42 pm
To piss you off.
Clearly my plan is working.
by ShowsOn on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Nah, Shows, failing dismally.
I’m just amused.
by zoomster on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:44 pm
So will I.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
In 2016.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Zoomster – good point. My OH is an old atheist from way back but he is against SSM. All he will say is that he sees no point in wanting a marriage when a civil union is enough. Can’t believe they want to go through all the hassles of divorce, property settlements even tho I tell him that defacto couples (which they are) have the same rights with property settlements.
by BH on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:46 pm
If Gina Reinhart wants to turn Fairfax in a big dinosaur like she is. That’s OK as long as she buys it 100% and makes it a private company
by The Finnigans on Jun 19, 2012 at 1:47 pm