Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
poroti, he claimed that no one can understand the charter of independence. Therefore it’s rubbish. Sir Zelman Cowen wrote it.
by triton on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:13 pm
It’s official, this is now the Blog with the most navel gazing on the whole internet.
Every day, every hour – got to be a Rudd/ Gillard argument. Isn’t there enough else going on in politics to speak about? Really?
by Burgey on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:13 pm
@BK/2196
MORE money on Roads – Great.
by zoidlord on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Final “Claw Back” count.
1 – but a strong one!
by BK on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:14 pm
r
I am frightened shitless of 1 July.
Coal industry: gone. Whyalla: gone. Manufacturing industry: gone. Australian economy: gone. Electricity prices: astronomical. COL, astronomical. Jobs: gone. Economic growth: gone. Inflation: through the roof.
Mr Abbott has said so. Numerous times.
Mate, it is going to be a shocker.
We will be to our ankles in a plague of cobras and pythons.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Further to my 2140 pointing out that the EC President at G20 was targeting the US and Canada (Wall Street Journal report):
Yet again the ABC mimics News Ltd. It links the EU comment with Opposition comments.
The ABC article implies that Australia is in the forefront of EU criticism, which is patently untrue.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-19/europe-fires-back-at-g20/4079008?WT.svl=news1
by citizen on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Watched a great old movie last night, Billy Wilder’s Ace in the Hole, with Kirk Douglas as Chuck Tatum, an unscrupulous journalist, disgracing his profession.
On the wall of the local newspaper office where Chuck worked was the company motto “Tell the Truth”.
Dennis Shanahan, author of this morning’s report in The Australian, “Pipedown, EC Chief Tells Gillard” is a liar and a disgrace to his profession.
by susan winstanley on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Ms Burke needs a cobra strike or two to bring the House to a proper sense of decorum.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Hah. Mr Randall gets a red.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:16 pm
I am enjoying Anna Bourke as speaker.
by Ozymandias on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:16 pm
“Python squeeze”. I happened to see a youtube video today of a python swallowing an alligator. That was pretty impressive.
by triton on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Swan is a poor substitute for Gillard – ie. he’s even worse in parliament than she is.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:16 pm
You’ve been shitting yourself for weeks.
You need a Bex and a good lie down. What will be will be and it won’t be good for Abbott.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Pie Thon squeeze – what a joke they are.
by Lynchpin on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Randall’s gorn!
Now the wizened crone up on a POO.
by BK on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Who exhumed Ms Bishop the Elder?
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:17 pm
There are not enough “no”s in Australia today. From now on “know” will be respelled “no”.
by This little black duck on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Just checked my Centrelink account, and am pleased to note that on Thursday I will receive the Schoolkids Bonus.Thank You, Wayne. Thank You, Julia. Thank You, Labor Government.
by Ozymandias on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Abbott, in snake parlance, must be a Noa Constrictor.
by BK on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:18 pm
He’s a better performer than Rudd was. Rudd gave long drawn out speeches.
by Gary on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:18 pm
@TLM/2211
The job for Politicians is to their job, not their looks or anything.
It’s a pitty – the arguments come down to this.
by zoidlord on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Boerwar
It would appear that it is not in fact some sort of slur on the Dutch but a reference to the wonderful properties of Dutch spirits.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_courage
by poroti on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:18 pm
To add to his already extensive collection.
by This little black duck on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:19 pm
poroti
Unfortunately it now means the courage which is absent when you are sober, but which you find when you are half cut.
That is why I prefer ‘Australian courage’.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Swan did very well.
by Lynchpin on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:20 pm
zoomster
Posted Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 1:35 pm | Permalink
daretotread
bemused justifies many of his posts attacking others on the basis that he’s defending Rudd.
I would suggest that many of the posters you refer to would justify theirs on the basis that they’re defending Gillard.
I would even more strongly suggest that anyone who supports Labor should also support the party’s leader, and thus be on the defence rather than the attack.]
Zoomster, I do not like gratuitous personl attacks on either Rudd or Gillard. That is why I seldom agree with TP.
You know as well as I do that there is an element here who regularly attack Rudd in the most vicious personal terms.
Do not confuse acknowledging the diabolical position Gilard faces in the polls as a personal attack. It isn’t.
by bemused on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:21 pm
TLM
Well, nothing demonstrates your lack of objectivity more than this. Gillard is patently very good in parliament – confident, relaxed, sharp-witted. I’d argue that’s the only forum in which she really excels.
by triton on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Shows….
Looking a bit scruffy there, sweetie….go and have a hair cut (I’ll let you decide which one….)
by zoomster on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:21 pm
BK
Gold.
by Lynchpin on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:21 pm
#fakeSophie#
BK
Talking about our little constrictions… how’s your will coming along?
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:23 pm
(with hat tip to citizen @2140)
News Limited Deliberately Lying Again
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:24 pm
It’s snakeproof!
by BK on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Oh, and Thank You, Peter Garret.
by Ozymandias on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Kezza
Really not sure what you are on about. The Rudd videos are just usual fund raising door stops – local member stuff.
And they are NOT interviews etc – local MPs do not need permission to do that sort of stuff. I mean interviews on the MSN etc, not utubes by fete organizers. Really you are an ex media person you know how telly works.
My point was in response to Zoidlord who wanted Rudd to LEAD in Qld.
by daretotread on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Give it rest bemused arent you as sick of it as we are
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Are ‘known unknowns’ still allowed?
by CTar1 on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Rumour from today’s ‘Crikey’.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:29 pm
dan i bet your followers will increase even more
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Pyne’s first question about his shadow portfolio in over a year. And it turns out to be a dixer!
by Ozymandias on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Pyne – this is a bad time to bring in a carbon price because our literacy standards aren’t high enough??
(Hey, it’s a question on his portfolio!)
by zoomster on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Made the point way back in the @1800 this morning, that Emma A interviewed the PM at length on ABC Newsradio.
The PM gave a strong and balanced account of what she said in Mexico, and, apart from one or two narky comments from EA (ncidentally, who thought here she was some kind of balanced comment journalist? – She is not.) nothing was much was made about lectures to others.
Meanwhile on BBC World the response from an EEU member about not wanting to be lectured to was mentioned. However, there was not one reference to JG – rather to the representatives from Canada and the US.
So, what do we see are being reported here? – Some kind of “Too big for your own boots” kind of put down from the OO and other conservative media.
Of course, empty-vessel Abbott had to have his two bob’s worth on what was actually, inaccurate or bloated reporting on msm.
But, I ask, why are we surprised?
By the way, I think the PM has had so many tests, hurdles, due dates, “she’ll be gorn” and other sundry “the end is nigh” stuff – artificially erected by her straw-man (woman) opponents- and they have been consistently wrong so many times – I think she just laughs at them.
Neither July 1 or 14 are of any real import in the longer scheme of things.
Meanwhile, August to say October 2013 may well be.
I wonder at the stupidity of the so-called pundits who still expect thinking people to give them one scintilla of credibility.
Once upon a time, I used to laugh at some people who said, wtte, “I really don’t believe what I read in the papers…..” and now I can see how right they were.
In any event it does not matter in the longer term, as the print media as we know it will be “gorn” too.
by Tricot on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Combet has his sights on Abbott with this answer.
by BK on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Government has a very focussed, very energised approach to QT today. Now Superman using kryptonite against Abbott and the Yobbosition. Sadly, he will not get a run on MSM TV grabs.
Media inquiry now!
by Ozymandias on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Blimp Christensen gets a threat from Anna.
by BK on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Who nos!
by This little black duck on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:36 pm
#fakeAbbott#
The answer to every question in QT should be, ‘No!’
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:36 pm
About time that ministers were asked supplementary questions by their back bench.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Oh NOOO!
First post I read was Burgey at the top of the page.
I agree with Burgey.
For thuck sakes, STILL on KRudd.
Repeated talk on Ruddstoration is turning this site into a farce!
by Centre on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Zoomster
I think Bemused has a point. Most of us who defend Rudd NEVER attack Gillard. At least never in the sort of vicious personal way that so many do on here. I usually bite because of the blatant unfairness of it and also the sense that if you trash YOUR OWN ex PM there is b* all loyalty.
Pointing out that the polls are terrible and that the public does not like Gillard is NOT an attack. It is an electoral comment. You of all people should see that.
It is an issue because on current polling, without some major event, Labor is in for a hiding to hell in 2013. The issue is can it be avoided?
Now as I have said here, I am a pessimist. February was Labor’s last chance. They muffed it. I fear that there will be an electoral wipe our of Qld proportions. In my more despairing moments I fear the complete collapse of the Labor brand, never to recover.
Remember I am in Qld. I saw and felt the hideous date on March 23 and again in April standing in the rain all day to hand out HTV to a crowd who came again with a cricket bats. Now maybe it is not the same in Victoria but I call it as I see it.
Now Joe 6P had an interesting comment re truckie vibes which is positive. It is the ONLY positive thing I have sen for months.
by daretotread on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Just got in and QT already halfway through.
Has Tony Burke been forensically questioned on the Marine Parks? Has he been asked any questions that absolutely had to be asked today? Is he even there?
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:37 pm