Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
2211 – TLM – Gillard is the best parliamentary performer the government has, and has been since 2007.
by Burgey on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Well I am sick of your snarky comments.
I was replying to Zoomster.
by bemused on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Zero Qs from the Rabble. Just got a dixer from his own team.
by ruawake on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:40 pm
rua
That’s shameful.
I suppose they couldn’t really think of anything to ask. They really are like three-year-olds who act up and then forget why.
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Classic Burke to Mesma. “You can copy but you can’t delete!”
by BK on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Just came back into the house and saw this:
My understanding from a conversation I had with a caucus member a few weeks ago was that this is not entirely true. She said he was told he had two options:
1) sing from the government’s song sheet at all times. or
2) do no interviews.
She – and obviously many others – have had concerns that he uses media opportunities to blow his own trumpet and to fan leadership flames rather than being a good Team Labor player and focussing on selling his government’s message and attacking the failings of the opposition.
Her point was that, as a former Labor Prime Minister, he is in a unique and powerful position to help sell the government’s message. She was actually really angry that he has never done this. In fact, she argued that the past could have been put to bed in one fell swoop if he came out unambiguously from Day 1 and thrown support behind his successor for the good of the Party.
By agreeing to “sing from the government’s songsheet” he could go back to being the media’s darling AND help the government at the same time.
That he chooses not to is telling.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Well, keeping Burke in Aus is paying off for the Opposition…
by zoomster on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:43 pm
@D@R/2248
More pain to come in QLD for us 20k jobs to go, price rises upcoming:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-19/newman3a-202c000-too-many-public-servants/4079460
more cost cutting to come.
by zoidlord on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:45 pm
ru
I just got back from grocery shopping. My fruiterer had a great big sign today in front of the strawberries. QUEENSLAND STRAWBERRIES. Delicious!
Delicious indeed! I started laughing to myself and one of the staff gave me a quizzical look. Probably thought I was nuts
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:46 pm
I’ll be o/s on 1 July – I must remember to check that Australia hasn’t imploded before returning.
by CTar1 on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Anna admonishes the Blimp again.
by BK on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Pity Julia Gillard is absent. I think both sides miss her but for different reasons.
by gigi on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Zoomster @ 2256:
Not…
by Ozymandias on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:47 pm
I’m noticing a lot of toing and froing and talking to each other by Labor supporters of Kevin Rudd today in Question Time today. Jill Hall, Anthony Byrne, Janelle Saffin, all comparing notes and chatting to each other. Just sayin’.
by C@tmomma on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Has Mr O’Farrell already started robbing the elderly of New South Wales?
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:49 pm
… he’d now be in a job at the UN.
by CTar1 on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:49 pm
One thing that this Question Time confirms.
The opposition are a pack of Idiots
by Mick Collins on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:50 pm
susan winstanley 2206
I’ve seen Ace in the Hole twice. It used to show on TV as The Big Carnival. A brilliant film, with Kirk Douglas giving one of his greatest performances. ABC 2 should show it as it well illustrates the manipulation-manipulated nexus between media producers and media consumers.
Nothing much has changed over the years with the media. Citizen Kane to Citizen Murdoch ventriloquising, readers and viewers playing the dummies.
by dedalus on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Yesterday’s QT and today’s QT have a strange feel about them.
It is almost as if the Opposition has decided that all it needs to do is mark time and not take any risks.
So, QT is a matter of going through the motions, only more so.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:51 pm
An article I messed in May, probable posted before.
http://thefailedestate.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/why-journalists-fear-academics.html
Now look at that; the blogspot URL you find when you do a goodle search depends on the country. The “acceptable” url for australian:
http://thefailedestate.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/why-journalists-fear-academics.html
Interesting!
by fredn on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:52 pm
bemused@2251,
Pot meet kettle.
by C@tmomma on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Question Time today. Jill Hall, Anthony Byrne, Janelle Saffin, all comparing notes and chatting to each other. Just sayin’.
May be you should make a few phone calls:-)
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:53 pm
From yesterday’s Hansard. I think Kate Lundy had better practise her rowing.
by triton on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:53 pm
zoomster Posted Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 2:43 pm | Permalink
Well, keeping Burke in Aus is paying off for the Opposition…
Zoomster is that with a
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:54 pm
@Boerwar/2264
He’s been seen to be grabing older people over Carbon Pricing:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ofarrell-accused-of-grab-at-pensioner-carbon-rebate-20120614-20d66.html
by zoidlord on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Ms Burke just made an odd intervention as Speaker. She reminded Mr Shorten that there are microphones and there is no need to shout.
Is there a standing order against shouting?
Not that I know. If not, why pick out Mr Shorten?
If so, why pick out Mr Shorten.
It is not as if there hasn’t been many a ranted shout from both sides of the House these last few years.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:56 pm
c@tmomma. you can’t seriously be suggesting…..
by middle man on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Mysay
Tongue very firmly in cheek…
by zoomster on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:57 pm
z
The Liberals always go back to their gut instinct default position: suck up to the rich, slug the poor and root the environment.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:57 pm
C@tomma may be they are organizing a barbie like they said last year
But it did not happen
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:57 pm
For example, there has been a shouted supp and a shouted answer since Mr Shorten shouted.
Another red. who?
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Ha, now Mr Pyne is complaining about shouting!!!!
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Bronny Gawn!
by Ozymandias on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Bitchy Bronnie tossed. She is a shocking bit of work, totally disrespectful to the Chair.
by BK on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:59 pm
What did ms bishop say
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Mr Pyne shouted his complaint. What a joke.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Kate Lundy has been a rower for a long time.
by This little black duck on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Ooh didums the Goverment are bullying you are they Prissy ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:00 pm
#fakeBishop the Elder#
What is Burke doing in my job?
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Since we have had the new nice real Mr Abbott this year, the Oppies have been trying to get it across that the really weally nasty shouty people are the Gubbies.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:02 pm
What is wrong witn Priszy?
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:02 pm
#fakeBishop the Elder#
Burke doesn’t even know the page numbers in Standing Orders.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Scoot got his facts wrong and got hit for six. He tried, incoherently, to rephrase the question and got hit out of the park.
by This little black duck on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Boerwar
Apparently not. There’s nothing like that under “Disorder”. And the word “shout” or “yell” does not appear anywhere in the standing orders.
by triton on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Boerwar
Is QT strange because the PM is absent, or strange because?
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Gawd, my Member, on rats!
by Ozymandias on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Albo really taking the piss out of Abbott by slowly and loudly saying “NO” whenever leave is sought to table a document.
by BK on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Mr Abbott is using a ‘normal’ voice. No more ranting Mr Abbott. The focus groups must have told him that people despise him for his nastiness, his negativity and his ranting.
Clicks switch.
Normal voice. Complaints about Gubbies shouting. Polite Behaviour.
The New Real Mr Abbott.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Thanks, Ducky. I guess that’s why they chose it.
by triton on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Mr Abbott just got LOTO latitude, IMHO.
Ms Burke should have red carded him for yacking on when she stood up.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:05 pm