Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Boerwar
Perhaps Doane is deep throat!!!
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:27 pm
@latikambourke: PM Gillard replies – well I saw President Borosso today and if he had any problems he would have said.
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:28 pm
So now the Canberra Press Gallery has to cope with realising it is being ridiculed in Europe.
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:29 pm
TLM
Look, to be frank, I try to respect your views and read your posts dispassionately. I like differences of opinion. I don’t like people in the ALP ripping into each other. That said, I don’t think you do that. But, boy, you sure have an axe to grind. I think this comment is very, very misplaced. Could I respectfully suggest that you re-examine this quote about Albo’s integrity, because you are questioning his integrity without any real evidence. The irony is, he voted for Rudd. He was candid about it. But because of your deeply held views on this matter, and in effect your complete cynicism, you denigrate a Rudd support.
I am sorry TLM, I just don’t get it.
by Lynchpin on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:29 pm
G
Mr Shanahan did what he is paid to do which is twist anything and everything so that it looks bad for Ms Gillard.
Rule No 1: The Labor Government is not supposed to have an economy with 5% unemployment, 4% plus GDP growth, intestest rates less than 3%.
Rule No 2: If accidents do happen, then the Labor Government is not allowed to brag about the economy.
Pure bastardry, really.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Vic, the MOAR & MOARnette are simply dying to get out of the cage but the BISONs are in total control.
by The Finnigans on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:29 pm
@mrbenjaminlaw: My buddies @krissykneen and Linda Jaivin talk smut tonight on a Jennifer Byrne Presents special on erotica. ABC1, 10.05pm. Expect boob.
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:30 pm
support = supporter.
by Lynchpin on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Lynchpin, why bother. save the energy for something more positive & constructive.
by The Finnigans on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:31 pm
@TLM/2335
I think it’s a problem if Mining Interests are in the media itself.
I am surprised your backing Rineheart?
by zoidlord on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:31 pm
If you had a debate between Kelly and Andrew Robb, you’d end up with a very sad spectacle of a man reduced to blubbering incoherency.
I’ll leave it to your common sense to guess who would be who in the above scenario.
by dedalus on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:31 pm
bw
Yes I agree. It is going to be interesting to see how the Canberra Press Gallery changes tack. It is also going to be interesting to see how the MSM reacts to quotes in a Shanahan story in future.
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:31 pm
In question time
When Abbott was coping a battering from the government in their answers
hockey and turnbull kept looking at each other and seem to be talking,
is there something happening shortly in the ranks of the liberal party
by Meguire Bob on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:32 pm
g
Easy: Mr Barroso is wRONg, Ms Gillard is wRONg and Mr Swan is wRONg.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Finns, simply in the interests of trying to have a decent debate on this site.
by Lynchpin on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:34 pm
BK, because it’s Bronnie’s precious, get it?
She should be Speaker; would be speaker if Gillard had done the decent thing and not accepted the Green’s & Indies’ support!
Will be Speaker as soon as Wonderful Tony Rabbott is PM – if only muckraking amateur bloggers stop using their contacts and research skills to cast such despicable doubt of Poor Ms Jackson’s and poor, bullied Mr Ashby’s allegations. And poor Chrissy Pyne – that’s just spite because of his role in SSSOs! And our anointed future Liberal PM Mal Brough, whose future labor those bloggers and gossip mongers are trying to destroy.
How can any woman, so deprived of her Speakership, be expected to be respectful to the Deputy Usurper in HER Chair!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:34 pm
2322
On reflection she seems to come across as nervous
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:34 pm
The Sound of Mucus with the Von Crapp Family from George:
https://farm4.static.flickr.com/3125/5866386936_aeeb887662.jpg
by The Finnigans on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:37 pm
In fact, since Eden Monaro is supposed to be such a hot bell-weather seat, a good indication of the government’s re-election prospects would be that Mike Kelly, in this humble scribbler’s opinion, is a shoo-in to be returned by the local burghers.
And has everyone forgotten that the NBN is the government’s “ace in the hole” – or should I say “fibre in the home”.
Goodbye Fairfax-News Ltd paywalls/fish and chips wrappers.
Hello world wide web.
by dedalus on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:39 pm
27/2/2012 Newspoll
Would you switch your vote if Kevin Rudd became leader?
(was done at a time of 34% PV)
30% said they would remain ALP voters
4% labor voters said they would switch to another party (greens, coalition etc)
8% coalition voters said they would switch to ALP (NB and 4% of coalition voters were undecided)
How would you like a 38% PV?
What is it now?
by bluegreen on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:39 pm
guytaur
citizen @ 2140/dan gulberry @ 2230
For twitter uses, I wonder if this is something Tom Watson in the UK would find of interest?
by Laocoon on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Sky News NZ reports that “European G20 leaders joined in condemning Julia Gillard’s remarks”.
It’s been on 2GB all afternoon, mockingly,as in “You’d think she’d have someshame bragging about our ruined economy…”
Expect ABC TV News to report the story as it was this morning, then to say that it has been denied. Balance is bliss.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Oh dear what a quandary for Journos. Back Labor and the Greens to retain independence. Or back Gina and Rupert to retain their pay check.
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:41 pm
BK
Agree 100% with your views about Kate Ellis. She’s probably a good minister per se but as a QT performer, especially in a hung, vitriolic parliament she lacks oomph ……not enough “mongrel” in her.
by psyclaw on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Gee Albo is good in this MPI.
by Lynchpin on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:42 pm
dedalus
JG just does not hold grudges… she is a professional – read her biogaphy by jacqueline kent – it is very revealing… doubt same could be said about KR.
by Lyne Lady on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:43 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/business/text-of-fairfax-journalists-letter-to-rinehart-20120619-20lgc.html?rand=1340079686805
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Cat
May be they are organizing Dinner! Talk about tin foil hats. Cornering the market in Alfoil are we.
by daretotread on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Lynchpin, Thornleigh Labor Man is schizophrenic.
by Centre on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:47 pm
From Mirabella’s website:
Quote
“GOVERNMENT BULLIES INDUSTRY INTO SILENCE
19-June-2012
Industry, business and consumers have been dealt yet another blow by the Gillard government’s ACCC witch-hunt into post-July 1 price increases.
“This is an aggressive campaign against industry and individual businesses,” said Sophie Mirabella, Shadow Minister for Industry, today.
“These are businesses who have been forced by the commercial realities of bad policy to raise prices.
“The ACCC has failed to stand up for consumers and is simply just doing the Gillard government’s bidding in its feeble attempts to justify cost of living increases under the carbon tax.
“The government started with the carbon tax lie, has continued its arrogant disregard for industry concerns and is now trying to bully industry into compliant silence.
“This is just further evidence that the government has failed to explain this toxic tax to not only consumers but also to business,” Mrs Mirabella said.
“This is a government running scared that been reduced to effective censorship,” Mrs Mirabella concluded.
End quote
So any business operator visiting PB today ….. now’s your chance if you’re not doing so well …….strike while the irons hot and get some more $s under cover of the CO2 pricing.
by psyclaw on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:47 pm
@abcnewsSydney: Rinehart won’t bully us, Fairfax says http://t.co/HH3K2IOA
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Seems some misconceptions out there
@b_be_bee_reddy: @702sydney ‘GILLARD’ – referred to as a government not voted by the people democratically, only constitutionally, as like a Malcolm Fraser !
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:48 pm
lyne lady 2375
Hang on. That’s what I said. Are you saying I said the opposite, or agreeing with me?
Whatever. I agree with you.
Julia: Yay! Go girl!
by dedalus on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Lynch
Agree about Albo
Evan Albo is one of the good guys
by daretotread on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Where’s the concern for 1900 journalists & print workers losing their jobs?
I guess that’s Gina Rinehart’s fault too.
Like it or not, Ms Rinehart & Mr Palmer & Mr Forest are responsible for the mining boom that has inflated this country’s economic growth figures, the very ones that Swan has been boasting about.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:51 pm
TLM
Defending Gina now are we? All I will say is that if Gina gets her way and gets a say on editorial look to Channel Ten to see what happens .
More job cuts to look forward to as the company goes backwards.
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Daretotread: Rudd’s only useful to Albo when he needs help to get his wife reelected in her state seat.
If Albo cared about the good of the Labor Party, he’d be giving Gillard the tap on the shoulder to vacate the premises.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Heard on the 3pm news 2UE that paramedics are demonstrating in the city outside Parliament House against the HSU. They are apparently wanting to no longer be part of the Health Services Union.
by MTBW on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:54 pm
Can’t understand why some people take sides with either KR or JG – exclusively for one against the other.
We have two formidable politicians in our team – not to mention others.
I’m a fan of both. AND Mike Kelly. AND Greg Combet. AND Bill Shorten. AND Penny Wong. AND …
Anyway, point made.
Folks. Stop bickering. Disunity is death.
by dedalus on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:54 pm
Text messages? They’re automatically stored somewhere in the world (with back-ups) and can’t be deleted. If phone calls are mobile phone calls, they’re in the same category as texts, so can’t be deleted.
Landline phone calls are more secure (unless 1. the police/ security/ etc are legally listening in; 2. other companies record calls – which are legally responsible to tell the other party at the beginning of each call), although the phone numbers of both caller & recipient, as is the time, length and geological location of the calls.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:55 pm
TLM
You are a LIberal. You just want to smear good Labor performers. Otherwise you would recognise Albo’s integrity. A man who in the last leadership contest voted for one K. Rudd.
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Guytaur: Channel 10 news is arguably more pro Labor than the other commercial stations.
Paul Bongiorno & Hugh Rimington do their best to pimp Gillard every week.
Similarly, you’d hardly call Hamish McDonald right wing.
Your argument that Rinehart has turned the ten network into a pro-Liberal outfit doesn’t fly – THE BOLT REPORT is only 30 minutes per week.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:55 pm
TLM
Never heard of BHP,Rio Tinto
by Schnappi on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Don’t worry bg – it will be up to that or more before the election rolls around. If Howard could do it then so can Labor. Lots of good policy is in place now or ready to go.
The banking stuff is fantastic. You will be able to change banks with no problem or better still, tell your Bank you’ve had enough of it and will be going somewhere else. Then sit back and watch the Bank fall over itself to keep your business. Credit card changes will make people really think about the 35 years it will take to pay it off if you pay the minimum rate – you’ll see it in black and white on the statements. Great stuff to help people kick the habit of living beyond their means.
Apparently the latest ads re payments to people has been hugely successful so if Labor can replicate that with good ads to sell the policy in place they will be pulling that PV back at a rapid rate – without leadership change or even mischief making about it.
Labor pollies and the Party pulling together will do it. Again, Howard did it with fear, we’ll do it with courage.
by BH on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Excuse my ignorance, but who is speaking to the MPI now?
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:56 pm
TLM
Albo does not have that amount of power. The tap if it comes will be by Billie Boy and maybe Combet ie two big union groupings.
by daretotread on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:56 pm
TLM
Ask the Shareholders of TEN what they think of Gina.
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:57 pm
What was that headline on the abc at bottom of screen during in qt
Abour fairfax ….. newsltd
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:57 pm
Don’t let facts bang you on the arse. GDP fell by .5% due to a fall in mineral exports. You can have your opinions but not facts.
by ruawake on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:57 pm
@strom_m: About to go on ABC News 24 to talk #fairfax job cuts and editorial indepence
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 3:57 pm