Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Victoria – has that been confirmed?
by hugh moran on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:15 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2012/jun/16/andy-hall-greece
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2012/jun/16/andy-hall-greece
A week on the streets in Athens – in pictures Andy Hall has spent the week photographing people on the streets of Athens in the lead-up to the Greek elections. On the eve of polling, the head of the conservative New Democracy party said the vote was a choice between keeping the euro and returning to the drachma. Leftwing party group Syriza says it wants to stay in the euro, but opposes the terms of an international bailout. Meanwhile, the effects of the crisis can be seen all over the Greek capital
The above is a stark reminder for us,
And to keep in mind , we are very fortunate
te to havr LABOR
I would say to the lurki g liberals here , and grizzling labor people
, we have never been better off,
Let this be the thought of the week, the day the year
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:16 am
Ah, so I see Galaxy are out muddying the waters again. They do some proper polling close to elections, but in between they tend to deliver results skewed toward the LNP. I can recall this being discussed here years ago, and a number of times since. You used to be able to shear a couple of points off Morgan’s ALP figures back when the ALP had a lead in the polls (though he seems to have gone a bit haywire lately). You can shear a couple off Galaxy’s LNP figures quite confidently.
The fact that Galaxy are even conducting a poll right now should give heart to the ALP – they get called on when the LNP need some good news. Think of them as Newspoll’s feral younger brother.
by Aguirre on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:16 am
Most people like their strawberries with cream. The Tories seem to like theirs with what? Scandal and concocted political intrigue?
by smithe on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:20 am
victoria:
Have any dates of these people being in Qld been released/discussed?
It shouldn’t be too hard to ascertain whether they were all up there at the same time: Hockey, Rudd, Brough, Ashby(?), Pyne(?).
by confessions on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:21 am
I think those quotes came from his Bolt Report appearance. They’re accurate, from what I saw of the show (somebody posted a clip yesterday). Brough just went on about how incredible and amazing everything was.
Best part of the clip was Bolt verballing KK. He asked her about Roxon’s comments – WTTE “weren’t they completely inappropriate given the case is running?” She explained that Roxon was just summarising facts. He replied with more “But don’t you think it was completely out of line?” She said no and explained it all for him again. He closed with WTTE, “Yes, totally inappropriate given the case is in the courts.”
by Aguirre on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:23 am
hugh moran/confessions
Of course, Not been confirmed in the msm. The msm are doing their best to pretend it is not even hapoening!
Ru has heard it through his connections. Remember ru was telling us re Slipper resigning from the LNP a few months before it actually occurred.
Just like we knew Brough was involved from the get go, this scenario may turn out to be on the money. For now, we speculate.
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:26 am
henry, you meanz like this?
i will continue to “embarrassment” the painful doggy No: 1 as long as he keeps on spewing his hatred on PM Gillard.
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:27 am
Aguirre
You are tougher than me. I would of switched off at the sight of Bolt
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:28 am
Well if Bolt is of that opinion, why is he providing Brough with a bully-pulpit to deny the allegations and why, for that matter, is he even airing the matter on his show?
by smithe on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:28 am
The plot thicken, was it a love-in at QLD Strawberry farm? Or a shoot out at OK Corral with Wyatt Earp #auspol
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:28 am
The finns
The pavlovian dogs are hijacking this site. Dont encourage their return!
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:28 am
Goof Morning
@farrm51: For more than 20 years the Nats have been trying to beat TWindsor with their own people. No longer. The Punch http://t.co/z3UfPJNC
Windosr was on AM this morning. He said the problem with the carbon price is the selling of it. he said that Labor seemed to almost apologise for it. That he himself was proud of it and so should Labor people be as well.
I think Windsor is on the money yet again here. More Labor politicians need to start taking notes from Combet.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:29 am
The finns
If Wyatt Earp is found to have been involved, what next for his future prospects?
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:29 am
Confessions:
Not really. Think of them as dots that haven’t been connected. It may not be possible to connect them. I know Hockey was in the area around that time, and he met with Rudd for a coffee, but there’s nothing to link either of them to Brough or Ashby. I think most of the LNP ‘operatives’ being hinted at are local politicians.
With an issue like this, it’s best to stick to what you know and to question everything else. Pyne’s meetings with Ashby in Canberra and Brough’s meetings with Ashby on the Sunshine Coast are the interesting ones, not only because they’re both verifiable but also because they involve initial denials from the interested parties. The rest is conjecture.
by Aguirre on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:30 am
oops Good Morning.
Mind you politics being what it is maybe the typos is an apt description.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:30 am
Thats right Victoria.
They are easy to scroll past. Nothing will change them.
by dave on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:32 am
#Leadershits stuff again by Galaxy poll. Who would have think that, to feed the #MSMhacks & #TheirABC for the Newspoll weekend #auspol
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:32 am
Gorgeous Dunny #213 and other Bludgers.
I’ve been fascinated by Prof Iain Stewart’s very recent (1 st ep UK 13 Feb 2012) How to grow a planet (ABC, ep 2 & 3 still available – also on Youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VNt0mwStZI) and the impact of plant organisms on the planetary life-sustaining gas layers. Despite primary schooling’s compulsory Botany (& insects etc) and Botany Book compilation (inc O2/CO2 plant-animal relationship), dendrochronology & pollenology’s importance to archeology, I’d never been overly interested in other plant sciences.
Though one thing he mentioned in an earlier episode that I seem to recall has been very recently superceded, the series reflects cutting-edge research and dating technology: the final episode (on grasses) features the settlement which pushed the date of grains’ introduction to human diet, cultivation and Neolithic Revolution’s beginning 2,000 years to c12,000 years ago.
Most interesting to the climate debate, though, is a rigorous and rigorously supported examination of climate changing evens, effects of plants on planetary life-sustaining gas layers, inc the near catastrophic results of the development of marine life which absorbed so much CO2. Whilst it challenges much of what greenies and some environmentalists claim – specially in the lead-up to and following Copenhagen – it heightens awareness of the interdependence of plants, animal (inc us) and our life-sustaining gas layer.
Cleaning up man-made atmospheric carbon pollution – matching the 1970s onwards clean up of its manmade sulphur pollution – is but one component of stabilising planetary gas layers at levels most conducive of sustained life on Earth, and the easiest to do – given how effectively SO2 levels were reduced to near-natural levels.
Addressing massive old-growth tree clearances, especially in the critical tropical & subtropical belts, is a very much harder task; yet it is far more critical task. Even if we get CO2 levels back to near-natural levels, given the essential role trees play in the composition of our planetary gas layers, we might still find ourselves facing another near-catastrophic change in those gas layers.
Old-growth forest clearing is a far greater threat that rising sea levels – England’s been watching huge sections of its coastline disappear since C12 AD, and coping with it. Coping with O2 depletion will, at best, be much harder.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:33 am
Aguiree
Roxon and Albo both confirmed they have information that some Qld LNP members are involved. We just dont know who.
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:33 am
Right on Smithy – thats why they are squealing.
by dave on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:34 am
With 98.1% of votes counted, it seems the most likely Greek Coalition will have a narrow majority of 162 seats (151 seats needed). But that’s about as far as it can get in these times.
If they can hold that majority for the whole term, it would be quite an achievement. However, if the bailout solution fails for Greece, I expect that the coalition will fall and there would be an early election.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:34 am
Vic, i am glad i missed them last night. them pavlovian doggys were particularly painful, vindictive and vengeful
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:35 am
dave
Agreed, but it does put one off. I love catching up with most posters here, but the same few hijack the site, and make it unreadable.
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:35 am
Bolt’s a little more careful than that. From what I saw, Brough gets to go on about his own innocence because he says he hasn’t been delivered a subpoena (yet – he says). So no court involvement there. That leads to a tut-tut session over Roxon for commenting on matters before the court. There’s a logic in there.
by Aguirre on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:35 am
Morning All
Those Galaxy poll questions are terrible – what’s wrong with simple A vs B questions???
Who will be the first to take up Victoria’s links to the strawberry farm and put all the Ashby vs Slipper stuff to music??? The choice would be obvious
Marriage equality committee reports back to parliament today, will be interesting to see what they come back with. Perritt was good on RN this morning – “greatest good for the greatest number” and what “harm is being done to those on the other side” (or the like) – very little real harm I’d suggest.
Finally, looks like Greece got scared on the dramatic option and decided to try and battle through with austerity – good luck to them
by womble on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:36 am
The finns
I was offline for a while last night, but thought i would check in before calling it a night. What a pathetic display. Could not get out of there quick enough. Good on those who stuck it out, but them pavlovian dogs are bitter beyond repair.
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:37 am
The Punch http://t.co/z3UfPJNC
So now they’ve roped-in Ricrahd torbay, an Independent MP who had previously vowed to destroy them, to do the job.
What happened? Did they run out of RM Williams’ clad squatters sons to put-up against Windsor?
And as for Torbay, what’s the story with that Lew Costello hair of his? It looks like it’s made out of plastic (a-la Bob Downe).
I reckon in a strong wind Torbay’s political allegiances would show more signs of movement than his hair does.
by smithe on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:38 am
Its exactly why they do it. The more shrill they get the more their worst fears are shown.
by dave on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:39 am
Victoria
You should consider writing a book.’, now yoyr would beeee a best sellar
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strawberry_Fields_Forever
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:40 am
More from the Land of the Free.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101735103
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:40 am
Well, that’s right. We don’t know who. It’s all speculation at our end. I expect more information, but I don’t know what it will be. My suspicion is that strawberry farms and the likes of Hockey will have nothing to do with it. The questions of who is funding Ashby’s court case, and exactly who gave him what advice and why – they’re the big ones. Canberra politicians would have been careful to keep one or two steps away from that stuff, you’d think.
Abbott might – might – get nailed on his “no specific knowledge” if it can be ascertained what knowledge he did have. It’s a pity nobody’s likely to ask him that question. It’s probably one big reason why he won’t go anywhere near an interview right now.
by Aguirre on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:42 am
So another bad day for Abbott today. His team has to front up and be seen avoiding questions on Ashby and “hero” Jackson. They will also have had to work out what to attack the Government on. Taxes, Boats, environment.
My money is on environment.
Of course they are onto a loser with that one too.
Should be fun.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:42 am
e Posted Monday, June 18, 2012 at 8:39 am | Permalink
victoria Posted Monday, June 18, 2012 at 8:35 am | Permalink
Agreed, but it does put one off. I love catching up with most posters here, but the same few hijack the site, and make it unreadable.
Its exactly why they do it. The more shrill they get the more their worst fears are shown. dave posted
Well said dave,
I consul my self by sayi g to my self is that all they have.
Theres a song in there to o
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:43 am
Aguirre:
I am hopeful to see a direct link between Ashby and Abbott’s office because Abbott said the first he’d heard of the allegations was in the newspapers.
The more senior coalition frontbenchers looped in makes it more plausible IMO that Abbott’s office knew about Ashby’s claims before they went public.
by confessions on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:43 am
Anybody can be a journalist – http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77492.html – that’s why #MSMhacks are really piss-off & we can publish too – http://www.thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:43 am
victoria:
The graveyard shift is the most off-putting because it’s when all the angry, aggressive folk come out.
by confessions on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:45 am
those looking for a date at the strawberry farm – pretty sure they have an annual fundraiser for Canteen – i’d suggest it would be around then
this is the 2010 one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-uShjh3q5U
note who posted the clip
haven’t got time to find the date for this year sorry
great cause btw
by womble on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:47 am
Fess, you better watch it. Them painful pavlovian doggys & Greenies (and equally pavlovian) are ganging up on you.
Who would have thunk that. But we will fight them.
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:48 am
Full article -
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Greek-election-European-crisis-eurozone-stock-mark-pd20120618-VCSU3?OpenDocument&src=sph
by dave on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:49 am
Yay, yay, yay, PM Gillard is telling the world about Australia’s BISONs – http://www.thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/ – at G20 #auspol
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:49 am
I wonder what the reaction here will be next week if Newspoll shows a reverse in fortunes for Labor & the ranga, as her supporters have been recently clinging on to rogue Newspolls as proof that she’ll win the next election.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:51 am
oh shit, another painful doggy has to come & spoil the peaceful morning shift
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:53 am
my say
I am not good with words, so a book would be very hard for me to write. Having said that, Uhlmann and Lewis have sent their book to the printers. Saw the blurb last night. What rubbish!
by victoria on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:53 am
Given what we know of the Ashby Slipper saga and Strawberry Farms connection it would be easy to write a fictional book about it.
Start with the fictional premise that Ashby got the job at the Farm to help a young lad keep his sexuality secret so that it would not be an issue when he ran for Parliament.
The usual disclaimer any similarity with real people living or dead is purely coincidental.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:54 am
My oh just told me galaxy pol is in our newsltd paper
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:54 am
thornleigh labor man
if newspoll has questions comparing the government policies with the alternative that would likely to happen
labor would be on top
But alas newspoll will be base on what the media agenda is pro coalition and regime change
by Meguire Bob on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:56 am
I notice the Libs and Nats are getting their preselections done early, which is a good think IMO. Why is the ALP leaving it so late? Surely it is better to start now and get the candidates out there working their local areas. I don’t understand it and it is very frustrating.
by Lynchpin on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:57 am
William,
What is your professional opinion of this poll by Galaxy. Are the flaws we bludgers seeing here real and is there a history of bias in the Galaxy poll towards the LNP as the Essential is supposed to have towards the LNP?
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:58 am
@joeobrien24: PM Julia Gillard live on #abcnews24 .. from G20 Summit in Mexico
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 8:59 am