Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Well, I agree with your first point but not the second.
Just because Howard acted like a state police minister doesn’t mean others have to follow.
Many on here have had a go about Tony Abbott for not going on Q&A. But where is the rule that says Opposition Leaders or even P.M.’s MUST go on Q&A?
Real leaders define the office the way they choose so as to acheive the best advantage for what they are trying to do. There is no rule book of what a PM should or shouldn’t do with regards media relations.
by ShowsOn on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:20 pm
Didn’t Savva run that same article about Swan not recontesting a few months ago?
by shellbell on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:23 pm
Costello was within two weeks of running out of currency reserves in February 2002, if he didn’t scrape through by luck interest rates would have doubled overnight.
I am sure he had everything crossed, was on his knees praying and begging for forgiveness. This was how close he came to bringing down the Howard Govt all by himself.
by ruawake on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:24 pm
cannot recall abbott wearing glasses,and looks like dyed hair
by Schnappi on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:24 pm
Lynchpin @ 2157
Interesting.
What if he were to be subjected to bullying by Fairfax management and laid a complaint with FWA?
What if a whole lot of his colleagues did the same?
Any lawyers here care to comment?
by bemused on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:24 pm
shellbell
What?! Is Savva a Green now. Recycling per excellence.
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:24 pm
dedalus, way back – yes, Ace in the Hole should be the saturday night feature on ABC2, esp given the current media turnoil.
In fact, an entire Billy Wilder festival would suit me fine, along with Sunset Boulevard, another withering examination of the fourth estate.
It looks like today’s disgraceful episode in bent reporting from Dennis Shanahan is making waves (on top of Alexandra Kirk’s stupid Dirt Unit story on the ABC last Thursday) and not all of them bad for the government.
Gillard fights back with a smile on her face and the back-pedalling begins (for anyone still listening). Bernard Keane’s surgical strike was spot on: News Ltd Verbals European leader in order to attack the PM, and Grog’s analysis of grossly partisan and bone lazy media reporting during the day was illuminating as usual.
by susan winstanley on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:25 pm
Savva admitted to publishing untruths regarding Mick Young, why should she change her style many years later?
by ruawake on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:27 pm
i put it in 140 chars, Groggy puts in 14000 http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/ but the message is still the same. Appalling treatment of PM Gillard at G20
by The Finnigans on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Burgey, the media world has changed since Kaeting left office in 1996. The internet and 24 hour news TV channels require a rapacious cycle of news turnover.
And it wasn’t just Howard who responded to a changed world – Rudd was not forced into it by Howard, he would have been a media tart anyway – and Bob Carr as NSW premier was always one for the 20 second sound byte.
Face it, the world has changed.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:29 pm
I think Fairfax should sack its entire editorial staff, same goes for News Ltd and The ABC.
Then they should be made to sit a truth in publishing test. All those who have been shown to have told a blatant porkie get evicted. Maybe a new reality media show. Master-Fibber?
The ones left get to carry on being proper journalists.
by ruawake on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:31 pm
Savva said same thing about Swan on 24 April
by shellbell on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:32 pm
Dont miss Andrew Bolt.
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:33 pm
@BBCBreaking: UK #inflation rate falls to 2.8%, from 3%, official figures show http://t.co/uwQB8A5T
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:34 pm
All this stuff about Peter Costello is sounding like “Imagine how much it would be worth if I’d bought that house in 1980″ or “if I hadn’t sold that house” and it goes on. It is all about crying over spilt milk – and the posts above don’t blame the RBA who recommended the various sales but only the guy who signed it off.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:36 pm
Well, SBS ran with the ‘Gillard chastised’ line. Headlines very misleading, story slightly less misleading, and rounded out with a grab of Abbott having a swing at Gillard for good measure.
If the general media attitude to Gillard was a little more positive, and our economic strength recognised, that misreportage might have worked in her favour. After all, how could a grab-bag of basket case countries dare tell us where to get off?
At least they finished with someone complimenting her dress-sense. Mustn’t forget she’s a lady first, a PM second, eh?
by Aguirre on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:38 pm
Why is he about to do something sensible?
by ruawake on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:40 pm
bbp
The Treasurer is always only as good as the Department, IMO. Funny how the politician is supposed to be all-seeing, all-knowing.
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:42 pm
davidwh @ 2562
Comrade, you are back sliding!
Costello was a dunce as treasurer. What genuine achievements can he claim credit for?
by bemused on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Ru – very good article by Eric Beecher, Grand Poohba of Crikey, Business Spectator & Kohler’s, Eureka Report – so he got a good track record with profitable “New” Media
Full article -
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/fairfax-roger-corbett-digital-media-australian-new-pd20120619-VE64M?OpenDocument&src=sph&src=rot
by dave on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:44 pm
Taking on the position of Gina’s editor of truth in the AGE.
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:44 pm
Nice try BBS. Costello controlled the RBA when the gold was sold, he ignored their screams when they told him to stop the currency swaps.
The gold sales also depressed the world gold price and meant gold mines in Australia closed and sacked workers – for what reason?
by ruawake on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:44 pm
blackburnpseph
Costello was the boss the buck stopped at his desk. The decision was, even then, criticised in W.A. because of what it could (and did) do to the gold and gold exploration industry in W.A. . Back in pre iron ore frenzy days they were the industries whose health determined the health of Western Australia.
by poroti on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:45 pm
You choose:
Gina’s:
Vogon’s:
by This little black duck on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:45 pm
For the benefit of the ABC, SBS, NewsCorpse, Ch 7, Sky, etc here is a quotation from my Gravatar which is quite pertinent given their performance today.
“There is no such thing as a fact if it’s only what somebody reported.”
by BK on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:47 pm
dave
Thanks for that.
So how is Gina as board member going to be helpful? Seems to me her expertise is in digging things up and selling them.
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:47 pm
by Dee on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:49 pm
I know I’ve got mine. At least I will when News, Fairfax and the free to air vomit disappears in the next few years. The sooner we get rid of these bloated, lying turkeys, the better.
by Roy Orbison on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:49 pm
rua @ 2620
Ah, now I understand. Costello just thought he knew everything
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Did anyone post this yesterday. An interesting take by Corinne Grant about SSM issue
http://thehoopla.com.au/julia-me/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=June+18+The+Hoopla&utm_content=June+18+The+Hoopla+CID_8f326ec69781b5820efefbd4cf7c5f35&utm_source=Email+marketing+software&utm_term=Read+Now
by BH on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:51 pm
TLBD
I thought Gina was a Vogon ? In any case her poetry would give Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings a run for her money.
by poroti on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:51 pm
And the number is;
The Masked Crusader@themaskedcrus
Just rang ABC & told ‘em to get their bloody act together. Using News Ltd as source material is an affront. Ring them & complain.1800627854.
by Schnappi on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Cheer up, Lizzie. Tomorrow morning, there will be only 5 Sitting days left until 1 July’s Implementation Day; moreover every day, revelations re Ashby’s and HSU/ Kathy Jackson’s apparent ‘stitch ups’ of Slipper and Thomson seem to get more scurrilous.
To cheer you further, today social media – blogs, twitter, media discussions – scathingly outed Dennis Shanahan as a blatant and despicable liar for deliberately “creating” a scathing headline and article about PM Gillard, in which he lied about her getting a “rebuff” (which simply never happened) by a EuroZone leader who, as videos of the incident showed, did not mention her, or even vaguely hint at anything about her.
It was the most concentrated and comprehensive attack by Australian journalists on another (supposedly senior) Australian journalist that I remember seeing in a long lifetime. It sure trumped the 2007 thrashing he got from the psephologist bloggers (we all know so well) over his misinterpretation of polls and failure to grasp MoE!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:53 pm
So he should. The article below makes very clear what went on -
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/g-20-summit-in-flames-already-as-ec.html
by dave on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Aren’t you overlooking the minor fact that “the guy who signed it off” was the same “guy” who has spent the last sixteen years skiting about “his” budgets and “his” savings and “his” surpluses? If he wants the horse’s head, he can take the horse’s arse.
It’s a pity we don’t see more of this sort of reporting but I guess we will have to wait until the so-called investigative reporters, that are currently being put to shame by the “amateurs” at Independen tAustralia, come out from hiding behind their lounges and actually do some work. Which will only happen when their man Tone is safely in the Lodge and will release the sins of Swan. Just the usual bias and gutlessness.
by Roy Orbison on Jun 19, 2012 at 6:56 pm
OzPol T
Thanks for the spine stiffening. We fight on
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:00 pm
grantplant Posted Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 5:53 pm | Permalink
Geoff Gallop has a brilliant piece up on The Conversation about the extreme right in
My goodness this is scary stuff,
But of course liberals will just brush it aside
My
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Shocking story just on ABC News 24. An post-grad student from India held in immigration detention for 18 months for breaching his study visa.
His crime? He worked ONE shift of a few hours.
What a total over reaction!
by ShowsOn on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:08 pm
lizzie
As the PM is Welsh perhaps it is appropriate to quote a sheepens All Black captain who said of the Welsh “You never beat Wales, you just get more points.” . Be Welsh
by poroti on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Could you please provide a link Mysay.
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:10 pm
esday, June 19, 2012 at 6:53 pm | Permalink
I thought I was depressed before. Somehow Gina has made everything worse, except that
Oz poll your piece
to lizzie is there a link which discusses this so i can pass it on
Problem is not enough people here what really hapoened.
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Still looking rummel
The site is called the conversation
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Which piece would you like, my say?
Tony Wright about Mesma?
Or details of what Gina is up to?
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:16 pm
ABC TV news report in Qld on the G20 actually quite accurate. Simkin even turned down the usual verbals smirk. Firestorm on twitter during the day must have forced them to do some proper reporting.
by ajm on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Doesn’t surprise me alas. I don’t know how 9 reported it but 10 is also running with similar headlines, The Project’s summary being ‘Prime Minister Gillard criticised by European leaders and Tony Abbott for lecturing Europe…” Also kind of them to provide no context whatsoever about our economic situation as compared to said European countries. People will say ‘oh, the media will distort any Labor PM and its her fault anyway’, but Gillard really gets consistently awful treatment. Though as I’ve said before, in a way I’d be more concerned if they didn’t hate her.
by rishane on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:18 pm
http://theconversation.edu.au/gina-rinehart-fairfax-and-the-war-politics-of-the-australian-right-7739
For u rummel
But your so rusted o to abbotts lot . I doubt you will get it
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:19 pm
Actually, we can thank him and his media ownership changes which cleared the way for News Corp to gain 70 per cent Australian newspaper market via his allowance of the takeover of the Herald and Weekly Times.
Just saying.
by joe2 on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:21 pm
Cheer up, Lizzie. Tomorrow morning, there will be only 5 Sitting days left until 1 July’s Implementation Day; moreover every day, revelations re Ashby’s and HSU/ Kathy Jackson’s apparent ‘stitch ups’ of Slipper and Thomson seem to get more scurrilous.
Well lizzie after reading thst the abc , behaved themselves re twitter
There is hope.
May be i should join but i think .i would say something i should not and worry
But am thinking now how powerful twitter has become.
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:23 pm
He had a very very different version on ABC TV News at Noon today in which he totally mis-reported what went on, together with his usual sneering.
by dave on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:25 pm
It was he who ran with Gillard “lecturing”, the night before, in lockstep with Newslimited.
Maybe he felt sprung and guilty.
by joe2 on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:25 pm