Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
rishane Posted Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 7:18 pm | Permalink
Well, SBS ran with the ‘Gillard chastised’ line. Headlines very misleading, story slightly less misleading, and rounded out with a grab of Abbott having a swing at Gillard for good measure.
Is sbs on twitter.
They should be shamed
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:25 pm
@Captainturtle: The Opposition claimed TV Host @annabelcrabb lost control after guest @kerrychika was “drunk on air”. Ms Crabb denied allegations. #MSMtweet
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:25 pm
I agree with this.
@AdamBandt: Easy to talk big about the threat to #fairfax posed by Gina Rinehart. But why don’t we do something about it? http://t.co/cjkbaUf9
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:28 pm
Mysay
halfway through and thought i put the above snippet up. Team Labor would love to neuter the ABC at the moment too. Which i have found very short sighted given the coming Liberal Government.
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:28 pm
Wish I could get drunk on air. It would be far less expensive.
by joe2 on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:29 pm
my say
I registered under an assumed name (as many do) and just enjoy following (and copying on to PB).
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:29 pm
The one that corrects the newltd story about the pm pls if tbere is one.
Lizzie
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:29 pm
The Libs have been sending out letters begging for money to maintain the rage against the Carbon Price.
http://twitpic.com/9y1mv1
by sprocket_ on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:31 pm
So rummel is that all u read , that worried you
Poor you and your family
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Rummell
Cafeful of your Hubris, you’re going to look as idiotic as Tony Abbott when Labor is returned with a greater majority at the next election
by Mick Collins on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:32 pm
sprocket
Probably after people willing to put up with the fines and maybe jail terms imposed for misleading and deceptive behaviour in claiming costs for a Carbon “Tax” that does not exist.
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:34 pm
I posted earlier today that another part of the Murdoch empire, the Wall Street Journal, ran a story saying the EU criticism was aimed at US and Canada, with no mention of Australia.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303379204577474620938063222.html?mod=WSJASIA_hpp_MIDDLEThirdNews
So which Murdoch employee was lying? The WSJ hack or the Oz hack?
Before the Internet it would have been difficult to check the opposite stories in Murdoch’s US and Australian publications. Now it is easy and, as Grog says, we can go to the original source of the comments by the EU representative.
by citizen on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:35 pm
All of the Fairfax talk is about newspapers. Does F’fax have any interests in radio or TV?
If Little Miss Gina is buying into F’Fax would this include radio and TV if applicable?
by RNM1953 on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Easy to talk big about doing something about the threat to #fairfax posed by Gina Rinehart. But she is doing nothing wrong.
Sorry Bandt stop playing silly buggers.
by ruawake on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Shocking story on ABC News 24. A post-grad student from India held in immigration detention for 18 months for breaching his study visa.
His crime? He worked ONE shift of a few hours.
What a total over reaction!
by ShowsOn on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:37 pm
my say
No, it’s mostly people on twitter saying it’s wrong. Someone else may have a better link.
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Should the government provide financial support to newspapers similar to that received by the manufacturing industry?
Yes
No
Don’t know
well now a poll , ,
Disclaimer: These polls are not scientific and reflect the opinion only of visitors who have chosen to participate.
Should the government provide financial support to newspapers similar to that received by the manufacturing industry?
Yes
No
Don’t know
Disclaimer: These polls are not scientific and reflect the opinion only of visitors who have chosen to participate.
19%
Should the government provide financial support to newspapers similar to that received by the manufacturing industry?
Yes
No
Don’t know
Disclaimer: These polls are not scientific and reflect the opinion only of visitors who have chosen to participate.
19%
75%
6%
75%
6%
19%
75%
6%
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:39 pm
@AlexGreenwich: Great to hear Mark Dreyfus, Richard Marles, and Kevin Rudd are additions to the #MarriageEquality “yes” column according to constituents
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Sso sorry about the above to much tapping on paste
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:40 pm
“If Little Miss Gina is buying into F’Fax would this include radio and TV if applicable?”
I imagine that would include Sydney’s 2UE, the junior hate radio station and whatever it’s interstate stablemates are. One thing is for sure – 2UE will be moving into big league hate. The contest between the spittle covered microphones will be immense.
by Roy Orbison on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Hello My say
Here a few on Shanahan’s lying attack on Julia Gillard today:
* Grog’s Gamut @ http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/fairfax-and-g20-visits-what-do-we-need.html
* Crikey @ http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/fairfax-and-g20-visits-what-do-we-need.html
* The Daily Derp http://thedailyderp.net/2012/06/19/news-limitd-deliberately-lying-again/
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:41 pm
I am so so hoping that with all the investigations into media in the UK that James and Rupert Murdoch end up going to prison. No more graphic way to show the world they are not and proper people to own media.
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Mysay.
When Keven 07 was elected we Libs slipped into a dark dark place. Kev had our measure and despatch lib attacks and had high public support. There was no light at the tunnel for years, no option to look to as each Op leader was tarnished and dispatch.
Then everything changed. We could see the light…. the same light that caused the following.
In Gillard i trust to lead Labor to the next election. She was and still is the Liberal light of hope on the Hill….
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:45 pm
Guess what tne , conversation site on the
7.30 report
Great break through
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:46 pm
mick
I will take that risk at this point in time.
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Thank you oz poll
Will send on
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:48 pm
How do you like your egg, Rummell ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:52 pm
I love Labor MP’s giving advice on how not to damage a brand.
http://theconversation.edu.au/mps-warn-rinehart-against-editorial-meddling-at-fairfax-7771
Gina could just call a special general meeting to call a vote on the leadership and take over as PM……. sorry CEO of the company. Threat to democracy lol……..
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:53 pm
Abbott and other worthless libs ,going to waste two weeks of taxpayers money on the carbon price he can do nothing about,Stop The Waste abbott.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/abbott-plans-carbon-tax-tour-20120619-20lxt.html
by Schnappi on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:53 pm
Fertilized at the moment.
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:54 pm
err rummell, Turnbull was saying simmilar things yesterday to what Conroys been saying.
by Mick Collins on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Yes but Swan has sucked on to much helium again and is bouncing off every wall looking like a goose today. I hear gossip he is not going to run at the next election.
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 7:58 pm
lizzie @2625
Wrong.
Her expertise is getting cheap labour to dig things up so she can sell them.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:00 pm
Re the currency swaps the reason the Australian government entered into the contracts in the first place was not to make trading profits or losses on the contracts but to hedge cash flows in foreign currencies. It’s not the role of governments to speculate in risky hedge trading. When profits or losses were made on the swaps was a matter of timing due to currency fluctuations and are largely meaningless without understanding the reasons they were taken out and the cash flows they were taken out to protect.
The gold sales were discussed some time back on PB and was a policy decision of the Reserve Bank taken at the time central banks globally were divesting holdings of gold.
Costello was by far a better treasurer than the lightweight we have suffered since 2007.
by davidwh on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:01 pm
What ? That ‘gossip’ that Nikki Sava re-heated from april 24 th ?
Lets face it, given the debacle that Shanahan started today with his fake story on the G20, anything that comes out of the OO is about as believeable as the Tooth Fairy.
by Mick Collins on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:02 pm
davidwh @ 2683
There comes a time comrade when I have to call your bullshit for what it is. BULLSHIT!!!
by bemused on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:04 pm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/jun/18/cameron-silences-ministers-leveson-inquiry
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jun/18/met-phone-hacking-cps
by guytaur on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:05 pm
daretotread @2071
Posted Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 12:56 pm | Permalink
Zoid
What do you mean Rudd build up Qld? He is out and about in Qld. What more can he do? I assume that his electorate office will be doing extra duty to help branches now that there are so few state MPs, but what more can he do?
Go my copy of the Rudd Report in the letterbox yesterday, talking up Labor achievements, talking to yr 8 students who are studing the Apology as part of their social scienes course, the NDIS, etc. generally getting the word out.
by Augustus on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:06 pm
my say @2656
News Limited Deliberately Lying Again
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:08 pm
Got to like how the fake Shanahan story still frames this article: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-19/gillard-plays-down-barroso-comments/4079930
by rishane on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:09 pm
Oops. See OPT got there first.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:09 pm
davidwh
wRONg. Firstly the buck stopped at Costello’s desk. He da boss ,he had the final call. Secondly he was the one that shouted fire in the theatre and started the rush for the exits.
http://www.australian-gold.com/decline.html
by poroti on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:09 pm
Obama geting a slap from a lefty. Yes we can………..
”Most significantly, the US delegation demands the removal of many of the foundations agreed by a Republican president in Rio in 1992. In particular, it has set out to purge all mention of the core principle of that Earth summit: common but differentiated responsibilities. This means that while all countries should strive to protect the world’s resources, those with the most money and who have done the most damage should play a greater part.
This is the government, remember, not of George W Bush but of Barack Obama. The paranoid, petty, unilateralist sabotage of international agreements continues uninterrupted. To see Obama backtracking on the commitments made by Bush the elder 20 years ago is to see the extent to which a tiny group of plutocrats has asserted its grip on policy”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/18/rio-2012-earth-summit-protect-elites
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:10 pm
bemused
Thanks for saving the rest of us the trouble!
by ajm on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:10 pm
I can take it bemused when I’m confident I’m right. Anyway PB is not short on BS so if you are right then I’m in good company. Hey but I know I’m not
by davidwh on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:11 pm
So now we have kr opp. To the pm
Do we
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Dan G
I’m happy to stand corrected. I was thinking in a management sense, but you’ve got down and dirty with her
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Is that what the chatter was about to day
More worries
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:14 pm
This will be interesting, no?
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Dan out to 5 other and ask them to pass on
Twitter is having an effect on the abc any way,
Does sbs twitter they should be told ,
You lot are soldier s of cyber space
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 8:17 pm