Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Mick Collins
Yeah, about 20 secs here too.
And just had a couple of after shocks.
Lots of people out in the street
checking everyone’s okay
laughing madly
shelves, dishes crashing down.
just our chopping boards and knives and a radio went tumbling
managed to save the computer screen as it came crashing towards me.
Phew!!
by kezza2 on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:09 pm
Boerwar
Been waiting for you to re-appear. Read a lot of stuff earlier today about Doane and whether she was going to blab. Can you tell me what incentive there is for her to do so? What can she possibly gain?
by Darn on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:09 pm
I’m near Warburton. Sitting upstairs and felt very nervous.
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:09 pm
poroti,
“Mind you not as great as the Sheepen’s Ernest Rutherford ”
He was a student of Rutherford’s good enough, his friend whom I worked with was a student of Mawson’s.
I used to sit a talk with Oliphant’s old technicians facinating.
by Augustus on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:09 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
A Bludger (Fess) just said it was them BISONs thundering through Victoria. Yay, yay, yay
by The Finnigans on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:09 pm
Poroti, that sheepen only knew how to shag them atoms
by The Finnigans on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:10 pm
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/australia/gshap.php
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:10 pm
The finns
We have experienced a few tremors in the past couple of years here in Victoria, but this actually felt like a wave. Very different to the others. As darn said, hope that is the last of it. Very unsettling!!
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:10 pm
confessions @2766,
Saw that today re Turnbull.
Seems to be a turnaround but brushed aside by the MSM. I think others will speak out as well.
If labor had been directed to vote a particular way can you Imagine what the MSM would make of any statement by a labor MP expressing even the smallest amount of opinion different to the caucus directive ? Especially if the statement was made by a certain individual or individuals.
Now, with a conscience vote caucus members can say what they like and express their view freely on this issue. Really takes the lid off the pressure cooker.
Good forward thinking by the PM to allow a conscience vote.
by Doyley on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:11 pm
Sounds like the epicentre might have been in Gippsland.
by Darn on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:11 pm
ABC Adelaide doing its dutiful best to keep the “slapdown” story alive. Showing lots of pictures of an angry European chap interspersed with shots of Gillard, so there MUST be a connection, mustn’t there?
by BSA Bob on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:11 pm
bk
Wash your mind out with Dettol.
Imagine how big the tremour would’ve been if Sophie joined in for a menage á trois.
AARRGGHH!! (sound of Dan rushing off to wash his mind out with Dettol).
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:11 pm
To Victorian PBers…
This is a USGS site, with a map that should come up with the earthquake shortly. Click on the box over victoria (when it comes up) and there should be a wealth of maps etc (if it was big enough
)
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/
by Laocoon on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:11 pm
by confessions on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:12 pm
No news flash about earth tremor,media to busy making up stories
by Schnappi on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:12 pm
Darn
I don’t know what she has to gain or lose, either way. She may no longer have a choice if she is subpoened.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:13 pm
#fakeAbbott3
Told youse: carbon tax causes massive earthquake in Victoria.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:13 pm
5.2 according to USGS – pretty big
by Laocoon on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:14 pm
#fakesophie#
BK, did the earth move for you too dear?
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:14 pm
epicentre between Traralgon and Warragul
https://maps.google.com/maps?q=-38.244+146.1937(M5.2+-+NEAR+THE+SOUTHEAST+COAST+OF+AUSTRALIA+-+2012+June+19++10:53:29+UTC)&ll=-38.244,146.1937&spn=2,2&f=d&t=h
by Laocoon on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:15 pm
So far the info says that the epicentre was 10km SW of Moe, and had a magnitude of 5.2
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Melbourne quake damage.
https://encrypted-tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSAP5_AztMee2OdG6i_0zBKYVGUOpdfyEtzW_Bb8whHr7VIEJaNjg
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:15 pm
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:15 pm
The Melb Earthquake was God punishing us for having an atheist, childless & unmarried female PM. Hallelujah
by The Finnigans on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:15 pm
5.2 it seems
Earthquakes Tsunamis@NewEarthquake
5.2 earthquake, near the southeast coast of Australia. Jun 19 8:53pm at epicenter (20m ago, 121km ESE of Melbourne… http://j.mp/LZiTvu
by Schnappi on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:16 pm
Doyley:
Yes it appears the PM has been very strategic in her approach. And mostly consultative. She’s found the compromise position within the party, and while it disappoints me because I’d love to see Labor voting en bloc to legislate SSM, I can recognise that our parliament isn’t quite there yet.
Turnbull comes across as a weather vane on the issue: says one thing to his electorate and his partyroom in order to keep his job, but another to the wider public. Suspect Rudd is being a bit of a weather vane as well, but I’m sure the msm will keep us informed on that front.
by confessions on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:17 pm
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:17 pm
Its it just me or is it every time the PM is around Obama the ground shakes…. no im not being stupid. Im sure there was a major quake when she was in the oval office playing footy and was with obama during one of the NZ quakes
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:18 pm
Where’s Melbourne?
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:18 pm
r
You are in good form tonight.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:20 pm
I was waiting for that, Boerwar!
by BK on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:20 pm
Is that near a coal mine
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:20 pm
Fulvio
Somewhere east of Perth.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:20 pm
Shit! Has it disappeared?
by Darn on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:20 pm
The Twin Towers came down while Howard was worshipping at the feet of Bush. I’m sure there is a connection.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:21 pm
Augustus
Were you connected with the Adelaide physicists where Oliphant worked?
by daretotread on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:21 pm
Also not very deep too, quite close to the surface
by Mr Squiggle on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:21 pm
Tust a li eral to bring julias name i to this
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:21 pm
rummell:
Excellent
by confessions on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:21 pm
Justin Barbour (@justinbarbour)
19/06/12 9:10 PM
“This #earthquake is just a disaster for Julia” – @michellegrattan.
by Rossmore on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:21 pm
Dunno. Apparently our Prime Minister lives there, but I don’t think she has the birth certificate to prove it.
by confessions on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:23 pm
daretotread
“Were you connected with the Adelaide physicists where Oliphant worked?”
RSPHYSS ANU
by Augustus on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:23 pm
Gosh i was just sayi g about tne southern lights giving us a message
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:23 pm
confessions @ 2729
Can’t help yourself can you?
Another straw man argument.
There will be no Labor implosion and either Gillard or Rudd will lead Labor into the next election.
by bemused on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:24 pm
r
I understand that Mr Morrison is going to insist that Struggletown Rats will only be allowed into the ACT if they have passed security checks and provided they carry their TPVs with them at all times. Apparently HMAS Harmon will be used a holding tank for those who are caught trying to smuggle themselves down the Molongolo by way of floating willow rafts and the like.
I anticipate the the ACT citizens will revolt at his weakness in failing to protect our borders.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:24 pm
“More intensive coal mining would have relieved the underground pressure. Labor policy to blame” – Grattan.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:24 pm
Whyalla is fine everyone, don’t worry.
http://www.whyalla.com/page.aspx?u=71
by deflationite on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:24 pm
that was a pretty decent shake, especially when you live 8 floors up!!!
any Bludgers down Moe way – hope everyone is ok – 5.2 is pretty big
by womble on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:25 pm
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/quake-shakes-melbourne-20120619-20m88.html#ixzz1yEmyAcat
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:25 pm
my say
no coal mines 10KM SW of Moe
must be the Trafalgar, Strezlecki foothills.
still having a few rumbles here.
by kezza2 on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:26 pm