Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
Page 1 of 3 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Boerwar,
“Struggletown”, haven’t heard that expression for quite some time.
by Augustus on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Is Telstra in bed with Fairfax?
Telstra @Telstra
#Melbourne followers are reporting an #Earthquake – We hope everyone is ok http://ow.ly/bFMh3 (Source: Fairfax/Twitter) #MelbQuake -MH
They put Fairfax as a news source first.
by zoidlord on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:26 pm
my say
The brown coal mines are a fair way away from the epicentre.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Oh, it’s in Kenya….
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:27 pm
For those of you so inclined, the USGS solicits feedback from people who have felt the earthquake. The link is on this page:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/events/us/b000ajek/us/index.html
by Laocoon on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Earthquakes will always be bigger under a Noalition government.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:27 pm
abc 24 reports earhquake
by Schnappi on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:27 pm
kezza
R U OK?
by lizzie on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Boerwar.
Im sure we all will be very upset if they lock canberra up and dont let us in.
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:27 pm
I knew a physicist who worked with Oliphant in Adelaide – just after WWII
Later moved to Sydney Uni Physics. Names son after Oliphant
by daretotread on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Jonathan Holmes (@jonaholmesMW)
19/06/12 6:19 PM
Where in the msm would you get analysis like this? Nowhere? grogsgamut.blogspot.com
by Rossmore on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Augustus
It is certainly a golden oldie. Some of the McMansions have spoiled the fun.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:28 pm
What the fracking is Gina up to in Melbourne!
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:29 pm
My cat was fast asleep in her usual spot, and the tremor jolted her out of her slumber. She abruptly got up and looked around, trying to figure out what was going on! It was a doozy!
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:29 pm
r
You could always insist on a deal involving permission to pass through on the way to the coast.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:29 pm
womble
Thanks. We’re all fine.
Engineering son in bed, coolly calling out for updates!
Reckons there’ll be a few landslides in the area they worked on over summer.
by kezza2 on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:30 pm
Folk’s
As a new poster here I would like nail my colours to the mast and make a simple statement, I support both Gillard and Rudd or Rudd and Gillard, Rudd as my local member and Gillard are leader of the Australian Labor Party, but mosty importantly and all that should really matter is I support the Australian Labor Party.
by Augustus on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:30 pm
Has there been any ginafication under the foundations of fairfax?
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:31 pm
“ABC 24 reports earhquake”.
Kevin removing more wax?
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Kezza
Sounds like the epicentre was near you. Has there been any damage?
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Augustus
No worries. Enjoy.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Victoria so all is forgiven re cat
I noticed you said
My cat
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:32 pm
I will go through Captains flat.
by rummel on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:32 pm
lizzie
still a bit shaky, actually.
especially when a new rumble starts and you think it’s going to get bigger.
Still trying to find the cat
Had just let it out a couple of minutes beforehand.
Ginnie’s (the dog) only just settled down.
Thanks for asking.
by kezza2 on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:33 pm
my say
I have become quite fond of the cat.
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:33 pm
good to hear Kezza – must have felt really strong that close to it
by womble on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:33 pm
Getting the tremors every ninety seconds here in Daceyville in South Eastern Sydney. The last one was an Airbus A330. I hate it when they make the ground under the east west runway shake.
I remember living in Maroubra, 170km away, when the Newcastle one hit. Felt it big time. Of course, being up a ladder painting the ceiling didn’t help.
by Roy Orbison on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Pretty big news
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1660999/Pakistan-court-disqualifies-PM
by Leroy on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:34 pm
ABC news 24 has a story on right now about a post-grad student from India who was held in immigration detention for 18 months because he worked for a few hours while on a student visa.
What a total over reaction.
by ShowsOn on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Augustus
Well said
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:35 pm
r
I was unclear. We could let struggletown rats into the ACT provided struggletown rats allowed the anointed ones through struggletown to get to the coast.
I advise against the Captains Flat road. Friends tell me they are sick of having to stop and provide first aid to the more head-strong of the commutariat.
Although it does have the distinction of possibly the only Wombat Creek Bridge in Australia.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:35 pm
Augustus
Hear hear
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:35 pm
Daily Tel …. “Melbourne has stood ……still???”
MELBOURNE has stood still after a sequence of tremors shook the city just before 9pm.
Readers have swamped the Herald Sun with calls reporting significant tremors from everyone from the suburbs all the way across the state to country Victoria.
The tremor, which last about 20 seconds, has been felt from Kilmore, Gippsland, Mitcham, Coburg, Kensington, St Albans, Mornington Peninsula, Drouin, Rowville and inner-Melbourne.
The tremors have been felt by millions of people.
Where were you when the tremors rocked Melbourne? Send your pictures or video to online@heraldsun.com.au
It is not yet known if the tremor has caused any damage.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/earthquake-rocks-victoria/story-e6freuy9-1226401634580
by Rossmore on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:35 pm
daretotread,
Oliphant was appointed to setup the Research School at the ANU in ’53 I think.
by Augustus on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:36 pm
Third attempt, ShowsOn. Get the feeling nobody’s listening?
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:36 pm
About 1979-80 thereabouts, there was quite a strong tremor in Melbourne.
My OH just reminded me that I blamed him for shaking the bed.
by Dee on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:37 pm
k2
Earthquake survivor! Well done.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Thats good victoria
I oved our cat which was chozen by our middle daughter at 16.
A persian we had him 12 years , i still miss him
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:37 pm
by victoria on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:38 pm
Back @2111 someone said that Gillard was indeed an atheist rather than an agnostic, and gave me a link to a 30/6/10 interview with Jon Faine.
The article contained nothing more impressive than Gillard saying she didn’t believe in God. That’s consistent with being an atheist without entailing being an atheist. On that view, she is certainly an agnostic. Literally — she knows nothing of “god”.
Being an atheist demands, IMO, the view that there is no god. Perhaps that’s what she asserts, though I’m yet to hear her claim thta.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:38 pm
Marcus Oliphant finished his term as Governor the year before we left SA for Sydney. I remember Don Dunstan being furious with Oliphant for agreeing with Kerr about the Dismissal. He came in to the firm I worked with to see a lawyer friend and he wasn’t a happy bunny.
Donny had appointed Oliphant Governor so I guess he felt a bit responsible.
by BH on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:38 pm
Earthquake memes have started already
http://t.co/fkNojdiB
by deflationite on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:38 pm
Well, he was a younger man then, Dee.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:38 pm
victoria
haven’t heard news of any damage, although there’s still quite a lot of activity in our street and just saw a neighbour jump in his car and go racing away!
I’ll keep you updated if I hear anything.
by kezza2 on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:39 pm
http://www.google.com/#sclient=tablet-gws&hl=en&tbo=d&q=persian+cats++picture&oq=persian+cats++picture&aq=f&aqi=g2g-K1&aql=&gs_l=tablet-gws.3..0l2j0i30.1253322.1266334.0.1268534.21.16.0.2.2.0.1545.10125.3-4j3j4j3j1j1.16.0…0.0.W3iyFlYyEsU&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.,cf.osb&fp=65363d6402986b3b&biw=1280&bih=800&biv=i|15;d|AuRQMHaI2G39MM:
Like this gold in colour
by my say on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Leroy
Talk about ramshackle governance. You wonder how it keeps holding itself together.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Heard you the first time. What’s your point? Or are you simply looking for someone to blame?
If you really want an argument, what does “a few hours” constitute? And what did his visa allow him to do? Was he denied consular access?
by Roy Orbison on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:40 pm
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:40 pm
I just saw a story on ABC News 24 about a post-graduate student from India who was held in immigration detention for 18 months because he worked for a few hours while on a student visa.
What a total over reaction.
by ShowsOn on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Dee
If it wasn’t you and it wasn’t him, who…oh, wait.
by Boerwar on Jun 19, 2012 at 9:40 pm