Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Morning bludgers
Womble
Hope there are no more shake ups!
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 7:55 am
I don’t know about that. I saw the start of the SBS news last night (only because I hadn’t switched over from Letters and Numbers), and it seemed pretty clear to me they knew the real story. The headlines and lead-in (plus the pre-news grab) were all about “Gillard rebuked”, but the content of the story was more faithful to the truth – they sprinkled the real story in amongst whatever negative angle they could find. That struck me as a deliberate ploy.
Once again, this is a blatant example of deliberately talking down the country and our economy. The underlying message here is “how dare she tell others what to do when she can’t even run this country?” You’ll hear all these political wonks crying crocodile tears over the good story this country has to tell and the failure of this government to tell it, and then when you’ve got a good example of us telling our story to the world, suddenly it’s outrageous!
Let’s be clear about this. When all the other myths about bad management of the economy are stripped away, the message that remains is that this government are bad communicators and are unable to sell a good story. Well, the rest of the world know the story, so what’s stopping it being told in this country?
Not looking at anyone in particular, Shanahan.
by Aguirre on Jun 20, 2012 at 7:55 am
dedalus
Good luck with that! It seems the ABC dont give a stuff, unless it is the coalition making a complaint.
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 7:56 am
@Simon_Cullen: Here’s the Ecuadorian Govt’s statement on #Assange: http://t.co/oGlrK7MC
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 7:56 am
@Wendy_Bacon: Media regulation doesn’t have to mean government control. Could provide framework for independence #fairfax #abcrn
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 7:57 am
Just to upset some more people – I’m on the side of the states when it comes to increasing public housing rents to include the carbon tax compensation. Public housing rents are a set percentage of household income 20-25% – if you start excluding certain income in certain circumstances it all becomes too complicated to calculate and audit.
This type of thing is something that the federal government should’ve taken into account
by womble on Jun 20, 2012 at 7:57 am
And that’s why I couldn’t give a flying fart about what’s happening at Fairfax. They haven’t demonstrated themselves to be any better than the rest, so I won’t miss them when they’re gone. There are plenty of places to be misinformed, if that’s what I’m seeking.
by Aguirre on Jun 20, 2012 at 7:57 am
Morning all.
Puffy: best wishes for your mum!
Absolutely pathetic. Political asylum in Ecuador FFS. The man is a joke.
by confessions on Jun 20, 2012 at 7:57 am
confessions
The man is desperate. I don’t blame him. If guilty it is a good move for him. If innocent the political involvement in the case shows his chances of a fair trial are slim at best.
It has been two years and no charges have been laid.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 7:59 am
Aguirre
We have been carrying on about the msm on here for ages. Yesterday’s reportage has well and truly removed any doubt of what the msm have been deliberately doing.
Compare and contrast the reportage of Craig Thomson and Slipper, to the non reportage now of the question mark over the coalition’s involvement in the Slipper set up and Kathy Jackson’s behaviour in court, and information to hand that appears to show fraud on her part. I have never in all these years, seen such a deliberate attempt by the msm to slant the reportage. It has been nothing short of disgraceful.
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 7:59 am
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/the-mysterious-pell/
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:00 am
you have got to be kidding right?
by WeWantPaul on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:01 am
Good News. Maybe some change will come in politics on environment in the US
@washingtonpost: Post poll: Most Americans think environment has deteriorated over past decade, humans are making it worse http://t.co/89F17CUN
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:02 am
Not good – A further contraction in media ownership in Australia.
Kohler & Co must really want to cash out their ownership, although it appears they will still staff the publications, but maybe under the OO banner & website – Newscorp reportedly offered $30 M at the beginning of the year.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mergers-acquisitions/eureka-moment-imminent-for-news-limited/story-fn91vdzj-1226401643945
by dave on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:02 am
WeWantPaul
Ask yourself. Why have no charges been laid?
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:03 am
Unsurprisingly the IPA thinks Leveson inquiry is a farce.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4080222.html
by confessions on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:03 am
guytaur:
There’s been no political interference. Quite the opposite, Assange has been demanding political interference from Australia.
by confessions on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:04 am
Agree 150%, it is also one of the best and clearest evidences of the ABC, at worst being as guilty as News and at very best being News unthinking gimp. It echoed both the lie stories and the non-retraction. It should be subject to an inquiry / case study.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:06 am
womble -
Rubbish. Gina Rinehart is part of Australian society, and has the rights that we, collectively, allow her to have.
There is no god given/inherent right to be able to buy power – and I, for one, find the very notion offensive.
If the ultra rich abuse the power they have working within the system, and they push things too far, then the system breaks down, and lots of people suffer.
Within limits we let people use their money (as a proxy for “resource entitlement”) as they see fit, but when you get to the current ultra rich, the rules are necessarily different – when $200 million buys you a controlling stake in one of only 2 large media companies in the country, and that $200 million is pocket change for you, then things have become too distorted for simply talking about “free exercise of power” or what have you.
On this I cautiously agree – I do hope the downfall of Fairfax will spawn a new enthusiasm among the public for starting up and supporting new online voices, and those that are already there – Crikey for one.
by Jackol on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:07 am
http://turnleft2013.wordpress.com/2012/06/20/image-it-is-amazing-what-you-can-accomplish-if-you-do-not-care-who-gets-the-credit/
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:07 am
confessions
You have obviously not followed the case. It was dropped initially because prosecutors deemed there was no case. Then one prosecutor has leapt on this and pursued. Yet no charges have been laid. After two years if there was enough substance to claims by the woman charges would have been laid. If only because it would have made it much more difficult for Assange to contest the wanted for questioning warrant issued by Sweden. Remember Sweden has form in this area.
@ggreenwald: In 2006, UN found Sweden in violation of global ban on torture for turning over 2 people to CIA to be rendered to Egypt http://t.co/m4k1sKUx
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:07 am
Charges have been laid, he is to be extradited to face them. He isn’t a political refugee he is a refugee from the criminal system.
There has been no political interference, and in fact that is one of the things Julian complains about.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:07 am
The above is how see our pm,
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:08 am
Re the turn left link
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:09 am
WeWantPaul
The warrant for extradition is to be asked questions. NO charges have been laid.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:09 am
@AboutTheHouse: Today’s daily program is no up – House sits from 9am and begins with government business http://t.co/vGx2PFW1
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:10 am
@AP: MORE: Mubarak put on life support after his heart stopped as he arrived at a military hospital, official says: http://t.co/nzqiwXKZ
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:11 am
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:12 am
Less media diversity again.
@mattdasilva: News Limited to announce it’s buying Business Spectator, Alan Kohler’s website.
@AlexGreenwich: MEDIA RELEASE: GARY GRAY JOINS MAJORITY OF CABINET IN BACKING #MARRIAGEEQUALITY … http://t.co/lAW6OR6o
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:14 am
You might well be making the mistake of confusing language from incompatible legal systems. But you are probably right ‘accusations’ or for ‘investigation’ is probably more accurate. Nothing turns, there is nothing suspicious and nothing that would justify us all making tinfoil hats on the bogus claims about no ‘charges’.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:15 am
On Assange, there is a legitimate – although it’s drawing a long bow – chance that he could potentially face the death penalty in the US if he ends up there. He has a legal right to seek asylum on that basis imo
by womble on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:16 am
Final word, if Sweden is to give Assange to the Amercians it would be even more important to them that proper process is followed to get him into their custody.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:16 am
Good morning everybody.
Puff, my best wishes to your mum and to you.
BK @ 3144,
It was in yesterday’s Age on the Letters page (tried to link but without success) – and yes, absobloodlylutely brilliant.
Must go and find a small child, catch youse all later.
by fiona on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:17 am
Except there is no evidence the US even want him, just speculation and conspiracy theories.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:17 am
Thanks for links, BK
By far the best part of
is Turnbull’s encore of the first Age’s masthead’s use of Alexander Pope’s marvellously acute lines from Imitations of Horace In moderation placing all my glory/While Tories call me Whig – and Whigs a Tory. Like so much of Pope’s work, its intelligence and deliciously acute wit are timeless. The lines are in such a wonderful setting, I thought you might like a few more:
Maybe a lesson or so in there for us who post on William’s blog!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:17 am
Hmmmmm, who would have thunk that. Crikey is next i supposed.
by The Finnigans on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:17 am
guytaur:
Assange is no more a political refugee than I am. He is simply trying to avoid being asked about rape claims, which is odd seeing as most men wrongfully accused of such deeds are usually very keen to clear their name.
But if Assange living in Ecuador means we no longer have to hear his whingeing, that will have been a good outcome in my view.
by confessions on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:18 am
WeWantPaul
Respected people with legal expertise disagree with you. I think either the man is guilty as sin and is using the asylum option to avoid facing the music. Or he is innocent of sexual assault charges (which do not exist in Australia) and truly fears being handed over to the Americans. It is clear the Australian Government is not pro active in stopping any such thing from the evasive comments on this issue by the PM and others.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:19 am
WeWantPaul
On US moves on Assange see repeat of this weeks Four Corners.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:20 am
womble:
There’s no evidence the US want Assange. Quite the opposite; the Ambassador has explicitly said the US has no interest in him.
I’m of the view that Assange suffers from a massive ego, which is why he imagines himself to be this all-important being wanted by any number of countries.
by confessions on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:22 am
confessions
Has it not occurred to you that fear of the US given its clear history is a valid fear.
Using sexual allegations is a tried and true measure from authorities wanting to make defence difficult. Remember one of these ladies has been discovered to have links with the CIA.
I am not saying Assange is innocent. I am saying the political interference is there. Why was the case taken up again after it was dropped by the first prosecutor?
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:23 am
You are not convinced of PM Gillard bashing by #MSMhacks & #TheirABC? Yesterday headline of: “EU Chief blasts PM”. Never happened, all lies.
by The Finnigans on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:23 am
guytaur
ffs, there is nothing the Australian government can do. They can’t apply pressure on English or Swedish legal systems, that would be entirely inappropriate, and beyond talking to the US and making sure they understand that Australia would look unfavourably on secret midnight flights, what exactly can they do?
The US has not made any move yet – you can’t be “pro active” in our legal system. So what are you saying the Australian government could or should be doing?
by Jackol on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:23 am
guytaur
My reading of Assange, is that he believes he is above the law. Something about him does not gel
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:24 am
So let me rephrase that for you
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:25 am
Fran Kelly on RN giving a huge “Let’s Back Gina” segment.
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:25 am
The finns
Why aren’t members of the govt calling the media out on these lies. Are they waiting for JG to return first or something?
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:25 am
Jackol
No FFS. The PM initially said he was guilty of crimes. Until corrected by the AFP. Note I said Pro Active measures. That is making clear to the Americans that rendition will not be tolerated by Australia. No need to wait for the US Grand Jury Inditement to be made public which will be after the US has got Assange in the US.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:26 am
guytaur:
I think you are guilty of the same thing Assange is: making something out of nothing and imagining things to be present which are not.
Personally I was predisposed towards Assange until his supporters started conflating his situation with that of David Hicks. It became clear to me then support for Assange’s ‘plight’ has nothing to do with justice, and everything to do with martyrdom.
by confessions on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:27 am
giytaur
Explain the difference between News corp employees hacking computers and phones, and Assange via his proxy doing the same?
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 8:27 am