Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
zoid
Not so I am afraid.
@preciouspress: The farce that is the Leveson inquiry http://t.co/NFwTFpE3 via @abcthedrum And who finds it so. None other than IPA luminary Chris Berg.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:44 am
The reason for buying spree is because trouble in paradise in the UK.
by zoidlord on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:45 am
shellbell
According to 4C (?) a grand jury was meeting secretrly to put one together. It showed footage of the building where this was supposed to have been happening.
If the US Ambassador said there ‘…is…’ no secred indictman he would have been telling the truth. The real question would be, ‘Is a grand jury secretly considering and/or putting together an idictment?’
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:45 am
Hockey in the House bemoaning “the mountain we’ll have to climb” (meaning what Labor will leave them).
by triton on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:45 am
If everyone around the world is blasting the PM for her comments, then someone must be listening to her!
On a more sombre note, if the Tories gain control of Fairfax, will we ever see a Federal Labor Government again?
by Lynchpin on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:46 am
PM Gillard said EURO Leaders will use STIMPAC to push for growth
by The Finnigans on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:47 am
Whether or not Assange would be guilty of rape under ‘Australian’ law (it varies from state to state) is a moot point.
I would think gaining consent by deception – that is, promising to use a condom and then not doing so – could lead to a conviction, in the same way that women having consensual sex and then finding that the man concerned was not who they thought it was have successfully pressed charges.
There is also (allegedly) a pattern of behavior, with two women making much the same allegations, which (to my mind) makes the case much stronger than the normal ‘he said, she said’ rape case.
by zoomster on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:47 am
SK you’re being logically inconsistent:
That’s right, because there’s a principle at stake that we’ve chosen to believe that the death penalty is not an appropriate penalty for any crime.
If you accept that as a moral principle, then what the AFP chose to do was immoral.
How I twist what?
Person X, while in country C, commits, or is suspected of commiting a crime subject to the death penalty in country C, but person X made it to Australia before this was discovered. We won’t extradite person X to country C until the death penalty is not an option, even though the penalty for the crime in country C is the death penalty. A simplistic “choose crime do the time” would mean that we should simply extradite in all cases, which is what you’re in effect advocating.
If the principle applies to extradition, it should apply to decisions of the AFP.
by Jackol on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:49 am
Finns you are being retweeted
@Thefinnigans: #TheirABC’s headline of shame: “EU Chief blasts PM
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:49 am
Jackol
The US has, in other cases, offered to waive any chance of the death penalty being imposed as part of extradition agreements.
If Mr Assange goes to Ecuador he may be murdered extrajurisdictionally and extrajudicially by the US. They have murdered hundreds of people via drones for far less, or nothing at all. Or something. Who knows? There is no transparency and no accountability.
Mr Assange’s best chance of living to a ripe old age is to return to Australia in order to get extradited under an agreement waiving the death penalty.
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:50 am
Further proof of another crack in the Labor base. Unions in NSW appearing to back the DLP!
by C@tmomma on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:50 am
http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2012/06/this-cat-played-it-cool-in-melbourne-earthquake/
Video clip
by Leroy on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:51 am
Why not follow the US example regarding media ownership and citizenship?
Worldwide media ownership in the hands of a few should be scaring the shitters out of everyone.
by Dee on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:52 am
How do you come to that conclusion?
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:52 am
Jackol,
You miss the point. AFP or no AFP, here, there or every where, commit a crime, if you dare, do the time, at walls you’ll stare.
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:52 am
BK
#fakeSophie#
I know, I know. Talk to me, baby. I’ll calm your shattered nerves. Bring your will and we can read it together. But, wait. What IS this between you and Gilbert?
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:53 am
SK -
No, I haven’t missed any point. How can you rationalize not extraditing to face the death penalty with that stance?
by Jackol on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:53 am
by C@tmomma on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:53 am
Jackol,
I don’t rationalise it. THEY DID IT THEY SUCK IT UP.
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:55 am
SK
So you are happy that the AFP were given the information to prevent that crime but let it go ahead?
Well, I suppose the father did commit a crime, a crime of trust. He approached the AFP with information. He is paying the price. He has signed his own son’s death warrant.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:55 am
These pressers are useless. I can’t hear the questions so I can’t evaluate the answers.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:57 am
SK
Jackol is right. You are wrong. Unless you repudiate the Bipartisan (yeah it still exists despite Abbott) approach of Australian governments not to extradite where death penalty applies.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:57 am
SK -
Right, so if THEY DID IT but got to Australia in time, they don’t have to die, but if THEY DID IT but get caught due to the AFP passing on a father’s tip, THEY SUCK IT UP.
You’re right, you’re not rationalizing it – you’re not even making any sense.
by Jackol on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:58 am
Puff,
While I don’t like what Indonesion law does, the point is they were aware of what they were doing. People selling/carrying drugs overseas etc is a death sentence. They signed their own death warrants. They had the Schapelle issue all over the papers for months on end. Ignorant they were not.
I don’t know why the AFP did what they did but whilst their decision might have made the mules lives easier, it does not detract from the fact that they did it, they were going to get paid to do it, knew the consequences and did it anyway.
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:01 am
The hockey spill rumour has merit going on yesterdays question time
when abbott was being under the pump,
Hockey and turnbull kept looking at each other and talking, which i thought was strange at the time
Never seen them do that before
by Meguire Bob on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:02 am
Gina makes it to a very long article in The Guardian online (Alison Rourke in Sydney) Gina Rinehart: from mining magnate to Australia’s newest media mogul
Rightwing billionaire’s decision to increase stake in struggling Fairfax is about influencing the political debate, say friends
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:02 am
#fakeAbbott# says:
I see that Gillard has the gall to lecture the world about the state of Australia’s economy. That’s my job.
The economy is f**cked.
BTW, I hope you all had a sleepless night of anxiety and worry about the killer carbon python squeeze last night. It is going to hurt you all where your heart and souls reside: your hip pockets.
Feeling bad? Good!
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:02 am
Victoria, I wouldn’t place too much hope in Christian Porter. If you don’t know much about him I’ve put together some notes in a couple of places to support a pome.
http://cafewhispers.wordpress.com/2012/06/17/why-leave-the-west/
by PatriciaWA on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:03 am
@SabraLane: JG says when she’s talked with world leaders about Aust’s economy they “Sigh with a certain degree of wistful envy.
@jason_om: Gillard says Assange has received more consular assistance than any other Australian in a comparable period. #assange
@MayneReport: Be interested to see if Spectator runs any commentary attacking Rupert’s $2bn Packer pay TV bid. Rupert is unfit for pay-tv monopoly.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:03 am
Since when is it the govts job to save people from themselves.
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:03 am
PM said world leaders “Sigh with a certain degree of wistful envy” about Aust’s economy – who wld not envy the BISONs – http://www.thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/
by The Finnigans on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:05 am
SK
The government in this case in the form of the AFP had the choice on when to act on the information it received about a crime.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:06 am
Kiddo, +1
by The Finnigans on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:06 am
Boerwar
I get the impression I’m being stalked!
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:06 am
Faine is doing his weekly media segment atm
wonder if they’ll mention the deceptive reporting of the g20 ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:06 am
PatriciaWA
I know nothing about Porter, save to say, he is a Lib. That is enough for me to decide that he is no good!!
Btw nice pome
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:08 am
Flipper? Parliament? FINNS?
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/politics/the-day-flipper-got-dragged-into-parliament-20120619-20m7q.html
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:09 am
So let’s see a return to advertising cigarettes on TV and print media.
etc etc etc
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:09 am
Guys,
We’ll have to agree to disagree on this one.
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:09 am
@AdamBandt: So #Assange has to turn to Ecuador for help. An indictment on how our Gov has treated one of its citizens & journalists http://t.co/p7lXTPxy
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:09 am
#fakesophie# says:
BK, if that Gilbert man is stalking you, I will protect you, in my shed.
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:09 am
Tom Hawkins@3363,
I was surprised to see a Tweet from the NSW DLP seemingly backed up by the Unions and it just caused my mind to wander to the point that whereas once the Unions and the ALP were joined together, now we are starting to see some Unions supporting The Greens, such as the ETU in Victoria, and now, the DLP and the Unions in NSW reviving ties.
Didn’t it seem that way to you?
by C@tmomma on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:09 am
BK, by the lips?
https://encrypted-tbn1.google.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSG120_7xPKtSM496O5Nn5bDgprfj984duQ9I6ZIM-f1hQAmPsX
by The Finnigans on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:10 am
BK@3208 – I switched over to watch Bill Shorten on A-PAC at the CEDA thing. He spoke really well on all things employer/employee and was pretty impressive.
His response to the last question was excellent about the Govt. appreciating mining employers’ contribution to the community while notbeing scared of criticising when they are wrong.
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:10 am
Yes, I can see some saying the father should suck it up. It is his fault for breeding a drug-trafficker.
It is a salutary lesson to any parent about whom to trust when dealing with a son or daughter’s involvement in the drug trade. Who exactly should a parent turn to in these situations I do not know, but it is obviously not the police or fundamentalist law and order types.
It demonstrates the total failure of the criminal model in dealing with addictive drugs. It panders to fundamentalism but does nothing to prevent the use and trafficking of drugs and actually discourages family members from intervening when someone gets an addiction. There is nowhere for them to turn because the outcome is a Bali 9 situation and people shouting “Hang, ya bastards.”
But who knows whose little kid could grow up into the same situation. I wonder who will be calling for the rope then?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:11 am
Middle Man, not with Mesma
by The Finnigans on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:11 am
SK
#fakeAbbott# says:
That is what I keep telling everybody about everything the Government wants to do.
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:12 am
The Finnigans
How could you !!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gi7-8_FjYxw
by poroti on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:12 am
It annoys me that Assange constantly complains that Oz govt has abandoned him.
Someone on Twitter called him a drama queen. I agree.
by lizzie on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:13 am
Meguire Bob@3374,
What say you a Hockey/Turnbull double act with Hockey as Leader and Turnbull taking over as Shadow Treasurer? Wouldn’t it be a delicious irony if the Liberal leadership was spilt over Abbott’s refusal to allow a Conscience Vote on the Same Sex Marriage Bill?
by C@tmomma on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:14 am