Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
LoL
Yeh sure, Gillard’s personal ratings a total mess for a long time. Labor’s PV and TPP a mess for a very long time.
A VAST majority of Australians thinking Gillard Labor is worse than Rudd Labor.
The grading of Gillard Labor against Rudd two years ago is her massive failure and tells you what is really going through the mind of Australians.
No, dont change the leader. Quickly, discuss the colour and style of the chairs on this Titanic, diss the rescue ship Rudd just off to starboard, throw out all the life vests, hole all the life boats. Nobody she get off this ship, because its all a lie, it isn’t going to sink.
lol
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:39 am
joe2,
We were investigating a possible connection between Wyatt Roy (son of sunshine coast Strawberry farming family) and Ashby who was employed at Gowinta Strawberry farm (since gone bust).
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:40 am
joe2
The court case will reveal all. Maybe as early as today.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:40 am
The message needs to get out there that we are all being held to ransom by air-conditioners and not the solar panels that are alleviating the problem.
by joe2 on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:41 am
smithe
I totally agree with you about who decides budgets. However it appears enough Greek voters do not as seen at election time. Of course I and I suspect you think there will be buyers remorse on that one.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:42 am
1900 jobs to go at Fairfax. SMH to switch to tabloid by 2014.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:42 am
Now we see why all the MSM whinging over twitter and other social media.
@FinancialReview: 1900 Fairfax jobs to go over the next three years http://t.co/DD94wshF #ausbiz
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:42 am
It seems that Strawberrygate is becoming juicier by the day.
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:43 am
@abcmarkscott: SMH and Age to go tabloid. Metered paywalls. Printing plants to close. 1900 jobs to go. The announcement: http://t.co/RpiYbtgl
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:43 am
Thankyou folks. I had picked that up but thought there might be MOAR the way Vic was talking.
by joe2 on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:45 am
And its transition to the Dark Side is complete.
Vale Australian journalism.
by smithe on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:46 am
BB,
Can we pick which 1900?
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:46 am
So the only attempts at Quality Journalism in the text realm are going to be Cirkey and the Global Mail. No computer no access to quality Australian analytical articles.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:47 am
I think the whole “Abbott is poor/overrated” meme, pushed by different people for different reasons, is itself overrated.
Its his relentless negativity that’s made the govt look so bad, created the impression of chaos etc. I’m quite sure NO other liberal leader, if somehow in the position of LOTO in a hung Parli, could have made so much of it and driven the polls to where they have been, govt low but his PPM also low. Not Turnbull, not Hockey, not anyone. It’s his singlemindedness that drives every attack, another leader would have eased off some of the time and refused to cross certain lines. Not him, he has no limits.
That doesn’t mean his strategy will work all the way to late 2013, and that he doesn’t have weaknesses, its just that I find people underestimating him really strange and unrealistic.
I tell you one thing though, if somehow Rudd was PM again, don’t expect Abbott to go, they’d keep him, looking to ride out any poll bump. They & he will have the smell of blood for sure, and will be looking forward to actual governmental chaos, not just the impression of it in parliament.
by Leroy on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:50 am
Vic gets a bit excited sometimes Joe2. All that Strawberry Fields stuff here was just idle speculation.
We’ve yet to see who the LNP figures involved in the stitch-up were from phone and text records.
No doubt we’ll find out in due course, when these records get an airing in Court.
by smithe on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:50 am
Well, I’ll remind In De Nile Tory dumbclucks what Howard’s ratings were like in 1998, 2001, 2004 right up to the elections. And Keating’s 3 days before 1993′s – on Election Day, he actually increased his majority by 2 seats. Oh, and Hayden’s the week before Election1980, when polls had him winning! DOH.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:51 am
No large newspapers any more? What shall I lay under the cat’s bowls? The Age invaluable for puppy pens and wrapping china. :sob:
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:51 am
When I was looking back on pb site for Ashby stuff I noticed people talking about Uhlmann and how he should be taken off the story because of his book connection with Lewis.
Just to remind everbody, Chris did an interview with Brough that could only be described as electoral promotion puff piece with not one question about Ashby despite his recent exposure for pretending he had not met him.
It was a bloody disgrace.
by joe2 on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:52 am
leroy
No one is underestimating the impact of the relentless negativity of Abbott. Hence the phrase relentless negativity.
What people argue over is the strategy and its chances of success.
Some are starting to wake up and realise that relentless negativity will not win an election.
Why? See NSW and Queensland elections. Not the last ones the ones before.
Negative campaigns were run against them and failed. It was only when the Coalition came up with some semblance of a positive and legitimate alternative to Government did the toxic Labor governments fall.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:54 am
Just for info. ‘Good’ graphs of ice decline.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/06/17/501030/death-spiral-watch-arctic-sea-ice-takes-a-nosedive/?mobile=nc
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:56 am
Finns, what a pity, I’m in the city today or we could have convened a Bludge over some pork buns at the Hung Chung on Marrickville Road!
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:56 am
Leroy
I agree with this. Especially people who aren’t particularly turned on by politics. Abbott is smearing all politicians by his attitude.
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:58 am
Leroy
This is perhaps the most prescient post I have read on ALP leadership issues for quite a while.
by Lynchpin on Jun 18, 2012 at 9:58 am
Only problem with what Leroy is saying is the very significant part the media is playing in supporting their man Abbott.
by joe2 on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:01 am
The only business model theyhaven’t tried is balanced reporting, without agendas in a positive light.
The journos would rather talk the economy, governance and our institutions down.
There are no summits. There are only “gabfests”.
A government decision is never made for the betterment of the nation. It is only a factional deal done for the purposes of spin.
The journos never saw an international conference they thought would be worth attending.
They never see a talented politician they don’t think is plotting to take over the leadership.
They never receive a phone call from a disgruntled rump of “insiders” or “senior party sources” that isn’t splurged all over the front page.
They never hear a business leader make a comment that isn’t a “condemnation of the government.”
No one ever makes a verbal error without it being an “embarassing gaffe” that will ruin their careers or prospects.
A question is never answered in the correct “gotcha” manner, so the journos give themselves a licence to interrupt and hector.
No member of the public is not a “moron” or not told to “bugger off” – or just simply ignored – when they disagree with a columnist.
No “celebrity” is too trivial or infected with narcissm for their every move not to be splashed across the tabloid pages, given equal importance to genuinely world-significant events.
No interest rate, employment or other metric is reported as being anything else than a portent of doom, if not this month, then surely next month.
No piece of inconsequential political news is unimportant enough to be salivated over for months as a sure sign that one or the other leader/party/government/nation is on the way out.
And they wonder why no-one reads their shit sheets?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:03 am
Looks like the MSM is getting it in the neck verrrry slowly. 1900 jobs to go in the next few years and I believe that in the not too distance future NO-ONE will be prepared to pay for dead tree newspapers and only a few will be prepared to pay to jump the paywalls.
by Smaug on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:04 am
The least painful way of getting rid of permanent staff is to lean on those old enough to access their superannuation.
Fairfax might as well bury SMH & Age. Their descent from Oz’s most credible major newspapers to near-Murdoch tabloid trash (esp online versions) has been swift and pathetic. Increasingly, the best sources of Aussie news have been good blogs & UK online newspapers.
No wonder we’re getting weekly OpPolls. They give the hacks something to write about for a week; obviating the need to do any real investigative journalism; which, in Oz, is now the province of Blogs like Vex news & Independent Australia.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:04 am
I reckon the turning point was that ridiculous bolt for the doors of the House when Thomson looked like casting his ‘tainted vote’ with the Tories on a division.
That turned ‘relentless negativity’ into low farce in one fell swoop.
by smithe on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:08 am
joe2 – yes he does get a free ride from much of the media, but so would any Lib leader. The point stands, the other contenders would not have been doing so well in the same circumstances, in fact his media skills get good coverage from journos not necessarily sympathetic. It’s part of his skill set. To beat Abbott requires a long game, its not easy but its do-able. On the idea of the ALP changing leaders, just try and imagine what Abbott would make of it. Haven’t change advocates noticed Abbott’s well honed ability to seize the negative in any political event? The whole chain of events over the following months that would follow a Ruddstoration, would be an absolute feast for him.
by Leroy on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:09 am
Well, we can all rest assured that the Age and SMH are not going ‘tabloid’. No, they are going ‘compact’.
There, I knew that would make everyone feel better.
by bemused on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:10 am
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:11 am
BB @ 374,
Right to the core. Goodbye and good riddance to bad rubbish. Journalists my arse. Stenographers, gossip mongers, and PR flacks for assorted vested interests. That is the extent of their skill set. I will enjoy watching Gina pissing some of her billions against a wall for rags no one will bother paying for.
by ratsak on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:11 am
You nail it, BB.
Murdoch is essentially an anarchist bent on destroying all institutions of civilised government because it makes for better entertainment and money.
by joe2 on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:12 am
A senior political columnist recently wrote to me:
Says it all, actually.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:12 am
We should not forget that the urdoch rags are only surviving on life support because of Murdoch’s atavistic obsession with newsprint.
Once he’s gone (and hopefully before) they’ll go the way of the dodo, too.
One good thing out of all this may be that the NBN will be even more vital to MSM interests now. I wonder whether we’ll see a lessening of the pressure on it?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:15 am
Further evidence of the ethical void that is the Legal ‘Profession’ (sic).
Bankruptcy means fleeced Keddie clients will lose money
by bemused on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:16 am
Makes perfect sense for the punters. The great big magical painless carbon tax….. and despite the hype, joe blow knows it is not going to anything to change the climate.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:18 am
Stand by for the Dorothy Dixer to end all Dorothy Dixers in QT today!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-18/burke-cancels-trip-after-being-denied-a-pair/4076644
The wrecking ball has no limits.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:19 am
And how sad that is. To hear these people look at what damage he is doing and stand back in awe of the evil genius. Stephen Long has the gutse to say something of the truth and he is clipped by their ABC.
by joe2 on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:20 am
I hope that the descent into Murdochian trash has been worth it for Fairfax.
I doubt it. I bet the people responsible had a few drinks on the weekend thinking ‘oh god what have we done?!’
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:21 am
What needs to happen is a dramatic circulation loss coinciding exactly with the Gina Takeover.
by joe2 on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:23 am
Dash bb
Ithought u meant as of today
Can some please explain tbe difference , re tabloid
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:25 am
BB
I agree wholeheartedly. With the coming of the NBN and this move to disappear in print more people will look at buying Tablets. Already the most expensive tablet the iPad is below the $1000 mark. People who buy this will go for a advertiser supported local newspaper. Forget subscriptions. Most that spend that much money on their device will not be paying for news content. Remembering that the local content will be offered for free by council newsletters and the like online at very cheap cost.
Political News will be provided by email newsletter by the likes of Labor Connect for Labor and the Greens and LNP versions of the same.
The ABC and SBS will continue. Crikey and The global mail will continue. Some new competition will emerge. It will have to be purely advertiser funded to compete. The advertising revenue is there. It will be something of City centred cross-pollination of what is now the suburban papers and the SMH/AGE/Australian/Financial Review markets.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:25 am
Well, if the “new media” (the bloggers) are up to the mixed standard set on PB, I can’t see how much improvement there will be in the brave new world of social media.
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:25 am
my say,
Tabloid and broadsheet refer to the papers size.
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:26 am
I find it hard to believe that nearly half of my fellow Australians truly intends to vote for Abbott and his bunch of incompetents. Perhaps, to quote a Rat, the electorate is having “a little joke”? Not funny…
by Ozymandias on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:26 am
Are the public STUPID or just IGNORANT?.
by 1934pc on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:27 am
I sure this because I think Mr Gawenda has had some interesting article recently
@ABCNews24: Fmr editor of The Age Michael Gawenda joins us next to discuss the restructuring of the Fairfax Media group. Watch: http://t.co/AhggUgUN
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:27 am
my say
Tabloid refers to the physical size of the newspaper. Fairfax papers (with the exception of the Fin Review) have traditionally been broadsheets.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:28 am
my say
I understand totally your confusion. While as it is correct that Tabloid refers to the papers size. I do not know of a quality Tabloid.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 10:30 am