Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
How much money does the government spend on the school chaplaincy program?
by Burgey on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:26 am
No, they’ve positively found that it did not breach s 116 (the religious test clause).
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:26 am
All the feds have to do is fund it through the states.
by davidwh on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:27 am
Alright people, media in Aus is going to be Murdoch, Gina and the ABC. Can we start coming
Well victoria, get up where are they ,?
I think every one here needs to lobby the senator,
Phone calls tweets emails.
Its up to sen conroy to try to help
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:27 am
@lizzie/3548
Should get Abbott talking to Can Do up in QLD for some tips!
by zoidlord on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:27 am
The chaplaincy program is a $200m program.
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:27 am
I hope the government lets this program just die off, now they have the excuse. I do not like this talk of contingency plans.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:28 am
The reserve/ appeal position is based on the results of the Q 1910 referendum which entrenched Q state school secular education, but with a small number of regulated exceptions. It:
*prescribes 3x10min a week Bible readings by the teacher from the prescribed bible – but with no discussion or commentary allowed;
* stringently regulates visits by clergy (not allowed to contact children except within the prescribed classroom, and
*prescribes the right of parents to provide a written request that their offspring be exempt from RE (&, given the restrictions, any contact with clergy).
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:28 am
Puff
Me neither.
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:29 am
Puffy,
It is great if they replace them with counsellors but if they put through the same conditions as legislation I will be very disappointed as will Mr. Williams.
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:29 am
Me too. Here’s a chance for this supposedly misunderstood government to show the true believers that it does have some principles. Allowing churches/cults to indoctrinate children in state schools is outrageous. The soft option will be to rush through legislation which lets the scheme continue. The principled option will be to sh*tcan the whole thing, or radically modify it to require that all counselors be secular.
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:30 am
3524
Please let our prayers and wishes be answered
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:30 am
Patrick B
Hear! Hear!
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:31 am
A BIG win for Australia. Don’t expect to hear about it on the ‘News’.
by C@tmomma on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:31 am
SK @ 3536
And you similarly don’t know me or my life experiences.
But I know good parenting is not always enough to keep kids on track and I guess your parents discovered that too.
Scott Rush’s dad may well have been a model parent and does not deserve the anguish visited upon him by the actions of the AFP.
I am not judgemental about any parents. Almost all do their best in their circumstances.
by bemused on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:32 am
As I understand it the government already gives schools the option of choosing a Chaplain or a Counselor. Maybe sufficient funding should now be provided in the Budget for Counselors because I believe there never was enough money provided for them and so schools chose Chaplains who were funded by the Churches a lot of the time.
by C@tmomma on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:35 am
Let’s not get too excited about the HC decision just yet. The fine print – the stuff about chaplains being provided by Scripture Union – applies to Queensland and probably Tasmania and the ACT as well, not to the whole country. It will be interesting to see if the decision ends up applying to all states as they all employ various groups to provide state schools with chaplains.
Here’s a bit of info about that.
http://schoolchaplaincy.org.au/
There had been a lot of discussion about the poor standard of the chaplains provided by Scripture Union – often very young, barely out of their teens, and often with no training in counselling. These ‘chaplains’ also pushed the Scripture Union ideals – conservative, anti-gay etc. Here are some examples -
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2011/s3254932.htm
http://www.theage.com.au/national/education/school-chaplain-service-scary-20110602-1fiu3.html
There have also been complaints about ACCESS Ministries, which handles the program in Victoria, running an evangelical fundamentalist Christian program.
http://luckylosing.com/2011/07/29/the-weeping-sore-of-the-national-school-chaplaincy-programme/
The whole thing has always been unnecessary and a waste of money. Let’s hope today’s decision puts an end to it.
by leone on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:36 am
@bemused/3564
I think it’s not just about being model parent, but also effort, as well as good time management.
If you don’t have all 3, then it’s going to be a rough ride.
by zoidlord on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:36 am
There’s a review of the 1910 Q referendum result Let’s get “secular” back in the QLD Education Act
There was a reason why Joh Bjelke Petersen didn’t change it – from memory because it had to be done by referendum, and Joh never did command 50% of the state’s 2PP vote (I think c42% was his highest 2PP, though it was usually c38%).
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:38 am
OzPol@3557 – do you have a link about that stuff? Sounds interesting.
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:38 am
Bemused,
You statement is based on a few key false assumptions. I have never said that I am a model parent. I have never said I have model children. I outlined the principles I follow. I never judged your parenting or how you live your life.
As for being judgemental. How is saying that I am wrong not judgemental?
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:39 am
SK @ 3570
Maybe I got the wrong impression but to me it came across as a proclamation of your superior parenting of your superior children.
Apologies if I got that wrong.
by bemused on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:40 am
Can’t ask for more than that. Well done old chap. There should be far more of that spirit shown here.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:42 am
bemused,
Apology accepted. For my part I promise never to discuss parenting again.
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:43 am
What A joke!
Do you Bludgers want to hear something absolutely hysterical?
I have received a newsletter from my MP Alex Hawke in Mitchell. The standout headline on the front page is that “Mitchell Misses Out on NBN”.
Listen to this; Hawke goes on to say “Over the years I have been contacted by many residents and small business owners from these areas who are constantly frustrated by the lack of broadband connection”.
HELLO!
Alex, in case you didn’t know, your policy by Tony Abbott is to ROLL-BACK the NBN.
Footnote to Conroy and PM Gillard:
Hey, I live in Mitchell and I want the NBN – like NOW!
I’m glad I voted for Barry O’Farrell in the State, and I most certainly intend to continue to do so.
by Centre on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:45 am
Centre,
I happen to know there is currently a job in the LIBERAL Gold Coast Council to forster, promote and project manage the commercial opportunities of the NBN to businesses and govt on the Gold Coast.
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:47 am
SK @ 3573
That’s going a bit far I think.
It is probably a bit OT here but well within the boundaries that PB roams.
by bemused on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:48 am
Interesting insight from Mike Kelly about Tony Abbott’s ‘Carbon Tax’ stunts:
by C@tmomma on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:49 am
0PT @ 3375, Your comment @ 3184 had already set me off – Pope yes, lovely lines and true, but Milton said had it all a century before, particularly
“True Liberty Is When Free-born Men Speak Free!”
John Milton’s Areopagitica,
Crying freedom for the press,
Back in 17th century England,
Resisted monarchy’s excess.
His tract was a mighty weapon
In democracy’s progress.
We are the beneficiaries
Of his most eloquent address.
But we ‘free-born’ were complicit,
As we watched and acquiesced
While that freedom was abused
With a brazen shamelessness.
We encouraged one man’s ambition
To buy up, control, possess
As property our thoughts in print,
And we applauded his success.
We shared profits with this behemoth
Who then destroyed our happiness
And published his news of our world,
Writ as he commanded it expressed.
As another mogul joins him,
Surely it’s time to re-possess
What has now become a licence
To break all rules and decency transgress.
Our precious freedom so perverted
Has caused democracy’s regress.
Let’s use our laws while we still can,
Redeem ourselves, and truly free the press.
by PatriciaWA on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:49 am
bemused,
In the immortal words of Albo, I’d rather fight Tories.
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:49 am
bemused/sk
Appreciate you both come to an understanding. We can all agree that life is a complicated beast.
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:49 am
coming
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:49 am
leone – thanks for those snippets. I’d rather social workers did the job instead of religious groups for simply those reasons.
C@tmomma – Well done Craig Emmerson re the DOHA decision at the G20 and of course it won’t get the same headlines as yesterday. We’ll get a small mention then Abbott will follow to say Labor is failing and he will do better.
MarrickvilleMauler is right – we no longer need the MSM. Apart from the early papers everything else today will come more instantly from twitter. We can check the links directly to the appropriate sites and not waste time watching the news bulletins.
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:49 am
As per BK’s earlier notification, Remember Combet at the NPC today at 12.30 pm
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:50 am
BH
Last night is a case in point. Within seconds of the earth tremor here in Vic, it was confirmed throughout the twittersphere, facebook, blogs and then on Sky and ABC. Do i need to buy the paper in the morning to tell me so?
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:52 am
BH,
I was having a chat with my other half last night about the press and thinking at some point there is a possibility of a news vacuum, I asked him how news travels the country in PNG in places where there is no papers, radio, tv. He said the people pass the message fast and then take their time to correct it or add to it. But it does work.
Kinda like the forerunner to twitter and other social media!
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:54 am
While on the topic of NBN, here is a good article discussing the limitations of 4G that is the Noalitions answer to the NBN.
4G LTE networks to be limited by spectrum availability
I love the portability of wireless but if there is an attempt to use wireless everywhere, even when portability is not needed, then the whole thing will collapse with overload and be useless for everyone.
Spectrum is a very limited resource and needs to be treated like any other scarce resource and not over-exploited.
by bemused on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:55 am
BH
I should add that what has been lacking in the msm, is true investigative journalism. Of course the main reason is that vested interests that control the msm have no interest in being investigated for any of their practices. A recent illustration is the pokies issue. Companies that advertise in the msm have a vested interest in the pokies issue not being challenged.
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:55 am
@bemused/3586
Unfortunately for most Coalition nutters including the media think that Paul Budde is biased, and will go unheard.
by zoidlord on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:56 am
Centre se d the news email to sen conror or albo good for question time
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:56 am
Look at the image of Packer here
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-20/news-limited-moves-to-buy-consolidated-media/4081300
Chosen from the photo files with real care to ensure that people got to see what a slimy bastard he is.
I don’t say it very often but it should be said today
“well done ABC – that’s worth my 8 cents today”
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:56 am
Hahahahaha
Space K, that is, again hysterical!
So where is the confidence within that Liberal Gold Coast Council that the
is going to win the next election?
Why bother employing anyone relating to the NBN if the
is going to stop building it?
But the
is leading in the polls by a staggering margin, he will win won’t he which also means a halt to the NBN?
Effing POPPYCOCK
The only thing Abbott might win is a free ticket to the zoo. And the NBN is here to stay and be completed.
by Centre on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:56 am
bemused,
One of the assumptions by news people is that each of the technologies are equally viable, just cheaper/more expensive.
I think more could be done communications wise in correcting this fallacy.
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:57 am
It must just be about time for some MOAR!
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:58 am
victoria
Twitter and other media were exchanging info on the tremors and we all had a pretty good handle on it within half an hout.
What disappointed me was the ABC (AM program) and the Age (didn’t read SMH) which overstated what had happened. “Felt all over Victoria” and stuff like that.
by lizzie on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:58 am
TH
That image is indeed a slimey one. And speaking of the ABC, it is vitally important that it is strengthened. Our democracy will depend on it more than ever. Of course, a broom needs to go through the place first.
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:59 am
You know that
I know that
Abbott knows that
That won’t stop him using it to claim savings through scrapping it.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:59 am
BK
Yes indeed!
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:59 am
Centre,
Here is the job description for that job, if you really want to laugh: http://www.goldcoast.qld.gov.au/employmentweb/job_details.aspx?pid=3541
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Sk
For exampe the press said nothing about tne melboune tremor last night till some time,
But well twitter was out with it
And lizzie was writing a post about some else, and it was included that quck
I glanced at a paper this morning there it was
I though well so thats old news.
Once no one would of known till this morning
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 12:01 pm