Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
@davidwh/3690
I have no issues with businesses, but it’s about time they give employees and potential employees fair go. They all have a good and easy way of getting people the cheapest price possible to employment (especially through such measures as WorkChoices).
by zoidlord on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:00 pm
deblonay
It’s govt under Correa has a good record of supressing critical media…scarcely a good match for Assange, one would have thought.
by zoomster on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Indeed. And how clever it was that he maintained his position with a reappointment at the last critical moment of Howard board control. All the Howard appointees are now gone except him and he, of course, is the most pernicious influence.
by joe2 on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Yes, but don’t be tempted to vote for ‘him’ if they give him the job back. People fell for that in Victoria with Baillieu – and his government is more right-wing and ideological than Kennett – he is making 180 degree changes to laws he supported in opposition, and gutting environmental and planning laws and processes. Mining in national parks is the latest in his war on the environment – and he doesn’t even have to pander to a shooters party (other than the nats). He is also cutting funding is a very ideological way – targeting any progressive funding whilst boosting spending that benefits mates. He has also just rezoned a heap of metro fringe land without any recommendation to do so other than the land is owned by lib donors and members.
The problem is Liberal ‘moderates’ are in few and factionally weak and the right wing sociopathic nutters are strong, rampant and taking their inspiration from the far-right of the US Republican/Tea Party. The Libs are the party of the angry white male now – a good thing to be in uncertain times. Turnbull needs to go an set up a true liberal party – the Liberal Democrats. In one of my fantasies (I have many of them) a few moderates defect with him to give them lower house party status – and then he could form a coalition with Labor in exchange for the deputy PM-ship (or even the top job). This fantasy is an old one, and redundant because our remarkable PM has been able to get all of her progressive legislative agenda through a hung parliament. I’d still love to see him form a new party. Do you think a Turnbull ‘middle’ party would take more votes from Labor, Libs or Greens? Unfortunately, I think it’d hurt Labor and the Greens more in the redneck states who’ll decide the next election – the angry irrational ignorant white male vote and partisan media are overwhelming in Qld and NSW, and they are going to vote for the angriest, least rational, least informed, whitest male candidate we have ever had for the PM job.
by sustainable future on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:01 pm
um Latika… you’re a journalist…. you do know that don’t you? yes? great. so you do know you are meant to fact check your work and confirm your sources? yes? then why spread such obviously incorrect tripe? oh it’s from Fairfax. and who do you work for? the ABC? yes I thought so…..
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:01 pm
guytaur
apart from the other two times they were in Tasmania?
by zoomster on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:02 pm
mm
Latika disappoints more and more each day
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:03 pm
ABC justificatin for having Ackerman on Insiders
Thank you for your email regarding Insiders.
Insiders panellists are drawn from a wide variety of media outlets and backgrounds. The ABC is satisfied that they represent a diverse range of view and recognises that all Insiders panellists have their supporters and detractors.
Cheers
Erin Vincent
by Lyne Lady on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:03 pm
They have tourism – tourism is the Greens industry mantra for everything. Notwithstanding that it is essentially a low value industry that highly economically exposed, seasonal, and generally survives through being low wage. Tourism being the answer to everything suits Greens biggest donor too.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:04 pm
[Australian Media @aus_media
News Limited trims divisions to five in restructure aimed at print and digital future http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/news-limited-trims-divisions-to-five-in-restructure-aimed-at-print-and-digital-future/story-e6frg996-1226402831203
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:05 pm
William that NE result can’t be correct surely?
by davidwh on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:05 pm
vic.
i don’t really blame latika. as a relative newbie, she clearly hasn’t had a decent mentor around her to show her the ropes.
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:06 pm
zoomster
Name when the Greens were in government. e.g. the Accord to support Premeir Field was like the one signed by Bandt to support Gillard.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Utter f’ing bullshit.
by joe2 on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Why not?
by blackburnpseph on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:07 pm
davidwh
polls are done where it suits the agenda, it would have been done majority in the tamworth area
it was on the local news just then
by Meguire Bob on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:07 pm
“Get out of the way and give us an election” – Hockey
Today’s MPI
Mr Truss (Leader of the Nationals)
“The adverse impact on fishing and coastal communities of the Government’s marine reserve declarations.”
Why does Truss get so many of these? It’s so deflating when I see that name again.
by triton on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:08 pm
The ABC might be satisfied I am not!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:09 pm
William @ 3698
The numbers do not add up to 100% – are the remainder undecided?
Also, what is the MoE on a local poll that size?
by blackburnpseph on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Local realtech spokesperson said that 70% of the 532 were down around the Tamworth area
i wish they could be more fairer in do the whole new england area
by Meguire Bob on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:10 pm
(d of the government regulating to control the media, which is tut-tuttingly politically incorrect, or legislating to prescribe truth in political debate, which just burdens the judiciary, how about doing nothing?
Stand aside and let the two billionaire right-wing ideologues, Rupert Murdoch and Gina Rinehart, gobble up the australian commerical MSM and turn it into monochrome wallpaper. People are already running away in horror.)
Susan i think your on to so ething here
And with the uk happenings lets see.
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:10 pm
@latikambourke: Attorney General Nicola Roxon will hold a press conference at 1330 on the High Court decision.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:10 pm
done i mean not down
by Meguire Bob on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:10 pm
david
Centre/right has absolutely no meaning in relation to the current Liberal Party. It is much more appropriate to Labor the ALP a centre/right party. They believe in and have enacted the legislation that has defined the successful mixed market economy which we enjoy. Yes they believe in a role for an active government and regulation, but by and large they let the market get on with it in most areas of life. Anyone who could describe them as any way socialist is engaging in self-satire.
The Greens are pretty centre/left. They certainly believe in market mechanisms for many environmental issues, but also are nothing you could seriously describe as socialist. There could be a few Trots and Communists still around somewhere, but the real hard left simply does not exist in this country in any meaningful way.
By contrast the equivalent loonies on the right run your party. The Libs have gone off the reservation. There is nothing centrist about a party that denies science, denies economics, trashes any convention and tradition that stands in their way, seeks to destroy trust in the economy and the very institution of government itself, and dog whistles every bigotted and destructive idea they can think of. Centrist my arse. As Zoomster noted the real tragedy for the nation is that the decent people in the Liberal party give quiet assent to their craziness and destruction in return for a chance to share in the spoils of a partisan victory. A fittingly hollow victory for hollow people.
To your credit you have identified Abbott as a threat to our country. You simply need to make the next logical step that only a hopelessly compromised party could allow him anywhere near the leadership. Abbott is just a symptom, the real rot goes much deeper. You can choose to quietly assent to that cancer doing enormous damage to our nation, or you can fight it by standing with the ALP. Anything else is just feeding the beast that has engulfed the Libs and will do the same to the country if given the chance.
by ratsak on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:11 pm
@newmatilda: Barry O’Farrell mauls labour in NSW with “Worse than Workchoices” cuts to WorkCover, union busting laws. http://t.co/Vub8ldFT #newmatilda
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Doing a poll about New England but not in New England would be mighty silly.
Tamworth is the largest population centre in NE so no doubt a large number of pollees came from there.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:11 pm
ABC via LL
The trouble is that Akerman is incapable of being objective, unlike the more left-leaning panellists, who, despite their leaning, seem pretty even-handed. They are regularly critical of the government, but Akerman is never anything else.
by triton on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Even more interesting as Windsor’s base has been Tamworth and Torbay’s in Armidale.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Combet: Did I anticipate Tony Abbott would be a gutless opportunist. Yes.
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:13 pm
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:13 pm
By and large the CT debate is too hard for me to understand but I did understand the following from the most recent edition of the Economist. (Page 11 for those who want to read it for themselves.)
In its Leader – entitled “The Vanishing North”, commenting about the unrelenting thaw in the Arctic ice cap and the glaciers in Greenland of the last decades, it says – in relation to possible responses to this change……….
“Some scientists argue that the perils are so immediate that mankind should consider geoengineering……………(however)…………”
“A slower but safer approach would be to price greenhouse-gas emissions, preferably through a CARBON TAX (my emphasis), which would encourage the adoption of cleaner technologies.
“That shift would be costly, but the costs of inaction are likely to be larger.
As I said, the science baffles me, but when the Economist comes out with simple and straight-forward language such as this, I just wonder the intelligence of those who refute this kind of position.
by Tricot on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:14 pm
sk
Snap!
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:14 pm
I hope that won’t clash with the News announcement.
by triton on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:14 pm
balckburnpserph
yes Tamworth is the biggest city but
but its in the smaller area of the electorate
the bigger area is torbays northern tablelands it has more people in it then the tamworth area
by Meguire Bob on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:14 pm
@latikambourke: Yup legal geeks, let me know if you want something specific asked. RT @acaderama: @latikambourke will you be tweeting AG’s press conference?
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Jessica Wright asks Combet a question delivered in boganesque style.
Answer:
“Yes, I DID anticipate Mr Abbott would be gutless and negative. It’s why he is so disliked around the country!”
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:15 pm
ajm
Thanks
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:15 pm
interesting words from 3rd largest shareholder in Fairfax. he might be interested in an offer for the metro mastheads from someone seeking influence.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-20/ryan-stop-press/4081194
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:15 pm
triton
The news limited announcement is 1:45 last I heard
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:15 pm
The margin of error on the ReachTel polls is about 4.2%, but question marks remain over the precision of their methodology. Nonetheless, I don’t see any reason not to see the poll as evidence that Windsor has no chance of beating Torbay. Oakeshott’s defeat was already a given. The numbers I’ve provided don’t add up to 100 because I didn’t include all the results – you can follow the links for more detail.
by William Bowe on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Have they ever thought lookinng after fishin g long term
Helps this generations and those to follow
Its a selfish attitude of us, me now, we must have that will in tne long term ruin
The cou try
As said we closed down our scallop i dustry for some years, its back and bigger
Frommemory most fishermen agreed.
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:16 pm
If windsor gets over 60% of the northern tablelands vote
he will likely win the election
by Meguire Bob on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:17 pm
@watermelon_man: So, five News Ltd divisions eh, what is the ABC one being called?
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:18 pm
There is no way windsor will get over a 21% swing against him
by Meguire Bob on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:19 pm
#fakeAbbott# says:
Combet keeps calling me a gutless political opportunist for trying to scare people witless.
He is so rude.
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:19 pm
I really can’t see either Windsor or Oakie holding on. The ALP owe those two men a massive massive debt.
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Tony Winsor is toast. He probably will not stand at the next election. It couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
by Gauss on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:20 pm
THIS is why I love Combet – PJK would be proud of that one.
I’d love to see him as PM one day (& before Bushfire and others attack I’ll say “Sometime in the distant future in an orderly transition marking the 12th year of the Gillard government”).
by sustainable future on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:20 pm
Well, their electorates owe them a massive debt. Australia owes them a massive debt. Whether Labor owes them a massive debt is contestible.
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:20 pm
windsor will likely get a 10-15% against him
by Meguire Bob on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:20 pm