Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
mauler
There’s nothing on austlii about it yet.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:52 pm
poroti. i know its not about PC. but my comment was in regards to how i think it would be beaten up by the press.
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:52 pm
blackburnpseph @ 3787
I agree with you about the independent, it would be doubtful whether there will be anohter one like a windsor or torbay
also on the federal election , what happens if things do turn against the coalition would the electorate bother with torbay if it looks like labor will retain government
by Meguire Bob on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:52 pm
OzPol Tragic, weren’t you working on an adaptation of ‘Land Downunder’ for Lynchpin? I’ve got a draft for her of ‘Working Class Girl’ and I can’t find anywhere to send it unless it’s to the http://www.lynchpin.com.au/ which is a male trio. I’ve always thought of Lynchpin as a woman, an expatriate Aussie living in the States. Don’t ask me why!
by PatriciaWA on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:52 pm
vic, no, not about KRudd
by The Finnigans on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:53 pm
guytaur – are you saying that all Greens are atheists? I’m sure my Churchgoing Greeny neighbours would be displeased to know the Greens are against that policy as their kids go to a Christian School, with Chaplain provided by the Govt. Remember the policy includes non religious counsellors who do good work.
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:53 pm
bbp@3797, I thought I heard this morning that roads funding is properly covered by legislation already (as one would hope).
As to school funding, the point I was making is that the decision today does not close the door to another, more soundly based, section 116 challenge.
The government (and George Williams) will be alert to that possibility.
by susan winstanley on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:54 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
@latikambourke have you read this? http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/fairfax-and-g20-visits-what-do-we-need.html
by The Finnigans on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:54 pm
The finns
I suggest you do. Not sure what el slacko is playing at lately
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:54 pm
poroti. my comment needed a sarcasm emoticon to go with it.
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Polling on torbay who isnt an officially running as an nat for new england at this point of time and saying he will win is too risky
by Meguire Bob on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:55 pm
@brittneykleyn: Journalists say the newsroom is silent as News Ltd staff hear of the company’s restructure via video link #newsltd
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Marrickvile Mauler
What is the truth that I have hidden and have forgotten where I put it? Is this in relation the debate over uncertainty in science we touched on from the other night? (Various links to this to Judith Curry, James Annan & Stephen Lewonowsky.)
BTW was it you who suggested I might be a member of the IPA or Lavoiser. No, but if I was, so what.
by Gauss on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:57 pm
poroti – have I got the wrong end of the stick on this Chaplain business in schools?
I thought RE classes were disbanded yonks ago and that the Chaplains were there as counsellors only for kids who needed somebody to go to with personal problems if they didn’t want to speak with their teacher.
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:57 pm
mauler
Oops sorry it is there: http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/2012/23.html
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Narns
I’m thinking they will not so much go “ruff ruff” but give long mournful howls of “Nooooooooooo”
I can hear them already
by poroti on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:58 pm
BH @ 3805
Perhaps your neighbours ought to become better acquainted with the policies of the party for whom they have been voting.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:58 pm
why the smurf is the ABC live streaming a News Ltd corporate restructure announcement????!!!
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 1:58 pm
mm
As tweeted by someone earlier the ABC needs to know the new name it is going to be operating under.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:00 pm
middle man
I’m over on Apac
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Thr finns
Have you read her tweets starting about an hour ago?
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:00 pm
I read it in the paper – 25.6%
I heard it on the radio – 62.9%
Don’t know – 5.9%
Refused to respond – 5.6%
by Aguirre on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:00 pm
I am sticking with 24. Going to rely on bludgers for QT update while watching Williams
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:01 pm
I’m on http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:02 pm
@LatikaQT: Wakka opens #SenateQT. Yest you said no last minute changes but do you still really mean that?
@LatikaQT: Penny Wong says Govt’s made it’s position clear. #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Yellow for Babyface Dutton.
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:02 pm
BK. I just saw it on the banner on the ABC news page. I’m at work so i can’t look at the box.
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Did Swan just withdraw something without being asked to withdraw? Bit odd.
by Aguirre on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:03 pm
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:03 pm
While I’m certainly not sympathetic to Windsor’s (conservative) politics, and disagree with hiom on same sex marriage, he stands out as a man of integrity and compassion, with whom one could have a civilised exchnage of opinions. I’ve no doubt that he really is trying to do the right thing as he sees it, even when he’s wrong.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Very sad that the school chaplaincy program wasn’t ruled unconstitutional on religious grounds.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:04 pm
bbp – I think I’ll enlighten them. I don’t think I’ve mentioned the death duty issue to them either. Will do it this weekend. 2 Labor voters coming up
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:04 pm
@LatikaQT: Wakka with a supp. Gets directly to the Windsor LPG changes announced yesterday. #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:05 pm
BK. my comment was why are they showing it at all…. i just don’t get why the ABC does some of this stuff. of what importance is a News Ltd restructure to anyone that isn’t an employee. i mean did they live stream restructures of the auto’s or airlines? its shows a bizarre focus on their own industry as real news.
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:05 pm
mm
Its called media navel gazing. has been happening forever.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:07 pm
middle man
Is it because their main source of editorial direction is under threat?
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Gina knows her onions – radio more effective than newspapers and New England has the Sydney networked shockjocks in their ears.
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:08 pm
@LatikaQT: Further Supp – Wakka – he’s asking about Tony Windsor’s primary support polling and whether the LPG concessions are to appease him.
@LatikaQT: Brandis POOing and is in a tremendous huff with Penny Wong. #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:08 pm
its the sort of thing the govt should be reviewing in my opinion.
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:09 pm
BH
As far as I know they are doing both. NSW is/was trying to get ethics classes in as an alternative for those that do not attend the classes as currently they cannot do any meaningful work during the RE classes. I’m pretty sure they are not called RE anymore but they are the same sort of thing.
by poroti on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:09 pm
by Aguirre on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Why is ABC showing a News limited advertisement? And why didn’t they show the press conference by fairfax journos yesterday? Says more about the ABC than anything Mark Scott could say…
by liyana on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-transport-shakeup-plan-for-single-deck-metrostyle-trains-and-second-harbour-crossing-and-20120620-20ngm.html#ixzz1yIr0T200
Well, as my first act as Emperor Laocoon I, I hereby absolutely and iron-clad commit to making every one of my subjects a billionaire. However, I do not have a set timetable
Politicians might wonder why there is a degree of cynicism…
by Laocoon on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Anything re the News announcements yet?
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:11 pm
BH – I hope you weren’t taking those figures seriously. I just made them up.
by Aguirre on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Liyana
ABC24 is showing the full News Ltd presentation by Kim Williams
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:12 pm
@LatikaQT: Furner with a Dixer to Evans – how are you helping families with meeting the cost of living? #SenateQT
@LatikaQT: Chris Evans could wrap this up in 3 words – CASHFORYOU! #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Weird. Kim Williams sounds like Bobby Santamaria. Same nodding, same strangled delivery.
by susan winstanley on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:12 pm
@LatikaQT: Furner with a supp to the Dixer – how are you supporting pensioner pay their utility bills? #SenateQT
@SimonPalan: #Breaking Kim Williams confirms News Limited has purchased Business Spectator and The Eureka Report.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:14 pm
BK
News Td cutting their operations from 19 to 5 . Williams says there will be redunancies, but cannot say how many at this stage
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 2:14 pm