Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Bronwyn Bishop was wearing a fur cape style thing around her shoulders yesterday in the HoR. Must be trending!
OC – can Newman (Qld) stop affiliation of Unions and ALP? Isn’t that a right of association?
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:02 pm
The fact that the Libs couldn’t win Lindsay must still be source of intense pain for you.
by Mithrandir on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Conspiracy theories? There is nothing theoretical about the links between Ashby, Brough, Doane, McArdle and Pyne. It’s all on the public record.
by Lynchpin on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:05 pm
@profsarahj: 1/2 Janet Albrechtson: it’s undemocratic for human rights NGOs to put their views to the govt. Sending a letter is “galling abuse”.
@profsarahj: 2/2 is JA suggesting it’s anti democratic to challenge parliamentary laws like social security cuts … or the carbon tax? Mining tax?
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:06 pm
The Blimp of Dawson offers himself to Burke as a sacrifice.
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:06 pm
victoria
He’s way overdue for one isn’t he? The last one must be at least two QTs ago.
by triton on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:07 pm
I think qlanders should leave while they can
What next
One thing i have learned i will never vote to get rid of the upper house
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Down does the Blimp!
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:08 pm
my say
Hear Hear
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:09 pm
by Dee on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:09 pm
The “I’m A Smurf Headed Premier of QLD Bill 2012″.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:10 pm
I would think think constituents would be ver proud of mr bradbury
His vote can only increase
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:10 pm
An incendiary Albo!!!
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:10 pm
@watermelon_man: Were all Coalition members frightened by the Environment while in a pram?
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:11 pm
I and probably loads of others tweeted Albo awhile ago to read out Hawke’s letter. Good on him – he did.
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Another QT without SSSO
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Albanese won QT today on his own.
by susan winstanley on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:12 pm
sw
I agree with your assessment.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Now retired oh thinks albanese is brillant
Thinks if julia ever says thats it
Albanese for pm
Of course also says, great christian bros, boy
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:13 pm
So Newscorp has got permanent representation on the ABC via ALan Kohler.
Nice effort.
They can call it the Murdock minute.
by bluegreen on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Was that the one centre mentioned today
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Not surprised to see that the NSW envoroment minsiter is wearing a fur coat to work. She probably thinks that killing animals for their fur encourages them to breed.
This is Robyn Parker. You might remember her. The minister who thought that logging in koala habitat areas would protect koalas. Her exact words – ‘Logging protects koalas.’
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-news/logging-protects-koalas-environment-minister-robyn-parker-says/story-e6freuzi-1226178903729
The minister who forgot to tell the people of Newcastle about two leaks of toxic chemicals from the Orica plant at Kooragang Isaland.
http://www.theherald.com.au/news/local/news/general/robyn-parker-faces-no-confidence-motion-over-orica-spill/2367163.aspx
The same minister who couldn’t give a straight answer to a question about the removal of iconic fig trees in the Newcastle CBD.
http://www.nswalp.com/media/news/robyn-parker-couldn-t-give-a-fig/
For all this and more Fibber O’Barrell rewarded Ms Parker by refusing to sack her from his cabinet.
http://www.nswalp.com/media/news/o-farrell-rewards-parker-s-failure/
Maybe he keeps her on because she makes the National turkies in his government look almost capable in comparison.
by leone on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:15 pm
george with a ripper!
http://tinyurl.com/6lro8qu
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:15 pm
BK
Oh the humanity
by poroti on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Hockeysplanations.
by Aguirre on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Lynchpin and William! Yes please, I’d like to email you. I’d be glad to send it and have you give it the once over. I can’t sing, so the chance to hear anyone even strum something to my lines would be great. Mind you, strictly speaking, they’re not all mine, are they!
by PatriciaWA on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Well actually his vote could decrease too, which is most likely what will happen at the next election if Gillard is leader.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Aguirre – big fail. I wanted straight 60/40 but on second thought I’ll take 60 ALP 20 Greens 10 LNP and 10 Indies. Sounds good to me!
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Actually, back in the real world, it is FAIRFAX that is considering buying out Kohler’s BusinessSpectator email newsletter.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:19 pm
An MPI from Truzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Time for a nap now.
by triton on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Some say the Bali 9 were mules.I say that anyone who tries to smuggle drugs in a country that has hanging for drug crimes are D-O-N-K-E-Y-S and they deserve everything coming to them.It’s all very well to feel sorry for the donkeys but we must not forget the damage they do to society and in particular to our young
by gapnel on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:21 pm
ShowsOn@3978
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Business-Spectator-News-Ltd-Alan-Kohler-AIBM-Busin-pd20120620-VF7P2?OpenDocument&src=sph
Which planet are you living on?
by ShiftyPhil on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:23 pm
the email newsletter is the Eureka Report. Business Spectator is his online business news site.
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:23 pm
vic
looks as though the focus groups have warned them off ssos and abbott’s screeching – now he just sits at his blank desk and nods…
by Lyne Lady on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:25 pm
and news just bought them both.
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Today is The United Nations’ (UN) World Refugee Day.
http://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/un/world-refugee-day
Refugee Week Australia is currently underway being celebrated from Sunday 17 June to Saturday 23 June.
http://www.refugeeweek.org.au/
by Pegasus on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Sitting behind Truzzzzzzz is Pruneface who seems to have modelled his hairdo on Stan Laurel.
http://ts1.mm.bing.net/images/thumbnail.aspx?q=4539879824622528&id=63bd0ff0544370007e72b49fe208823d
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:27 pm
…yawn of the day award.
by Lynchpin on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:28 pm
some interesting tweets from apparant Fiberals
make of them what you will:
Waxing Gibberish @waxinggibberish
There’s no point having an election if @TonyAbbottMHR is only half arsed about fighting this #Green madness #auspol #NOcarbontax #NO20RET
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Waxing Gibberish @waxinggibberish
Liberals commit to a policy as dumb as the #carbontax http://bit.ly/Mea9QQ c’mon @TonyAbbottMHR make a stand against this stupidity #auspol
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by Mick Collins on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:28 pm
Truzzzzz carrying on like a Tennessee Luddite.
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:29 pm
@BH/3950
Must be the gun party from NSW that gave her the clothes.
by zoidlord on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Greens Party media release on World Refugee Day and refugees:
http://greensmps.org.au/content/media-releases/world-refugee-day-figures-separate-australian-myths-reality
by Pegasus on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Lyne Lady – The SSO motions stopped right after Thomson voted with the Opposition in a resulting gag motion during the debate.
There have been none since then. I think that’s what it is. Too embarrassing after the run from chamber incident by Abbott & Pyne to try and not “accept” his “tainted” vote. If they had abstained without leaving the chamber and been more dignified then, might still be putting up SSO motions now.
by Leroy on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:32 pm
More on Sydney rail announcements…cruising for a fight with the federal government…
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-transport-shakeup-plan-for-single-deck-metrostyle-trains-and-second-harbour-crossing-20120620-20ngm.html#ixzz1yJCEcabg
by Laocoon on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:33 pm
That North West Rail Link O Farrell has said should replace Fed Government funded one.
Now going to stop at Chatswood and is not even going to be owned by the public.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-transport-shakeup-plan-for-single-deck-metrostyle-trains-and-second-harbour-crossing-20120620-20ngm.html
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:33 pm
“750 kg of fish harvested per square METRE” in Thailand says Truzzzzzzzzzzz.
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Laocoon
Snap!
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:34 pm
They’ll be back. The opposition just wanted to concentrate on the carbon tax this week.
Also Gillard hasn’t been here.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Truzz
All they get from the govt is compensation….our govt gave them compensation too….Er, but, we shouldn’t have hurt them to start with, but at least we gave them compensation, which this govt is also doing…
by zoomster on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:36 pm