Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Unsustainable!
by Dee on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:37 pm
http://theconversation.edu.au/refugee-populations-across-the-globe-the-facts-7557
by Pegasus on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:37 pm
That’s a very dense fish
by davidwh on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:38 pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/19/marijuana-legalization-ma_n_1608950.html
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:39 pm
davidwh
That is not very complimentary of the Leader of the Country Party.
by Lynchpin on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:40 pm
In Chris Mitchell land a headline saying “40% increase in rates” is better than saying (2.4% or $30 per year). and he then makes it free of the paywall. I wait for shockjocks, abbott and ABC to report the same “40% increase”.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/carbon-tax/carbon-tax-pushes-brisbane-city-council-rates-up-40pc/story-fndttws1-1226402804126
bias? what bias?
by sustainable future on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:40 pm
zoomster, when you translate for him it almost makes Truss look like he’s not a complete ignoramous. Almost…
by ratsak on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:40 pm
by leone on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Lynchpin we Libs only tolerate the Nats but we don’t like them.
by davidwh on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:42 pm
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2161647/Is-really-just-fly-Swarms-cyborg-insect-drones-future-military-surveillance.html
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Tony Burke very impressive with his detailed knowledge of his portfolio. And very fluent.
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:43 pm
mission = $$$$$
by joe2 on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:44 pm
As a matter of some interest to the Fairfax/News issues: I’ve just been contacted by an internet consultancy representative, offering to provide services to optimise my business’s on-line reach. That’s all by the by, but in the proposal they sent me, the first graph detailed where people get information from and how trustworthy they find it.
It’s from a Neilsen poll, and the comparison between internet and print media is very interesting:
Preferred Information Source: Internet 53%, Newspapers 15%
Main Source of News: Internet 30%, Newspapers 18%
Most Trusted Source of Information: Internet 28%, Newspapers 21%
Best Access to Opinions: Internet 52%, Newspapers 14%
On those figures alone, you’d have to say the print media has already lost the war. They can carry on about how ‘reputable’ they are, but they’ve already been overtaken on that score.
by Aguirre on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:44 pm
So woz I right? Is there now a permanent Newsltd slot on the ABC nightly news?
by bluegreen on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:45 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4081726.html
Interesting article in the rise of irrationalism
by Leroy on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:48 pm
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/chaplains-safe-despite-high-court-ruling-roxon-20120620-20n2d.html
What the hell is wrong with the Labor party?
Why? WHY?
Pathetic and weak. Anyone who blames teh evil media/mining barons/whatever for the woes of this feeble party is a fool. Their problems stem first and foremost from their own unprincipled, cowardly nature.
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:48 pm
zoidlord – Wouldn’t put it past her to be happy with that policy. All that was missing was the foxhead.
How can the LNP get away with lying to recreational fishermen about the boundaries of the Marine Parks and get away with it. More amazement that they do it so blazenly.
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:48 pm
bg. i’d like to see the ASX 200 chart superimposed over the news ltd corporate logo.
by middle man on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:49 pm
YAY, I got a question asked in QT (refer to post at 11.45am).
And my favourite polly (Albo) answered it
Who says they don’t read us here at PB
by Centre on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:49 pm
It’s more a question of what legislation (inc federal legislation), and UN International Conventions to which Australia is signatory (inc ILO) stop his from doing it.
Joh BP either tried to or said he would legislate in the same areas, and didn’t.
Here are a few references on Freedom of Association Hope it helps.
My memories are that there are international protocols/ long-standing legislation guaranteeing “freedom of affiliation” – in the UK, that freedom was established during the early-mid C19, and was extended to Qld under the Act of Separation. I do recall the ILO’s charter (Oz is a foundation signatory) was believed to stand in the way – leading to the anti-UN hysteria in far right splinter groups.
Five fundamental freedoms
Fair Work Australia’s definition Freedom of association
Australian Laws of Freedom of Association
Google Australian freedom of political affiliation and several references appear: Law specialist points to flaws in political donations bill
This reference is quite long, but very detailed Griffiths, Leanne — “The Implied Freedom of Political Communication: The State of the Law Post Coleman and Mulholland” [2005] JCULawRw 5; (2005) 12 James Cook University Law Review 93
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:50 pm
It has been a masterful performance form Tony Burke. His best yet, I’d say.
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Yeah, the court ruling was a great opportunity to end the program and put the $200 million on the budget bottom line.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:51 pm
PINK BATTS?
by zoomster on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Article by Brad Chilcott, National Director of the Welcome to Australia organisation:
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/ipad/chilcott-asylum-seekers-as-pawns/story-fn6br25t-1226399215556?t=dXNlcmlkPTQ0MzM0LGVtYWlsaWQ9ODM4
by Pegasus on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Yep
Kohler himself has signed a long-term contract to NewsLtd. I’d say the ABC is snookered and Newsltd now run the business section of the ABC news.
by bluegreen on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:53 pm
any idea why janelle saffin continually gets a guernsey during qt? is it to placate her because she is a rudd supporter?
by Lyne Lady on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:53 pm
PB is just like a mirror database of the federal parliament. Remember you heard it here first even before the real politicians in Canberra thought about it.
Can I be Turnbull please?
I nominate BG as Adam Bandt and Bemused as Rudd.
by davidwh on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:53 pm
I wonder if Newsltd would buy out Crikey, just to shut it down. It can’t be worth very much.
by bluegreen on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:54 pm
Oh ffs….’if they were really serious about overfishing, they’d ban seafood…’
by zoomster on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Gauss #3812: No I did not suggest you were a member of the Laviosier group. I referred to Lavoisier in the context of his execution by a bunch of ideologues who thought they had no need for scientists. Then, those styling themselves revolutionaries. Now, the elites who pose as anti anti-elitist and attack scientists for daring to know better than radio shock jocks. Why is someone calling him/herself Gauss on the anti-science side in this one ?
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:56 pm
um one too many anti-s in my 4029 there …
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:57 pm
BG 4027 what a horrible thought. Labor would be cactus if PB went over to the dark side. They would lose 60% of their support base.
by davidwh on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:57 pm
I’m not in favour of the Chaplains program, but if you’re talking about looking weak, this a black letter law HC ruling based on funding, that turns out to be relatively easy to rectify.
If that was used as a pretext to abandon a policy, any policy, the govt earlier said they’d support, that is what would look weak, as well as opportunistic in the worst way.
by Leroy on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:58 pm
Centre Posted Wednesday, June 20, 2012 at 3:49 pm | Permalink
YAY, I got a question asked in QT (refer to post at 11.45am).
And my favourite polly (Albo) answered it
Who says they don’t read us here at PB
See i new that was you, , centre
May be some one here sent the link
Or copied and pasted it to some one
But how did he get his hands on the flyer
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:58 pm
davidwh
OK, you can be Turnbull.
Who would I be?
by Lynchpin on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:58 pm
@BG/4027
Maybe it already is, you just don’t know it yet….
by zoidlord on Jun 20, 2012 at 3:58 pm
Lynchpin I see you as one of the more rational and intelligent Labor MP’s. Depending on sex (no pun intended) either Roxon or Combet.
by davidwh on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Davidwh
by Gecko on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:01 pm
You’re right in the sense that the true weakness was not scrapping the whole program as soon as they got into power. We have Lord be Praised Rudd for that one.
However, letting it stand now instead of using this opportunity to scrap it (or, better, fundamentally reform it to remove the religious component) is pathetic and contrary to progressive values. The whole program offends the notion of separation of church and state, and proves false the comfortable assumption Australians often make that our vague personal protections in the Constitution are somehow ‘safer’ than express protections.
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:01 pm
This guy’s wife was my first girlfriend when I was in primary school.
True story.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:03 pm
Patrick Bateman – why is Chaplain/Counsellor policy unprincipled and cowardly? Doesn’t Labor work for all the community and not just part of it. The school is the one to choose which person will take the position – Labor just gives them a choice.
Having worked for a long time with sexual and physical abuse associated with children I like the thought that a child can go to a person who is not a teacher. It leaves the hardworked teachers time to teach and the chaplain/counsellor to work on the problems. If it is a help to the kids and the school then what is wrong with the policy. It could prevent a lot of worse grief further down the line – a problem unsolved for a child leads to very expensive and painful experiences later in life.
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:03 pm
Well actually I think having a strong counseling service in all schools is a GOOD thing.
But there should be absolutely no religious affiliation required to be a school counselor. What people should need is a degree in counseling or social work, or something like that.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:05 pm
OzPol Tragic
It is interesting to compare the term ‘freedom of association’ with the actual approach interpretation by the major parities – the ALP approach to freedom of association was the protection of worker rights – assembly and the right to strike
The liberals, in particular the Howard Govt used the terms ‘freedom of association’ to activley encourage ‘not’ being in a union, indeed it could be argued that the freedom of association provisions were entered into the Workplace Relations Act 1996 for this narrow agenda given not transparent motives of the then Govt i.e. the strong dislike of the no ticket no start rules..
by Dr Fumbles McStupid on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Centre, its too hard to find your post. Can you re-post what you said?
by bluegreen on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Is fairfax testing its planned online paywall for the Age and SMH?
Last night I clicked on the link to an article and the screen that appeared was the standard “you must log in here to read article” wording.
It only happened once so I am supposing that their IT people are testing the paywall and somehow it went live for a short time.
by citizen on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:09 pm
The Government should never, ever give STATE schools the choice to give a person whose entire purpose in life is the promotion of a particular religion access to vulnerable children.
It fundamentally violates the notion of church and state, which you can read up on yourself given your apparent lack of familiarity with it.
And it’s hypocritical, because the day an atheist (or Muslim, or Hindu) is allowed to provide this fabulous “service” in a state school, hell (or non-religious equivalent) will freeze over.
If the goal of the program is to provide psychological and emotional support to school kids, non-denominational counsellors who are absolutely forbidden from including any religious element in their counselling should suffice.
If the goal of the program is to indoctrinate school children (which it plainly is, otherwise why use chaplains?), it is an abomination and should be cancelled immediately.
As a devout atheist, why should I run the risk of my children being preached to if my local state school has chosen a chaplain over a counsellor? Would religious types be ok if their kids were “counselled” by someone whose stated goal in life was the destruction of religion, for example?
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:09 pm
* separation of
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:10 pm
I hereby copyright the phrase “the Murdoch Minute” for the slot that Alan Kohler has on the ABC 7 o’clock news.
All royalties to be sent to PO Box BlueGreen in your capital city.
by bluegreen on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:11 pm
How can Alan Kohler continue to be employed by the ABC when he now has an interest in the ABC’s largest rival?
I know my employer wouldn’t let me continue under those circumstances?
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:12 pm
@BG/4047
So he sold out like the other old farts in the media (no offense intended on this blog).
by zoidlord on Jun 20, 2012 at 4:13 pm