Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
That Assange story looks wRONg. Lucas isn’t Ecuador’s DFM any more and I can’t find a genuine link to the BBC reporting Ecuador currently saying they will take Assange.
by Diogenes on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Zoomster, just for you:
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=YouTube+Jake+The+Peg&view=detail&mid=3D5F43BE4A27183DE2B93D5F43BE4A27183DE2B9&first=0
by Lynchpin on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:05 pm
psyclaw – agree with you re Rishworth. I have rellies in her electorate and they virtually adore her – one is a Lib voter but still thinks AR is a good pollie.
I don’t know much about JSaffin tho except her seat is marginal but whenever I see YD’Ath in debates or committee work she is excellent.
Zoomster – I can’t wait to see Assange’s next move. Is he expecting to embarrass Australia so that the Govt. will step in and save him from making the trip to Ecquador
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:07 pm
Assange has his head up his own arse if he thinks he’s been “politically persecuted” in or by Australia.
by Burgey on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:08 pm
shellbell – Deb O’Neill is in the Speakers Chair at the moment and is looking good. I hope she keeps her seat.
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:08 pm
@senatormilne: @mishaschubert MBA opposed compulsory insulation in new houses in Tas as long ago as 1989. MBA has driven higher cost of living, still does.
What is this about pls
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:09 pm
My personal view of her is that she’s exactly what Labor doesn’t need – another product of the factional machine, lacking life experience and trained to parrot Labor-right mantras on demand.
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:09 pm
david
Assange has effectively left UK soil already as the Ecuadorian embassy is technically in Ecuador. I would have thought that means he has breached his bail condition of not leaving the country.
by Diogenes on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Germaine Greer
by Schnappi on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:10 pm
I think he will be for the chop, if the yanks have anything to do with it!.
by 1934pc on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:10 pm
You don’t believe our government’s stance towards his situation has been coloured by political considerations?
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:10 pm
my say
MBA is Masters Building Associaton.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:11 pm
my say
Kelly O’Dwyer was ranting about the “carbon tax” putting up the cost of housing and Christine tweeted a response.
by lizzie on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:11 pm
My Say, I think it may have been faxed to Albo, I’m not sure as the original is in colour.
Hey, it’s much better having your question asked than getting into the Hansard
Here here:-)
Well done
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:11 pm
I guess that’s the best endorsement of it in a democracy.
I know what Newman says he wants to do is so problematic, Joh gave up on it. When Joh turned on the ETU (early 1984), he was (from memory) blocked by the wider implications of the Gordon below Franklin HCA case’s use of the Commonwealth’s External Affairs Powers under international treaties it had signed. Thus the Commonwealth (Hawke Gov) would probably use ILO treaties to block any legislation Joh passed.
Cam Newman’s more CanMouthOff than CanDo effectively and on budget, and, as Briz’s Lord Mayor, had a track record of broken promises.
Took a while for the memories to return, and longer for me to recall the nomenclature so I could google it effectively. I’m getting too old.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Patrick
Isn’t Rishworth a trained psychologist?
by Diogenes on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Think Ecuador owns the Galapogos Islands,maybe assange is their new species.
by Schnappi on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:12 pm
BH
No doubt Deb O’Neill’s advice on pre-selection for Dobell will be sought
by shellbell on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Dont quite understand christines tweet,
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Having the PM immediately declare him guilty of commiting crimes was not a good look.
by poroti on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:13 pm
PB
Frying pan/fire, did come to mind.
There is an array of US nutters baying publically, literally, for Mr Assange’s extra-judicial murder.
Since it is SOP to murder, extra-judically, perceived enemies of the US people, Mr Assange is, IMHO, at real risk of being topped.
I imagine that the US would have handy networks in Latin America, particularly in riven republics such as Ecuador.
The swedish legal system appears to me to be similar to having to play repeated rounds of Russian roulette.
Meanwhile Ms Bishop is doing her best to be Australia’s Don’t Cry For Me Evita Populista. Predictably, she is pathetic at it. Revolutionary firebrand she ain’t. She should try grand dame; see how that goes.
How bemusement that Oz, which has a somewhat robust rule of law, is being cast as the bad guy in all this.
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:15 pm
from abc complaints
Your comments alleging inaccurate reportage of the G20 Summit are noted, however you have not provided specific examples.
If you would like a more substantive response to your concerns, Audience and Consumer Affairs, a unit separate from ABC program areas can investigate the matters you raise. Your complaint should clearly outline the nature of your concerns and provide specific examples, naming programs, dates and times where possible. You can provide this information either via return email or the online complaints form at: http://www.abc.net.au/contact/complain.htm. More information on ABC complaint handling is available at http://www.abc.net.au/contact/complaints_process.htm.
Thank you for writing to the ABC.
Yours sincerely
Matthew Galvin
A/Research Officer
ABC News
by Lyne Lady on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Sweden has got a valid extradition action against Assange.
There is bugger all Australia can do about it.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Yes, she has a Masters.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Lyne Lady
Short version of ABC reply. “Go away!”
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Diogs – from wiki:
So by 22 she was president of Australian Young Labor and her pathway was retail->SDA->student politics->psychology in 2005->standing for parliament 2006 and 2007.
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:18 pm
bk – i’ve almost given up but will soldier on!!!
by Lyne Lady on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Patrick, that’s a very, very, very different thing to saying he’s been persecuted by or in Australia.
Assange is in the UK, subject currently to their laws and the laws of the EU. There are these ridicuous Wikileaks supporters who see the tin foil hats everywhere (I’m not suggesting you’re one by the way).
Can anyone seriously suggest there is some broad ranging conspiracy involving the UK Courts, Sweden and the US government? I mean, really?
Look, I think Sweden is being ridiculous. It’s a bizarre rule that you can be extradited just to be questioned. If they wanted to question him they ought to have questioned him in London. But there are a lot of laws which seem odd to me, in may parts of the world.
Why do those who support Assange assume the Australian government can do any more to see to it that he isn’t extradited to Sweden than it can help any other Australian citizen who’s subject to the laws and legal system of any other country?
by Burgey on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Boerwar
Better to have a chance at a life than to spend the rest of your life in a Seppo shit hole.
by poroti on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:18 pm
BH
i agree re deb o’neill – think she is excellent…
by Lyne Lady on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:19 pm
Patrick Bateman @ 4114
Very similar sentiments were espoused by both Hitler and Lenin – great ideoplogical company you are keeping there.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:20 pm
She worked at Glenside you smurf head. Why don’t you do that before having a go at someone who is quite successful.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:20 pm
The usual thing once you have reached friendly dimplomatic territory is that the two countries concerned negotiate a transfer.
I imagine that Britain would be pleased to see the last of Mr Assange.
This is what happened recently with the blind chinese dissident.
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Hitler was a Catholic smurf brain.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:22 pm
poroti
If you are arguing that none of Mr Assange’s life choices are good but that some are worse than others, I would agree.
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Do you really believe that anyone would be pursued in this manner in relation to this type of allegation if there weren’t huge political motivations to do so?
I mean, seriously? How many other people get extradited from Britain by Sweden for “surprise sex” allegations, I wonder?
In a world where the US thinks it’s ok to murder people who are just sitting around in countries the US isn’t even at war with, I can’t believe you don’t think that something akin to a conspiracy is at play with the Assange situation.
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Well they don’t have to wait long, he will be in Sweden by the end of the year.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:22 pm
LL
Agree with BK. Their ABC just wants you to go away. But of course, if you were Scott Morrison, your complaint would immediately be dealt with
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Shows On
True. Careless work by me.
by psyclaw on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:23 pm
I hear they also ate food, I assume you don’t do that? Or are you some kind of Nazi Commie totalitarian food eating monster?
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Conroy supports News Ltd restructuring. Number of job losses unclear.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/conroy-gives-green-light-to-news-limited-restructure/story-e6frg996-1226403248380
by Diogenes on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Does Bob Baldwin speak in every debate
by Meguire Bob on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Patrick i find that very offensive, 4114.
A dictator in a cou try might think that about all sorts of situations
Did you really think that through
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Didn’t see much of question time today but tuned in just as Shorten was in full flight with his meme of – this is what you get when you elect coalition governments (in relation to workers’ compo in NSW).
I thought he was very impressive – definitely PM material. In fact when you compare the talent on the Labor side against the rag tag bunch on the opposition side, it’s a no contest.
by Darn on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:25 pm
LL
Tweet a link to your reply from ABC complaints with the following quote. I am not Scott Morrison so my complaint does not count.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:25 pm
YEAH AND BARACK OBAMA IS A KENYAN!
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Hey guys, everyone should sign their abc complaints as ‘Scott Morrison’
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:26 pm
So she worked for a year or so between student politics and federal politics. According to the dates on Wikipedia, it must have been less than two years.
This is my point. Labor doesn’t need more career politicians with 2 years “real world” experience. It needs politicians who have been doing something worthwhile outside of politics for a significant period of their lives.
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:27 pm
There was fundamental rejection of religion in Nazism.
So call someone Smurf Brain when you have the tiniest iota of what you are talking about.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Darn
albo and Shorten were on fire today. I noticed Combet was really enjoying it too, as were other members of the front bench.
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:27 pm