Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
SK
Good thinking 99!
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:28 pm
If I was the PM, I would seriously consider having Amanda Risworth and Deb O’Neil either in the cabinet or the outer cabinet.
When considering a person for a position, you need to consider the full skill set and that means looking beyond the job title on the C.V
by mexicanbeemer on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:28 pm
My Say @ 4192
You and I are as one on this one!!
by blackburnpseph on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:28 pm
@delimiterau: Amazon confirms Sydney CDN node: http://t.co/aOwXH5aV
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:29 pm
Just saw Rudd on ABC News 24 on behalf of the “Heart Kids” charity.
Look for News Ltd. and the Gillardistas to use this as evidence that he is destabilising Gillard.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Patrick, you’re kidding. You think the Justices of the UK legal system, with security of tenure for life, conspired to uphold an extradition claim against Assange?
I don’t know how many people have been extradited to Sweden from Britain for the purposes of questioning. Nor, frankly, do I care.
The law under which he is being extradited predates the issues involving him. It isn’t a law which has just been brought into existence to facilitate his capture. The bloke has been competently represented all the way through, was living freely in England while all this has been going on, and was offered consular assistance by his country of birth. Just like every other Australian who gets in strife overseas. Now that may not be enough for Mr Assange and his supporters – I suspect nothing more than him being given the keys to the capital city of every State in the Commonwealth would be. But it’s the assistance he’s entitled to. He was offered it, as he should have been.
The bloke has had access to the best of representation the whole way through this case. His case has been heard publicly, and the judges have given reasons for their decisions. It doesn’t get any more transparent than that.
Sure, it seems an odd, even bizarre law to me. But that doesn’t mean he’s been persecuted here, nor does it mean there’s a conspiracy against him stretching right through the UK legal system.
by Burgey on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:31 pm
ShowsOn
Dont need to wait for News Ltd. their ABC is already at it.
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:31 pm
This article was obviously written by the News Ltd PR department. All is sweetness and light, the employees are happy and the minister is supportive.
What did Senator Conroy actually say?
by citizen on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Patrick I respect your viewpoint but on this occasion you are sounding nearly as bigoted as a faith based person saying his/her children will only play with children of the same faith
by mexicanbeemer on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:32 pm
A worse than normal time to require ambulance and Fire services.
@FBEUInnerWest: @annabelcrabb #FBEU heads up on general meeting tomorrow voting on state wide #FRNSW stoppages over #workerscompensation changes. All out.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:33 pm
My say – you’ll note I said that I thought that if you did that, that would be the outcome. Not that the state should actually do that. The point being, that I think that religions rely on recruiting people when they are children, which is why I think the school chaplains issue is particularly important.
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:33 pm
If zoomster bothered to look at the facts of the sex charges case against Assange, rather than parroting the Swedish charges, then I’d have a bit more respect for her opinion.
I had a rather prolonged argument with zoomster over this very issue.
And, according to other PBers, Assange was persona non grata because there were no leaks regarding the Howard era.
Hate to imagine their position now if there had been compromising leaks about Howard, rather than the insignificant stuff about Labor identities.
We’d never hear the end of how Assange was a hero.
But rather than concede any ground at all, zoomster relied on the Swedish charges as if they were an indictment in themselves, that someone accused of rape was if not guilty, then it would set back the feminist movement – not something to be argued at all.
And then went into a grand sulk about it.
Wouldn’t speak to me for ages.
I am an absolute supporter of Gillard.
But, she made a stupid mistake when she said that Assange had broken the law regarding the release of the US cables.
He hadn’t. Full stop.
If that was the case, then the NY Times should be being prosecuted for the same.
It is not.
Then the AFP said that he hadn’t broken the law.
Who do you believe?
This has nothing to do with consular support for Assange, but a helluva lot to do with a right-wing Sweden who has already been proven to rendition peeps for the US.
Bradley Manning is a whistleblower.
We all loved Andrew Wilkie when he was a whistleblower.
What’s your position when a whistleblower doesn’t suit your purpose? Are they only okay when they’re exposing dirt on opponents.
So, who knows why Assange is taking this action.
I don’t, you don’t.
I didn’t like his attack on Gillard during tht Q&A.
But, unlike you, I can understand it.
He was hung out to dry by the Aust govt on the very day that The Guardian (UK – Leveson expose), the NY Times, etc published the very same thing.
by kezza2 on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:34 pm
Lyne Lady – an instance is the report from LibsRUs Melissa Clarke on Lateline last night.
She showed JG and the Euro bloke saying he didn’t want to lectured to. It looked as tho he was talking about JG. There was no mention of the comment being directed to a Canadian journalist. In fact the Canadian papers reported it as a direct snap at Canada.
by BH on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Elec Prices in NSW risen 70% over the last 5y, ie: 14% per year. Next year 18% of which 8% due to #CarbonPrice. Another Abbott’s lie exposed
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-real-culprits-behind-surging-power-bills-20120620-20njs.html#ixzz1yJhC6P2V
by The Finnigans on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Actually the UK seems to be the one country behaving according to law here.
Australia is disgraceful, with the PM asserting his guilt and failing to apply any political pressure at all for his release.
Sweden has clearly, IMHO, been put up to the extradition.
The US has its standing grand jury just ready to frame him up for life imprisonment as soon as they get their hands on him.
And it is very relevant that a bizarre law is selectively applied (by Sweden) only when politically expedient. That is the opposite of the rule of law.
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Some smurfing Liberal moron on capital hill concerned that the chaplaincy program was challenged in the high court.
What an idiot, what citizens shouldn’t care if the government does something that is unconstitional and shouldn’t ever dare have these things tested in the High Court?
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:36 pm
mysay:
mysay, no one has the right to not be offended.
by don on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Evidence?
Would you want to live in a country that didn’t take allegations of sex crimes seriously, and didn’t pursue the matters?
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:37 pm
Might be a bit difficult to run for the Australian Senate from there.
A good outcome – long may he stay in Ecuador. He might need to check what their laws say though on a range of matters, otherwise…..
by dave on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:37 pm
Shows
Probably reads and believes Janet Albrechtson
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:38 pm
@annabelcrabb: Also on #TheDrum tonight, we’re going to talk to the Ecuadorian Ambassador about Julian Assange’s asylum claim.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:38 pm
My only issue with the chaplaincy program being the public school system is if parents wanted a faith based education then they would have sent the children to a faith based school.
by mexicanbeemer on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:39 pm
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:40 pm
Don @ 4216
If I recall you are a New Englander. What is your view of Torbay’s chances vs Windsor?
Pardon me if you have posted on this earlier.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:40 pm
Long live Assange!
In Ecuador.
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:40 pm
poroti
Yeah that was it… they also said it didn’t reflect what went on in classrooms, and as far as I’m aware the investigation went nowhere. (but could be wrong).
Y’know its also true that Unions threatened to bake Qantas slowly … was there ever a point this changed your perception of unions? When Abbott said ‘shit happens’ did you think this represented how all Liberals processed death? Come on… fair suck of the sav… we’ve just spent a whole year bagging the press for populist muckraking and crap.
by Gecko on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:40 pm
kezza
I was in a sulk with you?
Thanks for informing me. I hadn’t realised that up until now!
by zoomster on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:41 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:42 pm
Presumably Assange will go in the slammer pending his extradition if he is rejected by Ecquador.
You would think he would be given bail in Sweden as he is only sought there for questioning
by shellbell on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Oh, and just in case you think my short answer is a sign that I’m still miffed, I’m dashing out the door to watch my son debate.
I stand by what I’ve said about Assange, and about those conspiracy theorists who think that four countries known for their respect for the rule of law are out to get him.
by zoomster on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:43 pm
SK
Good one.
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Go and smurf yourself, your smurfing nonsense is of no value here.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:44 pm
ShowsOn is so blue
by mexicanbeemer on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:45 pm
I am absolutely not suggesting that other people can’t raise their kids however they want to.
The sole point I am making is that it is outrageous for the state to fund the placement of chaplains (whose whole purpose in their career is the promotion and application of their faith) to speak to vulnerable children in state schools.
I find it deeply troubling that a very personal choice, namely what religious/spiritual/moral beliefs you might raise your own children with, are being undermined by the Commonwealth.
Surely the only reasonable course is for a system to be adopted which does not incorporate any religious element?
by Patrick Bateman on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:45 pm
My thoughts on the Assange case are the following:
The USA cannot be trusted to be reasonable within a reasonable time-frame. Assange may, if he ends up in the USA system eventually get out after lengthy court battles.
Questioning of suspects is not something that should require extradition. Questioning of uncharged suspects could easily occur via teleconferencing. It would be preferable for warrants to be issued by a judge not a prosecutor.
I do not agree with the misogynist attacks on the Swedish laws and the accusers by some of the Assange camp. “by surprise” does not sound very consensual to me and I think (even though I am not a lawyer) that the Law in Victoria may well cover the sort of thing covered by “by surprise” in its definition of a lack of consent. Closed courts are suspicious but there are legitimate reasons for them.
by Tom the first and best on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Mexican @ 4221 and other
Junior Pseph attends a local state high school. They have had a chaplaincy program there for 40 years (I am not sure how it is funded). the school feedback is that the chaplaincy program is a very positive contributor to the school as it provides a very positive level of pastoral care that is not available in all state schools – some parents choose this school as it does provide better pastoral care than other local state schools. Apparently also the kids value the chaplaincy program as they see it as detached from the school – they can speak to someone who knows the school well but is not of the school. According to young Pseph (who didn’t pick up much from 7 years of Catholic education) – religion is not mentioned during the pastoral care periods.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:46 pm
Patrick,
I agree what the PM said about Assange was wrong, however, that doesn’t amount to being politically persecuted here.
It is understandable people will have their suspicions about Sweden given they have rendered people to the US before. I don’t, however, see what the government can do beyond offer him assistance when the process he’s going through with regards his extradition is transparent and he’s had proper representation.
by Burgey on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:46 pm
The Libs are off and running in the electorate of Banks!
In the mail today a lovely four fold card style promo for the Liberal candidate complete with a return addressed form for us to highlight with a box tick the Federal issues we are concerned about.
Lovely family photos with comments on “our concerns” about the cost of living and you have guessed it the “carbon tax”. The candidate is an employee of Channel Nine.
Banks has a margin of 1.5%.
by MTBW on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Shows On still hasn’t responded to Mrs Childcott being 87 years old, as she was his first girlfriend in primary school.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:48 pm
LL @ 4171
Funny enough I received the same response.
by swamprat on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:49 pm
burgey
No one not even Assange has claimed he has been politically persecuted by Australia. Assange is claiming that Australia is not doing everything in its power to protect him from political persecution. If you wonder what see Julian Burnside tweets.
At least get your facts right about the claims being made.
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:50 pm
swamprat
Roboresponses!
by BK on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:50 pm
Shows On
per favore could you quote the name or number of the source of your quotes and the object of your counter arguments.
Saves a lot of scrolling to find what you’re referring to.
Thanks
by psyclaw on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:52 pm
k
(Hitler was a Catholic smurf brain.)
How rude, calling some o smurf brain ,
re have been many dictators with different religions or no religion.
And i can tell you i am not a tony tory type catholic
In case you are wondering.
In fact i dont even know who posted the bit in brackets
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:54 pm
Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu, Nobel Peace Prize winner, key player in bringing down South Africa’s apartheid system, might invite comparison with a variety of figures — Martin Luther King, perhaps, or Frederick Douglass. But Lady Gaga?
http://www.advocate.com/politics/religion/2012/06/18/desmond-tutu-rock-star-equal-rights
by guytaur on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:55 pm
We need someone butch to seek asylum with Julian in Ecuador, then we will have Butch and the Assange Kid
by The Finnigans on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:56 pm
k
Shows On still hasn’t responded to Mrs Childcott being 87 years old, as she was his first girlfriend in primary school.
Thats hillerious , guess why
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:56 pm
No.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:56 pm
poroti
Totally agree with you! I wonder whether the PM is trying to run in tandem with Obama’s position.
by MTBW on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Dan Gulberry still hasn’t responded to the assertion that he is a smurfing moron.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 5:58 pm