Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Dan there actually could be a person by that name
Very well known name here
by my say on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Zoomster
That is the same mentality which lead to this farce in the wild wild west.
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/stories/s265381.htm
by poroti on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:41 pm
This is Dr Marohasy, from Queensland, former employee of the sugar cane industry and she has spent time with the IPA (yes, THAT IPA.)
http://jennifermarohasy.com/about/
Dr Morahasy is a biologist and etymologist (i.e. insects)’
Oh, and also from her webpage
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:41 pm
@Victoria
Whoa, I didn’t know about the first one, I thought this whole mess was about the issue of condoms.
And thanks for clearing that up, Zoomster.
Well, yes, he does have questions to answer about that. And either way, if she made it clear she only agreed to have sex with him with a condom then he bloody well should have respected that.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:42 pm
swamprat
Read in particular Khalkin Gol battle details. It was clear that Stalin was already treating the eastern and european conflicts as part of the same war.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Japanese_border_conflicts
‘Boer’* is dutch; ‘war’ is english.
And I despise all empires.
*borrowed by the Afrikaaners from the true owners…
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:42 pm
Poroti quoted as follows:
For 10 points — which army carried the slogan “Gott mit Uns” on their belt buckles into battle?
then said:
The Wehrmacht but not the SS.
A distinction without a difference as the regime was totalitarian and the amred forces were not at arm’s length from the culture within the executive. If they carried “Gott mit Uns” on their belt buckles, it was with the blessing of the Nazi leadership.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:43 pm
Victoria
If Assange did sexual acts which were against the law, he should of course be charged.
BUT that is not the issue.
The concern is that the actions of the Swedish Authorities are very suspicious. They only want him for an interview but they cannot do it in UK nor by video link.
US politicians and others have called for his assassination etc
The US has a bad record of kidnapping/torture/killings etc.
The Swedish Government has handed over people before for US treatment.
That is the issue.
There are reports that the pressure on Manning in the USA is ti implicate Assange. If he does, they will treat him leniently.
by swamprat on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:43 pm
VK
Silly question. But Assange has been in the UK for 2 years. The US could have sought extradiction during this period of time. Why would they need to wait for him to go to Sweden to seek extradiction?
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:44 pm
my say
I know. But this was the woman SO claimed was his first GF.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:44 pm
Kind of Jew by Miles Davis?
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:45 pm
SO
Don’t make me hurt you.
by Diogenes on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:46 pm
Suggest you read the “victim” statements before making up your mind in the first instance.
by kezza2 on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Swamprat
Why would it be easier for Assange to be extradicted from Sweden rather than the UK? I dont get it
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Gauss
I don’t know enough about it to comment.
I would believe the CSIRO recommendations though, which are probably more generous to the river than the Govt.
Water security is becoming incredibly important all round Australia (I work as a hydrogeologist) and the conflicts that are beginning will go on and get worse.
Too many people…
by Astrobleme on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Jewbular Bells by Mike Oldfield?
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Fran
I assume that what you are saying is that the Nazis were a Christian force because they allowed the German Army to have “Gott mit Uns” on their fucking belt buckles?
by swamprat on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:47 pm
It’s true! She was my very first girlfriend!
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:48 pm
Gauss
I haven’t followed the lakes (Alexandrina) debate very closely. What I do understand is that the changes in salinity in the Coorong has reduced shorebird populations by around 80,000.
But that is not the sort of stuff on which Ms Mahorosy focuses, is it?
The mouth of the Murray is going to move upstream over the next couple of centuries anyway, unless the North Carolina legislators have found some new way of stopping sea level rise.
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:48 pm
This was not what the two ladies claimed when they first visited the police station.
This is the part I alluded to previously as creatively developing over months.
Doesn’t mean it didn’t happen just as claimed but it looks awfully suspicious.
by Dee on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Fran Barlow
Sorry, did not attach irony /smiley/joking emoticon. Of course there was no bloody difference. Now give me my 10 points and a bonus point for knowing the SS had Meine Ehre heißt Treue
by poroti on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:49 pm
victoria
Because the UK courts operate differently. And, I understand the politics in Sweden at the present is more sympathetic to ring wing America.
by swamprat on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:50 pm
Puff,
I dislike Marohasey intensely. But she is right about the origin of Lake Alexandrina… or whatever it is called.
Apparently she was at QU when my wife was there.
by Astrobleme on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:50 pm
@Victoria
That’s what I’ve been wondering too.
If the US are going to extradite Assange, I would imagine that they would do it in 2013 after the elections, because they don’t want to start a politically hot issue in an election year.
From what I’ve heard in the news, having him held up in the Swedish legal system would pin him down long enough for them to get the clearance to extradite him, or alternatively, he would be transferred to a US plane easily once he’s in Sweden.
Both unlikely and both would lower my opinion on the USA significantly if either of them happened, but that’s what Assange’s allies are arguing.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:51 pm
I missed the ABC TV News this evening but just saw Kohler’s segment online. No mention of his (additional) conflict of interest there…
by Laocoon on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:51 pm
Puff, the Magic Dragon @ 4502
Shorter Puff. Look over there.
by Gauss on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:52 pm
Astrobleme
(1) Are you aware of any links to the decline of run-off with temperature increases in the last MDB drought?
(2) We are discussing whether to sell our annual allocation now or to wait in the hope of a better price after xmas…. What do you reckon? (We use the proceeds to rehabilitate a couple of kilometres of thoroughly degraded riverbank).
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:53 pm
In The Aeroplane Over The Sea by Neutral Milk Hotel. Great album!
“I know they buried her body with others/her sister and mother and five hundred families/and will she remember me, fifty years later?/I wish I could save her in some sort of time machine…”
by rishane on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Wow, China’s Shenzhou IX spacecraft and Tiangong-1 Lab Module successful docked with the 1st female astronaut onboard – http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/Shenzhou-IX/2012-06/18/content_15509436.htm
by The Finnigans on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Question without notice.
Can any of our QLD colleagues please tell me if Cando has made any noises about trying to interfere with the construction of the Gold Coast light rail project?
by Darn on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Seriously, guys, that’s the advice the legal experts give to teenagers – that you have to be very, very sure.
Of course, once charged, you have – just as Assange does – the opportunity to argue it out in court.
But it’s better not to get there in the first place!
by zoomster on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:54 pm
I think the UK was unlikely to extradite Assange to the US as he hadn’t committed a crime under UK law. Sweden doesn’t really care about that kind of nicety.
by Diogenes on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:54 pm
Von Kirdarke
Let me put this scenario to you, and you tell me if it is rape.
You’ve snuggled up with someone, a female, you’ve had consensual sex, with a condom, you slept together, in the spoon position, then you, the male, have woken with a morning glory. Do you ask again for consent, or do you move against her body?
Does consent continue after a night of loving, or does it extinguish after the last act?
I put it to you, that consent continues. Do you agree?
As you wriggle together and have sex, is that rape?
by kezza2 on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:54 pm
IMO, Sgt. Peppers’ Lonely Hearts Club Jew is a better album.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:55 pm
rishane
10/10
by Diogenes on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:55 pm
Who is remarkably well preserved for an 87 year old woman.
http://www.activatelife.com.au/about.html
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:55 pm
Diogenes
What are you saying? If the US seek to extradict Assange, it will have nothing to do any crimes committed in the UK or Sweden. The US will be doing so for a crime answerable to the US.
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:57 pm
There was a rape case in S.A. along these lines a few years ago. The answers were as follows.
No.
Yes.
But different states have different rape laws, so it is possible the answers will be different in different states.
In S.A., if either person withdraws (excuse the pun) consent at any time, one partner forcing the other in any way to continue having sex may constitute rape.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 9:58 pm
THank you for that link, it brings back so many pleasing memories from many, many years ago.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:00 pm
Victoria
yes they (US reports) are saying Assange committed a crime against an early 20th century US statute on espionage
by swamprat on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:00 pm
If Assange is only a conduit for whistleblowers, just as any mainstream media outlet, why would the US bother?
by Dee on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:00 pm
The Finnigans
Double WOW. I thought they were just talking about doing it rather than actually doing it. Sooo now we have the commie bastard Ruskies, Chinee and clapped out Euros as being the only nations which can deliver stuff to Space Stations.
by poroti on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:01 pm
Darn
Dalight saving in QLD next year.
You heard it first here.
Very popular with the white shoe brigade.
by Pipe Fitter on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:01 pm
vic
What Assange will be accused of by the US isn’t likely to be considered a crime in the UK. The UK don’t extradite is what you are accused of isn’t a crime in their country.
by Diogenes on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:01 pm
poroti
Not to mention Indonesia and South Korea co-operating in the development of a stealth aircraft…
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:02 pm
swamprat
On that basis the US could seek extradiction from the UK if they wished. To suggest it is easier for them to do it from Sweden is frankly absurd
by victoria on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:02 pm
@kezza2
I don’t know if that situation is rape. Anyone with common sense would obviously ask first.
If she woke up and said “stop” but it continues, then yes. If she woke up and gave signs that she wanted to continue, then no.
If she remained asleep, I don’t know.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Rape
And, you’re so ecstatic about having sex with this person, that you text people and tell them you’re having a great time with him/
Then a couple of days later, you find out that he’s had sex with someone else.
You compare notes. You find out that one of his “things” is to forcefully place one of his legs against yours.
Hey, let’s forget it was terribly exciting at the time.
It’s his MO.
I’m furious that he didn’t come back to me.
Let’s report him for rape.
Hey, the prosecutor’s my friend. She’ll believe me.
Oh, oh, thrown out.
We tried to get the bastard. Failed.
Hey, it’s back on again.
Let’s get him.
Pity one of them wants to pull out.
by kezza2 on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:03 pm
But he is going to Sweden first and apparently they just extradite anyone at the drop of a hat.
by ShowsOn on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:03 pm
poroti
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KAI_KF-X
by Boerwar on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Rossmore @4409
a) The “Godwin’s” rule is vacuous. There’s nothing wrong with alluding to the Nazis when the allusion is germane. (pun intended)
b) I was responding to another poster (Poroti) who had made a claim about them. Ergo, it was germane.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 20, 2012 at 10:04 pm