Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
Page 1 of 3 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Do you ever go 5 minutes without thinking of Leadershit ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:56 pm
So Sweden have not come out and said, no we will not extradite this man to the USA. Would you trust a right-wing governments with your life?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:56 pm
TLM
Rudd has also been seen having coffee with Joe Hockey, someone I’m sure he’s had more than one disagreement with in the past.
Albo supported Rudd in the leadership ballot, but it’s quite clear he’s friendly with Julia Gillard.
I’ve had coffee with Liberal and National MPs myself; it didn’t mean I thought they were great guys or that I was going to vote for one of them in a leadership ballot.
Freud said that sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
Sometimes a cup of coffee is just a cup of coffee.
by zoomster on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:57 pm
In the same vein, the gleeful hand clapping that ensued amongst some of the PB Laborites about the Indian student who was illegally detained for eighteen months because it occurred under Howard’s watch was sad and shocking.
That a person’s illegal curtailment of freedom was viewed through a prism of political point scoring rather than a grave miscarriage of justice is a sad indictment.
by Pegasus on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:57 pm
Ahh so if they suddenly lite up the Havanas then we know something is on
by Mick Collins on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:59 pm
Thomas Paine switches to Philosophy with a splash of Social Science.
Hilarious.
by Jake on Jun 20, 2012 at 11:59 pm
Mick
Only if the Havanas explode.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:00 am
Every government that i know in western world is right wing from Australia to Sweden to ….
by swamprat on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:00 am
Pegasus @ 4706
Quite simply Pegasus, they are not true ALP supporters as they do not present true Labor values.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:01 am
Assange has not avoided questioning. He was available at all times in Sweden and in the UK.
They could have if that was really their need and intention done so a thousand times already. That have not bothered to do that but been entirely obsessed with getting to Sweden speaks of ulterior motives.
The issuance of a Red Notice, and just for questioning by Sweden, for an equivocal complaint against him and how that itself eventuated had some strangeness about it, makes it very plain that their purpose is nought to do with the complaint and everything with securing him in Sweden.
We should also remember Sweden had previously denied any dealings or working with the USA CIA. A wiki leak revealed this to be a lie, and that they were working closely together.
This fit-up is so obvious..
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:03 am
I think shows off has had a heart attack and fallen off his chair.
No post for a while, can someone check?
by Pipe Fitter on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:03 am
Never, ever.
oh, and btw fess
what do you call an anti-Ruddite who supports Assange?
by kezza2 on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:04 am
why is it “wrong” to release Government documents to the public? I think it is generally very good
by swamprat on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:05 am
And here comes “pain in the arse” bemused, the newly self-appointed arbitor of Labor values.
*crowd goes wild*
by Jake on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:07 am
Goodnight
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:08 am
Cos plebs might take the info the wrong way.
You know, we can’t be trusted.
That’s why Wikileaks was so feared.
by kezza2 on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:10 am
Guytur
Of course
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:11 am
Jake
why is bemused “pain in the arse”?
by swamprat on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:11 am
Jake @ 4716
I am quite happy for you to argue to the contrary.
But obviously you can’t so you resort to pathetic insults.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:12 am
I agree, hence we should become a republic.
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:14 am
I dunno swamprat, William said he was and that’s good enough for me.
As for Assange, he’s a very smart and brave guy but he hung a source out to dry.
by Jake on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:16 am
Jake @ 4723
Well that’s pretty convincing.
So when William makes a comment about you I take it as gospel?
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:18 am
Yup, its a Newspoll weekend alright: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-shadows-gillard-again-as-supporters-circle-20120620-20on0.html
by rishane on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:18 am
Well, I’m off to find some more source (or is that sauce?)
Darn, if you are about
We had three after-shocks last night, just an increasing rumble before dying out.
Probably 5 mins, 10 mins and 40 mins to an hour after the initial shake.
Didn’t do much for sleeping patterns though.
So, am going to have a great sleep tonight.
by kezza2 on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:22 am
VKirk 4640 re Greece
________
“Unstable’ is a kind description of the new govt
NOW…at the behest of the German Empire,…as I heard it called a few nights ago on the BBC…the new regime has…in the next few weeks . to . start sacking another 150.000 public servants.close many public hospitals,and cut billions from social security and pensions
This will bring the crowds onto the streets in great numbers
PASOC the dying fragment of the old Soc Party will probably disintegrate and the revolt will be led by the left’s SYRIZA and it’s charismatic young leader TCypris
While these events take place I notice that Medisins Son Frontier have arrived in Athens to give emergency help to children who are dying because of lack of medicines and vaccine…there are outbreaks of all sorts of diseases with the collapse of the health system…250 chemists in Athens are bankrupt due to the Govt’s inabily to pay them for medicines et al…given under the bankrupt National Health Scheme
This is said by many to be much worse than the Great Depression of the 1930ies…
and nowhere in Europe are the Austerity programs working…and we are just at ther start of what seems like a New Depression..and next Spain/Italy and the rest will follow
__________
by deblonay on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:26 am
Yes. I think his opinion of me is “dickhead”, but he uses that so often I can’t really be sure.
by Jake on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:29 am
Jake @ 4728
Your sense of humour redeems you…
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:31 am
Goodnight all.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:36 am
rishane
Yep, gotta give it to him.
Those fete videos, uploaded by the MAN, are something else.
How did GG put it?
Rivetting!
They’ll sure make all the Gillardistas shiver in their shoes.
Oh, what’s that?
It’s going to be a Spring offensive.
September.
Dream on, Phil Coorey.
But, I suppose, it’s enough to make the polls stay the same Monday.
Try harder, buddy.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-shadows-gillard-again-as-supporters-circle-20120620-20on0.html#ixzz1yLOobeIm
by kezza2 on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:38 am
It is a very imperfect world, and the full, frank truth is not compatible with a lot of international diplomacy.
A defense white paper in Australia is alleged to have a “sealed” section outlining war gaming scenarios with China – it may or may not exist, if it exists it serves no positive purpose to be publicly disclosed, but instead would cause serious stress on our relationship with China to be disclosed, or even admitted to.
Frank assessments of international diplomats and leaders is important for governments to make accurate judgments about negotiations and international positioning. It is not, however, helpful or useful for what amounts to gossip to be made public.
Should diplomats feel that they need to be constrained and diplomatic even in cables “back home” for fear that they may be revealed and cause international tension/disruption/breakdown of talks or increase in hostility?
Confidentiality is frequently important for people to properly disclose what they know. I believe public servants working in sensitive areas such as foreign affairs or defense should have a reasonable expectation of confidentiality in order to be able to freely offer the best advice without looking over their shoulder about how such advice will “play” in the public media-spun world. Cabinet confidentiality is important for the same reason – decision making within government should be able to be done with robust discussion without who-said-what-and-why being in the public sphere argued over by partisan media outlets running an agenda. If confidentiality goes out the window then a lot of decision making will be done in a much poorer environment where people do not feel free to speak their minds.
Whistleblowing is a very specific thing – identifying behaviour of organisations (government and private) that is against the public interest that is not otherwise being illuminated. Whistleblowing is not the indiscriminate release of sensitive information because of some ideological position that information should be “free”.
I could see the justification for whistleblowing with respect to the “collateral murder” video.
I cannot see the justification for most of the diplomatic cable releases.
by Jackol on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:51 am
Sadly the most strident defenders of WikiLeaks seem to think you could run an effective government without there being any secret documents at all, including cabinet documents or documents for ongoing police investigations.
It is just pure madness.
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:17 am
Swampsmurfer
Well bloody hell mate, you really think the country would be better if every cabinet document was put up on a website?
What about ongoing police investigations?
GENERALLY is just a cop out, actually write down what you mean. What documents SHOULDN’T governments have to reveal?
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:23 am
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-20/tpg-fined-242m-over-misleading-ads/4082454
TPG, and a few other ISPs are fined for misleading advertising over bundle plans. Why they would need to do it I do not know because TPG have good products.
I hope the regulatory authorities are just warming up for the Carbon Price miscreants.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:29 am
Some mature comments re the carbon price for a chnage
“Tax is no deterrent for investors, says Shell boss
THE chief executive of Shell, Peter Voser, has applauded the Gillard government’s $23 carbon price, saying it should not deter investment in Australian resources projects and countries that failed to follow suit would fall behind.
Shell, the world’s second-largest energy firm, is investing more than $30 billion in Australia in the next five years. Mr Voser told the ABC’s 7.30 program last night the company already assumes a $40 carbon price when it judges whether or not a project will be profitable.
”We’re investing those sums of money because we take 20, 30 years’ view rather than just the next two, three quarters and in that sense, historical experience and also a forward-looking experience for Australia is very positive,” he said.
”Shell as a company is actually very much advocating that we need a price for carbon on the worldwide basis and we want that to be on a market mechanism.”
He said Australia was generally an attractive place to develop resources projects and the carbon price should not deter investors. His remarks counter claims by the Coalition and other critics of the government’s carbon price that the policy will damage resources investment in Australia.
Mr Voser said the world would ultimately have to follow in Australia’s footsteps because the ballooning demand for energy would force a shift to cleaner sources.
He said countries that did not have a carbon price would ultimately fall behind: ”I think they will not be competitive in attracting investment.””
http://www.smh.com.au/business/tax-is-no-deterrent-for-investors-says-shell-boss-20120620-20omm.html#ixzz1yLnKxzsS
by Ratsars on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:17 am
Cut and Paste.
Headline in The Oz at 1pm:
John Quiggin at 2pm:
Headline on the same story in The Oz at 3pm:
Story in today’s Australian:
Just kidding on the last point, obviously.
by William Bowe on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:20 am
Logging in from Greece, why I am not sure as I see at this time in the morning in Australia the leadership rages on, can’t you understand Australia is great compared to Eurpore especially here in Greece, what is with you guys, Julia is prime minister and unless you want TA as PM just cool it, surely none of you want TA except of course Evan
Finally formed a government over here, was taken out last night for a farewell dinner by the family, to a restaurant I had never been to a very traditional Greek great food, off to Serifos tomorrow. Was told good news last night which I hope is right, the strikes won’t start until August, poor buggers really don’t know what they will do, with the 8 billion euro cut for the austerity, and the 150000 PB jobs to go. And some of you still bitch on about leadership!!!! how would you like 25%unemployment official but closer to 45 %
Hope there is some internet on Serifos, off as it is starting to play up again here
Keep up the good work Puffy
Still very hot of course over here
BTW Would someone tell Poroti I heard Halleluh chorus on Greek, TV hope it is a good sign??
by mari on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:38 am
morning bludgers
coorey still on the ruddstoration drip…
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-shadows-gillard-again-as-supporters-circle-20120620-20on0.html
by Lyne Lady on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:33 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
That 40% “Carbon Tax Rate Rise” story is an absolute disgrace and needs some very serious response. Let’s hope it happens!
Jessica Wright on Combet’s NPC appearance. For what it’s worth.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/combet-slams-gutless-abbott-20120620-20nrf.html
Michael Leunig on the demise of the broadsheet.
http://images.smh.com.au/2012/06/20/3389341/MOR—leunig-20120620114441696469-620×0.jpg
David Pope sums up the High Court school chaplains decision.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg playing with fire!
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
David Rowe with a ripper on the movements in media ownership – complete with alluring siren.
http://www.afr.com/rw/2009-2014/AFR/2012/06/20/Photos/e5ba303e-bae9-11e1-b25c-031f3a1dd2f3_gallery21jun12–736×515.jpg
by BK on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:33 am
I hope JWH sees this.
http://www.americablog.com/2012/06/bush-isnt-going-to-be-happy-when-he.html
http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/new-cia-docs-show-bush-ignored-seven-
More for Abbott’s Tory template.
http://www.americablog.com/2012/06/survey-by-guardian-shows-extreme-hunger.html
Looks like Mitt Romney and Abbott are made of the same stuff.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2012/06/20/surprise-mitt-romney-campaign-cuts-press-call-short-after-immigration-questions/
by BK on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:46 am
I’m off to the flatlands for most of the day for some coin.
Enjoy QT!
by BK on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:08 am
Good morning Bludgers brave and true!
The sun is up.
The birds are singing.
Labor is still in government.
Julia Gillard is still Prime Minister.
Wayne Swan is still WGT.
Tony Abbott is still WGD.
Those BISONs continue to embarrass Europe. Suck it up, princesses. Maybe if your governments were as good you’d have some BISONs of your own.
RUDDSTORATION! in the lead up to a Newspoll weekend.
Who’d have thunk it?
by Danny Lewis on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:23 am
just listening to FM Bob Carr speaking so lucidly on breakfast – a return to Ruddspeak would be appalling
by Lyne Lady on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:26 am
Coorey is now the Spruiker In Chief for the Ruddistas. He’s the main conduit at the SMH for their fantasies. They’re “circling”, “closing in”, etc.
Last article he told us they were letting her off the hook this month, with the implication that they’d rather do her slowly.
It’s pretty clear he’s bucking for a promotion when Gina comes along. Why a story like the current one rate even page 32 at the bottom left is beyond me.
It goes like this:
Rudd Comeback Story No. #3,492
1. Previous definitely absolutely bet-your-house-on-it deadline passes without incident.
2. Ruddista phones Coorey, without the slightest hint of embarrassment, no apology for the last wrong tip. Coorey doesn’t care anyway.
3. Ruddista tells Coorey of impending spill. Points out numbers needed. Gives timeline (usually end of month/season/parliamentary session)
4. From Coorey’s point of view, it’s only half and inch on the map. Can’t be too hard to get those 20 or so defectors to come across.
5. Coorey writes up story as if it’s real (well, it’s real that someone phoned him).
6. CUE: Another day of Ruddstoration on PB, who seem to be about the only mugs who take the story seriously, as they suffer from “If-It’s-In-The-Paper-It-Must-Be-True” syndrome, even though pretty soon there won’t even be a paper.
If the Ruddistas actually believe any of this, they are insane. I think Rudd has already gone insane. Coorey, now definitely a player, as no-one with any intelligence could seriously believe any of this stuff he’s being fed, is just trying to impress his new Bogan Queen.
Coorey does not realise that Gina eats small fry like Coorey on toast, for breakfast.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:37 am
Good Morning Bludgers!
BB, thanks for taking one for the team, because I find Coorey’s scribing about as exciting as reading a teenage girl’s diary and about as hysterical.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:46 am
Hi bludgers
mari
Great to hear from you. It does appear that Greece are finally able to form a functioning govt. fingers crossed
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:47 am
That’s a good point: Coorey can’t even write well.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:50 am
SK
Agreed. Although Latika was tweeting about Rudd having lunch with Fitzgibbon and Danby as a sign. A further tweet from her revealed that Rudd is being drafted, and she only reports what she has been told. Funny that she never seems to tweet anything on the coalition side. Actually this week, Latika has been playing partisanship which is not the ABC charter. Of course, she would only take notice of complaints of bias, if they come from Scott Morrison. The ABC needs a frickin big shake up
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:51 am
Hi Mari,
Leadershit is the last bastion of the ‘I got nothing’ journalist!
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:51 am
Suppose, for example, that Assange does come back to Australia, and that the government is aware of potentially serious threats to his life.
They put him under witness protection, giving him an assumed identity, at an undisclosed location.
Wikileaks, true to their commitment to transparency, puts out on the interwebs where he is living and what name he is using.
Within a day, he is dead.
Do you think the government would, in that case, argue that the information should have been kept secret?
(That situation is actually not very hypothetical at all; people under witness protection in Australia have been killed because someone revealed their details. Do you think we should praise the people who did so for their courage and commitment?)
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:53 am
BOB ELLIS ON ASSANGE
________
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2012/06/20/classic-ellis-assange-2011/
by deblonay on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:55 am