Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
zoomster
I am with you 100%
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:56 am
The continuing outrage of Alan Kohler’s presence on the national broadcaster has finally reached the mainstream press, here the Fairfax business gossip column, CBD:
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/breaking-news-the-williams-way-20120620-20oni.html#ixzz1yND107QE
by Laocoon on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:01 am
I have been misled. I went straight to the story expecting writing at the level of A. Frank’s Diary (which is the only teenage girl’s diary I have been privileged to read – and, in the circumstances, understandably “hysterical”).
by Windhover on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:01 am
BK
A nice cartoon about Tones tory mates and the “template”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cartoon/2012/jun/19/steve-bell-cartoon-iain-duncan-smith
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:02 am
Good morning all.
I said the same thing last night.
Bear in mind though that we are approaching the anniversary of Rudd Removal, so the Ruddistas are about to have their annual day of mourning as it were.
by confessions on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:02 am
Whilst on things media, what an amazing coincidence that both the major newspaper owners announced revolutionary changes within 48 hours.
On a different topic altogether, it warms the cockles of this cultural traditionalist’s heart how the modern age still supports Kabuki theatre…
by Laocoon on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:03 am
Thanks for the caps Deb, that little bit of extra warning just what I needed to avoid accidentally reading that one …
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:04 am
As earthquakes go it was a pretty mild one in its effects. A few jam jars crashed to supermarket floors, some books tumbled off bookshalves, and punters rushed out into the street to chat to each other probably for the first time in months.
If you were going to have an earthquake, this was a good one to have.
But with no economic figures to digest, the Age goes to town on the tremblor telling us:
Gotta give it to them. Usually its unemployment or interest rates they’re telling us are “surprising”, or that the new metric “raised eyebrows”, and anyway, the NEXT set of figures will definitely be worse, so don’t get too cocky you’ve dodged a bullet.
And so it goes, the NEXT earthquake will be The Big One.
This one was just a trigger for “entertainers and celebrities all over the world” who have “called home to show their support” for Melbourne (you have to put up with the video attached to the article too see that, though).
There’s nothing these so-called “journalists” see that’s ever any good. Good news is only good because it’s the harbinger of bad news, next time.
Whether it be economic data, Ruddstoration, and now an earthquake, it’s always going to get WORSE. A journalist’s job is to make us miserable, leave us in fear and make us dread the future.
And they wring their hands, crying that no-one reads their crappy newspaper?
Who’d have guessed?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:05 am
confessions
On the day of mourning, I may clean my bathroom with a toothbrush. Would be more fun
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:05 am
BB
Did you see firstdogonthemoon cartoon yesterday re the Melb Quake? It was brilliant.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:07 am
by confessions on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:07 am
victoria:
I don’t even remember what the actual date is!
by confessions on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:08 am
I will be wearing my old Kevin-07 T-shirt and going over the How To Vote card I kept as a souvenir.
Please…. no-one try to talk me out of it. I’ve made up my mind.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:09 am
confessions
Either 23 or 24 June.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:09 am
BB Confessions
of course it is newspoll this weekend so coorey just has to work hard!! a return to ruddspeak would be only slightly less bearable than noddy abbott…
by Lyne Lady on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:10 am
@CraigEmersonMP Emmo, this cant be left unchallenged. Another blatant CP impact lie by #NewsCorpse (via PB Bilbo) – http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/06/17/galaxy-56-44-to-coalition-2/comment-page-95/#comment-1309615
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:13 am
Remember last year? We had a whole Festive Of Rudd.
Abbott was going to march on Canberra and force a plebiscite vote. The Convoy turned up (or not) according to observers. There were SSOs a’plenty.
As it turned out, the buns went stale, the plebiscite didn’t even get motioned, and nothing effing happened.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:13 am
I never bought into the Kevin 07 thing. It seemed too teenagerish at the time.
Thinking about how far he has fallen underscores the description of Rudd as rooster-to-feather-duster.
by confessions on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:15 am
The finns
The msm have resorted to print out and out lies. That is how dire the medium has become
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:18 am
Sk
That would make a great tweet
to him
My feeling now is, that now people relze print media has had it,
In newspapers,
I am rather hope ful books will stay on and good quality magazi es
They will be taken less seriously by the last lot of cutomers
Readers will diminish quicker, as they say to them selves i had better start readi g on line,
Or even saying i had better buy a computer
If i had a computer bussiness i would be puting this in to an adverisement
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:18 am
Btw is KJackson back in Court today?
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:19 am
23 rd from memory,
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:20 am
Good Morning
I think the whole Coorey Rudd article is to distract attention from Can Do trashing unions in Queensland. That or more distraction as to what Gina is up to. That way Coorey is probably hoping to keep his job.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:20 am
Apparently Assange’s asylum claim is to be decided in 24hrs.
i hope he is successful.
by confessions on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:22 am
confessions
Agreed
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:23 am
Read and weep:
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
1/2 Two blatant lies by #NewsCorpse in the last few days: (1) PM G20 EU Lecture bashing, exposed by Groggy – http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/fairfax-and-g20-visits-what-do-we-need.html
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
2/2 Two blatant lies by #NewsCorpse in the last few days: (2) Carbon Price Impact, exposed by PB Bilbo – http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/06/17/galaxy-56-44-to-coalition-2/comment-page-95/#comment-1309615
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:23 am
Judgment on overall application to appoint an administrator and KJ’s adjournment application (which we know she already lost)
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:24 am
Marrickville Mauler Posted Thursday, June 21, 2012 at 8:04 am | Permalink
Your pist last night re malcolm turnbull
Rang a friend at hearing tas,
Apparently the caption bill in tbe end got through,
In the h o r
You missed my reply how up set it made me re turnbull as i am hearing im paired
So next the senate,
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:25 am
thanks shellbell
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:25 am
Interesting how the media has suddenly lost interest in the HSU and Thomson now that Jackson’s dodginess can no longer be overlooked.
by confessions on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:28 am
I am currently watching Mrs Bucket (Keeping up Appearances). It is very silly, but still makes me laugh.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:29 am
The second anti-Leveson article published at ABC’s The Drum in as many days.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4082188.html
by confessions on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:30 am
Or dear post
No no had no champagne for brekkie.
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:30 am
confessions
The msm has dropped both the Slipper and Thomson cases like burning hot potatoes. Tells you everything. Surely they will need to report today’s outcome of the HSU case.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:30 am
How advertisers lie.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2162080/Why-McDonalds-burgers-look-like-the-menu-Fast-food-giant-reveals-painstaking-process-advertising-photos.html
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:30 am
Or dear post
No no had no champagne for brekkie. ….
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:30 am
Or dear post
No no had no champagne for brekkie. ….
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:30 am
Or dear post…….
No no had no champagne for brekkie. ….
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:31 am
victoria
The British are masters of the bit of silly to make you laugh. I can still watch Fawlty Towers and laugh lots.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:32 am
guytaur
The episode was about Hyacinth and her new three piece lounge suite. So ridiculous, but funny.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:33 am
http://m.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/i-now-pronounce-you-partner-1-and-partner-2-why-gay-marriage-is-bad-for-us-all/story-e6frgd0x-1226320722485
Ano-ther story by the same .
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:34 am
@PoliticalTicker: DNC Chair: Republicans are on a witch hunt http://t.co/5nJ1MaNa
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:35 am
I don’t know what Newman is trying to achieve by cutting off Labor’s funding.
It won’t work, and it’ll only justify Labor doing nasty things to the LNP when it regains power.
Is he just trying to outright destroy Queensland Labor? Even that won’t work because the ALP members will just form another party that will be just as ruthless, if not more so.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:36 am
Sacre Bleu !! An msm paper printing praise for the PM’s dress sense.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/julia-gillards-fashion-style-isnt-cactus-imf-head-christine-lagarde-says/story-e6frg12c-1226403700987
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:37 am
Once the abc would never of had this type of thing
Once th ey just reported news,
Lets sell it and
Start again
Are news ltd, people paid by the abc.
Will some one good with words write an email to sen conroy and ask the qustion
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:38 am
my say
The advocates of continuing discrimination are in full flight as they see the momentum for equality and the ending of discrimination meaning their succour of hate will come to an inevitable end.
These are people who hide behind the label of Christian when they are anything but Christian.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:38 am
The Australian misunderstands the ABC model by @abcmarkscott – http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-14/scott-journalism/4068996 – hmmm, sometimes i cant tell the difference, can you?
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:39 am
There a few mrs buckets
Arou d at tbe moment arou d the world
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:40 am
confessions
Yesterday Chris Berg of the IPA posted on the Drum an anti Leveson article that got lots of attention. Lots of tweets condemning Bergs view on Leveson.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:41 am
Good morning, Bludgers.
And, world you believe, NewsLtd LieNo 1 still features on the OO’s front page – in video news” rhs near bottom, under the pic of Europe hits back over criticism:European chiefs at the G20 have hit back at Julia Gillard’s criticism of the handling of the Euro crisis.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:42 am